The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

A Comparative Study of Myocardial Damage Caused by Novel Coronavirus Infection and Influenza A Virus Infection in Children during the COVID-19 Epidemic Period

Objective: To explore the comparative study of myocardial damage in children infected with COVID-19 and influenza A virus during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: Retrospective analysis of myocardial injury caused by COVID-19 infection and influenza A virus infection in children during the COVID-19 from October 2022 to May 2023, including 106 cases of COVID-19 infection, that is, the COVID-19 group;And 164 cases of influenza A virus infection, namely, H1N1 group;Two groups were tested for various indicators of myocardial enzyme spectrum, and the situation of myocardial injury was compared between the two groups. Result: In the enrolled cases, there was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence rate of men and women in the COVID-19 group (P > 0.05);There was no statistically significant difference in the average age between men and women (P > 0.05);The comparison of the incidence rates between males and females in the H1N1 group showed a statistically significant difference (P 0.05);There was no statistically significant difference in the average age between the two groups of girls (P > 0.05). A comparison between two groups of various indicators of myocardial enzyme spectra showed that the results of AST, -HBDH and LDH were statistically significant (P 0.05). Conclusion: Both COVID-19 infection and influenza A virus infection in children have different degrees of myocardial damage, but COVID-19 infection causes more myocardial damage than influenza A virus infection, and influenza A virus is more prone to myocardial infarction, which deserves our attention.

Influence of the continuing COVID-19 epidemic on sleep quality and psychological status of healthcare workers in private institutions

BACKGROUND On January 22,2020,Macao reported its first case of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)infection.By August 2021,the situation had escalated into a crisis of community transmission.In response,the government launched a recruitment campaign seeking assistance and services of healthcare workers(HCWs)from the private sector throughout Macao.These participants faced concerns about their own health and that of their families,as well as the responsibility of maintaining public health and wellness.This study aims to determine whether the ongoing epidemic has caused them physical and psychological distress.AIM To examine the influence of COVID-19 on the sleep quality and psychological status of HCWs in private institutions in Macao during the pandemic.METHODS Data were collected from December 2020 to January 2022.Two consecutive surveys were conducted.The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(PSQI)scale,Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS),and Self-Rating Depression Scale(SDS)were employed as investigation tools.RESULTS In the first-stage survey,32%of HCWs experienced a sleep disorder,compared to 28.45%in the second-stage survey.A total of 31.25%of HCWs in the first-stage survey and 28.03%in the second had varying degrees of anxiety.A total of 50.00%of HCWs in the first-stage survey and 50.63%in the second experienced varying degrees of depression.No difference in PSQI scores,SAS scores,or SDS scores were observed between the two surveys,indicating that the COVID-19 epidemic influenced the sleep quality and psychological status of HCWs.The negative influence persisted over both periods but did not increase remarkably for more than a year.However,a positive correlation was observed between the PSQI,SAS,and SDS scores(r=0.428-0.775,P<0.01),indicating that when one of these states deteriorated,the other two tended to deteriorate as well.CONCLUSION The sleep quality,anxiety,and depression of HCWs in private institution in Macao were affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.While these factors did not deteriorate significantly,the negative effects persisted for a year and remained noteworthy.

Relationships among Sedentary Time,Electronic Product Addiction,and Depression in Adolescents during the COVID-19 Epidemic:A Cross-Lagged Study

Objective:This study was conducted to explore the relationships among sedentary behavior(SB),electronic product addiction(EPA),and depression(D)in adolescents during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:A total of 604 adolescents(including 309 girls and 295 boys aged 12-18)were selected from Qufu City,Shandong Province,China for three rounds of investigation.The model was constructed using AMOS 23.0 software,and cross-lagged analysis was conducted.Results:SB at T1 can significantly positively predict SB and EPA at T2(p<0.05).EPA at T1 can significantly positively predict SB and D at T2(p<0.05).Physical activity level and SB at T2 can significantly predict SB and EPA at T3(p<0.05).EPA at T2 can significantly predict SB,EPA,and D at T3(p<0.05).Conclusions:SB and EPA are predictive factors for D.Moreover,SB can significantly positively predict D and indirectly predict D through the mediating effect of EPA.

Practice of Infection Prevention and Control Strategies in Risk Departments during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Objective: To explore the practice and application of infection prevention and control strategies in risk departments during the COVID-19 epidemic, and to formulate the infection prevention and control measures to provide advice and guidance in risk departments. Methods: According to the latest plan of diagnosis and treatment, prevention and control issued by the National Health Commission, expert advice and consensus, combined with the actual situation in our hospital, a series of infection prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in risk department was formulated. Results: During the epidemic period, the prevention and control measures of nine risk departments including emergency operation, anesthesiology, endoscopy center, blood purification center, otolaryngology, stomatology, medical imaging department, medical cosmetology department and pulmonary function room were established from six aspects, including pre-examination and screening, medical technology control, personnel management, personal protection, environmental disinfection, medical waste disposal, etc. Conclusion: During the epidemic period, the infection prevention and control strategy of risk departments is one of the key links to control the spread of the epidemic, and risk departments must pay attention to and strictly implement various infection prevention and control measures.

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the International Food Supply Chain and Countermeasures of Shandong Province

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted an impact on the global food supply chain,and also has contributed to the tendency of food hoarding and short supply;strong food demand has led to a rapid rise in international food prices,which has put enormous pressure on China's food import,and domestic food price showed a rise trend accordingly.In order to ensure sufficient and stable supply of China's food market,it is necessary to adhere to the food security strategy of"food self-sufficiency"for a long term.In the spring agricultural production,Shandong Province has taken effective measures to stabilize food production and achieved good results.It has not been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic;however,under the continuous spread of foreign epidemics,we must adhere to the dual hard core operation of epidemic prevention and production,and explore the establishment of technical specifications for agricultural production under normal conditions for epidemic prevention and control to ensure the food security.

Study on Influence of the COVID-19 Epidemic on Tourism Consumption Structure in Shandong Province

At the end of 2019,the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic brought great challenges to the world,and China's tourism industry suffered an unprecedented heavy blow.Exploring the impact of the epidemic on tourism consumption structure has become a research focus in the post-epidemic era.In this study,based on Shandong Tourism Statistics Handbook from 2018 to 2020,taking Shandong Province as an example,the changes of total tourism revenue and tourism consumption structure in Shandong Province before and after the COVID-19 epidemic were compared to predict the development of tourism in Shandong Province in the post-epidemic era and find out existing problems,and optimization paths were put forward for the development of tourism in Shandong Province in the post-epidemic era.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review

The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern.A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological parameters,explore and project the trends of the COVID-19,and assess the effects of intervention or control measures.We identified 63 studies and summarized the three aspects of these studies:epidemiological parameters estimation,trend prediction,and control measure evaluation.Despite the discrepancy between the predictions and the actuals,the dynamic model has made great contributions in the above three aspects.The most important role of dynamic models is exploring possibilities rather than making strong predictions about longer-term disease dynamics.

Psychological impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on Chinese people: Exposure, post-traumatic stress symptom, and emotion regulation

Objective:To examine the effects of coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)exposure,expressive suppression/cognitive reappraisal,and demographic variables on post-traumatic stress symptoms(PTS)among Chinese.Methods:Participants were recruited by social media through We Chat and 6049 Chinese(aged from 17 to 63 years;median=24)from 31 provinces were included in the study.PTS symptoms,expressive suppression,and cognitive reappraisal were assessed after the outbreak of COVID-19.A regression mixture analysis was conducted in Mplus 7.Results:A regression mixture model identified three latent classes that were primarily distinguished by differential effects of COVID-19 exposures on PTS symptoms:(1)Class 1(mildly PTS symptoms,80.9%),(2)Class 2(moderate PTS symptoms,13.0%),and(3)Class 3(high PTS symptoms,6.1%).The results demonstrated that the young,women and people with responsibilities and concerns for others were more vulnerable to PTS symptoms;and they had more expression inhibition and less cognitive reappraisal in three latent classes.Conclusions:The findings suggest that more attention needs to be paid to vulnerable groups such as the young,women and people with responsibilities and concerns for others.Therapies to encourage emotional expression and increase cognitive reappraisal may also be helpful for trauma survivors.

Implementation of Clinical Diagnostic Criteria and Universal Symptom Survey Contributed to Lower Magnitude and Faster Resolution of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan

自新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)疫情发生以来,中国大多数的病例集中在武汉市。虽然早期病例数和死亡人数迅速增加,但通过采取多种防控措施,疫情得以快速遏制。纵观全球,疫情已蔓延至全球六大洲的187个国家,确诊病例数已超过300万,这一数字仍在快速增长。在此特殊背景下,有必要对我国疫情防控措施开展科学的、定量的评估,为全球疫情防控提供决策依据。为此,本研究评估了临床诊断标准实施和全城症状排查对武汉市疫情控制的贡献。考虑COVID-19的传播机理、隔离措施等,建立SEIR+Q传播动力学模型。基于武汉市截至2020年2月14日官方公布的每日确诊病例数和未确诊的临床诊断病例数进行建模,并预测2月14日以后的疫情态势。基于实际疫情数据,与模型预测趋势相比较,评价防控措施效果。结果显示,若维持2月14日以前防控措施不变,那么预测将于3月25日和4月29日,每日新增病例数分别降至100例和10例以下,将于5月31日首次现零。而事实上,截至3月6日,武汉市每日新增病例数降至100例以下,截至3月11日降至10例以下,3月18日首次实现零增长,较之模型预测结果分别提前了19 d、49 d和74 d。截至3月30日,实际累计病例数为50 006例,比模型预测值减少19 951例。有效再生数[effective reproductive number, R(t)]分析显示,2月6-10日的第一次全城症状排查后,R(t)显现出下降趋势,2月12-14日的临床诊断标准实施和2月17-19日的第二次全城症状排查后,R(t)显现出较大的降幅,与实际情况较为一致。综上所述,武汉市临床诊断标准的实施和全城症状排查等综合防控措施成效显著,可为世界各国的疫情防控决策提供科学依据。

Hope During the COVID-19 Epidemic Decreased Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Mediated by Perceived Stress:Coping Style Differences Among Patients with COVID-19

Objective:This study aimed to investigate whether perceived stress mediated the relationship between hope and anxiety/depression symptoms among patients with COVID-19 during the epidemic.In addition,the potential moderating effect of coping styles was examined.Methods:From February 26 to March 10,2020,patients with COVID-19 were asked to complete a questionnaire online,which included demographic characteristics,as well as the SCL-90-Anxiety,SCL-90-Depression,Chinese Perceived Stress Scale(CPSS),Herth Hope Index(HHI),and Trait Coping Style Questionnaire(TCSQ).Hierarchical linear regression was performed to explore independent factors of anxiety/depression.A multi-group structural equation modeling with the collected data from patients in the Negative Coping style(NC)group and Positive Coping style(PC)group was used to test the hypothesized mechanism.Results:In total,382 valid questionnaires of patients were obtained,including 96 from NC patients and 286 from PC patients.In the hierarchical linear regression,hope and perceived stress were independent risk factors for both anxiety and depression in the total sample and PC group.However,hope was not independently related to anxiety/depression in the NC group.As hypothesized,the hope of patients had significant and negative indirect effects on both anxiety and depression that were mediated by perceived stress,However,the direct effect from stress on anxiety and depression was stronger for NC patients than for PC patients.Besides,hope had significant direct effects on anxiety/depression in PC patients,but not in NC patients.Conclusion:During the COVID-19 epidemic,perceived stress could mediate the relationship between hope and anxiety/depression symptoms among COVID-19 patients,with coping style moderating this cultivation process.

Government Intervention Measures Effectively Control COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan,China

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak has been brought under control through a nationwide effort,and now it has become a global pandemic and the situation seems grim.We summarized the measures taken in Wuhan and analyzed the effects to comprehensively describe the factors involved in controlling the COVID-19 in China.In China,several measures such as the lockdown of Wuhan,restriction of traffic and communities,increasing hospital beds,nationwide support from medical staff,epidemic prevention equipment and supplies,and establishment of makeshift shelter hospitals have been taken.The lockdown of Wuhan reduced the propagation of cases to other cities in Hubei province and throughout China,traffic and community restrictions reduced the flow of population and the spread of disease,increasing wards and beds and medical personnel reduced the incidence of severe cases and mortality,the establishment of the Fangcang shelter hospitals provided a good isolation and monitoring environment,and further reduced the spread and fatality of the disease.The fact that China was able to control the spread of COVID-19 within three months without a specific drug or vaccine suggests that these measures are more adequate and effective.

Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models

At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization.To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend,parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters.In this study,the authors propose using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm(LMA)to identify epidemic models.This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss–Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters.The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method.The results show that the Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well,while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.

Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020

In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.

Gastrointestinal insights during the COVID-19 epidemic

Coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)has so far caused hundreds of mortalities worldwide.Although respiratory symptoms are the main complication in COVID-19 patients,the disease is also associated with gastrointestinal problems,with diarrhea,nausea,and vomiting being primary COVID-19 symptoms.Thus,cancer and inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)management,stool viral tests,and virus exposure are major concerns in the context of COVID-19 epidemic.In patients with colorectal cancer and IBD,the colonic mucosa exhibits elevated angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor levels,enhancing COVID-19 susceptibility.In some cases,positive viral stool tests may be the only indicator of infection at admission or after leaving quarantine.Without supplemental stool tests,the risk of undetected COVID-19 transmission is high.Moreover,viral exposure during the regular or emergency endoscopic examination should be avoided.We carefully discuss key gastrointestinal concerns with regard to COVID-19 and call for more attention to such problems.

Hospital Bed Allocation Strategy Based on Queuing Theory during the COVID-19 Epidemic

During the current epidemic,it is necessary to ensure the rehabilitation treatment of children with serious illness.At the same time,however,it is essential to effectively prevent cross-infection and prevent infections from occurring within the hospital setting.To resolve this contradiction,the rehabilitation department of Nanjing Children’s Hospital adjusted its bed allocation based on the queuing model,with reference to the regional source and classification of the children’s conditions in the rehabilitation department ward.The original triple rooms were transformed into a double room to enable the treatment of severely sick children coming from other places.A M/G/2 queuing model with priority was also applied to analyze the state of patient admissions.Moreover,patients in Nanjing were also classified into mild and severe cases.The M/M/1 queuing model with priority was used for analysis of this situation,so that severely ill children could be treated in time while patients with mild symptoms could be treated at home.This approach not only eases the bed tension in the ward,but also provides suitable conditions for controlling cross-infection.

Multi-disciplinary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma in primary hospitals in China during the COVID-19 epidemic

Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is a common malignant tumor in the Chinese population.Due to its high degree of malignancy,rapid progression,and poor prognosis,it mainly requires multi-disciplinary treatment(MDT)in the clinic.In December 2019,COVID-19,a novel coronavirus pneumonia,broke out in Wuhan,China.It has rapidly spread across the country,with various places launching a level I response to major public health emergencies and traffic being restricted.Most patients with HCC were only able to attend primary hospitals,while the MDT model for HCC in provincial hospitals was restricted.Therefore,it was a huge task for clinicians in primary hospitals to ensure MDT was given to patients with HCC during the level I response to major public health emergencies.How to formulate a reasonable MDT mode for patients with HCC according to local conditions was worthy of consideration by hepatobiliary surgeons in primary hospitals.

The Relationship Between Uncertainty in Illness,State Anxiety,and the Life Satisfaction of College Students During the COVID-19 Epidemic

Objective:This study aimed to explore the relationship between uncertainty in illness,state anxiety,and the life satisfaction of college students during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:A cluster random sampling method was employed to select a total of 1522 college students from seven universities in China.The uncertainty in illness scale,state anxiety scale,and life satisfaction scale were used.Results:Uncertainty in illness had a negative effect on life satisfaction.Uncertainty in illness had a positive effect on state anxiety.State anxiety had a negative effect on life satisfaction.State anxiety played an important mediating role in the relationship between uncertainty in illness and life satisfaction-its mediating effect accounted for 17.43%of the total effect.Conclusion:A simple mediation model revealed that uncertainty in illness exerts influence both directly on life satisfaction and indirectly via state anxiety.Based upon these elucidated examples,several countermeasures and suggestions for life satisfaction are proposed.

Analysis of the Role of General Practitioners Services in Rural Areas during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19,various regions of China have been rapidly deployed under the leadership of the Central Committee of the Party to actively prevent and control the COVID-19.The rural areas of my country have weak links to the prevention and management of public health emergencies.Problems include lack of medical and health resources and farmers’low awareness of epidemic prevention.Situations that correspond to the prevention and management of the COVID-19 are more serious.As the patient’s first contact and“gatekeeper”in the fight against the epidemic,the general practitioner is responsible for the“first visit-subsequent ongoing intervention”.This article is about the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemics and epidemic prevention in terms of dissemination of knowledge,informed crowd control,joint prevention and control,and standardized management of people.This is a summary of the efforts of general practitioners.Quarantine at home,interactive referrals to medical consortiums,special care for contracted families.The function during the management period aims to analyze the role played by general practitioners during the epidemic and to provide new ideas for the prevention and management of the epidemic.Provide more targeted general practitioner-style services in rural areas to promote the implementation and improvement of health and poverty alleviation.The health level of the rural population provides a theoretical standard.

The Application of the “3 + 1” Mode in the COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control at the Infection Ward of a Designated Comprehensive Hospital for COVID-19 Treatment

Objective: We assess the application effect of the “3 + 1” mode in the COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control at the infection ward of a designated comprehensive hospital for COVID-19 treatment. Method: Based on the features of the inpatients of the infection ward and their relatives, a “3 + 1” mode for the COVID-19 prevention and control is developed to conform to the demands for epidemic prevention and control and the overall prevention and control scheme of the whole hospital. Here, “3” stands for the epidemic prevention and control system, personnel management, and prevention and control measures;“1” stands for COVID-19 testing. Result: From March 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, a total of 3056 patients were hospitalized in the three infection wards. Among them, 265 patients had a fever, and 113 patients had respiratory symptoms. None of them were infected with COVID-19. The participation rate of the test about the knowledge related to COVID-19 and the knowledge mastery rate were both 100% among the medical staff. None of the inpatients and their companions or the medical staff was diagnosed with COVID-19. Conclusion: Thus the “3 + 1” mode proves successful for avoiding nosocomial infection and the spread of the epidemic.