Analysis of Nash-Cournot equilibrium for electricity markets considering option contracts

Option contract is one of the most important instruments for power generators developing bidding strategies and hedging market risk. Based on the peculiarities of bid-based-pool （BBP） power markets, a joint two-stage Cournot equilibrium model for option and spot markets is developed, and analytical formulas for market equilibrium are derived using a backward induction method. The impacts of option contract on efficiency of electricity markets and the behaviors of strategic generators are analyzed. The results show that strategic generators will voluntarily participate in strategic option contracting, and the existence of option contract accelerates the degree of competitive intensity in electricity markets and mitigates the market power abuse of generators to a large extent. In order to retain high spot market price and stable revenues, generators are interested in holding extremely high volatility of spot market price.

Sentiment Analysis as a Source of Gaining Competitive Advantage on the Electricity Markets

The electricity retail markets are evolving toward more competitive and customer-oriented. The deployment of smart meters and a wealth of new technologies create customers＇ eagerness for taking control of their electricity consumption. By being better-informed about the energy usage, people are encouraged to switch deals among existing suppliers or move to a new energy provider. Moreover, as customers are more socially interconnected, the Internet portals and social media become a place for discussion, comparison, and evaluation of the available offers. Unfortunately, in case of the energy sector there is a lack of understanding that such information, when taken into account and properly analyzed, can be a completely new and a powerful source of competitive advantage. In the paper, we introduce a solution that the use of quasi real-time automated sentiment analysis on the energy suppliers and the relevant aspects of their offers may enable energy companies to adapt quickly to changing circumstances, prevent potential customer churn, and harness new business opportunities.

Effect of Market Power in Electricity Markets

The main objective of this paper is to show an overview analysis of market power issues.Market power reflects the scarcity of power supply.It is the ability of a particular seller or group of sellers to maintain prices profitably above competitive levels for a significant period of time.Because the electric power system has its own characteristics that are different to other economic systems,both physical factors and economic factors of power system are key elements on this definition.We study some cases here,including different line limit levels,load levels and bid strategy through a market model based on OPF (optimal power flow) with a decommitment algorithm.

Non-convexity Pricing and Allocating Costs in Stochastic Electricity Markets

Stochastic electricity markets have drawn attention due to fast increase of renewable penetrations.This results in two issues:one is to reduce uplift payments arising from non-convexity under renewable uncertainties,and the other one is to allocate reserve costs based on renewable uncertainties.To resolve the first issue,a convex hull pricing method for stochastic electricity markets is proposed.The dual variables of system-wide constraints in a chance-constrained unit commitment model are shown to reduce expected uplift payments,together with developing a linear program to efficiently calculate such prices.To resolve the second issue,an allocation method is proposed to allocate reserve costs to each renewable power plant by explicitly investigating how renewable uncertainties of each renewable power plant affect reserve costs.The proposed methods are validated in a 24-period 3-unit test example and a 24-period 48-unit utility example.

What May Future Electricity Markets Look Like?

Should the organization,design and functioning of electricity markets be taken for granted?Definitely not.While decades of evolution of electricity markets in countries that committed early to restructure their electric power sector made us believe that we may have found the right and future-proof model,the substantially and rapidly evolving context of our power and energy systems is challenging this idea in many ways.Actually,that situation brings both challenges and opportunities.Challenges include accommodation of renewable energy generation,decentralization and support to investment,while opportunities are mainly that advances in technical and social sciences provide us with many more options in terms of future market design.We here take a holistic point of view,by trying to understand where we are coming from with electricity markets and where we may be going.Future electricity markets should be made fit for purpose by considering them as a way to organize and operate a socio-techno-economic system.

Fit for purpose: Modeling wholesale electricity markets realistically with multi-agent deep reinforcement learning

Electricity markets need to continuously evolve to address the growing complexity of a predominantly renewable energy-driven,highly interconnected,and sector-integrated energy system.Simulation models allow testing market designs before implementation,which offers advantages for market robustness and efficiency.This work presents a novel approach to simulate the electricity market by using multi-agent deep reinforcement learning for representing revenue-maximizing market participants.The learning capability makes the agents highly adaptive,thereby facilitating a rigorous performance evaluation of market mechanisms under challenging yet practical conditions.Through distinct test cases that vary the number and size of learning agents in an energy-only market,we demonstrate the ability of the proposed method to diagnose market manipulation and reflect market liquidity.Our method is highly scalable,as demonstrated by a case study of the German wholesale energy market with 145 learning agents.This makes the model well-suited for analyzing large and complex electricity markets.The capability of the presented simulation approach facilitates market design analysis,thereby contributing to the establishment future-proof electricity markets to support the energy transition.

Multi-agent Simulation for Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets Using Reinforcement Learning

In this paper,a theoretical framework of Multiagent Simulation(MAS)is proposed for strategic bidding in electricity markets using reinforcement learning,which consists of two parts:one is a MAS system used to simulate the competitive bidding of the actual electricity market;the other is an adaptive learning strategy bidding system used to provide agents with more intelligent bidding strategies.An ExperienceWeighted Attraction(EWA)reinforcement learning algorithm(RLA)is applied to the MAS model and a new MAS method is presented for strategic bidding in electricity markets using a new Improved EWA(IEWA).From both qualitative and quantitative perspectives,it is compared with three other MAS methods using the Roth-Erev(RE),Q-learning and EWA.The results show that the performance of the MAS method using IEWA is proved to be better than the others.The four MAS models using four RLAs are built for strategic bidding in electricity markets.Through running the four MAS models,the rationality and correctness of the four MAS methods are verified for strategic bidding in electricity markets using reinforcement learning.

Economic potentials of energy storage technologies in electricity markets with renewables

The increasing penetration of renewables in power systems urgently entails the utilization of energy storage technologies.As the development of energy storage technologies depends highly on the profitability in electricity markets,to evaluate the economic potentials for various types of energy storage technologies under the compre-hensive market environment is of great significance.To this end,this study aims at conducting a quantitative analysis on the economic potentials for typical energy storage technologies by establishing a joint clearing model for electric energy and ancillary service(AS)markets considering the operating features of energy storage systems(ESSs).Furthermore,a test system is adopted for numerical analysis that accurately represents for the real-world operation characteristics of power systems in China,with which the market prices,and operation schedules and profitability of ESSs are comparatively studied.The proposed methodology and results could provide benefi-cial references for the modifications on electricity markets and the development of ESSs towards the increasing penetration of renewables in power systems.

Analyzing the Wind-Dominant Electricity Market under Coexistence of Regulated and Deregulated Power Trading

Currently,both regulated and deregulated power trading exist in China’s power system,which has caused imbalanced funds in the electricity market.In this paper,a simulation analysis of the electricity market with wind energy resources is conducted,and the calculation methods of unbalanced funds are investigated systematically.In detail,the calculation formulas of unbalanced funds are illustrated based on their definition,and a two-track electricity market clearing model is established.Firstly,the concept of the dual-track system is explained,and the specific calculation formulas of various types of unbalanced funds are provided.Next,considering the renewable energy consumption,the market clearing model based on DC power flow is constructed and solved;by combining fitting methods of mid-and long-term curves,the unbalanced funds are calculated based on clearing results and formulas.

Energy Storage Operation Modes in Typical Electricity Market and Their Implications for China

As the Chinese government proposes ambitious plans to promote low-carbon transition,energy storage will play a pivotal role in China’s future power system.However,due to the lack of a mature electricity market environment and corresponding mechanisms,current energy storage in China faces problems such as unclear operational models,insufficient cost recovery mechanisms,and a single investment entity,making it difficult to support the rapid development of the energy storage industry.In contrast,European and American countries have already embarked on certain practices in energy storage operation models.Through exploration of key issues such as investment entities,market participation forms,and cost recovery channels in both front and back markets,a wealth of mature experiences has been accumulated.Therefore,this paper first summarizes the existing practices of energy storage operation models in North America,Europe,and Australia’s electricity markets separately from front and back markets,finding that perfect market mechanisms and reasonable subsidy policies are among the main drivers for promoting the rapid development of energy storage markets.Subsequently,combined with the actual development of China’s electricity market,it explores three key issues affecting the construction of costsharing mechanisms for energy storage under market conditions:Market participation forms,investment and operation modes,and cost recovery mechanisms.Finally,in line with the development expectations of China’s future electricitymarket,suggestions are proposed fromfour aspects:Market environment construction,electricity price formation mechanism,cost sharing path,and policy subsidy mechanism,to promote the healthy and rapid development of China’s energy storage industry.

Risk Assessment and Management of Electricity Markets: A Review with Suggestions

Power industry deregulation has changed the determination of electricity prices from administration approval to market clearing.Affected by multiple random factors,the market prices may fluctuate sharply or significantly increase under extreme conditions,jeopardizing the normal operation of markets.In order to effectively deal with market risks,it is essential to develop the corresponding risk-control mechanisms,especially for spot market pilots.Therefore,this paper presents an overview on the risk assessment and management schemes which are widely used in the electricity markets.First,the key issues for evaluating market risks through inherent uncertainties and market power are summarized,including analysis models and quantitative metrics.Moreover,a comprehensive review of risk management and market supervision in typical electricity markets is presented.Specifically,a multi-time risk-control framework utilized by regulators is introduced to demonstrate the available schemes to reduce market risks.In addition,the various derivative contracts and portfolio optimizations are reviewed to help market participants hedge against market risks.Finally,suggestions for the development of risk management measures in spot market pilots are proposed.The summarized experience in this paper can provide useful references and guidelines for developing risk-control mechanisms in electricity markets.

Hourly modelling of Thermal Hydrogen electricity markets

The hourly operation of Thermal Hydrogen electricity markets is modelled.The economic values for all applicable chemical commodities are quantified(syngas,ammonia,methanol and oxygen)and an hourly electricity model is constructed to mimic the dispatch of key technologies:bi-directional power plants,dual-fuel heating systems and plug-in fuel-cell hybrid electric vehicles.The operation of key technologies determines hourly electricity prices and an optimization model adjusts the capacity to minimize electricity prices yet allow all generators to recover costs.We examine 12 cost scenarios for renewables,nuclear and natural gas;the results demonstrate emissions-free,‘energy-only’electricity markets whose supply is largely dominated by renewables.The economic outcome is made possible in part by seizing the full supply-chain value from electrolysis(both hydrogen and oxygen),which allows an increased willingness to pay for(renewable)electricity.The wholesale electricity prices average$25-$45/MWh,or just slightly higher than the assumed levelized cost of renewable energy.This implies very competitive electricity prices,particularly given the lack of need for‘scarcity’pricing,capacity markets,dedicated electricity storage or underutilized electric transmission and distribution capacity.

Benefits of Stochastic Optimization for Scheduling Energy Storage in Wholesale Electricity Markets

We propose a two-stage stochastic model for optimizing the operation of energy storage. The model captures two important features: uncertain real-time prices when day-ahead operational commitments are made;and the price impact of charging and discharging energy storage. We demonstrate that if energy storage has full flexibility to make real-time adjustments to its day-ahead commitment and market prices do not respond to charging and discharging decisions, there is no value in using a stochastic modeling framework, i.e., the value of stochastic solution is always zero. This is because in such a case the energy storage behaves purely as a financial arbitrageur day ahead, which can be captured using a deterministic model.We show also that prices responding to its operation can make it profitable for energy storage to "waste" energy, for instance by charging and discharging simultaneously, which is normally sub-optimal. We demonstrate our model and how to calibrate the price-response functions from historical data with a practical case study.

Evolutionary game-based optimization of green certificate-carbon emission right-electricity joint market for thermal-wind-photovoltaic power system

With the increasing proportion of renewable energy in the power market,the demands on government financial subsidies are gradually increasing.Thus,a joint green certificate-carbon emission right-electricity multi-market trading process is proposed to study the market-based strategy for renewable energy.Considering the commodity characteristics of green certificates and carbon emission rights,the dynamic cost models of green certificates and carbon rights are constructed based on the Rubinstein game and ladder pricing models.Furthermore,considering the irrational bidding behavior of energy suppliers in the actual electricity market,an evolutionary game based multi-market bidding optimization model is presented.Subsequently,it is solved using a composite differential evolutionary algorithm.Finally,the case study results reveal that the proposed model can increase profits and the consumption rate of renewable energy and reduce carbon emission.

Statistical Measure for Risk-seeking Stochastic Wind Power Offering Strategies in Electricity Markets

This study proposes a statistical measure and a stochastic optimization model for generating risk-seeking wind power offering strategies in electricity markets. Inspired by the value at risk(VaR) to quantify risks in the worst-case scenarios of a profit distribution, a statistical measure is proposed to quantify potential high profits in the best-case scenarios of a profit distribution,which is referred to as value at best(VaB)in the best-case scenarios. Then, a stochastic optimization model based on VaB is developed for a risk-seeking wind power producer, which is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem. By adjusting the parameters in the proposed model, the wind power producer can flexibly manage the potential high profits in the best-case scenarios from the probabilistic perspective. Finally, the proposed statistical measure and riskseeking stochastic optimization model are verified through case studies.

Daily rolling estimation of carbon emission cost of coal-fired units considering long-cycle interactive operation simulation of carbon-electricity market

The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.

Inter-Provincial Transaction Model in Two-Level ElectricityMarket Considering Carbon Emission and Consumption Responsibility Weights

In the context of the joint operation of China’s intra-provincial markets and inter-provincial trading,how to meet the load demand and energy consumption using inter-provincial renewable energy trading is a key problem.The combined operation of intra-provincial and inter-provincial markets provides a new way for provincial power companies to optimize and clear the intra-provincial power market,complete the intra-provincial consumption responsibility weight index,and consume renewable energy across provinces and regions.This paper combines power generation and consumption within the province,uses inter-provincial renewable energy trading tomeet the load demand within the province and completes the index of intra-provincial consumption responsibility weights.The intra-provincial market trading and inter-provincial market clearing are respectively taken as the upper and lower levels of the model.Under the two-level electricity market operation framework,the upper-level model aims to minimize the expected total operating cost within the province considering the carbon emission cost and the weight of the consumption responsibility,while the lower-level model aims to minimize the inter-provincial renewable energy purchasing cost.Finally,the influence of inter-provincial transaction mechanism,risk aversion coefficient,voucher price,and responsibility weight on operating cost is analyzed.Simulation is used to verify that the proposed model can meet the requirements of the provincial load power consumption and the consumption responsibility weight index,and promote the consumption of renewable energy.

A Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Scheme for Power Market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important aspect of promoting competition and safeguarding the interests of participants in electricity market. As market participants, both producers and consumers intent to contribute more efforts on developing appropriate price forecasting scheme to maximize their profits. This paper introduces a time series method developed by Box-Jenkins that applies autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to address a best-fitted time-domain model based on a time series of historical price data. Using the model’s parameters determined from the stationarized time series of prices, the price forecasts in UK electricity market for 1 step ahead are estimated in the next day and the next week. The most suitable models are selected for them separately after comparing their prediction outcomes. The data of historical prices are obtained from UK three-month Reference Price Data from April 1st to July7th 2010.

Management of Peak Loads in an Emerging Electricity Market

An electricity market is a trading platform provided by the actors in the electricity sector to sell and buy electricity while maintaining the stability of the transmission network and minimizing energy losses.The management of electrical energy for rational use consists of all the operations that the consumers can carry out in order to minimize their electricity bill,while the producers optimize their benefits and the transmission infrastructure.The reduction of active and reactive power consumption and the smoothing of daily and yearly load profiles are the main objectives in this work.Many developed countries already have properly functioning electricity markets,but developing countries are still in their infancy of deregulated electricity markets.The major tools used in smoothing the load profiles include decentralized generation,energy storage and demand response.A load power smoothing control strategy is proposed to smooth the load power fluctuations of the distribution network.The required power change is determined by evaluating the power fluctuation rate of the load,and then the required power change is allocated to some generators or to some stored reserves.Otherwise,the consumers are made to curtail their power consumption.The ideas proposed in this work provide important opportunities for energy policy makers and regulators.These ideas would only be feasible if there exists real-time communication among the actors in the electricity market.The results indicate that as much as 1100 Megawatt-hours of energy can be stored for smoothing the load profile,when applied to the Southern Interconnected Grid of the Cameroon power system;and that Time of Use(TOU)pricing could be used instead of rotating blackouts in case of energy shortage.

Methodology for Obtaining Electricity-Price Patterns in Customer Response Programs

The main objective of electricity regulators when establishing electricity markets is to decrease the cost of electricity through competition. However, this scenario cannot be achieved without a full participation of the electricity demand by reacting against electricity prices. The aim of this research is to develop tools for helping customers and aggregators to join price and demand response programs, while helping them to hedge against the risk of short-term price volatility. In this way, the capacity of and hybrid methodology （Self-Organizing Maps and Statistical Ward＇s Linkage） to classify high electricity market prices is analysed. Besides, with the help of Non-Parametric Estimation, some price-patterns were found in the abovementioned clusters. The contained knowledge within these patterns supplies customer market-based information on which to base its energy use decisions. The interest for this participation of customers in markets is growing in developed countries to obtain a higher elasticity in demand. Results show the capability of this approach to improve data management and select coherent policies to accomplish cleared demand offers amongst different price scenarios in a more flexible way.