An Integrative Collaborative Project Approach to Climate-Change Resilience and Urban/Regional Sustainability for the Mexico-Lerma-Cutzamala Hydrological Region

In a rapidly urbanizing world, the social, economic, and ecological complexities of cities require conceptual and operational innovations to enhance climate resilience and sustainability. We describe our Integrative Collaborative Project (ICP) approach to co-create climate resilience in the Mexico-Lerma-Cutzamala Hydrological Region (MLCHR). In recent years, it has suffered from frequent natural disasters, and under climate change scenarios, the intensity and frequency of extreme events, including severe floods, droughts, heat waves and landslides are expected to increase. ICPs are framed as socio-technical capacity building enterprises, with networks operating at multiple scales. The approach differs from other integrative efforts, which tend to be top-down with scant civil society co-ownership, and focus on limited aspects like indicators/assessment, or institutional capacity building. We reimagine all operational stages, from creative thinking, through ethos and concept, assessment, planning, project design, implementation and management, and monitoring and evaluation. The design of ICPs is informed by six integrative domains: 1) project ethos, concept, and framing;2) sectors, topics, and issues;3) spatial and temporal scales;4) stakeholder interests, relationships and capacities;5) knowledge types, models and methods;and 6) socio-technical capacities and networks. Empirically, the approach is based on participatory development practices, pilot project work tackling sustainable water and sanitation in Mexico, and a synthesis of rich experiential knowledge spanning 20 years. The theoretical basis considers a pragmatic knowledge frame, socio-technical transitions literature, and education for social transformation. We describe forward-looking operational details of the Pilot ICP for the Mexico-Lerma-Cutzamala Hydrological Region, with our three-university partnership as catalyst, and a new breed of socio-technical enterprise organization as a key partner, engaging stakeholders at municipal and regional scales.

Environment Development and Health Safety System in Rural Areas of Bangladesh (Noakhali and Lakshmipur Districts)

At present time, Bangladesh is developing its position in all sectors of world prosperity. Economic development of Bangladesh depends on working ability of whole population of this country, although Bangladesh is not developed in health status of its whole population. A large percentage of people live in rural areas without any proper shelter. This study revealed the environmental development and health safety system in rural areas of Bangladesh, which is located in Noakhali and Lakshmipur districts of Bangladesh. Many sections were studied, which are the main structure of environmental development and health safety system of southeastern region of Bangladesh. The study found that there were three types of handicraft enterprises in the surveyed area such as handicraft input, like palm leaf, factories, Betel nut businesses, and Coconut businesses were headed and owned by the women and they were unaware of their health, environment and waste management or reduction of pollution. This study also reveals that microentrepreneurs did not ensure purified water supply and hygienic toilets within enterprises in the study area. The study also found that a significant portion of the microentrepreneurs are workers, and their family members were always fewer users of protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study identified that most MEs faced transport or carrying facilities or big costing problems, including problems in available services for raw materials in the high category. In contrast, the high cost of transport facilities was very intensive in the study area. Moreover, it found that Microentrepreneurs (MEs) faced high product marketing costs for transport facilities, and a lack of proper pricing of the products in the study area. In addition, it explored that most of the microentrepreneurs did not receive sufficient credit support, and they faced negative attitudes and delayed responses from the credit services providers in the study area. It also found that the majority of the microentrepreneurs argued that capital support, loan, aid, technological assistance, infrastructural assistance, availability of skilled labor forces, availability of raw materials, and getting the government assistance and services were the major reasons for the highest growth of the enterprises in the study area. In addition, entire MEs had no knowledge and understanding of climate change in the study area. It is worth mentioning that MEs were not aware of climate change and its impacts on nature in the handicrafts sector and in their daily lives. A significant portion of the MEs took safety measures against risk and protected themselves and workers within the enterprises in the study area. MEs had various demands such as infrastructural development, economic assistance (/aid/loan/grants/financial), training and development, assistance for environment development, and machinery assistance for promoting their business. MEs argued that the implementation of their suggestion is the key to improve the current situation of the enterprises. The MEs suggested appointing expert workers, ensuring quality inputs, training workers and reserving products carefully.

Anthropogenic Earth-Change： We Are on a Slippery Slope, Breaking New Ground and It＇s Our Fault---A Multi-disciplinary Review and New Unified Earth-System Hypothesis

Human activity could be changing the Earth＇s foundations themselves, as we affect multiple systems interacting in feedback mechanisms changing the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and even the lithosphere （solid surface） and asthenosphere （deformable semi-molten rock layer beneath）. Anthropogenic movement of ice, water and sediment alters viscosity and movement of the asthenosphere; this induces earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanism and rifting, and may induce plate-tectonic-change. These processes may account for the timing of unexplained contemporary Icelandic, New Zealand, Chilean, Japanese and Indonesian seismicity, volcanism and magma movement. Climate-change and sea-level rise are creating： slip-planes from differential water pore-pressures and/or weakening of previous fault-planes; sediment-change and altered hydrology and reservoir-mass, inducing isostasy and further change in pore-pressure. Loss of plant biomass and diversity alter hydrology, precipitation and transpiration, causing isostasy and further sediment- and climate-change. Increased ocean-mass, temperatures and acidity, reduced oceanic oxygenation, and increased transport of （organic） sediments elevate the production and destabilisation of gas-hydrates, causing slumps and tsunamis. Isostasy and altered viscosity of the asthenosphere increase seismicity, slope and faulting, which are the prime triggers for slumping and tsunamis. Altered asthenosphere flows hasten subduction and rifting landward of subduction, enhancing volcanism. All of these processes predominantly coincide, temporally and spatially, in the coasts and continental margins, and the Pacific ring-of-fire, although response times and extents may vary from immediate to multi-millennial scales and from negligible to catastrophic. Contemporary Icelandic seismic and volcanic activity is explained by depleted magma reserves on the north-western side of the mid-ocean ridge as asthenosphere moves from the constructive boundary under deglaciating and rising Greenland.

Surrogate Climate Change Scenario and Projections with a Regional Climate Model: Impact on the Aridity in South America

The impact of global warming on the aridity in South America (SA) is investigated. For this purpose, the methodology for generating surrogate climate-change scenarios with a RCM is employed. For the present climate (CTRL) the RCM is initialized with and driven by ECMWF/ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Two aridity indices are used: the Budyko and the UNEP indices. The results for the CTR are in agreement with other model studies which indicate future warming;rainfall increases in southeastern South America, Ecuador and Peru and decreases in the central and eastern Amazon. In general the model reproduces the aridity in the continent compared with the observed data for both indices. The distribution of aridity over SA in surrogate climate-change scenario shows an increase of the dryness in the continent. Over Amazonia the aridity increases 23.9% (for the UNEP index) and 3.1% (for the Budyko index), suggesting that portions of the Amazonia forest are replaced by dry land area. The semi-arid zone over northeast Brazil expands westward, attaining the interior of north Brazil. In this region the aridity increases 20% (for the UNEP index) and 0.6% (for the Budyko index) indicating that areas of humid regime may be occupied by areas with dry land regime. The RCM was also integrated driven by the AOGCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM for the reference climate (CTRL2) and under A1B SRES scenario. The results for the present-day climate are similar in CTRL2 and CTRL, and are in agreement with CRU data. The distribution of the aridity for the present climate seems to be better represented in CTRL using both Budyko and UNEP indices. The changes in aridity (future climate minus control) are higher in the run forced by the A1B SRES scenario. Although the UNEP and Budyko indices show potentialities and limitations to represent the aridity distribution over SA, the changes in aridity due to a pseudo-scenario of global warming are higher using the UNEP index.

Relating Fish Hg to Variations in Sediment Hg, Climate and Atmospheric Deposition

This article addresses total fish Hg concentrations (THg) by variations in lake Sediment THg, atmospheric Hg deposition (atmHgdep), and climate, i.e., mean annual precipitation (ppt) and air temperature. The Fish THg data were taken from the 1967-to-2010 Fish Mercury Datalayer (FIMDAC). This compilation was standardized for 12-cm long Yellow Perch in accordance with the USGS National Descriptive Model for Mercury in Fish (NDMMF [1]), and documents Fish THg across 1936 non-contaminated lakes in Canada. About 40% of the standardized Fish THg variations related positively to increasing ppt and Sediment THg, but negatively to increasing mean annual July temperature (TJuly). Only 20% of the Fish THg variations related positively to atmHgdep alone. Increasing TJuly likely influences Fish Hg through increased lake and upslope Hg volatilization, in-fish growth dilution, and temperature-induced demethylization. FIMDAC Fish THg effectively did not change over time while atmHgdep decreased. Similarly, the above Fish Hg trends would likely not change much based on projecting the above observations into the future using current 2070 climate-change projections across Canada and the continental US. Regionally, the projected changes in Fish Hg would mostly increase with increasing ppt. Additional not-yet mapped increases are expected to occur in subarctic regions subject to increasing permafrost decline. Locally, Fish THg would continue to be affected by upwind and upslope pollution sources, and by lake-by-lake changes in water aeration and rates of lake-water inversions.

Historical Course Follows Climate Change: Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere — From Peoples’ Migration until the Industrial Revolution (3^rd-18^thCentury)

This paper relates to the statement that the so-called “Little Ice Age” (RCC 6: 1.350-1.800 A.D.) represents—besides the 8k-Event (8.200-8.000 yr cal. B.P.)—the fastest and strongest onset in Holocene History [1]. Its intention focuses on the correlation of interplaying natural processes (i.e. solar energy variation, aerosols, oceanic currents, volcanism as part of plate tectonics, heat flow) with social/political evidence through the time-span of Peoples’ Migration until Industrial Revolution (3rd-18th Century). The time-span comprises the cool/wet/respectively dry climate phase of the P.M. (260-550), a Climate Optimum (600-1.100 A.D.) owning a final Thermal Maximum (1.100-1.260 A.D.) and the “little Ice Age” (1.350-1.800 A.D.), the latter intercalated by the Spörer Minimum (1.460-1.550 A.D.) and the Maunder Minimum (1.650-1.720 A.D.). Thereby, an average temperature difference of 1.0°C - 2.0°C seems sufficient for incising climatic/cultural consequences [2]. It has become obvious that a Climate Optimum primarily provides constructive life conditions;however with a problematic final as the following “Effect-Chain” tells: balanced agricultural/cultural population growth → rich harvests → satisfying nourishment → health, encouragement → overpopulation under favorable materialistic conditions → increasing stress → lack of food, high prices → revolts → migration. In contrast, cool/wet/resp. dry conditions originate destructive/depressive conditions (see Peoples’ Migration) which initiate the following “Effect Chain”: bad agricultural conditions → poor/no harvesting → famine → disease, growing death rate → social, political revolts, wars → human cruelties with psychic/religious background (inquisition, witch-combustion → general chaos (30 yr-war) → death, migration (maritime endeavors, colonization). Furthermore, it should be stressed that volcanic aerosols play besides the solar influx variation—an important role on climate/cultural change [3]. However, the effects of oceanic currents’ heat flow of Mid-Oceanic Ridges and Hot Spots, as well as Earth-Magnetism and Sun/Earth Geometry are poorly understood in this context (Example: Iceland as hot spot situated on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge having been working since 40 Ma). The Chapter-introducing citations play a challenging role in regard to Science Criticism and touch the so-called 95% Confidence line (accepted realm of causal interrelation and according recommendation to Society [4]).