This paper compares two methods to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network a...This paper compares two methods to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.展开更多
The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country'...The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.展开更多
[Objective] By decomposing and studying the relative factors of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province,the policy and suggestion on further keeping the sustainable development were put forward,which provided the refer...[Objective] By decomposing and studying the relative factors of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province,the policy and suggestion on further keeping the sustainable development were put forward,which provided the reference for the carbon emission reduction in other provinces.[Method] Based on the carbon emissions formula which was put forward by Johan,three factors(the energy structure,energy efficiency and economy development) which affected the carbon emissions during 1996-2009 in Guangdong Province were studied by using Divisia decomposition method of logarithmic mean weight(LMD).[Result] The economy development was the main reason that caused the continuous significant increase of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.The improvement of energy efficiency was the important manner for decreasing the energy consumption and the carbon emissions.The adjustment and optimization of energy consumption structure had the huge potential for reducing the carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.[Conclusion] The carbon emissions in Guangdong Province would continue to increase in the future for a long time.When formulated the development strategy in the future,it needed pay special attention to keep the accord development of economy and environment.展开更多
We use the general form of hat matrix and DFBETA measures to detect the influential observations in order to estimate the Divisia price index number when the error structure is first order serial correlation. An examp...We use the general form of hat matrix and DFBETA measures to detect the influential observations in order to estimate the Divisia price index number when the error structure is first order serial correlation. An example is presented with reference to price data of Pakistan. Hat values show the noteworthy findings that the corresponding weights of consumer items have large influence on the parameter estimates and are not affected by the parameter of autoregressive process AR(1). Whereas DFBETAs for Divisia index numbers depend on both the weights and autoregressive parameter.展开更多
We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United State...We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.展开更多
文摘This paper compares two methods to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71273027 and No.71322306)
文摘The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.
文摘[Objective] By decomposing and studying the relative factors of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province,the policy and suggestion on further keeping the sustainable development were put forward,which provided the reference for the carbon emission reduction in other provinces.[Method] Based on the carbon emissions formula which was put forward by Johan,three factors(the energy structure,energy efficiency and economy development) which affected the carbon emissions during 1996-2009 in Guangdong Province were studied by using Divisia decomposition method of logarithmic mean weight(LMD).[Result] The economy development was the main reason that caused the continuous significant increase of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.The improvement of energy efficiency was the important manner for decreasing the energy consumption and the carbon emissions.The adjustment and optimization of energy consumption structure had the huge potential for reducing the carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.[Conclusion] The carbon emissions in Guangdong Province would continue to increase in the future for a long time.When formulated the development strategy in the future,it needed pay special attention to keep the accord development of economy and environment.
文摘We use the general form of hat matrix and DFBETA measures to detect the influential observations in order to estimate the Divisia price index number when the error structure is first order serial correlation. An example is presented with reference to price data of Pakistan. Hat values show the noteworthy findings that the corresponding weights of consumer items have large influence on the parameter estimates and are not affected by the parameter of autoregressive process AR(1). Whereas DFBETAs for Divisia index numbers depend on both the weights and autoregressive parameter.
文摘We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.
