The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

A Comparative Study of Myocardial Damage Caused by Novel Coronavirus Infection and Influenza A Virus Infection in Children during the COVID-19 Epidemic Period

Objective: To explore the comparative study of myocardial damage in children infected with COVID-19 and influenza A virus during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: Retrospective analysis of myocardial injury caused by COVID-19 infection and influenza A virus infection in children during the COVID-19 from October 2022 to May 2023, including 106 cases of COVID-19 infection, that is, the COVID-19 group;And 164 cases of influenza A virus infection, namely, H1N1 group;Two groups were tested for various indicators of myocardial enzyme spectrum, and the situation of myocardial injury was compared between the two groups. Result: In the enrolled cases, there was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence rate of men and women in the COVID-19 group (P > 0.05);There was no statistically significant difference in the average age between men and women (P > 0.05);The comparison of the incidence rates between males and females in the H1N1 group showed a statistically significant difference (P 0.05);There was no statistically significant difference in the average age between the two groups of girls (P > 0.05). A comparison between two groups of various indicators of myocardial enzyme spectra showed that the results of AST, -HBDH and LDH were statistically significant (P 0.05). Conclusion: Both COVID-19 infection and influenza A virus infection in children have different degrees of myocardial damage, but COVID-19 infection causes more myocardial damage than influenza A virus infection, and influenza A virus is more prone to myocardial infarction, which deserves our attention.

Influence of the continuing COVID-19 epidemic on sleep quality and psychological status of healthcare workers in private institutions

BACKGROUND On January 22,2020,Macao reported its first case of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)infection.By August 2021,the situation had escalated into a crisis of community transmission.In response,the government launched a recruitment campaign seeking assistance and services of healthcare workers(HCWs)from the private sector throughout Macao.These participants faced concerns about their own health and that of their families,as well as the responsibility of maintaining public health and wellness.This study aims to determine whether the ongoing epidemic has caused them physical and psychological distress.AIM To examine the influence of COVID-19 on the sleep quality and psychological status of HCWs in private institutions in Macao during the pandemic.METHODS Data were collected from December 2020 to January 2022.Two consecutive surveys were conducted.The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(PSQI)scale,Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS),and Self-Rating Depression Scale(SDS)were employed as investigation tools.RESULTS In the first-stage survey,32%of HCWs experienced a sleep disorder,compared to 28.45%in the second-stage survey.A total of 31.25%of HCWs in the first-stage survey and 28.03%in the second had varying degrees of anxiety.A total of 50.00%of HCWs in the first-stage survey and 50.63%in the second experienced varying degrees of depression.No difference in PSQI scores,SAS scores,or SDS scores were observed between the two surveys,indicating that the COVID-19 epidemic influenced the sleep quality and psychological status of HCWs.The negative influence persisted over both periods but did not increase remarkably for more than a year.However,a positive correlation was observed between the PSQI,SAS,and SDS scores(r=0.428-0.775,P<0.01),indicating that when one of these states deteriorated,the other two tended to deteriorate as well.CONCLUSION The sleep quality,anxiety,and depression of HCWs in private institution in Macao were affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.While these factors did not deteriorate significantly,the negative effects persisted for a year and remained noteworthy.

Relationships among Sedentary Time,Electronic Product Addiction,and Depression in Adolescents during the COVID-19 Epidemic:A Cross-Lagged Study

Objective:This study was conducted to explore the relationships among sedentary behavior(SB),electronic product addiction(EPA),and depression(D)in adolescents during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:A total of 604 adolescents(including 309 girls and 295 boys aged 12-18)were selected from Qufu City,Shandong Province,China for three rounds of investigation.The model was constructed using AMOS 23.0 software,and cross-lagged analysis was conducted.Results:SB at T1 can significantly positively predict SB and EPA at T2(p<0.05).EPA at T1 can significantly positively predict SB and D at T2(p<0.05).Physical activity level and SB at T2 can significantly predict SB and EPA at T3(p<0.05).EPA at T2 can significantly predict SB,EPA,and D at T3(p<0.05).Conclusions:SB and EPA are predictive factors for D.Moreover,SB can significantly positively predict D and indirectly predict D through the mediating effect of EPA.

Practice of Infection Prevention and Control Strategies in Risk Departments during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Objective: To explore the practice and application of infection prevention and control strategies in risk departments during the COVID-19 epidemic, and to formulate the infection prevention and control measures to provide advice and guidance in risk departments. Methods: According to the latest plan of diagnosis and treatment, prevention and control issued by the National Health Commission, expert advice and consensus, combined with the actual situation in our hospital, a series of infection prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in risk department was formulated. Results: During the epidemic period, the prevention and control measures of nine risk departments including emergency operation, anesthesiology, endoscopy center, blood purification center, otolaryngology, stomatology, medical imaging department, medical cosmetology department and pulmonary function room were established from six aspects, including pre-examination and screening, medical technology control, personnel management, personal protection, environmental disinfection, medical waste disposal, etc. Conclusion: During the epidemic period, the infection prevention and control strategy of risk departments is one of the key links to control the spread of the epidemic, and risk departments must pay attention to and strictly implement various infection prevention and control measures.

Study on Influence of the COVID-19 Epidemic on Tourism Consumption Structure in Shandong Province

At the end of 2019,the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic brought great challenges to the world,and China's tourism industry suffered an unprecedented heavy blow.Exploring the impact of the epidemic on tourism consumption structure has become a research focus in the post-epidemic era.In this study,based on Shandong Tourism Statistics Handbook from 2018 to 2020,taking Shandong Province as an example,the changes of total tourism revenue and tourism consumption structure in Shandong Province before and after the COVID-19 epidemic were compared to predict the development of tourism in Shandong Province in the post-epidemic era and find out existing problems,and optimization paths were put forward for the development of tourism in Shandong Province in the post-epidemic era.

Comparison of ocular trauma between normalized and the COVID-19 epidemic periods in China:a multi-center cross-sectional study

AIM:To compare the feature of ocular trauma between normalized period and the COVID-19 epidemic period in China,and to provide a profile for eye injuries in special times in future.METHODS:This is a multi-center cross-sectional study with 30 participated hospitals involving the China Ocular Trauma Society members.All hospitalized cases who visited the Ophthalmology Department in participated hospitals with eye injuries during the normalized period(2019)and the COVID-19 epidemic period(2020)were included in this study.Demographic characteristic of cases,date of injury,sites and types of injury were collected.RESULTS:This study involved 13525(61 cases with both eyes)injured cases.There were 7269(53.74%)eyeinjured cases and 6256(46.26%)eye-injured cases in 2019 and 2020 separately.Compared with 2019,the incidence of ocular trauma in retirees,housewives and unemployed increased with year-on-year of 4.96%,102.67%,and 11.64%among all occupations.In 2020,the incidence of eye injuries decreased in all injury sites except for an increase in home(30.29%year-on-year).The incidence of mechanical eye injuries decreased,while that of nonmechanical eye injuries(chemical/thermal/radiation)increased(47.45%year-on-year).There were 255(3.51%,255/7269)and 376(6.01%,376/6256)non-mechanical injured cases in 2019 and 2020(Pearson Chi^(2)=47.33,P<0.001)separately.CONCLUSION:During the COVID-19 epidemic period,the total cases of ocular trauma decrease but the proportion of non-mechanical ocular trauma increase.Penetrating is still the highest proportion among all types of mechanical ocular trauma.From a preventive point of view,protection for retired persons,housewives and unemployed persons should be improved during public health events period.

Sociopsychological impact factors of depression patients during the COVID-19 epidemic period

Objective:To investigate the impact factors of the COVID-19 epidemic on the mental health of patients with depression.Methods:The relevant data of 242 residents aged 18-50 years in a certain area were collected,118 patients and 124 healthy people were analyzed by general information questionnaire,the PsychoSocial Index(PSI)questionnaire,Social Support Rating Scale(SSRS)and Symptom Checklist 90(SCL-90).Compare the differences in social and psychological factors between the two groups.Then use logistic regression to evaluate the social and psychological influencing factors of depression patients during the epidemic.Results:Two results of logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,occupational status,abnormal pathological behavior,and utilization of support were still significantly associated with depression.Compared to working,unemployed/unemployed/retired,students are closely related to depression,followed by abnormal pathological behavior and utilization of support.Conclusion:Under the epidemic,depression groups lacking social relationships should actively pay attention to their mental health status and comprehensively enhance their social and psychological support.To avoid the exacerbation of psychological and psychological symptoms caused by the epidemic.

A Study on Organizational Commitment,Work Motivation,and Job Performance After the COVID-19 Epidemic in Taiwan-The Mediating Effects of Work Motivation and Organizational Communication

The purpose of this study is to explore the correlation between organizational commitment and job performance among employees in Taiwan Residents companies after the COVID-19 epidemic,and to use work motivation and organizational communication as intermediary variables to further understand the interaction between them.Using hierarchical multiple regression analysis and bootstrap method to analyze,the research results show that organizational commitment has a significant positive impact on work motivation and work performance,and work motivation also has a significant positive impact on work performance.In addition,organizational communication has a mediating effect on organizational commitment and work motivation,and work motivation also has a mediating effect on organizational commitment and work machine performance.The results of this study hope to understand the working conditions of organizations and employees after the COVID-19 epidemic,and provide relevant business operators with follow-up references for their operations.

Role of children in the Bulgarian COVID-19 epidemic:A mathematical model study

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic affects all aspects of our lives,including children.With the advancement of the pandemic,children under five years old are at increased risk of hospitalization relative to other age groups.This makes it paramount that we develop tools to address the two critical aspects of preserving children's health–new treatment protocols and new predictive models.For those purposes,we need to understand better the effects of COVID-19 on children,and we need to be able to predict the number of affected children as a proportion of the number of infected children.This is why our research focuses on clinical and epidemiological pictures of children with heart damage post-COVID,as a part of the general picture of post-COVID among this age group.AIM To demonstrate the role of children in the COVID-19 spread in Bulgaria and to test the hypothesis that there are no secondary transmissions in schools and from children to adults.METHODS Our modeling and data show with high probability that in Bulgaria,with our current measures,vaccination strategy and contact structure,the pandemic is driven by the children and their contacts in school.RESULTS This makes it paramount that we develop tools to address the two critical aspects of preserving children's health–new treatment protocols and new predictive models.For those purposes,we need to understand better the effects of COVID-19 on children,and we need to be able to predict the number of affected children as a proportion of the number of infected children.This is why our research focuses on clinical and epidemiological pictures of children with heart damage post-COVID,as a part of the general picture of post-Covid among this age group.CONCLUSION Our modeling rejects that hypothesis,and the epidemiological data supports that.We used epidemiological data to support the validity of our modeling.The first summer wave in 2020 from the listed here school proms endorse the idea of transmissions from students to teachers.

Clinical Internship Teaching Management During the COVID-19 Epidemic

Against the backdrop of the global COVID-19 pandemic,the teaching and management of clinical medical interns have been facing tremendous challenges.When interns majoring in clinical medicine enter the internship position,they lack self-protection awareness and have limited ability to respond to unexpected public health events.This article explores the cognitive situation,existing problems,and improvement measures of clinical medical interns in the post-epidemic era.Therefore,this article proposes a series of improvement measures,including strengthening epidemic training and education for interns,enhancing personal protective awareness,and lastly achieving the role transition from intern to doctor.

Study on the demand for public health professional after the COVID-19 epidemic in Zhejiang Province, China: A survey based on human-machine collaboration

To understand the needs of public health institutions in Zhejiang Province,China for public health personnel,and provide basis for training public health personnel.Methods:512 public health institutions in Zhejiang Province were randomly selected from different levels and regions,and the number of ublic health professional and the demand for professional ability were investigated by questionnaire.Results:The preventive medicine personnel in public health institutions in Zhejiang Province are insufficient;There is a certain disjunction or dislocation between the abilities and needs of public health professional;The way of continuing education for public health professional is single and the opportunities are few.Conclusion:Zhejiang Province should appropriately expand the enrollment of preventive medicine majors,especially high-level preventive medicine talents,deepen the education and teaching reform of preventive medicine majors,and strengthen the continuing education and training of public health professional to meet the needs of public health services after the COVID-19 epidemic.

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the International Food Supply Chain and Countermeasures of Shandong Province

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted an impact on the global food supply chain,and also has contributed to the tendency of food hoarding and short supply;strong food demand has led to a rapid rise in international food prices,which has put enormous pressure on China's food import,and domestic food price showed a rise trend accordingly.In order to ensure sufficient and stable supply of China's food market,it is necessary to adhere to the food security strategy of"food self-sufficiency"for a long term.In the spring agricultural production,Shandong Province has taken effective measures to stabilize food production and achieved good results.It has not been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic;however,under the continuous spread of foreign epidemics,we must adhere to the dual hard core operation of epidemic prevention and production,and explore the establishment of technical specifications for agricultural production under normal conditions for epidemic prevention and control to ensure the food security.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review

The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern.A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological parameters,explore and project the trends of the COVID-19,and assess the effects of intervention or control measures.We identified 63 studies and summarized the three aspects of these studies:epidemiological parameters estimation,trend prediction,and control measure evaluation.Despite the discrepancy between the predictions and the actuals,the dynamic model has made great contributions in the above three aspects.The most important role of dynamic models is exploring possibilities rather than making strong predictions about longer-term disease dynamics.

Psychological impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on Chinese people: Exposure, post-traumatic stress symptom, and emotion regulation

Objective:To examine the effects of coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)exposure,expressive suppression/cognitive reappraisal,and demographic variables on post-traumatic stress symptoms(PTS)among Chinese.Methods:Participants were recruited by social media through We Chat and 6049 Chinese(aged from 17 to 63 years;median=24)from 31 provinces were included in the study.PTS symptoms,expressive suppression,and cognitive reappraisal were assessed after the outbreak of COVID-19.A regression mixture analysis was conducted in Mplus 7.Results:A regression mixture model identified three latent classes that were primarily distinguished by differential effects of COVID-19 exposures on PTS symptoms:(1)Class 1(mildly PTS symptoms,80.9%),(2)Class 2(moderate PTS symptoms,13.0%),and(3)Class 3(high PTS symptoms,6.1%).The results demonstrated that the young,women and people with responsibilities and concerns for others were more vulnerable to PTS symptoms;and they had more expression inhibition and less cognitive reappraisal in three latent classes.Conclusions:The findings suggest that more attention needs to be paid to vulnerable groups such as the young,women and people with responsibilities and concerns for others.Therapies to encourage emotional expression and increase cognitive reappraisal may also be helpful for trauma survivors.

Implementation of Clinical Diagnostic Criteria and Universal Symptom Survey Contributed to Lower Magnitude and Faster Resolution of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan

自新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)疫情发生以来,中国大多数的病例集中在武汉市。虽然早期病例数和死亡人数迅速增加,但通过采取多种防控措施,疫情得以快速遏制。纵观全球,疫情已蔓延至全球六大洲的187个国家,确诊病例数已超过300万,这一数字仍在快速增长。在此特殊背景下,有必要对我国疫情防控措施开展科学的、定量的评估,为全球疫情防控提供决策依据。为此,本研究评估了临床诊断标准实施和全城症状排查对武汉市疫情控制的贡献。考虑COVID-19的传播机理、隔离措施等,建立SEIR+Q传播动力学模型。基于武汉市截至2020年2月14日官方公布的每日确诊病例数和未确诊的临床诊断病例数进行建模,并预测2月14日以后的疫情态势。基于实际疫情数据,与模型预测趋势相比较,评价防控措施效果。结果显示,若维持2月14日以前防控措施不变,那么预测将于3月25日和4月29日,每日新增病例数分别降至100例和10例以下,将于5月31日首次现零。而事实上,截至3月6日,武汉市每日新增病例数降至100例以下,截至3月11日降至10例以下,3月18日首次实现零增长,较之模型预测结果分别提前了19 d、49 d和74 d。截至3月30日,实际累计病例数为50 006例,比模型预测值减少19 951例。有效再生数[effective reproductive number, R(t)]分析显示,2月6-10日的第一次全城症状排查后,R(t)显现出下降趋势,2月12-14日的临床诊断标准实施和2月17-19日的第二次全城症状排查后,R(t)显现出较大的降幅,与实际情况较为一致。综上所述,武汉市临床诊断标准的实施和全城症状排查等综合防控措施成效显著,可为世界各国的疫情防控决策提供科学依据。

Hope During the COVID-19 Epidemic Decreased Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Mediated by Perceived Stress:Coping Style Differences Among Patients with COVID-19

Objective:This study aimed to investigate whether perceived stress mediated the relationship between hope and anxiety/depression symptoms among patients with COVID-19 during the epidemic.In addition,the potential moderating effect of coping styles was examined.Methods:From February 26 to March 10,2020,patients with COVID-19 were asked to complete a questionnaire online,which included demographic characteristics,as well as the SCL-90-Anxiety,SCL-90-Depression,Chinese Perceived Stress Scale(CPSS),Herth Hope Index(HHI),and Trait Coping Style Questionnaire(TCSQ).Hierarchical linear regression was performed to explore independent factors of anxiety/depression.A multi-group structural equation modeling with the collected data from patients in the Negative Coping style(NC)group and Positive Coping style(PC)group was used to test the hypothesized mechanism.Results:In total,382 valid questionnaires of patients were obtained,including 96 from NC patients and 286 from PC patients.In the hierarchical linear regression,hope and perceived stress were independent risk factors for both anxiety and depression in the total sample and PC group.However,hope was not independently related to anxiety/depression in the NC group.As hypothesized,the hope of patients had significant and negative indirect effects on both anxiety and depression that were mediated by perceived stress,However,the direct effect from stress on anxiety and depression was stronger for NC patients than for PC patients.Besides,hope had significant direct effects on anxiety/depression in PC patients,but not in NC patients.Conclusion:During the COVID-19 epidemic,perceived stress could mediate the relationship between hope and anxiety/depression symptoms among COVID-19 patients,with coping style moderating this cultivation process.

Government Intervention Measures Effectively Control COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan,China

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak has been brought under control through a nationwide effort,and now it has become a global pandemic and the situation seems grim.We summarized the measures taken in Wuhan and analyzed the effects to comprehensively describe the factors involved in controlling the COVID-19 in China.In China,several measures such as the lockdown of Wuhan,restriction of traffic and communities,increasing hospital beds,nationwide support from medical staff,epidemic prevention equipment and supplies,and establishment of makeshift shelter hospitals have been taken.The lockdown of Wuhan reduced the propagation of cases to other cities in Hubei province and throughout China,traffic and community restrictions reduced the flow of population and the spread of disease,increasing wards and beds and medical personnel reduced the incidence of severe cases and mortality,the establishment of the Fangcang shelter hospitals provided a good isolation and monitoring environment,and further reduced the spread and fatality of the disease.The fact that China was able to control the spread of COVID-19 within three months without a specific drug or vaccine suggests that these measures are more adequate and effective.

Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models

At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization.To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend,parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters.In this study,the authors propose using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm(LMA)to identify epidemic models.This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss–Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters.The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method.The results show that the Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well,while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.

Gastrointestinal insights during the COVID-19 epidemic

Coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)has so far caused hundreds of mortalities worldwide.Although respiratory symptoms are the main complication in COVID-19 patients,the disease is also associated with gastrointestinal problems,with diarrhea,nausea,and vomiting being primary COVID-19 symptoms.Thus,cancer and inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)management,stool viral tests,and virus exposure are major concerns in the context of COVID-19 epidemic.In patients with colorectal cancer and IBD,the colonic mucosa exhibits elevated angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor levels,enhancing COVID-19 susceptibility.In some cases,positive viral stool tests may be the only indicator of infection at admission or after leaving quarantine.Without supplemental stool tests,the risk of undetected COVID-19 transmission is high.Moreover,viral exposure during the regular or emergency endoscopic examination should be avoided.We carefully discuss key gastrointestinal concerns with regard to COVID-19 and call for more attention to such problems.