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A Probing Model of Secret Key Generation Based on Channel Autocorrelation Function
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作者 Xia Enjun Hu Binjie Shen Qiaoqiao 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第6期163-175,共13页
Secret key generation(SKG)is a promising solution to the problem of wireless communications security.As the first step of SKG,channel probing affects it significantly.Although there have been some probing schemes,ther... Secret key generation(SKG)is a promising solution to the problem of wireless communications security.As the first step of SKG,channel probing affects it significantly.Although there have been some probing schemes,there is a lack of research on the optimization of the probing process.This study investigates how to optimize correlated parameters to maximize the SKG rate(SKGR)in the time-division duplex(TDD)mode.First,we build a probing model which includes the effects of transmitting power,the probing period,and the dimension of sample vectors.Based on the model,the analytical expression of the SKGR is given.Next,we formulate an optimization problem for maximizing the SKGR and give an algorithm to solve it.We conclude the SKGR monotonically increases as the transmitting power increases.Relevant mathematical proofs are given in this study.From the simulation results,increasing appropriately the probing period and the dimension of the sample vector could increase the SKGR dramatically compared to a yardstick,which indicates the importance of optimizing the parameters related to the channel probing phase. 展开更多
关键词 channel autocorrelation function channel probing optimization problem physical layer security secret key generation
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Vertex degree autocorrelation topological index and its application in QSAR study of organic chemicals 被引量:2
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作者 王鹏 杨蕾 +1 位作者 高大文 龙明策 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2001年第4期394-398,共5页
Considering the calculated result and higher degeneracy existing in the calculation of autocorrelation topological index totally depend on experimental parameters, a new group of autocorrelation topological index as ... Considering the calculated result and higher degeneracy existing in the calculation of autocorrelation topological index totally depend on experimental parameters, a new group of autocorrelation topological index as A t, B t, C t and D t was designed and developed based on the vertex degree of molecular topology and autocorrelation function of mathematics. Autocorrelation function f(i) was calculated from the square root of the vertex degree, revised vertex degree and their combination, and they are (δ i) 1/2 , (δ V i) 1/2 ,(δ V i+δ i) 1/2  and (δ E i-δ i) 1/2 / N. With the matrix description method achieved, and the unit input in matrix of unsaturated bond and heteroatoms revised based on the adjacency matrix and distance matrix of organic molecular graph, the corresponding computer software has also been designed and developed. Better results have been obtained for the application of these indexes in QSAR study of organic chemicals. 展开更多
关键词 topological index vertex degree autocorrelation function QSAR molecular topology
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Image-Based Ultrasound Speed Estimation: Phantom and Human Liver Studies
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作者 Jianfeng Chen Junguo Bian +2 位作者 Zuhaib Khokhar Mohamed Belal Emad Allam 《Open Journal of Radiology》 2023年第2期101-112,共12页
Purpose: A novel image-based method for speed of sound (SoS) estimation is proposed and experimentally validated on a tissue-mimicking ultrasound phantom and normal human liver in vivo using linear and curved array tr... Purpose: A novel image-based method for speed of sound (SoS) estimation is proposed and experimentally validated on a tissue-mimicking ultrasound phantom and normal human liver in vivo using linear and curved array transducers. Methods: When the beamforming SoS settings are adjusted to match the real tissue’s SoS, the ultrasound image at regions of interest will be in focus and the image quality will be optimal. Based on this principle, both a tissue-mimicking ultrasound phantom and normal human liver in vivo were used in this study. Ultrasound image was acquired using different SoS settings in beamforming channels ranging from 1420 m/sec to 1600 m/sec. Two regions of interest (ROIs) were selected. One was in a fully developed speckle region, while the other contained specular reflectors. We evaluated the image quality of these two ROIs in images acquired at different SoS settings in beamforming channels by using the normalized autocorrelation function (ACF) of the image data. The values of the normalized ACF at a specific lag as a function of the SoS setting were computed. Subsequently, the soft tissue’s SoS was determined from the SoS setting at the minimum value of the normalized ACF. Results: The value of the ACF as a function of the SoS setting can be computed for phantom and human liver images. SoS in soft tissue can be determined from the SoS setting at the minimum value of the normalized ACF. The estimation results show that the SoS of the tissue-mimicking phantom is 1460 m/sec, which is consistent with the phantom manufacturer’s specification, and the SoS of the normal human liver is 1540 m/sec, which is within the range of the SoS in a healthy human liver in vivo. Conclusion: Soft tissue’s SoS can be determined by analyzing the normalized ACF of ultrasound images. The method is based on searching for a minimum of the normalized ACF of ultrasound image data with a specific lag among different SoS settings in beamforming channels. 展开更多
关键词 Ultrasound Image Normalized autocorrelation function (ACF) Speed of Sound (SoS)
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The Classification to Stationary Process of Tidal Motion Observed at the Time of Kuroshio’s Meandering
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作者 Kenta Kirimoto 《International Journal of Modern Nonlinear Theory and Application》 2023年第1期30-54,共25页
The tide level displays information about the state of the sea current and the tidal motion. The tide level of the southern coast of Japan Island is affected strongly by Kuroshio Current flowing in the western part of... The tide level displays information about the state of the sea current and the tidal motion. The tide level of the southern coast of Japan Island is affected strongly by Kuroshio Current flowing in the western part of North Pacific Ocean. When Kuroshio takes the straight path and flow along the Japan Islands, the tide level increases, and it is calculated from two tide level data observed at Kushimoto and Uragami in the southern part of Kii Peninsula. In contrast, the tide level decreases at the time when Kuroshio leaves from the Japan Islands. In this paper, the hourly tidal data are analyzed using the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and the Mutual Information (MI) and the phase trajectories at first. We classify the results into 5 types of tidal motion. Each categorized type is investigated and characterized precisely using the mean tide level and the unit root test (ADF test) next. The frequency of the type having unstable tidal motion increases when the Kuroshio Current is non-meandering or in a transition state or the tide level is high, and the type shows a non-stationary process. On the other hand, when the Kuroshio Current meanders, the tidal motion tends to take a periodical and stable state and the motion is a stationary process. Though it is not frequent, we also discover a type of stationary and irregular tidal motion. 展开更多
关键词 Kuroshio Current Tide Level autocorrelation function Mutual Information Unit Root Test Phase Trajectories Stationary Process
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Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Mobile Cellular Subscription 被引量:3
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作者 Ian Siluyele Stanley Jere 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第2期303-309,共7页
In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitt... In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019. 展开更多
关键词 Mobile Cellular Subscription Box-Jenkins Methodology ARIMA Model autocorrelation function Partial autocorrelation function
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PERIODIC COMPLEMENTARY BINARY SEQUENCE PAIRS 被引量:16
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作者 XuChengqian ZhaoXiaoqun 《Journal of Electronics(China)》 2002年第2期152-159,共8页
A new set of binary sequences-Periodic Complementary Binary Sequence Pair (PCSP) is proposed. A new class of block design-Difference Family Pair (DFP) is also proposed.The relationship between PCSP and DFP, the proper... A new set of binary sequences-Periodic Complementary Binary Sequence Pair (PCSP) is proposed. A new class of block design-Difference Family Pair (DFP) is also proposed.The relationship between PCSP and DFP, the properties and existing conditions of PCSP and the recursive constructions for PCSP are given. 展开更多
关键词 Coding theory Periodic complementary binary sequence pairs Difference family pairs autocorrelation function Block design
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Chaos game representation walk model for the protein sequences 被引量:3
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作者 高洁 蒋丽丽 徐振源 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第10期4571-4579,共9页
A new chaos game representation of protein sequences based on the detailed hydrophobic-hydrophilic (HP) model has been proposed by Yu et al (Physica A 337(2004) 171). A CGR-walk model is proposed based on the ne... A new chaos game representation of protein sequences based on the detailed hydrophobic-hydrophilic (HP) model has been proposed by Yu et al (Physica A 337(2004) 171). A CGR-walk model is proposed based on the new CGR coordinates for the protein sequences from complete genomes in the present paper. The new CCR coordinates based on the detailed HP model are converted into a time series, and a long-memory ARFIMA(p, d, q) model is introduced into the protein sequence analysis. This model is applied to simulating real CCR-walk sequence data of twelve protein sequences. Remarkably long-range correlations are uncovered in the data and the results obtained from these models are reasonably consistent with those available from the ARFIMA(p, d, q) model. 展开更多
关键词 chaos game representation CGR-walk model protein sequence long-memory ARFIMA(p d q) model autocorrelation function
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Modeling of Rocks with Spatial Distributed Fractures by Random Medium Theory 被引量:3
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作者 ZengXinwu ZhangGuangying WangXiuming 《Applied Geophysics》 SCIE CSCD 2004年第1期50-55,共6页
By using the spectrum expanding theory of random processes and Hudson's crack model,we developed a random medium model for rocks with spatial random distributed number density of cracks. This model could connect t... By using the spectrum expanding theory of random processes and Hudson's crack model,we developed a random medium model for rocks with spatial random distributed number density of cracks. This model could connect the micro-parameters of the cracks with the macro- mechanical properties, and can be effectively applied to model the real inhomogeneous medium. Numerical example indicates that the random distribution characters could be different for different elastic constants under the same random distribution of number density of cracks. By changing the value of the autocorrelation length pair, it is possible to model the difference of the distribution in the two coordinate directions. Numerical modeling results for seismic wave propagating in rocks with random distributed fractures using a staggered high-order finite-difference (SHOFD) are also presented. 展开更多
关键词 random medium autocorrelation function ROCK and fracture
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Quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal correlations of seismic events induced by longwall coal mining 被引量:2
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作者 Shuyu Wang Guangyao Si +4 位作者 Changbin Wang Wu Cai Binglei Li Joung Oh Ismet Canbulat 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第5期1406-1420,共15页
Rock failure process as a natural response to mining activities is associated with seismic events, which can pose a potential hazard to mine operators, equipment and infrastructures. Mining-induced seismicity has been... Rock failure process as a natural response to mining activities is associated with seismic events, which can pose a potential hazard to mine operators, equipment and infrastructures. Mining-induced seismicity has been found to be internally correlated in both time and space domains as a result of rock fracturing during progressive mining activities. Understanding the spatio-temporal(ST) correlation of mininginduced seismic events is an essential step to use seismic data for further analysis, such as rockburst prediction and caving assessment. However, there are no established methods to perform this critical task. Input parameters used for the prediction of seismic hazards, such as the time window of past data and effective prediction distance, are determined based on site-specific experience without statistical or physical reasons to support. Therefore, the accuracy of current seismic prediction methods is largely constrained, which can only be addressed by quantitively assessing the ST correlations of mininginduced seismicity. In this research, the ST correlation of seismic event energy collected from a study mine is quantitatively analysed using various statistical methods, including autocorrelation function(ACF), semivariogram and Moran’s I analysis. In addition, based on the integrated ST correlation assessment, seismic events are further classified into seven clusters, so as to assess the correlations within individual clusters. The correlation of seismic events is found to be quantitatively assessable, and their correlations may vary throughout the mineral extraction process. 展开更多
关键词 Spatial correlation Temporal correlation autocorrelation function(ACF) SEMIVARIOGRAM Scale of fluctuation
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Dynamics of electron in a surface quantum well 被引量:1
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作者 王立飞 杨光参 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第6期2523-2528,共6页
This paper studies the quantum dynamics of electrons in a surface quantum well in the time domain with auto- correlation of wave packet. The evolution of the wave packet for different manifold eigenstates with finite ... This paper studies the quantum dynamics of electrons in a surface quantum well in the time domain with auto- correlation of wave packet. The evolution of the wave packet for different manifold eigenstates with finite and infinite lifetimes is investigated analytically. It is found that the quantum coherence and evolution of the surface electronic wave packet can be controlled by the laser central energy and electric field. The results show that the finite lifetime of excited states expedites the dephasing of the coherent electronic wave packet significantly. The correspondence between classical and quantum mechanica is shown explicitly in the system. 展开更多
关键词 quantum well electronic wavepacket autocorrelation function
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On the Relationship of the Discrete Model of the Nuclei of Linear and Planar Defects and the Continuum Models of Defects in Crystalline Materials 被引量:2
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作者 V. L. Busov 《Applied Mathematics》 2020年第9期862-875,共14页
A physical and mathematical model of the transition from a discrete model of linear and flat defects nuclei to continuum models of defects such as dislocations and disclinations and their combinations is presented, wh... A physical and mathematical model of the transition from a discrete model of linear and flat defects nuclei to continuum models of defects such as dislocations and disclinations and their combinations is presented, where the tensors of energy-momentum and angular momentum of an alternating field are considered, for which the type and structure of the Maxwell stress tensor <span><i>σ</i></span><sup><i>if</i></sup><sub style="margin-left:-15px;"> <i>αβ</i></sub> are given and the corresponding angular momentum tensor, using the dynamic equation for the evolution of internal stresses and the correlation between the stresses <span><i>σ</i></span><sup><i>if</i></sup><sub style="margin-left:-15px;"> <i>αβ</i></sub> in the defect core and the elastic stresses <span><i>σ</i></span><sup><i>el</i></sup><sub style="margin-left:-9px;"><i>ik</i></sub> in its environment, obtains elastic displacement and deformation fields identical to these fields from Burgers and Frank vectors of continuous models. The spectral density of the autocorrelation functions of the velocity of photoelectrons <span>Ψ</span><sup><i>β</i></sup><sub style="margin-left:-6px;">⊥</sub>(<i>β</i>) and cations <img src="Edit_e2d8e074-eb94-44dc-8ab6-6644bbf74f9c.bmp" alt="" /> , which transforms into linear spectra as <i>T</i> → 0, is considered reflecting the existence of threshold values of oscillation and rotations currents of photoelectrons and cations at all stages of plastic deformation and fracture. The features of the process of sliding linear defects in metals are disclosed. 展开更多
关键词 Maxwell Stress Tensor of an Alternating (Intermittent) Field Equation of Evolution of Internal Stresses autocorrelation function of the Speed of Photoelectrons and Cations
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Using texture synthesis in fractal pattern design
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作者 魏宝刚 李建平 庞向斌 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第3期289-295,共7页
Traditional fractal pattern design has some disadvantages such as inability to effectively reflect the characteristics of real scenery and texture. We propose a novel pattern design technique combining fractal geometr... Traditional fractal pattern design has some disadvantages such as inability to effectively reflect the characteristics of real scenery and texture. We propose a novel pattern design technique combining fractal geometry and image texture synthesis to solve these problems. We have improved Wei and Levoy (2000)’s texture synthesis algorithm by first using two-dimensional autocorrelation function to analyze the structure and distribution of textures, and then determining the size of L neighborhood. Several special fractal sets were adopted and HSL (Hue, Saturation, and Light) color space was chosen. The fractal structure was used to manipulate the texture synthesis in HSL color space where the pattern’s color can be adjusted conveniently. Experiments showed that patterns with different styles and different color characteristics can be more efficiently generated using the new technique. 展开更多
关键词 Fractal geometry Texture synthesis Two-dimensional autocorrelation function Pattern design Image render
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On-Line Structural Breaks Estimation for Non-stationary Time Series Models
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作者 成孝刚 李勃 陈启美 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第7期95-104,共10页
Non-stationary time series could be divided into piecewise stationary stochastic signal. However, the number and locations of breakpoints, as well as the approximation function of the respective segment signal are unk... Non-stationary time series could be divided into piecewise stationary stochastic signal. However, the number and locations of breakpoints, as well as the approximation function of the respective segment signal are unknown. To solve this problem, a novel on-line structural breaks estimation algorithm based on piecewise autoregressive processes is proposed. In order to find the "best" combination of the number, lengths, and orders of the piecewise autoregressive (AR) processes, the Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC) and Yule-Walker equations are applied to estimate an AR model fit to the data. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed estimation algorithm is suitable for different data series. Furthermore, the algorithm is used in a clinical study of electroencephalogram (EEG) with satisfactory results, and the ability to deal with real-time data is the most outstanding characteristic of on-line structural breaks estimation algorithm proposed. 展开更多
关键词 non-stationary signal on-line structural breaks estimation ARMA model BREAKPOINT autocorrelation function DICHOTOMY
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CONSTRUCTIONOFACLASSOFPNSEQUENCESWITHPRIMENUMBERPERIODSOF4t+1FORM
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作者 Yang Fengfan Bi Guangguo Department of Radio Engineering,Southeast UniversityNanjing 210096,P.R.China 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI 1996年第1期118-120,共3页
A class of new PN sequence with prime number periods of 4t +1 form (t is an integer)is constructed.The advantage of these PN sequencs over the m(M) sequence is their large number of alternative periods.They hav... A class of new PN sequence with prime number periods of 4t +1 form (t is an integer)is constructed.The advantage of these PN sequencs over the m(M) sequence is their large number of alternative periods.They have good pseudo random characteristics demonstrated by the expression of periodic autocorrelation function found out in this paper. 展开更多
关键词 CODING autocorrelation function MATRIX PN sequences quadratic element finite field
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The spin dynamics of the random transverse Ising chain with a double-Gaussian disorder
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作者 刘中强 姜素蓉 孔祥木 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第8期527-536,共10页
The dynamical properties of one-dimensional random transverse Ising model (RTIM) with a double-Gaussian disorder is investigated by the recursion method. Based on the first twelve recurrences derived analytically, t... The dynamical properties of one-dimensional random transverse Ising model (RTIM) with a double-Gaussian disorder is investigated by the recursion method. Based on the first twelve recurrences derived analytically, the spin autocorrelation function (SAF) and associated spectral density at high temperature were obtained numerically. Our results indicate that when the standard deviation σg (or OrB) of the exchange couplings Ji (or the random transverse fields Bi) is small, no long-time tail appears in the SAE The spin system undergoes a crossover from a central-peak behavior to a collectivemode behavior, which is the dynamical characteristics of RTIM with the bimodal disorder. However, when σJ (or σB) is large enough, the system exhibits similar dynamics behaviors to those of the RTIM with the Gaussian disorder, i.e., the system exhibits an enhanced central-peak behavior for large σJ or a disordered behavior for large σB. In this instance, SAFs exhibit a similar long-time tail, i.e., C(t) ~ t ^-2 for large t. Similar properties are obtained when Ji (or Bi) satisfy the double-exponential distribution or the double-uniform distribution. Besides, when both the standard deviations and the mean values of the exchange couplings are small, the effects of the Gaussian random bonds may drive the system undergo two crossovers from a triplet state to a doublet state, and then to a collective-mode state. 展开更多
关键词 random transverse Ising model spin autocorrelation function spectral density long-time tail
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IDFT Numerical Simulation Method for Gaussian Rough Surface with Relatively Large Correlation Length
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作者 王廷剑 王黎钦 赵小力 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2015年第3期216-222,共7页
A numerical simulation method based on inverse discrete Fourier transform(IDFT)is presented for generating Gaussian rough surface with a desired autocorrelation function(ACF). The probability density function of the h... A numerical simulation method based on inverse discrete Fourier transform(IDFT)is presented for generating Gaussian rough surface with a desired autocorrelation function(ACF). The probability density function of the height distribution of the generated Gaussian surface and the root-mean-square height of the rough surface are also considered. It is found that the height distribution of the generated surface follows the Gaussian distribution, the deviation of the root-mean-square height of the modeled rough surface from the desired value is smaller than that of Patir's method, and the autocorrelation function of the modeled surface is also in good agreement with the desired autocorrelation function. Compared with Patir's method, the modeled surface generated by the IDFT method is in better agreement with the desired autocorrelation function, especially when the correlation length is relatively large. 展开更多
关键词 numerical simulation Gaussian rough surface autocorrelation function root-mean-square height IDFT
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LONG-RANGE CORRELATIONS IN DNA SEQUENCES USING TWO-DIMENSIONAL DNA WALKS
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作者 JinChena Lin-xiZhanga De-luZhaob 《Chinese Journal of Polymer Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第1期11-16,共6页
The characterization of long-range correlations and fractal properties of DNA sequences has proved to be adifficult though rewarding task mainly due to the mosaic character of DNA consisting of many patches of various... The characterization of long-range correlations and fractal properties of DNA sequences has proved to be adifficult though rewarding task mainly due to the mosaic character of DNA consisting of many patches of various lengthswith different nucleotide constitutions.In this paper we investigate statistical correlations among different positions in DNAsequences using the two-dimensional DNA walk.The root-mean-square fluctuation F(l)is described by a power law.Theautocorrelation function C(l),which is used to measure the linear dependence and periodicity,exists a power law ofC(l)-l^(-μ).We also calculate the mean-square distance<R^2(l)>along the DNA chain,and it may be expressed as<R^2(l)>-l^(?)with 2>γ>1.Our investigations can provide some insights into long-range correlations in DNA sequences. 展开更多
关键词 autocorrelation function DNA sequence Long-range correlation.
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A Random Nonstationary Pulse Train Model
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作者 Leon Cohen 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 EI CAS 2021年第3期228-237,共10页
A simple and mathematically tractable model of a nonstationary process is developed.The process is the sum of waves where the parameters of the waves are random.Explicit expres-sions for the mean and autocorrelation f... A simple and mathematically tractable model of a nonstationary process is developed.The process is the sum of waves where the parameters of the waves are random.Explicit expres-sions for the mean and autocorrelation function at each position as a function of time are obtained.In the case of infinite time,the model evolves into a stationary process.The time-frequency distri-bution at each position is also obtained.An explicit example is given where the initial waves are Gaussian.The case where there is dispersion in the propagation is also discussed. 展开更多
关键词 nonstationary process mean and autocorrelation function time-frequency distribution Gaussian waves
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Speed Estimation Using Commercial Wi-Fi Device in Smart Home
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作者 TIAN Zengshan YE Chenglin +2 位作者 ZHANG Gongzhui HE Wei JIN Yue 《ZTE Communications》 2021年第2期44-52,共9页
With the development of Internet of Things(IoT),the speed estimation technology has attracted significant attention in the field of indoor security,intelligent home and personalized service.Due to the indoor multipath... With the development of Internet of Things(IoT),the speed estimation technology has attracted significant attention in the field of indoor security,intelligent home and personalized service.Due to the indoor multipath propagation,the speed information is implicit in the motion-induced reflected signal.Thus,the wireless signal can be leveraged to measure the speed of moving target.Among existing speed estimation approaches,users need to either carry a specialized device or walk in a predefined route.Wi-Fi based approaches provide an alternative solution in a device-free way.In this paper,we propose a direction independent indoor speed estimation system in terms of Electromagnetic(EM)wave statistical theory.Based on the statistical characteristics of EM waves,we establish the deterministic relationship between the Autocorrelation Function(ACF)of Channel State Information(CSI)and the speed of a moving target.Extensive experiments show that the system achieves a median error of 0.18 m/s for device-free single target walking speed estimation. 展开更多
关键词 CSI speed estimation electromagnetic wave direction-independent autocorrelation function
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Modelling HIV/AIDS Cases in Zambia: A Comparative Study of the Impact of Mandatory HIV Testing
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作者 Edwin Moyo James C. Shakalima +2 位作者 Gilbert Chambashi James Muchinga Levy K. Matindih 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2021年第3期409-419,共11页
In this study, a time series modeling approach is used to determine an<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ARIMA model and advance counterfactual forecasting at a point of policy intervention. We consid... In this study, a time series modeling approach is used to determine an<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> ARIMA model and advance counterfactual forecasting at a point of policy intervention. We consider monthly data of HIV/AIDS cases from the Ministry of Health (Copperbelt province) of Zambia, for the period 2010 to 2019 and ha</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ve</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> a total of 120 observations. Results indicate that ARIMA (1,</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0,</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0) is an adequate model which best fits the HIV/AIDS time series data and is, therefore, suitable for forecasting cases. The model predicts a reduction from an average of 3500 to 3177 representing 14.29% in HIV/AIDS cases from 2017 (year of policy activation) to 2019, but the actual recorded cases dropped from 3500 to 1514 accounting for 57.4% in the same time frame.</span> 展开更多
关键词 Counterfactual Forecasting Box-Jenkins Methodology ARIMA Model Auto-correlation function Partial autocorrelation function
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