鄱阳湖地区耕地变化及其驱动力研究 II.耕地变化驱动力分析

依据鄱阳湖地区1949～2002年耕地面积和社会经济统计数据,运用主成分分析和多元线性回归模型等统计方法分析该地区耕地面积变化的驱动因素。结果表明,在近53年里人口增加和第三产业发展是该地区耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素,粮食需求则是耕地面积增加的主要驱动因素。

灰色系统理论模型在耕地需求量预测中的应用

文章将灰色关联度模型应用于耕地利用变化的驱动力定量分析,并采用灰色系统预测法对耕地需求量进行预测。通过实证分析表明:灰色关联度模型能够较好地选出耕地利用变化的主要驱动力因子,灰色系统预测模型耕地需求量定量预测可行,且精度较高。

城市化进程中耕地利用现状及变化趋势分析——以湖南城步县为例

在国内外土地利用/覆被理论研究的基础上,结合湖南省城步县本地实际情况,根据2001～2009年的数据,全面分析了城步县的土地利用现状,并利用主成分分析法对城步县耕地变化的驱动力进行了分析,对如何在城市化进程中合理使用与保护耕地提出了意见与建议。

陕西省耕地变化驱动力区域差异分析

根据陕西省以及11地市(区)1997-2006年耕地变化和社会经济数据,采用主成分分析法探讨陕西省各地市(区)耕地面积变化的驱动力及其差异。结果表明:陕西省省域耕地面积变化第一驱动力为社会经济因素,第二驱动力为退耕还林政策;根据驱动因子内容划分,咸阳、宝鸡、渭南、榆林、商洛属于产业拉动型,铜川和延安属于投资推动型;西安、汉中和安康属于社会经济综合驱动型;10个地级市均受到退耕还林政策的驱动,杨凌示范区则由于特定的发展时期受到固定资产投资的驱动影响。陕西省11地市(区)耕地变化的第一驱动力存在区域上的差异,第二驱动力差异较小。

我国粮食供给安全与耕地资源变化

实现粮食基本自给、主要依靠自己养活自己是我国政府奉行的粮食安全思想,因而国内耕地的维护工作始终倍受关注,但是结果仍然难尽人意。本文分析了耕地面积,耕地质量,耕地分布重心,耕地改良投入,耕地农用驱动力等多种威胁国家粮食供给安全的要素变化。

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

A Study on Vertical Spatial Transfer of Cultivated Land in Yunnan Province from 1986 to 2008

Based upon ArCGIS,the vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land in Yunnan was studied through referring to three periods of remote sensing data of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change（LUCC） in Yunnan in 1986,1995 and 2000,Digital Elevation Model（DEM） of Yunnan Province and LUCC data in Yunnan from 2000 to 2008.The main factors that promote vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land were analyzed by using SPSS,and the influence of policies and government acts upon the change of cultivated land was clarified.The findings indicated that for Yunnan cultivated land there is a trend that in the vertical direction steep slope areas and gentle slope areas divert into mid-slope areas.The primary factor influencing the vertical spatial transfer of cultivated land was policies and government acts.Also,the gradient of ground,total population and number of agriculture employed persons were also main factors in influencing the change of cultivated land,whose influence was obviously below policies and government acts.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Force of Cultivated Land Quality in Henan Province

The purpose of this study was to find out the spatial-temporal rules and driving force of cultivated land quality in Henan Province in the last ten years. Agricultural land grading factor evaluation was used to evaluate the cultivated land quality of 2002 and 2012 in Henan Province, and to research the change laws. Method of correlation coefficient was employed to select the driving forces affecting cultivated land quality evolution. The results indicated that the cultivated land quality in Henan Province increased slightly in the last ten years in general, and in spatial there were unchanged regions, increased regions and decreased regions. The cultivated land quality in spatial presented the trend of good becoming better, bad becoming worse, which should be highly valued in cultivated land quality protection and management. Land development and consolidation projects had significant contributions to increasing the cultivated land quality. Driving forces between the sudden change regions and gradual change regions were significantly different. The paper concluded that the research on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving force of cultivated land quality based on cultivated land quality evolution had important academic significance and practical value.

Forces Driving Changes in Cultivated Land and Management Countermeasures in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

The Three Gorges project accelerates economic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.This paper aimed to investigate the distribution,changes and features of cultivated land in this area,analyze the forces driving the changes in cultivated land area,and propose the countermeasures for cultivated land management.Transition matrix was used to analyze the features of cultivated land changes,and quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis were adopted to research the driving forces according to the features of cultivated land changes.Cultivated land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area mainly lay to the northwest of the Yangtze River,especially the upper reaches.The areas of cultivated land increased from 1996 to 1999,then decreased from 2000 to 2006,and finally increased again from 2007 to 2009.The important forces driving changes in cultivated land included government policies,employment and food security,increasing construction land,agriculture structure adjustment,land rearrangement,inundation.During cultivated land management,firstly,it is necessary to insist on the principle of cultivated land protection,standardize land exploitation and strictly restrict the transformation of cultivated land into non-farming land.Secondly,land rearrangement must be implemented,which can not only increase the area of the cultivated land,but also improve the quality of the cultivated land.Thirdly,it is feasible to intensify eco-agriculture construction to increase the quantity and quality of cultivated land.Fourthly,it is helpful to improve the traditional agriculture production methods to promote cultivated land quality.Lastly,it is important to propagandize cultivated land protection and realize the enormous pressure of cultivated land shortage,making more people obligated to protect cultivated land.

Land-use Change and Socio-economic Driving Forces of Rural Settlement in China from 1996 to 2005

While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change(LUC) of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.

Research Progress and Discoveries Related to Cultivated Land Abandonment

Using bibliometric methods,this paper analyzes the total amount and keyword composition among 910 studies in the field of farmland abandonment published in the Web of Science database from 1992 to 2019.According to the usage of keywords,existing studies are reviewed from the three aspects of monitoring and mapping,driving forces and influencing factors,and effects assessment and trade-off.The results show that:(1)At present,the extraction and mapping of abandoned farmland data mainly rely on household surveys and remote sensing technology,and combing NDVI time series with spatial information can provide abandoned farmland data with high precision.(2)The driving forces and influencing factors of cultivated land abandonment have been summarized in terms of extent,sources and attributes,respectively.Cultivated land marginalization is the fundamental driving force of cultivated land abandonment,labor migration is the direct driving force,and changes in socio-economic factors are the main driving forces.(3)The environmental effects of cultivated land abandonment are spatially heterogeneous,and temporal-spatial differences,the landscape environment,climate,cultivation and topographic features will all play decisive roles in shaping the ultimate environmental effects.Studies of trade-offs between the impacts of cultivated land abandonment mainly focus on ecosystem service function and value,while the role of spatial background is often ignored.Based on a systematic review of existing literature,this paper suggests that future efforts should carry out large-scale investigations on abandoned cultivated land at the national level,conduct multi-scale research on the driving forces of land abandonment,and conduct trade-off research on the effects of land abandonment based on national conditions.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Cultivated Land Security and Its Drivers:The Case of Yingtan City,China

Maintaining an adequate security level of cultivated land is essential for the healthy and sustainable survival of China’s large and growing population.We constructed a cultivated land security evaluation index system,combined with an improved TOPSIS method by taking into account the balance and stability of quantitative,qualitative,and ecological security.We applied this improved method to an evaluation of the state of cultivated land security and analyzed its spatiotemporal variation in Yingtan City(Jiangxi Province,China)from 1995 to 2015.The drivers of the changes in cultivated land security were investigated via a spatial regression model,which can eliminate the effect of spatial autocorrelation.The results showed that cultivated land security decreased rapidly from 1995 to 2005,although it tended to rise slowly in the subsequent period from 2005 to 2015.Areas deemed to be in a highly dangerous state were mainly distributed in the Yuehu District,while those that were secure appeared primarily in the southern mountainous area,with the area in a generally dangerous state extending to the west in the same direction as urban development.Among the examined drivers,social-economic factors and policy factors significantly influenced the cultivated land security.Our work suggests that government managers should take appropriate measures to improve cultivated land security according to its spatiotemporal variations and the underpinning drivers in this region.