The ELECTRE(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite)method has gained widespread recognition as one of the most effective multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)methods.Its versatility allows it to be applied in a wid...The ELECTRE(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite)method has gained widespread recognition as one of the most effective multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)methods.Its versatility allows it to be applied in a wide range of areas such as engineering,economics,business,environmental management and many others.This paper aims to provide an overview of the ELECTRE method,including its fundamental concepts,applications,advantages,and limitations.At its core,the ELECTRE method is an outranking family of MCDM techniques,which allows for the direct comparison of alternatives based on a set of criteria.The method takes into account the preferences and importance of decision-makers and generates a ranking of the alternatives based on their relative strengths and weaknesses.The ELECTRE method is a powerful tool for decision-making,and its applicability to a wide range of fields demonstrates its versatility and adaptability.By understanding its concepts,applications,merits,and demerits,decision-makers can use the ELECTRE method to make informed and effective decisions in a variety of contexts.展开更多
Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of ...Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method(SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.展开更多
文摘The ELECTRE(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite)method has gained widespread recognition as one of the most effective multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)methods.Its versatility allows it to be applied in a wide range of areas such as engineering,economics,business,environmental management and many others.This paper aims to provide an overview of the ELECTRE method,including its fundamental concepts,applications,advantages,and limitations.At its core,the ELECTRE method is an outranking family of MCDM techniques,which allows for the direct comparison of alternatives based on a set of criteria.The method takes into account the preferences and importance of decision-makers and generates a ranking of the alternatives based on their relative strengths and weaknesses.The ELECTRE method is a powerful tool for decision-making,and its applicability to a wide range of fields demonstrates its versatility and adaptability.By understanding its concepts,applications,merits,and demerits,decision-makers can use the ELECTRE method to make informed and effective decisions in a variety of contexts.
文摘Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method(SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.
