经济预测的一种新思路——模糊系统方法在国民经济运行预测中的应用探索(Ⅰ)

一、目前通行的经济预测理论回顾经济预测的内容十分丰富,包括对整个国民经济综合性的预测和各个部门经济、各个行业、各种经济目标的预测.这种预测,可按部门分类进行,可按行业分类进行,也可按具体经济目标专题分类进行等。预测的结果将来是否成为现实,即预测的误差大小,一方面取决于事物本身的发展进程和人们自觉控制事物发展趋向的程度以及事物发展是否受偶然因素干扰的状况;

查表法设计地震活动模糊预测预警系统

模糊数学方法在地震学研究,特别是在地震预测工作中起到过重要的作用。近年发展起来的模糊查表法是模糊数学中新出现的一种新的模糊系统有效方法,在智能控制、机器学习、序列建模、综合预测中获得了广泛的应用,取得了显著效果。基于此,把该方法引入地震活动趋势预测和预警研究工作中:首先介绍了模糊查表法的方法与原理,然后基于该方法和由最大震级序列形成的多维样本建立了华北地区及主要地震活动带最大震级时间序列的趋势预测和预警模型,并对获得的模型进行了内符检验,最后对建模方法和计算结果进行了详细讨论。综合分析认为,该方法原理简单直观,计算结果稳健,建模与预测精度较高,外推泛化能力较强,可以作为地震趋势预测和预警的一种有效方法。

浑河流域水生态安全状况与安全驱动机制分析

结合浑河流域2011—2020年相关统计数据,综合应用BP网络模型、模糊系统法和压力状态响应-复合生态系统框架模型多角度全方位分析流域的水生态安全状况及其驱动机制。结果表明:流域水生态安全主要受径污比、雨水利用量、生态环境用水占总用水比、单位面积牲畜头数和当年降水量变化的影响,水生态安全的驱动力主要来源于资源和压力子系统;2011—2020年浑河流域水生态安全处于较差(Ⅰ级)状态,但近期表现出逐渐好转趋势。

基于禁忌粒子群的多能源热电联供优化方法研究

为了对混合能源热电联供系统的多目标优化进行求解,采用模糊几何加权将多目标问题转化为单目标问题,充分考虑到混合能源热电联供系统优化算法存在的计算冗余量大、时间长等问题,提出将禁忌粒子群算法应用于混合能源热电联供系统优化求解。通过构造优化过程的禁忌表,阻止搜索过程中出现循环和避免陷入局部最优,进而提高算法的收敛速度和收敛精度。最后以运行费用、环境惩罚费用为子目标函数进行仿真计算,仿真结果表明该算法不仅能够获得最优解,而且大大降低优化求解时间,提高搜索速度。

交通环境振动测试数据中暗振动去除的ANFIS法

轨道交通引起的环境振动测试数据中混杂着暗振动的成分。提出了一种去除暗振动的自适应神经模糊推理系统(adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system,简称ANFIS)法,阐述了其基本原理,给出了该法的具体实现步骤。通过一条列车引起的地面振动加速度时程与一条暗振动加速度时程叠加得到现场实测振动加速度时程,采用提出的ANFIS法及其他几种已有方法对该算例进行了去除暗振动的计算,并进行了对比分析。几种方法计算的时程均方根误差分别为:谱幅值修正法0.414mm/s^2,自功率谱法0.363mm/s^2,自互功率谱法0.261mm/s^2,ANFIS法0.074mm/s^2,可见,ANFIS法均方根误差最小;几种方法计算的加权振级VLz分别为:振动级修正法63.842dB,谱幅值修正法62.894dB,自功率谱法63.859dB,自互功率谱法63.802dB,ANFIS法63.805dB,ANFIS法计算结果与真实交通振动值63.815dB最接近。结果表明,在时程、傅里叶谱、功率谱密度及振动级的计算上,ANFIS法计算结果都与真实交通振动值非常接近,产生的误差比其他已有方法更小。

基于模糊变换的模糊系统及HX方程

本文研究基于模糊变换的模糊系统的构造方法和模糊推理建模法问题。首先,给出了利用单入-单出模糊系统和模糊变换构造双输入-单输出模糊系统的方法,指出这种模糊系统具有泛逼近性,并给出了该模糊系统具有泛逼近性的充分条件。其次,将该模糊系统应用到模糊推理建模法中,得到了一种新的HX方程,泛逼近性定理说明:该HX方程对原系统具有很好的泛逼近性。最后,将得到的新的HX方程应用到自治Lienard系统中,得到了不含一阶导数项的简化HX方程。简化的HX方程将原先逐片求解(m-1)(n-1)个方程,简化为逐片求解m-1个方程,从而降低了计算复杂度。仿真实验说明了新HX方程的有效性。

An Improved Fuzzy Predictive Control Algorithm and Its Application to an Industrial CSTR Process

A finite horizon predictive control algorithm, which applies a saturated feedback control law as its local control law, is presented for nonlinear systems with time-delay subject to input constraints. In the algorithm, N free control moves, a saturated local control law and the terminal weighting matrices are solved by a minimization problem based on linear matrix inequality （LMI） constraints online. Compared with the algorithm with a nonsaturated local law, the presented algorithm improves the performances of the closed-loop systems such as feasibility and optimality. This model predictive control （MPC） algorithm is applied to an industrial continuous stirred tank reactor （CSTR） with explicit input constraint. The simulation results demonstrate that the presented algorithm is effective.

Simulation and Design of Fuzzy Sliding-mode Controller for Ship Heading-tracking

In considering the characteristic of a rudder,the maneuvers of a ship were described by an unmatched uncertain nonlinear mathematic model with unknown virtual control coefficient and parameter uncertainties.In order to solve the uncertainties in the ship heading control,specifically the controller singular and paramount re-estimation problem,a new multiple sliding-mode adaptive fuzzy control algorithm was proposed by combining Nussbaum gain technology,the approximation property of fuzzy logic systems,and a multiple sliding-mode control algorithm.Based on the Lyapunov function,it was proven in theory that the controller made all signals in the nonlinear system of unmatched uncertain ship motion uniformly bounded,with tracking errors converging to zero.Simulation results show that the demonstrated controller design can track a desired course fast and accurately.It also exhibits strong robustness peculiarity in relation to system uncertainties and disturbances.

Fuzzy iterative learning control of electro-hydraulic servo system for SRM direct-drive volume control hydraulic press

A new kind of volume control hydraulic press that combines the advantages of both hydraulic and SRM(switched reluctance motor) driving technology is developed.Considering that the serious dead zone and time-variant nonlinearity exist in the volume control electro-hydraulic servo system,the ILC(iterative learning control) method is applied to tracking the displacement curve of the hydraulic press slider.In order to improve the convergence speed and precision of ILC,a fuzzy ILC algorithm that utilizes the fuzzy strategy to adaptively adjust the iterative learning gains is put forward.The simulation and experimental researches are carried out to investigate the convergence speed and precision of the fuzzy ILC for hydraulic press slider position tracking.The results show that the fuzzy ILC can raise the iterative learning speed enormously,and realize the tracking control of slider displacement curve with rapid response speed and high control precision.In experiment,the maximum tracking error 0.02 V is achieved through 12 iterations only.

Acid-pickling plates and strips speed control system by microwave heating based on self-adaptive fuzzy PID algorithm

Double self-adaptive fuzzy PID algorithm-based control strategy was proposed to construct quasi-cascade control system to control the speed of the acid-pickling process of titanium plates and strips. It is very useful in overcoming non-linear dynamic behavior, uncertain and time-varying parameters, un-modeled dynamics, and couples between the automatic turbulence control (ATC) and the automatic acid temperature control (AATC) with varying parameters during the operation process. The quasi-cascade control system of inner and outer loop self-adaptive fuzzy PID controller was built, which could effectively control the pickling speed of plates and strips. The simulated results and real application indicate that the plates and strips acid pickling speed control system has good performances of adaptively tracking the parameter variations and anti-disturbances, which ensures the match of acid pickling temperature and turbulence of flowing with acid pickling speed, improving the surface quality of plates and strips acid pickling, and energy efficiency.

A fuzzy immune algorithm and its application in solvent tower soft sensor modeling

An improved immune algorithm is proposed in this paper. The problems, such as convergence speed and optimization precision, existing in the basic immune algorithm are well addressed. Besides, a fuzzy adaptive method is presented by using the fuzzy system to realize the adaptive selection of two key parameters （possibility of crossover and mutation）. By comparing and analyzing the results of several benchmark functions, the performance of fuzzy immune algorithm （FIA） is approved. Not only the difficulty of parameters selection is relieved, but also the precision and stability are improved. At last, the FIA is ap- plied to optimization of the structure and parameters in radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） based on an orthogonal sequential method. And the availability of algorithm is proved by applying RBFNN in modeling in soft sensor of solvent tower.

Study of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Controller for the Twin-tank Water Level System

For dealing with large static error due to poor immunity of the traditional fuzzy control, a novel interval type-2 fuzzy control system is proposed. By extending the typical membership functions to interval type-2 membership functions, the proposed control system can efficiently reduce the uncertain disturbance from real environment without increasing the design complexity. The simulation results on the water tank level control system showed that the proposed method succeeded in better static and dynamic control with stronger robust performance than the traditional fuzzy control method.

A neurofuzzy system based on rough set theory and genetic algorithm

This paper presents a hybrid soft computing modeling approach for a neurofuzzy system based on rough set theory and the genetic algorithms (NFRSGA). The fundamental problem of a neurofuzzy system is that when the input dimension increases, the fuzzy rule base increases exponentially. This leads to a huge infrastructure network which results in slow convergence. To solve this problem, rough set theory is used to obtain the reductive rules, which are used as fuzzy rules of the fuzzy system. The number of rules decrease, and each rule does not need all the conditional attribute values. This results in a reduced, or not fully connected, neural network. The structure of the neural network is relatively small and thus the weights to be trained decrease. The genetic algorithm is used to search the optimal discretization of the continuous attributes. The NFRSGA approach has been applied in the practical application of building a soft sensor model for estimating the freezing point of the light diesel fuel in a Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit (FCCU), and satisfying results are obtained.

Novel robust approach for constructing Mamdani-type fuzzy system based on PRM and subtractive clustering algorithm

A novel approach for constructing robust Mamdani fuzzy system was proposed, which consisted of an efficiency robust estimator(partial robust M-regression, PRM) in the parameter learning phase of the initial fuzzy system, and an improved subtractive clustering algorithm in the fuzzy-rule-selecting phase. The weights obtained in PRM, which gives protection against noise and outliers, were incorporated into the potential measure of the subtractive cluster algorithm to enhance the robustness of the fuzzy rule cluster process, and a compact Mamdani-type fuzzy system was established after the parameters in the consequent parts of rules were re-estimated by partial least squares(PLS). The main characteristics of the new approach were its simplicity and ability to construct fuzzy system fast and robustly. Simulation and experiment results show that the proposed approach can achieve satisfactory results in various kinds of data domains with noise and outliers. Compared with D-SVD and ARRBFN, the proposed approach yields much fewer rules and less RMSE values.

Advanced in power control for distributed generation system using cooperative algorithms

To develop efficient power control strategies for a distributed generation system in order to improve the overall system efficiency, we propose a cooperative algorithm to analyze and design the controller, in which elements of conventional mathematical optimization algorithms are combined with adaptive dynamic elements drawn from intelligent control theory. In our design, the sequential quadratic programming algorithm was first utilized to obtain an optimal solution for power distribution among multiple units. Fuzzy system was then developed to implement the optimal strategies on the basis of optimal solution. In addition, parameters of the fuzzy system were adapted via a genetic algorithm. Tbe simulation results illustrate that the methodology described is useful for a range of control system designs.

A natural language user interface for fuzzy scope queries

This paper presents a two-agent framework to build a natural langua g e query interface for IC information system, focusing more on scope queries in a single English sentence. The first agent, parsing agent, syntactically p rocesses and semantically interprets natural language sentence to construct a fu zzy structured query language (SQL) statement. The second agent, defuzzif ying agent, defuzzifies the imprecise part of the fuzzy SQL statement into its e quivalent executable precise SQL statement based on fuzzy rules. The first agent can also actively ask the user some necessary questions when it manages to disa mbiguate the vague retrieval requirements. The adaptive defuzzification approach employed in the defuzzifying agent is discussed in detail. A prototype interface has been implemented to demonstrate the effectiveness.

Threat Assessment Method Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Similarity Measurement Reasoning with Orientation

The aim of this paper is to propose a threat assessment method based on intuitionistic fuzzy measurement reasoning with orientaion to deal with the shortcomings of the method proposed in [Ying-Jie Lei et al., Journal of Electronics and Information Technology 29(9)(2007)2077-2081] and [Dong-Feng Chen et al., Procedia Engineering 29(5)(2012)3302-3306] the ignorance of the influence of the intuitionistic index's orientation on the membership functions in the reasoning, which caused partial information loss in reasoning process. Therefore, we present a 3D expression of intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement, make an analysis of the constraints for intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement, and redefine the intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement. Moreover, in view of the threat assessment problem, we give the system variables of attribute function and assessment index, set up the reasoning system based on intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement with orientation, and design the reasoning rules, reasoning algorithms and fuzzy-resolving algorithms. Finally, through the threat assessment, some typical examples are cited to verify the validity and superiority of the method.

A NEURAL FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

This paper proposes a new neural fuzzy inference system that mainly consists of four parts. The first part is about how to use neural network to express the relation within a fuzzy rule. The second part is the simplification of the first part, and experiments show that these simplifications work. On the contrary to the second part, the third part is the enhancement of the first part and it can be used when the first part cannot work very well in the fuzzy inference algorithm, which would be introduced in the fourth part. Finally, the fourth part "neural fuzzy inference algorithm" is been introduced. It can inference the new membership function of the output based on previous fuzzy rules. The accuracy of the fuzzy inference algorithm is dependent on neural network generalization ability. Even if the generalization ability of the neural network we used is good, we still get inaccurate results since the new coming rule may not be related to any of the previous rules. Experiments show this algorithm is successful in situations which satisfy these conditions.

A research on an energy-saving software for pumping units based on FNN intelligent control

An energy-saving scheme for pumping units via intermission start-stop performance is proposed. Because of the complexity of the oil extraction process, Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) intelligent control is adopted. The structure of the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy neural network model is introduced and modified. FNNs are trained with sample information from oil fields and expert knowledge. Finally, pumping unit energy-saving FNN software, which cuts down power costs substantially, is presented.

Power interconnected system clustering with advanced fuzzy C-mean algorithm

An advanced fuzzy C-mean （FCM） algorithm was proposed for the efficient regional clustering of multi-nodes interconnected systems. Due to various locational prices and regional coherencies for each node and point, modified similarity measure was considered to gather nodes having similar characteristics. The similarity measure was needed to contain locafi0nal prices as well as regional coherency. In order to consider the two properties simultaneously, distance measure of fuzzy C-mean algorithm had to be modified. Regional clustering algorithm for interconnected power systems was designed based on the modified fuzzy C-mean algorithm. The proposed algorithm produces proper classification for the interconnected power system and the results are demonstrated in the example of IEEE 39-bus interconnected electricity system.