In this paper, a stochastic model of plague is first studied by subspace identification. First, the discrete model of plague is obtained based on the classical model. The corresponding stochastic model is proposed for...In this paper, a stochastic model of plague is first studied by subspace identification. First, the discrete model of plague is obtained based on the classical model. The corresponding stochastic model is proposed for the existence of stochastic disturbances. Second, for the model, the parameter matrices and noise intensity are obtained. Finally, the simulations of the model show that the subspace identification is more precise than least square method.展开更多
Based upon the stochastic resonance theory,the formation mechanism of 100-kyr cycles in climate system is numerically studied in the perspective of stochastic dynamics.In this study,firstly we combine the idealized al...Based upon the stochastic resonance theory,the formation mechanism of 100-kyr cycles in climate system is numerically studied in the perspective of stochastic dynamics.In this study,firstly we combine the idealized albedo model with the geological evidence and observation in climate system to construct a new albedo model.Secondly,a bistable nonlinear system is constructed by introducing the albedo model into zero-dimensional energy balance model.Finally,based on this new system,with the solar radiation cycles and stochastic perturbation simultaneously taken into account,the variation of 100-kyr cycles is analyzed by numerical simulations.The results show that,when the noise intensity reaches a certain value,the stochastic resonance can be triggered.However,the noise intensity in this level does not exist in the actual climate system.In order to explain the formation mechanism of 100-kyr glacial-interglacial cycles forced by the weak solar radiation cycles,besides the solar radiation stochastic perturbation,the stochastic dynamic effects of the other "non-solar" radiation stochastic perturbation in the climate change processes should also be considered.The stochastic dynamic simulations taking the two types of stochastic perturbation into consideration show that,when the two types of appropriately observable stochastic perturbation are introduced,the stochastic resonance also can be generated.In this situation,the contribution rate of solar radiation stochastic perturbation is about 38%,which proves the importance of solar radiation stochastic perturbation in the formation of 100-kyr climate cycles.展开更多
基金Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （NSFC） under Grant 61374137 and the State Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry Technology and Research Center of National Metallurgical Automation Fundamental Research Funds （2013ZCX02-03）.
文摘In this paper, a stochastic model of plague is first studied by subspace identification. First, the discrete model of plague is obtained based on the classical model. The corresponding stochastic model is proposed for the existence of stochastic disturbances. Second, for the model, the parameter matrices and noise intensity are obtained. Finally, the simulations of the model show that the subspace identification is more precise than least square method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41205083)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘Based upon the stochastic resonance theory,the formation mechanism of 100-kyr cycles in climate system is numerically studied in the perspective of stochastic dynamics.In this study,firstly we combine the idealized albedo model with the geological evidence and observation in climate system to construct a new albedo model.Secondly,a bistable nonlinear system is constructed by introducing the albedo model into zero-dimensional energy balance model.Finally,based on this new system,with the solar radiation cycles and stochastic perturbation simultaneously taken into account,the variation of 100-kyr cycles is analyzed by numerical simulations.The results show that,when the noise intensity reaches a certain value,the stochastic resonance can be triggered.However,the noise intensity in this level does not exist in the actual climate system.In order to explain the formation mechanism of 100-kyr glacial-interglacial cycles forced by the weak solar radiation cycles,besides the solar radiation stochastic perturbation,the stochastic dynamic effects of the other "non-solar" radiation stochastic perturbation in the climate change processes should also be considered.The stochastic dynamic simulations taking the two types of stochastic perturbation into consideration show that,when the two types of appropriately observable stochastic perturbation are introduced,the stochastic resonance also can be generated.In this situation,the contribution rate of solar radiation stochastic perturbation is about 38%,which proves the importance of solar radiation stochastic perturbation in the formation of 100-kyr climate cycles.
