Textual Research on the July 7,1590 A. D. Southeastern Yongjing Earthquake in Gansu Province

According to historical records,in July of 1590 A.D.,a destructive earthquake occurred near Lintao county in Gansu Province,in which "… city walls and houses collapsed,and countless people and domestic animals were killed".In the same month,Binggou town in eastern Qinghai Province(now northeastern Ledu county),was also damaged by an earthquake.These two earthquakes were listed as two different cases in the published earthquake catalogues,recorded separately as the Lintao M_S5.5 earthquake with epicentral intensity Ⅶ in Gansu Province and the Ledu M_S5.0 earthquake with epicentral intensity Ⅵ in Qinghai Province.However,based on comprehensive analysis of research on historical records and field investigations,it is concluded in this paper that these two earthquakes could be the same one with magnitude 6.5 and epicentral intensity Ⅷ～Ⅸ.Its epicenter was in the Maxian Mt.,which is located in southeastern Yongjing and its seismogenic structure might be the mid-western segments of the north fringe fault zone of Maxian Mt.of Lanzhou.

Textual research of Wudu earthquake in 186 B.C. in Gansu Province, China and discussion on its causative structure

On the basis of the textual research on the historical earthquake data and the field investigation of Wudu earthquake occurred in 186 B.C., we suggest that the earthquake parameters drawn from the present earthquake catalogs are not definite and amendments should be made. The heavily-damaged area of this earthquake should be located between Jugan township of Wudu County and Pingding township of Zhouqu County. Its epicenter should be in the vicinity of Lianghekou in Wudu County with a magnitude of about 7-7 1/4 and an intensity of about IX-X. The major axis direction of the heavily-damaged area should be in the WNW direction that is approximately consistent with the strike of the middle-east segment of Diebu-Bailongjiang active fault zone, and the origin time should match up to that of the latest paleoearthquake event [before （83±46） B.C.] obtained by the trench investigation. Certain seismic rupture evidences are still preserved on this fault segment. Therefore, we propose on the basis of comprehensive analysis that the causative structure of the M 7-7 1/4 Wudu earthquake in 186 B.C. should be in the middle-east segment of Diebu-Bailongjiang active fault zone.

Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast

By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.