Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide.Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each fa...Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide.Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each factor are essential for the management of forest fire occurrence.The objective of this study is to identify variables that are spatially related to the occurrence and incidence of the forest fire in the State of Durango,Mexico.For this purpose,data from forest fire records for a five-year period were analyzed.The spatial correlations between forest fire occurrence and intensity of land use,susceptibility of vegetation,temperature,precipitation and slope were tested by Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) method,under an Ordinary Least Square estimator.Results show that the spatial pattern of the forest fire in the study area is closely correlated with the intensity of land use,and land use change is one of the main explanatory variables.In addition,vegetation type and precipitation are also the main driving factors.The fitting model indicates obvious link between the variables.Forest fire was found to be the consequence of a particular combination of the environmental factors,and when these factors coexist with human activities,there is high probability of forest fire occurrence.Mandatory regulation of human activities is a key strategy for forest fire prevention.展开更多
In Mexico, forest fires are strongly influenced by environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. A government-based database covering the period 2000-2011 was used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the ...In Mexico, forest fires are strongly influenced by environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. A government-based database covering the period 2000-2011 was used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the factors influencing forest fire size in the state of Durango, Mexico. Ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models were fit to identify the main factors as well as their spatial influence on fire size. Results indicate that fire size is greatly affected by distance to roads, distance to towns, precipitation, temperature, and a population gravity index. The geographically weighted model was better than the ordinary least squares model. The improvement of the former is due to the influence of factors that were found to be non-stationary. These results suggest that geographic location determines the influence of a factor on fire size. While the models can be greatly improved with additional information, the study suggests the need to adopt fire management policies to more efficiently reduce the effect of anthropogenic factors. These policies may include more training for landowners who use fire for clearing, closure of roads, application of thinning, prescribed burning, and fire breaks in perimeters adjacent to roads.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Mexican National Council for Science and Technology (No 2008-01-87972)
文摘Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide.Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each factor are essential for the management of forest fire occurrence.The objective of this study is to identify variables that are spatially related to the occurrence and incidence of the forest fire in the State of Durango,Mexico.For this purpose,data from forest fire records for a five-year period were analyzed.The spatial correlations between forest fire occurrence and intensity of land use,susceptibility of vegetation,temperature,precipitation and slope were tested by Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) method,under an Ordinary Least Square estimator.Results show that the spatial pattern of the forest fire in the study area is closely correlated with the intensity of land use,and land use change is one of the main explanatory variables.In addition,vegetation type and precipitation are also the main driving factors.The fitting model indicates obvious link between the variables.Forest fire was found to be the consequence of a particular combination of the environmental factors,and when these factors coexist with human activities,there is high probability of forest fire occurrence.Mandatory regulation of human activities is a key strategy for forest fire prevention.
基金funded by the National Polytechnic Institute(IPN)project#SIP 20110943–CONACYT,and COFAA
文摘In Mexico, forest fires are strongly influenced by environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. A government-based database covering the period 2000-2011 was used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the factors influencing forest fire size in the state of Durango, Mexico. Ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models were fit to identify the main factors as well as their spatial influence on fire size. Results indicate that fire size is greatly affected by distance to roads, distance to towns, precipitation, temperature, and a population gravity index. The geographically weighted model was better than the ordinary least squares model. The improvement of the former is due to the influence of factors that were found to be non-stationary. These results suggest that geographic location determines the influence of a factor on fire size. While the models can be greatly improved with additional information, the study suggests the need to adopt fire management policies to more efficiently reduce the effect of anthropogenic factors. These policies may include more training for landowners who use fire for clearing, closure of roads, application of thinning, prescribed burning, and fire breaks in perimeters adjacent to roads.
