在定义计划评审技术(program evaluation and review technique,PERT)网络局部关键活动、关键活动、关键路线和活动关键度的基础上,提出了关键活动、关键路线的分析方法;根据活动不确定性对项目计划工期影响的大小,即活动敏感性指标的大...在定义计划评审技术(program evaluation and review technique,PERT)网络局部关键活动、关键活动、关键路线和活动关键度的基础上,提出了关键活动、关键路线的分析方法;根据活动不确定性对项目计划工期影响的大小,即活动敏感性指标的大小,确定活动在项目进度控制中的重要程度;在定义活动相对敏感性、活动敏感性的基础上,利用全概率公式,得到活动敏感性指标计算公式,进而提出了最关键活动分析方法。算例表明,利用本研究提出的方法可便捷地找出PERT网络的关键路线和最关键活动。展开更多
Monte Carlo(Mc)模拟被广泛应用于光子在生物组织中的传输研究。通常模拟时将生物组织近似为均匀的平板分层介质,当层状生物组织中含有异常物质(如肿瘤细胞等)或正常生物组织为非平板的复杂结构时,其模拟中的组织模型将会有相应的改变...Monte Carlo(Mc)模拟被广泛应用于光子在生物组织中的传输研究。通常模拟时将生物组织近似为均匀的平板分层介质,当层状生物组织中含有异常物质(如肿瘤细胞等)或正常生物组织为非平板的复杂结构时,其模拟中的组织模型将会有相应的改变。通过探讨这几类生物组织的MC模拟模型,总结并分析模型建立的关键问题,对基于MC模拟的各种生物组织光学检测研究提供了指导。展开更多
A method which adopts the combination of least squares support vector machine（LS-SVM） and Monte Carlo（MC） simulation is used to calculate the foundation settlement reliability.When using LS-SVM,choosing the traini...A method which adopts the combination of least squares support vector machine（LS-SVM） and Monte Carlo（MC） simulation is used to calculate the foundation settlement reliability.When using LS-SVM,choosing the training dataset and the values for LS-SVM parameters is the key.In a representative sense,the orthogonal experimental design with four factors and five levels is used to choose the inputs of the training dataset,and the outputs are calculated by using fast Lagrangian analysis continua（FLAC）.The decimal ant colony algorithm（DACA） is also used to determine the parameters.Calculation results show that the values of the two parameters,and δ2 have great effect on the performance of LS-SVM.After the training of LS-SVM,the inputs are sampled according to the probabilistic distribution,and the outputs are predicted with the trained LS-SVM,thus the reliability analysis can be performed by the MC method.A program compiled by Matlab is employed to calculate its reliability.Results show that the method of combining LS-SVM and MC simulation is applicable to the reliability analysis of soft foundation settlement.展开更多
为保障电动车辆的可靠性和安全性,提出了一种dropout Monte Carlo(dropout-MC)递归神经网络的锂离子动力电池系统的剩余寿命(RUL)预测方法。以等电压充电时间间隔作为间接健康因子,考虑外部干扰和容量再生现象的影响,以变分模态分解(VMD...为保障电动车辆的可靠性和安全性,提出了一种dropout Monte Carlo(dropout-MC)递归神经网络的锂离子动力电池系统的剩余寿命(RUL)预测方法。以等电压充电时间间隔作为间接健康因子,考虑外部干扰和容量再生现象的影响,以变分模态分解(VMD)来获得电池退化趋势。以改进的递归神经网络模型——长短时间序列(LSTM)来获得剩余寿命预测。以dropout-MC采样方法来表征锂离子电池剩余寿命的不确定性,并获得锂离子电池RUL的95%置信区间。结果表明:相较于传统的极限学习机(ELM)方法和非线性自回归神经网络(NARX)方法,该文方法的剩余寿命预测性能指标均低于2.4%。因而,该方法具有优越的预测性能,且获得预测的置信区间。展开更多
In order to understand the physical mechanism of multipactor discharge on dielectric window surface under high power microwave （HPM） excitation in vacuum, an electron movement simulation model based on the particle-...In order to understand the physical mechanism of multipactor discharge on dielectric window surface under high power microwave （HPM） excitation in vacuum, an electron movement simulation model based on the particle-in-cell （PIC） Monte Carlo （MC） is built in this paper. The influences of microwave electromagnetic field and electrostatic field from dielectric surface charging are simultaneously considered in this model. During the simulation, the emission velocity and angle distribution of secondary electrons from the dielectric surface are taken into account. The movement trajectories of electron clusters under complex field excitation are obtained. The influences of emergence angle and microwave electromagnetic parameters on the electron movement are analyzed. It is found that the emergence angle of electrons from the surface has significant effect on its movement, and both the impact energy and return time of electrons oscillate periodically with the phase of microwave field. The number of secondary electrons and induced electrostatic field from multipactoring are also investigated. The results reveal that both values oscillate periodically at twice the microwave frequency, which is due to the electron impact energy oscillating with microwave period. A schematic diagram is proposed to explain the periodical oscillation phenomena.展开更多
文摘在定义计划评审技术(program evaluation and review technique,PERT)网络局部关键活动、关键活动、关键路线和活动关键度的基础上,提出了关键活动、关键路线的分析方法;根据活动不确定性对项目计划工期影响的大小,即活动敏感性指标的大小,确定活动在项目进度控制中的重要程度;在定义活动相对敏感性、活动敏感性的基础上,利用全概率公式,得到活动敏感性指标计算公式,进而提出了最关键活动分析方法。算例表明,利用本研究提出的方法可便捷地找出PERT网络的关键路线和最关键活动。
文摘A method which adopts the combination of least squares support vector machine（LS-SVM） and Monte Carlo（MC） simulation is used to calculate the foundation settlement reliability.When using LS-SVM,choosing the training dataset and the values for LS-SVM parameters is the key.In a representative sense,the orthogonal experimental design with four factors and five levels is used to choose the inputs of the training dataset,and the outputs are calculated by using fast Lagrangian analysis continua（FLAC）.The decimal ant colony algorithm（DACA） is also used to determine the parameters.Calculation results show that the values of the two parameters,and δ2 have great effect on the performance of LS-SVM.After the training of LS-SVM,the inputs are sampled according to the probabilistic distribution,and the outputs are predicted with the trained LS-SVM,thus the reliability analysis can be performed by the MC method.A program compiled by Matlab is employed to calculate its reliability.Results show that the method of combining LS-SVM and MC simulation is applicable to the reliability analysis of soft foundation settlement.
文摘为保障电动车辆的可靠性和安全性,提出了一种dropout Monte Carlo(dropout-MC)递归神经网络的锂离子动力电池系统的剩余寿命(RUL)预测方法。以等电压充电时间间隔作为间接健康因子,考虑外部干扰和容量再生现象的影响,以变分模态分解(VMD)来获得电池退化趋势。以改进的递归神经网络模型——长短时间序列(LSTM)来获得剩余寿命预测。以dropout-MC采样方法来表征锂离子电池剩余寿命的不确定性,并获得锂离子电池RUL的95%置信区间。结果表明:相较于传统的极限学习机(ELM)方法和非线性自回归神经网络(NARX)方法,该文方法的剩余寿命预测性能指标均低于2.4%。因而,该方法具有优越的预测性能,且获得预测的置信区间。
基金supported in part by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China
文摘In order to understand the physical mechanism of multipactor discharge on dielectric window surface under high power microwave （HPM） excitation in vacuum, an electron movement simulation model based on the particle-in-cell （PIC） Monte Carlo （MC） is built in this paper. The influences of microwave electromagnetic field and electrostatic field from dielectric surface charging are simultaneously considered in this model. During the simulation, the emission velocity and angle distribution of secondary electrons from the dielectric surface are taken into account. The movement trajectories of electron clusters under complex field excitation are obtained. The influences of emergence angle and microwave electromagnetic parameters on the electron movement are analyzed. It is found that the emergence angle of electrons from the surface has significant effect on its movement, and both the impact energy and return time of electrons oscillate periodically with the phase of microwave field. The number of secondary electrons and induced electrostatic field from multipactoring are also investigated. The results reveal that both values oscillate periodically at twice the microwave frequency, which is due to the electron impact energy oscillating with microwave period. A schematic diagram is proposed to explain the periodical oscillation phenomena.
