中华邮政储金票研究(1919-1945)续

平版,薄土纸、白纸,中央信托局印刷处印制,全套5种,5角红色、1元绿色、1元绿色点线齿、2元蓝色、5元棕色（图31）。由于林森像储金票与林森像印花税票形似,也与邮票形似,所以有人将储金票误作印花税票使用（图32）,或误作邮票使用（图33）。

Applications of nonferrous metal price volatility to prediction of China's stock market

The aim of the present work is to examine whether the price volatility of nonferrous metal futures can be used to predict the aggregate stock market returns in China. During a sample period from January of 2004 to December of 2011, empirical results show that the price volatility of basic nonferrous metals is a good predictor of value-weighted stock portfolio at various horizons in both in-sample and out-of-sample regressions. The predictive power of metal copper volatility is greater than that of aluminum. The results are robust to alternative measurements of variables and econometric approaches. After controlling several well-known macro pricing variables, the predictive power of copper volatility declines but remains statistically significant. Since the predictability exists only during our sample period, we conjecture that the stock market predictability by metal price volatility is partly driven by commodity financialization.

春节假日 渭南旅游实现“开门红”

刚刚过去的2016年春节,陕西省渭南市接待国内外游客310万人次,同比增长74%;旅游综合收入14.26亿元,同比增长38.2%。

张作霖父子与哈大洋票

张作霖父子即张作霖和张学良父子。1919年张作霖成为东北王,也是在这一年,哈尔滨诞生了哈大洋票,这是在哈埠历史上发行的唯一中国货币,然而看似不相关的两件事,就在这一年产生了交集。

一般黄金投资工具

一般黄金投资工具黄金在世界各地广受欢迎，除了性质独特外，它最吸引人的地方还在于保值。因为不论处于任何政治风暴或经济不景气的情况下，黄金的价值依然屹立不摇，又比其他保值资产更易携带及变卖，所以，黄金成为人人都信赖的财产标志，持有人拥有相当的安全感。黄金...

牛市初期指数基金最赚钱 投资可首选A股标杆指数

自古牛市多曲折。而这些曲曲折折,恰为波段投资者提供了绝佳机会。不过,随着此轮"满仓踏空"带来的强大杀伤力,许多以往只关注个股的波段投资者,开始将目光转向指数基金。其中,作为业内规模最大ETF的嘉实沪深300ETF及其联接基金,受到更多关注。首选A股标杆指数作为中国资本市场的核心指数和标杆指数,沪深300指数成份股净利润在全部A股市场占比88.51%。

只有创新才能拯救互联网金融P2P行业

日前,江苏省互联网金融协会秘书长陆岷峰在由南京财经大学中国区域金融研究中心、金票通主办的＂2016年互联网金融发展趋势预测论坛＂上大胆预言道：＂2016年,区域性的P2P平台逾期、坏账或将集中爆发。＂他说道,尽管风险存在,但不得不承认的是,P2P将继续飞速发展,并成为解决小微企业资金需求的重要供应商。

The institution efficiency of stock price limits： An experimental analysis on the two stocks market with continuous bid

Price limits in product market have been discarded in classic microeconomics. However, price limits affect the trade behavior of the same agent, since agents in the stock market change their trade status frequently. Due to the controversy on the institution effectiveness of the price limits in stock market, this paper design an experimental market with two stocks with continuous bid, in which we investigate the impact of the price limits on the stock market. The results show that the price limits moderate the price volatility within and between the trades periods, thus can stabilize stock price. In addition, price limits, when measured by traditional approach, restrain the fluidity of the market, reduce the volatility of transaction shares and maintain durative of fluidity. While volatility-based fluidity measurements show that the fluidity is enhanced significantly in stock market with price limits.

The degree of IPO underpricing in China

This paper studies the IPO underpricing in the emerging stock market of China. The empirical results reveal that in China, the degree of IPO underpricing measured by first-day return is more than 100%, which is a prevailing phenomenon for almost all IPO firms, regardless of the IPO time and the industry of the firm The degree of IPO underpricing in China is larger than the IPO initial returns documented in almost all the other countries. This considerable underpricing in China can hardly be explained by the information asymmetry theory and agency theory.

Application of a Delay-Difference Model for the Stock Assessment of Southern Atlantic Albacore(Thunnus alalunga)

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-differ- ence model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort （CPUE） data （1975-2011） of the southern Atlantic albacore （Thunnus alalunga） stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises （CVs） were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters a and fl in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. a is more sensitive to CV than fl and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield （MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t） with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approxi- mately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed de- lay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.

The Ecological Economic Model Based on Bounded Rational Agents

From the view of hominine bounded rationalities, this paper analyzes the important relationships between ecology and economics with behavioral finance. With a different focus, this paper adopts a new conceptualization of stock to show how this conceptualization leads to a new measure of the interaction between ecology and economics, based on bounded rational agents. The hierarchical structure of ecological economic system is described with a multi-agent sinmlation program. This paper also develops an ecological economic model, in which behavioral finance theories are applied to simulating the dynamics system. With the model this paper confirms, that macro-level indicalors of sustainability are predictably influenced by behaviors of bounded rational agents at the micro-level, We discuss the significance of these findings in order to better understand the ecological-economic system based on behavioral finance.

Financial System Design and Firm Investment in Malaysian Listed Firms

This paper investigates the impact of financial system design on investment. It is aimed to provide additional empirical evidence based on the original paper by Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic （2002）. The firm-level data of Malaysian companies between 2000 and 2007 are used. This paper also extends the previous literatures by using a panel data methodology, applying a random-effects estimator. The findings show that： First, the growth investment of firms are positively related to the development of the banking system but negatively related to the capital market. These firms substitute equity for debt associated with an increase in stock market activity （more long-term financing） and debt for equity in the presence of an increase in banking activity （less long-term financing）. Second, the internal growth financing, short-term growth financing and long-term growth financing have shown a significant impact on growth investment by firms. It implies that these financing constraints are complements to the development of banking system and stock market activity. Therefore, well-developed stock markets facilitate long-term financing, whereas a well-developed banking sector facilitates short-term financing. It is recommended that policy makers stress more on banking system for short-term financing and capital market for long-term financing.

An Empirical Test of Optimism Bias in Capital Budgeting Decisions

Behavioral finance is a field that is scrutinizing the adequacy of traditional financial theories using insights from the disciplines of psychology and sociology. Many studies within its realm test the stock market behaviors, and behavioral phenomena are still to be tested in the area of corporate finance. This study aims to contribute to the behavioral corporate finance literature by a research in one of the psychological phenomena affecting the decision makers＇ abilities to reach conclusions rationally. In this study, it is aimed to investigate one of the biases, namely, the optimism bias in corporate capital budgeting decisions. Optimism in decision making can be associated with estimating lower costs and higher revenues. Thus, by assessing the forecasts of decision makers, the existence of optimism in their decisions is tried to be seen. This study aims at contributing to the literature in that it is conducted in an emerging country like Turkey.

Market Structure, Liquidity and the Performance of Emerging Equity Markets

Recent studies analyzing the liquidity of emerging equity markets （EEM） focus mainly on two independent variables： （1） the turnover ratio and （2） value of equity traded. They ignore the impact of the market concentration of stock traded which could generate price distortion/manipulation. This study empirically estimates the impact of market structure （concentration） and liquidity （turnover ratio） on equity performance （price/returns） of 19 EEM. We use panel data for the period 1992-2000 and least square dummy variable regression technique that measure fixed effects and the dynamics of adjustment. The results show the significance of both independent variables. Liquidity favours investment, and market concentration suggests the potential for market/price manipulation that requires regulatory policies. These results indicate success of reform policies aimed at capital deepening to improve efficient capital allocation and provide profitable investment opportunities.

What defines non-outstanding shares transfer premium in China？

We study the sample of 311 non-outstanding shares transfers from 2003 to 2004. The object of this study is to determine the extent to which premium can be explained by financial factors of firms. The intrinsic value of transferred shares with control right is different from the others. We find that the larger percent of share transferred, the higher premium will be paid. Current liability ratio interpreting the premium of non-outstanding shares transfers is negative related to short term debt. Price ratio can determine the premium level when the ratio of transfer share under 30 percent

The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on Emerging Markets： Quantitative Identification of Crisis in Continent-based Regions

This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, in the context of an influence of the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The 17 emerging stock markets and, for comparison, the U.S. stock market are investigated. A statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets, based on monthly logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes, is employed. The analyzed sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013. As there is no unanimity in the literature about the crisis periods in the continent-based regions, a formal statistical identification of crises is worthwhile to conduct. Furthermore, the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period in the context of contagion is examining. To address this issue, both standard contemporaneous cross-correlations and volatility-adjusted cross-correlations are applied. The results are consistent with the literature and confn＇m that tests for contagion based on cross-market correlations are problematic due to the bias introduced by changing volatility in market returns. As contagion can be confused with globalization, the globalization tests in the group of international investigated markets are employed. The results generally do not confirm a global world market integration effect, i.e. there is no reason to reject the research hypothesis of no globalization during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Monthly Seasonality in the Top 50 Australian Stocks

We studied monthly seasonality in the top 50 Australian stocks across different industry sectors. Unlike other Australian studies, we examined monthly seasonality using stock return data of individual companies for the period of January 1980 through to August 2010. We found that stock returns of over half of the 50 companies are significantly positive in April and December, and most companies have low stock returns in October. Seven companies have higher returns in April than in other months of the year, most of which are banking and financial services companies, while six companies have lower returns in February than in other months. Although Australia has a July-June taxation cycle, we found that only three stocks have a July anomaly. The findings are inconsistent with the tax-loss selling hypothesis and other studies on the Australian equity markets （e.g., Brown, Keim, Kleidon, ＆ Marsh, 1983; Brailsford ＆ Easton, 1991）. However, our findings are generally consistent with Bonin and Moses （1974） on individual stock seasonality

Factors Influencing Retail Investors＇ Attitude Towards Investing in Equity Stocks： A Study in Tamil Nadu

Research in behavioral finance is comparatively less in India, when compared to other foreign countries. Globalization of financial markets has been increasing the retail investors＇ community over the past two decades by providing a wide variety of market and investment options. However, it makes much more complex in their investment decisions process. This paper aims at identifying the factors influencing the retail investor＇s attitude. This paper develops a modified questionnaire. The average value of the five top highly influential factors according to the sample retail investors＇ were Investors＇ tolerance for risk, strength of the Indian economy, media focus on the stock market, political stability and finally government policy towards business. Four factors were given lowest priority or which had low influence on the attitude of the retail investors investing in equity stocks. Stories of successful investors was considered to be the lowest influencing factors among the four, get rich quick philosophy, information available on internet, cost cutting by companies.

Post-issuance related party transaction： Evidence of tunneling

The distortion of corporate financing in China stock markets is not only reflected as the significant increase of leverage after rights offering, but also the large amount of post-issuance related party transactions between the parent SOEs and their subsidiaries. This paper examines the three channels, including accounts receivables, direct loan and loan guarantee. Empirical findings suggest that high frequency of these transactions after rights offering, and the amount of transactions increase as ownership concentration increases, which support the argument of tunneling.

Relationship Between Working Capital Management and Profitability in Turkey Industrial Listed Companies

The present study investigated the effect of working capital management component on corporate profitability. A sample of 106 firms listed on Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange （BIST） for the period of 2003-2013 was used. The secondary data for analysis were taken from Bloomberg＇s Database. The present study aims to explore the effect of working capital management components on corporate profitability. We observed that there was a negative correlation between gross operating profit and accounts receivables （A/R）. We also found that there was a positive correlation between gross operating profit and number of days inventory. But they did not affect the profitability of firms in the study at a significant level.