土壤温度反映土壤的热状态,对地表能量交换起重要作用,是影响土壤水热再分配的关键性因素。高寒山区水热传输复杂且特殊,准确模拟土壤温度对于研究高寒山区水循环过程有重要意义。CLM 5.0(Community Land Model 5.0)是CLM模式的最新版本...土壤温度反映土壤的热状态,对地表能量交换起重要作用,是影响土壤水热再分配的关键性因素。高寒山区水热传输复杂且特殊,准确模拟土壤温度对于研究高寒山区水循环过程有重要意义。CLM 5.0(Community Land Model 5.0)是CLM模式的最新版本,是目前国际上最先进的陆面过程模式之一。本文基于黑河流域上游9个典型观测站实测数据,对CLM 5.0的土壤温度模拟性能进行评估。结果表明:(1)CLM 5.0可以很好地模拟土壤温度在高寒山区的年内变化和年际变化,但模拟值相较实测值普遍存在低估。(2)CLM 5.0对土壤温度的模拟性能在高寒草甸略高于草地,土壤浅层优于深层。(3)CLM 5.0模拟的土壤温度在生长季和非生长季均呈现低估,且非生长季低估更明显;在冻结期和非冻结期均为低估,且冻结期低估更明显。(4)非生长季土壤温度的明显低估主要是冻结期土壤温度的明显低估引起,CLM 5.0中土壤冰的模拟偏差是主要原因。以上结论可为陆面过程模式CLM 5.0在高寒山区的应用及改进提供科学依据。展开更多
陆面模式CLM(Community Land Model)是目前国际上发展较为完善并被广泛应用的陆面过程模式。本文使用中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所位于青藏高原东部的若尔盖高原湿地生态系统研究站的观测资料,对CLM3.0版本及CLM4.0版本在上述地...陆面模式CLM(Community Land Model)是目前国际上发展较为完善并被广泛应用的陆面过程模式。本文使用中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所位于青藏高原东部的若尔盖高原湿地生态系统研究站的观测资料,对CLM3.0版本及CLM4.0版本在上述地区的模拟性能进行了检验与对比。通过比较观测值与模拟值,验证了模式在高原季节性冻土地区的适用性,发现CLM4.0较CLM3.0在模拟结果上有了一定提高。CLM4.0加入了未冻水参数化方案,使模式可以模拟到冬季土壤冻结后存留的未冻水,显著增加了冻融期间土壤含水量的模拟,同时减小了土壤含冰量的模拟值。并因此增大了模拟的冻土热容量,减小了热导率,使冻融期间土壤温度的模拟也有了一定改善。但是模拟中也发现对于较深层土壤,温度模拟值在冻融期间较观测显著偏低。另外,在消融(冻结)过程阶段CLM4.0模拟的土壤含水量骤增(骤降)的时间均较观测提前。消融过程、冻结过程阶段模拟时间偏短,而完全冻结、完全消融阶段模拟时间偏长。因此CLM对于高原冻土地区的模拟仍是其需要重点改进的地方之一。展开更多
地表温度是影响陆-气之间能量和物质交换的重要地球物理变量,对调节全球气候系统能量循环起着不可或缺的作用。为探讨美国国家大气研究中心(The National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)公共陆面模式(Community Land Model,CLM...地表温度是影响陆-气之间能量和物质交换的重要地球物理变量,对调节全球气候系统能量循环起着不可或缺的作用。为探讨美国国家大气研究中心(The National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)公共陆面模式(Community Land Model,CLM)对地表温度的模拟能力,利用1948—2004年美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)大气强迫场和NCAR陆面模式CLM3.0、CLM3.5、CLM4.0和CLM4.5对内蒙古地区1981—2004年的地表温度进行off-line模拟,并与观测地面温度资料进行对比。结果表明:NCAR/CLM系列陆面模式模拟地表温度都能较好地再现内蒙古地表温度的时空变化特征,与台站观测有着较好的一致性,其中CLM4.5在内蒙古地区模拟能力最好,与观测的相关系数最高、平均偏差和均方根误差都最小,这主要得益于CLM4.5对粗糙度计算的改进;不同版本CLM模拟地表温度普遍较观测数值偏低,在冬季各版本CLM模拟结果与观测值之间的平均偏差达到最小,在夏季的偏差增大,尤其是在东部地区,夏季偏差3℃以上,说明对最高地表温度的模拟能力东部和中部地区明显低于西部地区;西部地区各个版本差别并不如东部和中部地区明显,这与CLM4.0和CLM4.5改进了雪模式和水文过程有关。综上,CLM4.0和CLM4.5在内蒙古地区有较好的适用性,且模拟值均低于实测地表温度,冬季偏差较小,夏季偏差增大,东部地区偏差大于中部和西部地区。展开更多
Runoff is a major component of the water cycle, and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions. This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Mod...Runoff is a major component of the water cycle, and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions. This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model （DTVGM） into the Community Land Model （CLM 3.5）, replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980-2005 and validated for the period 2006-2010. Then, future runoff （2010-2100） was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） emission scenarios. After that, the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed, and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） analysis method. Finally, the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated. The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010-2100, whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario, with a slow increase after the 2050s. Additionally, the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale, indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods. The longest dry period was approximately 15 years （2040-2055） for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years （2045-2070） for the RCP 4.5 scenario. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045. Under these scenarios, the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe. Therefore, adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.展开更多
将稳定同位素效应引入CLM(Community Land Model),并对巴西马瑙斯站在平衡年的稳定水同位素的逐日变化进行模拟和分析.结果表明:降水、水汽和地表径流中1δ8O存在明显的季节变化,并与相应的水量存在显著的负相关关系,但凝结物中δ18O与...将稳定同位素效应引入CLM(Community Land Model),并对巴西马瑙斯站在平衡年的稳定水同位素的逐日变化进行模拟和分析.结果表明:降水、水汽和地表径流中1δ8O存在明显的季节变化,并与相应的水量存在显著的负相关关系,但凝结物中δ18O与地面凝结量存在显著的正相关关系,蒸发水汽中1δ8O与蒸发量之间无显著的相关关系.受土壤贮水削峰功能的影响,表层土壤和根区水中1δ8O的季节变化全无.植被层蒸发水汽中稳定同位素的丰度与大气的干湿程度存在密切联系:当降水量少时,大气干燥,植被层的蒸发较少,植被蒸发中1δ8O较高;当降水量较大时,空气湿润,植被层的蒸发量较大,蒸发中1δ8O则较低.植被蒸腾中1δ8O的变化与源区水体中1δ8O的变化保持一致,尤其是与根区水中的1δ8O.由于地下径流直接源自根区水的补充,因此,地下径流中1δ8O等于根区水中的δ18O.模拟结果还显示,降水MWL(大气水线)的梯度项和常数项均比全球平均MWL略偏小.尽管主要来自降水的贡献,但地表径流和植被层水体的MWLs与降水MWL存在较大的差异,这一方面与两类水体在蒸发过程中的稳定同位素的富集作用有关,另一方面与CLM模拟的水量有关.大气水汽线与降水的MWL的梯度值相近,说明大气水汽与降水近似处于稳定同位素平衡状态.另外,模拟的地面的凝结线与植被层的凝结线均与全球大气水线相近,且具有非常高相关程度,说明CLM的模拟是合理的.展开更多
in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different conv...in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different convection schemes is analyzed in this study, based on a series of short- term experiments.The model is driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 25 km.The convection schemes employed are： Emanuel; Grell; Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean; Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean; and Tiedtke. The simulated mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December-February-January and June-July-August are compared against observation. In general, better performance of Emanuel is found both for temperature and precipitation, and in both seasons. Thus, the model physics of CLM and Emanuel for the land surface processes and convection, respectively, are recommended for further application of RegCM4 over the China region. The de^ciencies that remain in the model arealso outlined and discussed.展开更多
为了避免单个滤波器在收敛速度与稳态误差上相互制约,从而导致系统性能降低的问题,本文采用凸组合最小均方算法(Combined Least Mean Square,CLMS),将快速滤波器和慢速滤波器并联使用,同时为进一步改善CLMS算法的性能,对已有的变步长凸...为了避免单个滤波器在收敛速度与稳态误差上相互制约,从而导致系统性能降低的问题,本文采用凸组合最小均方算法(Combined Least Mean Square,CLMS),将快速滤波器和慢速滤波器并联使用,同时为进一步改善CLMS算法的性能,对已有的变步长凸组合最小均方算法(Variable Step-size Convex Combination of LMS,VSCLMS)做出改进,提出了一种新的VSCLMS算法.在该算法中,对快速滤波器选用以最小均方权值偏差(Minimization of Mean Square Weight Error,MMSWE)为准则的按步分析的变步长滤波器;对慢速滤波器采用以稳态最小均方误差(Least Mean Square,LMS)为准则的固定步长滤波器.通过理论分析与仿真实验表明,该算法能够在噪声、时变以及非平稳的环境下保持较好的随动性能,且在各个阶段均保持良好的收敛性,与传统的CLMS、VSCLMS算法相比,不仅具有更快的收敛速度,而且拥有稳定的均方性能和较优的跟踪性能,为自适应滤波算法的研究提供了一条可行途径.展开更多
文摘陆面模式CLM(Community Land Model)是目前国际上发展较为完善并被广泛应用的陆面过程模式。本文使用中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所位于青藏高原东部的若尔盖高原湿地生态系统研究站的观测资料,对CLM3.0版本及CLM4.0版本在上述地区的模拟性能进行了检验与对比。通过比较观测值与模拟值,验证了模式在高原季节性冻土地区的适用性,发现CLM4.0较CLM3.0在模拟结果上有了一定提高。CLM4.0加入了未冻水参数化方案,使模式可以模拟到冬季土壤冻结后存留的未冻水,显著增加了冻融期间土壤含水量的模拟,同时减小了土壤含冰量的模拟值。并因此增大了模拟的冻土热容量,减小了热导率,使冻融期间土壤温度的模拟也有了一定改善。但是模拟中也发现对于较深层土壤,温度模拟值在冻融期间较观测显著偏低。另外,在消融(冻结)过程阶段CLM4.0模拟的土壤含水量骤增(骤降)的时间均较观测提前。消融过程、冻结过程阶段模拟时间偏短,而完全冻结、完全消融阶段模拟时间偏长。因此CLM对于高原冻土地区的模拟仍是其需要重点改进的地方之一。
文摘地表温度是影响陆-气之间能量和物质交换的重要地球物理变量,对调节全球气候系统能量循环起着不可或缺的作用。为探讨美国国家大气研究中心(The National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)公共陆面模式(Community Land Model,CLM)对地表温度的模拟能力,利用1948—2004年美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)大气强迫场和NCAR陆面模式CLM3.0、CLM3.5、CLM4.0和CLM4.5对内蒙古地区1981—2004年的地表温度进行off-line模拟,并与观测地面温度资料进行对比。结果表明:NCAR/CLM系列陆面模式模拟地表温度都能较好地再现内蒙古地表温度的时空变化特征,与台站观测有着较好的一致性,其中CLM4.5在内蒙古地区模拟能力最好,与观测的相关系数最高、平均偏差和均方根误差都最小,这主要得益于CLM4.5对粗糙度计算的改进;不同版本CLM模拟地表温度普遍较观测数值偏低,在冬季各版本CLM模拟结果与观测值之间的平均偏差达到最小,在夏季的偏差增大,尤其是在东部地区,夏季偏差3℃以上,说明对最高地表温度的模拟能力东部和中部地区明显低于西部地区;西部地区各个版本差别并不如东部和中部地区明显,这与CLM4.0和CLM4.5改进了雪模式和水文过程有关。综上,CLM4.0和CLM4.5在内蒙古地区有较好的适用性,且模拟值均低于实测地表温度,冬季偏差较小,夏季偏差增大,东部地区偏差大于中部和西部地区。
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB956204)We acknowledge the modeling groups for providing the data for analysis,the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison(PCMDI)the World Climate Research Programme’s(WCRP’s)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for collecting and archiving the model output and organizing the data analysis
文摘Runoff is a major component of the water cycle, and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions. This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model （DTVGM） into the Community Land Model （CLM 3.5）, replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980-2005 and validated for the period 2006-2010. Then, future runoff （2010-2100） was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） emission scenarios. After that, the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed, and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） analysis method. Finally, the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated. The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010-2100, whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario, with a slow increase after the 2050s. Additionally, the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale, indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods. The longest dry period was approximately 15 years （2040-2055） for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years （2045-2070） for the RCP 4.5 scenario. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045. Under these scenarios, the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe. Therefore, adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.
文摘将稳定同位素效应引入CLM(Community Land Model),并对巴西马瑙斯站在平衡年的稳定水同位素的逐日变化进行模拟和分析.结果表明:降水、水汽和地表径流中1δ8O存在明显的季节变化,并与相应的水量存在显著的负相关关系,但凝结物中δ18O与地面凝结量存在显著的正相关关系,蒸发水汽中1δ8O与蒸发量之间无显著的相关关系.受土壤贮水削峰功能的影响,表层土壤和根区水中1δ8O的季节变化全无.植被层蒸发水汽中稳定同位素的丰度与大气的干湿程度存在密切联系:当降水量少时,大气干燥,植被层的蒸发较少,植被蒸发中1δ8O较高;当降水量较大时,空气湿润,植被层的蒸发量较大,蒸发中1δ8O则较低.植被蒸腾中1δ8O的变化与源区水体中1δ8O的变化保持一致,尤其是与根区水中的1δ8O.由于地下径流直接源自根区水的补充,因此,地下径流中1δ8O等于根区水中的δ18O.模拟结果还显示,降水MWL(大气水线)的梯度项和常数项均比全球平均MWL略偏小.尽管主要来自降水的贡献,但地表径流和植被层水体的MWLs与降水MWL存在较大的差异,这一方面与两类水体在蒸发过程中的稳定同位素的富集作用有关,另一方面与CLM模拟的水量有关.大气水汽线与降水的MWL的梯度值相近,说明大气水汽与降水近似处于稳定同位素平衡状态.另外,模拟的地面的凝结线与植被层的凝结线均与全球大气水线相近,且具有非常高相关程度,说明CLM的模拟是合理的.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[41375104]the Climate Change Specific Fund of China[CCSF201509]
文摘in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different convection schemes is analyzed in this study, based on a series of short- term experiments.The model is driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 25 km.The convection schemes employed are： Emanuel; Grell; Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean; Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean; and Tiedtke. The simulated mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December-February-January and June-July-August are compared against observation. In general, better performance of Emanuel is found both for temperature and precipitation, and in both seasons. Thus, the model physics of CLM and Emanuel for the land surface processes and convection, respectively, are recommended for further application of RegCM4 over the China region. The de^ciencies that remain in the model arealso outlined and discussed.
文摘为了避免单个滤波器在收敛速度与稳态误差上相互制约,从而导致系统性能降低的问题,本文采用凸组合最小均方算法(Combined Least Mean Square,CLMS),将快速滤波器和慢速滤波器并联使用,同时为进一步改善CLMS算法的性能,对已有的变步长凸组合最小均方算法(Variable Step-size Convex Combination of LMS,VSCLMS)做出改进,提出了一种新的VSCLMS算法.在该算法中,对快速滤波器选用以最小均方权值偏差(Minimization of Mean Square Weight Error,MMSWE)为准则的按步分析的变步长滤波器;对慢速滤波器采用以稳态最小均方误差(Least Mean Square,LMS)为准则的固定步长滤波器.通过理论分析与仿真实验表明,该算法能够在噪声、时变以及非平稳的环境下保持较好的随动性能,且在各个阶段均保持良好的收敛性,与传统的CLMS、VSCLMS算法相比,不仅具有更快的收敛速度,而且拥有稳定的均方性能和较优的跟踪性能,为自适应滤波算法的研究提供了一条可行途径.
