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云南省新平县滑坡预警区划研究 被引量:7
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作者 温铭生 王连俊 +3 位作者 李铁锋 徐为 陈红旗 吴菲 《水文地质工程地质》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2010年第4期103-106,110,共5页
以新平县为研究区,采用确定性系数(CF)方法分析滑坡与地质环境因子各区段(类型)之间的敏感性关系,得出各因子不同区段(类型)的敏感性大小,并运用Logistic回归分析方法建立预警区划模型,认为坡度、岩组、年均降雨量、高程、构造等五个因... 以新平县为研究区,采用确定性系数(CF)方法分析滑坡与地质环境因子各区段(类型)之间的敏感性关系,得出各因子不同区段(类型)的敏感性大小,并运用Logistic回归分析方法建立预警区划模型,认为坡度、岩组、年均降雨量、高程、构造等五个因子是影响研究区滑坡发生的敏感性因子,建立Logistic概率预测模型,并对研究区进行五级预警区划,区划结果对该区预警工作有积极的指导意义。 展开更多
关键词 滑坡 确定性系数 LOGISTIC回归 敏感性因子 预警区划
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湖南雪峰山地区降雨型滑坡灾害临界雨量及预警区划分析 被引量:4
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作者 李明波 王心悦 +1 位作者 陈植华 向丽 《甘肃科学学报》 2019年第6期62-67,共6页
基于湖南省1∶5万地质灾害详细调查成果数据及3000余处自动雨量站逐小时雨量资料,判别和筛选了雪峰山地区降雨型滑坡灾害589处(2013—2017年)。针对滑坡灾害数据的完整程度采用合理的计算方法确定降雨致灾概率,得出不同时效内滑坡灾害... 基于湖南省1∶5万地质灾害详细调查成果数据及3000余处自动雨量站逐小时雨量资料,判别和筛选了雪峰山地区降雨型滑坡灾害589处(2013—2017年)。针对滑坡灾害数据的完整程度采用合理的计算方法确定降雨致灾概率,得出不同时效内滑坡灾害的临界雨量;同时建立滑坡灾害敏感性等级与临界雨量的相互关系,分析不同临界雨量状态下不同敏感性等级区域内滑坡灾害发生的可能性,确定雪峰山地区滑坡灾害预警区划等级。研究结果不仅为雪峰山地区滑坡灾害的空间预测提供了资料和参考,而且对建立由面到点的地质灾害精细化预警预报方法具有重要的指导意义。 展开更多
关键词 降雨型滑坡 临界雨量 预警区划 雪峰山地区 湖南省
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黄土高原山洪泥石流气象预警区划方法初探
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作者 汪洁 霍艾迪 +7 位作者 王磊 李英豪 李则成 徐雪峤 葛颂 闵思贤 李涛 韦红 《水土保持》 2016年第2期17-27,共11页
黄土高原地质灾害频发,山洪泥石流危害严重,已成为影响当地国计民生的很大障碍。通过详细的野外地质灾害调查,利用多年的地质灾害资料和气象资料,分析了研究区地质灾害的时空分布特点及其与降雨的关系,发现山洪泥石流灾害的发生特点与... 黄土高原地质灾害频发,山洪泥石流危害严重,已成为影响当地国计民生的很大障碍。通过详细的野外地质灾害调查,利用多年的地质灾害资料和气象资料,分析了研究区地质灾害的时空分布特点及其与降雨的关系,发现山洪泥石流灾害的发生特点与降雨量分布的关系非常密切。在对山洪泥石流发育机理和规律进行深入分析的基础上,结合山洪泥石流等地质灾害发生时的降雨资料,确定了地质灾害气象预警临界降雨量阈值,在此基础上进行地质灾害气象预警区划,分区建立了基于降雨量观测和预报的山洪泥石流气象预报模式。通过在黄土高原山洪泥石流区应用检验,效果良好。 展开更多
关键词 山洪泥石流 发育规律 气象预警区划 陕西黄陵县
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森林火险区划预警的研究进展
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作者 任洪 刘家豪 +1 位作者 包明伟 刘建祥 《农业与技术》 2024年第8期58-60,共3页
森林作为人类发展的重要自然资源,对社会经济的可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。但是随着全球气温的不断升高,森林火灾的发生频率越来越高,森林火灾每年造成大量的人员伤亡,数千公顷的森林烧毁,对生态环境保护构成巨大威胁。因此,对森林... 森林作为人类发展的重要自然资源,对社会经济的可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。但是随着全球气温的不断升高,森林火灾的发生频率越来越高,森林火灾每年造成大量的人员伤亡,数千公顷的森林烧毁,对生态环境保护构成巨大威胁。因此,对森林火灾进行火险区划预警就变得十分重要。本文从林火驱动因子的确定包括气象因子、地形因子、植被可燃物因子、人为因素等,火险区划方法的选择,林火发生大国的火险系统应用等3个方面综述国内外森林火险区划预警发展研究现状和应用情况,为森林防火研究和林火管理工作提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 森林火灾 环境保护 驱动因子 区划预警
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Debris Flow Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of NonStructural Strategies in Taiwan 被引量:6
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作者 CHEN Su-Chin WU Chun-Yi 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第2期308-322,共15页
Taiwan has disadvantageous conditions for sediment-related disasters such as debris flows. The construction of engineering structures is an effective strategy for reducing debris flow disasters. However, it is impossi... Taiwan has disadvantageous conditions for sediment-related disasters such as debris flows. The construction of engineering structures is an effective strategy for reducing debris flow disasters. However, it is impossible to construct engineering structures in all debris flow areas in a short period. Therefore, the government aims to gradually develop non-structural preventive strategies, including evacuation planning, debris flow disaster emergency action system, disaster resistant community program, recruitment of debris flow professional volunteers, debris flow warning systems, and land management strategies, to mitigate disasters and secure the safety of residents. This review describes the processes and effects of recent debris flow non-structural preventive strategies in Taiwan. The average number of casualties prior to the year 2000 was far higher than the corresponding number after 2000 because debris flow evacuation drills have been promoted since 2000 and the debris flow disaster emergency action system has been progressively improved since 2002. Furthermore, the changes in risks caused by debris flow disasters before and after the implementation of non-structural preventive strategies were used to explain the effectiveness of these strategies at the community level. The results showed that softwarebased non-structural preventive strategies can effectively reduce the casualties caused by debris flows at both the national and community levels. 展开更多
关键词 Debris flow Warning systems Evacuation planning Rainfall threshold Preventive strategies
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Non-Structural Mitigation Programs For Sediment-Related Disasters after the Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan 被引量:6
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作者 CHEN Su-Chin HUANG Bo-Tsung 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第3期291-300,共10页
Following the Chichi Earthquake (ML=7.3) in 1999, sediment-related disasters, such as landslides and debris flows, have become more frequent in Taiwan. Because engineering structures cannot be fully and rapidly empl... Following the Chichi Earthquake (ML=7.3) in 1999, sediment-related disasters, such as landslides and debris flows, have become more frequent in Taiwan. Because engineering structures cannot be fully and rapidly emplaeed, the government has initiated non-structural hazard mitigation programs. Initially, community debris flow evacuation drills were promoted in 2000. Typhoon Toraji caused numerous debris flow events in July 2001, and some communities evacuated according to the drills, significantly reducing the numbers of possible casualties. Based on that result, the government expanded the program for evacuation drills. Secondly, the early warning system created after the Chichi Earthquake will prevent many potential future casualties. Rainfall threshold values for debris flow warnings in different areas are determined from information received from local weather stations and modified for local geomorphologic situations. Real- time information is gradually being integrated to create a debris flow disaster warning system, the goal of which is to provide warnings to zones in which debris flows are likely. The warning system was launched in 2005 and has two levels of alarms: yellow and red. The final, red alarm triggers enforced evacuation. Overall, the decrease in casualties from debris flows during the decade after the Chichi Earthquake is not the result of a decrease in number or severity of sediment related disasters, but is more directly related to the gradually improved early warning and evacuation system. However, the compound hazards resulting from Typhoon Morakotin 2009 remind us of the ongoing need for improving the existing mitigation system. 展开更多
关键词 Warning system evacuation and shelter rainfall threshold value for debris flow ChichiEarthquake
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