Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.

Fractionally Spaced Equalization Algorithms in 60GHz Communication System

Several fractionally spaced equalizers(FSE) which could be used in 60 GHz systems are presented in this paper. For 60 GHz systems, low-power equalization algorithms are favorable. We focus on FSE in both time domain(TD) and frequency domain(FD) in order to meet different complexity requirements of 60 GHz systems. Compared with symbol spaced equalizer(SSE), FSE can relax the requirement of sampling synchronization hardware significantly. Extensive simulation results show that our equalization algorithms not only eliminate ISI efficiently, but are also robust to timing synchronization errors.

A Modified T/2 Fractionally Spaced Coordinate Transformation Blind Equalization Algorithm

When T/2 Fractionally Spaced blind Equalization Algorithm based Constant Modulus Algorithm (T/2-FSE- CMA) is employed for equalizing higher order Quadrature Amplitude Modulation signals (QAM), it has disadvantages of low convergence speed and large Mean Square Error (MSE). For overcoming these disadvantages, a Modified T/2 Fractionally Spaced blind Equalization algorithm based on Coordinate Transformation and CMA (T/2-FSE-MCTCMA) was proposed by analyzing the character of 16QAM signal constellations. In the proposed algorithm, real and imaginary parts of input signal of T/2 fractionally spaced blind equalizer are equalized, respectively, and output signals of equalizer are transformed to the same unit circle by coordinate transformation method, a new error function is defined after making coordinate transformation and used to adjust weight vector of T/2 fractionally spaced blind equalizer. The proposed algorithm can overcome large misjudgments of T/2 fractionally spaced blind equalization algorithm for equalizing multi-modulus higher order QAM. Simulation results with underwater acoustic channel models demonstrate that the proposed T/2-FSE-MCTCMA algorithm outperforms T/2 Fractionally Spaced blind Equalization algorithm bas-ed on Coordinate Transformation and CMA (T/2-FSE-CTCMA) and the T/2-FSE-CMA in convergence rate and MSE.

Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Fractionally Integrated Time Series

The asymptotic theory for nonlinear transformations of fractionally integrated time series is developed. By the use of fractional Occupation Times Formula, various nonlinear functions of fractionally integrated series such as ARFIMA time series are studied, and the asymptotic distributions of the sample moments of such functions are obtained and analyzed. The transformations considered in this paper includes a variety of functions such as regular functions, integrable functions and asymptotically homogeneous functions that are often used in practical nonlinear econometric analysis. It is shown that the asymptotic theory of nonlinear transformations of original and normalized fractionally integrated processes is diffent from that of fractionally integrated processes, but is similar to the asymptotic theory of nonlinear transformations of integrated processes.

An Orthogonal Wavelet Transform Fractionally Spaced Blind Equalization Algorithm Based on the Optimization of Genetic Algorithm

An orthogonal wavelet transform fractionally spaced blind equalization algorithm based on the optimization of genetic algorithm(WTFSE-GA) is proposed in viewof the lowconvergence rate,large steady-state mean square error and local convergence of traditional constant modulus blind equalization algorithm(CMA).The proposed algorithm can reduce the signal autocorrelation through the orthogonal wavelet transform of input signal of fractionally spaced blind equalizer,and decrease the possibility of CMA local convergence by using the global random search characteristics of genetic algorithm to optimize the equalizer weight vector.The proposed algorithm has the faster convergence rate and smaller mean square error compared with FSE and WT-FSE.The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is proved by computer simulation of underwater acoustic channels.

Analytical solution of fractionally damped beam by Adomian decomposition method

The analytical solution of a viscoelastic continuous beam whose damping characteristics are described in terms of a fractional derivative of arbitrary order was derived by means of the AdoInian decomposition method. The solution contains arbitrary initial conditions and zero input. For specific analysis, the initial conditions were assumed homogeneous, and the input force was treated as a special process with a particular beam. Two simple cases, step and impulse function responses, were considered respectively. Subsequently, some figures were plotted to show the displacement of the beam under different sets of parameters including different orders of the fractional derivatives.

Applying multivariate-fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios

This study examines emerging market(EM)local bonds from a portfolio risk perspective and suggests methodologies for risk evaluation,on which the literature is limited.Despite the growth of EM bond funds in recent years,comprehensive studies regarding this industry have been scarce.In light of this,203 different local bonds of EM countries—Indonesia,Brazil,India,South Africa,Mexico,and Turkey—are elaborated in terms of return,volatility,and cross-correlation features.This study focuses on an untouched field—long memory properties—and the application of fractional models to EM bond portfolios.Based on the outcomes of a dynamic conditional correlation and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity approach and related value at risk analysis,the study finds that fractional models are useful tools for risk management,as they deliver satisfactory empirical results for several static and dynamic versions of EM bond portfolios.

Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model with Level Shift Intervention

In this paper, we introduce the class of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity?(ARFIMA-GARCH) models with level shift type intervention that are capable of capturing three key features of time series: long range dependence, volatility?and level shift. The main concern is on detection of mean and volatility level shift in a fractionally integrated time series with volatility. We will denote such a time series as level shift autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (LS-ARFIMA) and level shift generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (LS-GARCH). Test statistics that are useful to examine if mean and volatility level shifts are present in an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-GARCH) model are derived. Quasi maximum likelihood estimation of the model is also considered.

NON-EXISTENCE FOR FRACTIONALLY DAMPED FRACTIONAL DIFFERENTIAL PROBLEMS

In this paper, we are concerned with a fractional differential inequality containing a lower order fractional derivative and a polynomial source term in the right hand side. A non-existence of non-trivial global solutions result is proved in an appropriate space by means of the test-function method. The range of blow up is found to depend only on the lower order derivative. This is in line with the well-known fact for an internally weakly damped wave equation that solutions will converge to solutions of the parabolic part.

Dynamic Response and Oscillating Behaviour of Fractionally Damped Beam

This paper presents the numerical solution of a viscoelastic continuous beam whose damping behaviours are defined in term of fractional derivatives of arbitrary order.Homotopy Perturbation Method(HPM)is used to obtain the dynamic response with respect to unit impulse load.Obtained results are depicted in term of plots.Comparisons are made with the analytic solutions obtained by Zu-feng and Xiao-yan(2007)to show the effectiveness and validation of the present method.

Correction to:Applying multivariate‑fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios

Correction to:Demirel and Unal Financial Innovation(2020)6:50 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-020-00203-3 After publication of this article(Demirel and Unal 2020),it is noticed that Table 7 contained an error.The heading‘Long Term Bond Portfolio’should be replaced by two subheadings“MV-Optimal Portfolios Average(Short-Term)”and“MV-Optimal Portfolios Average(Long-Term)”.

Modeling Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Seasonal Level Shift Intervention

This paper introduces the class of seasonal fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average-generalized conditional heteroskedastisticty (SARFIMA- GARCH) models, with level shift type intervention that are capable of capturing simultaneously four key features of time series: seasonality, long range dependence, volatility and level shift. The main focus is on modeling seasonal level shift (SLS) in fractionally integrated and volatile processes. A natural extension of the seasonal level shift detection test of the mean for a realization of time series satisfying SLS-SARFIMA and SLS-GARCH models was derived. Test statistics that are useful to examine if seasonal level shift in an SARFIMA-GARCH model is statistically plausible were established. Estimation of SLS-SARFIMA and SLS-GARCH parameters was also considered.

Intermittent disturbance mechanical behavior and fractional deterioration mechanical model of rock under complex true triaxial stress paths

Mechanical excavation,blasting,adjacent rockburst and fracture slip that occur during mining excavation impose dynamic loads on the rock mass,leading to further fracture of damaged surrounding rock in three-dimensional high-stress and even causing disasters.Therefore,a novel complex true triaxial static-dynamic combined loading method reflecting underground excavation damage and then frequent intermittent disturbance failure is proposed.True triaxial static compression and intermittent disturbance tests are carried out on monzogabbro.The effects of intermediate principal stress and amplitude on the strength characteristics,deformation characteristics,failure characteristics,and precursors of monzogabbro are analyzed,intermediate principal stress and amplitude increase monzogabbro strength and tensile fracture mechanism.Rapid increases in microseismic parameters during rock loading can be precursors for intermittent rock disturbance.Based on the experimental result,the new damage fractional elements and method with considering crack initiation stress and crack unstable stress as initiation and acceleration condition of intermittent disturbance irreversible deformation are proposed.A novel three-dimensional disturbance fractional deterioration model considering the intermediate principal stress effect and intermittent disturbance damage effect is established,and the model predicted results align well with the experimental results.The sensitivity of stress states and model parameters is further explored,and the intermittent disturbance behaviors at different f are predicted.This study provides valuable theoretical bases for the stability analysis of deep mining engineering under dynamic loads.

Left bundle branch pacing vs biventricular pacing in heart failure patients with left bundle branch block:A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Left bundle branch pacing(LBBP)is a novel pacing modality of cardiac resynchronization therapy(CRT)that achieves more physiologic native ventricular activation than biventricular pacing(BiVP).AIM To explore the validity of electromechanical resynchronization,clinical and echocardiographic response of LBBP-CRT.METHODS Systematic review and Meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the standard guidelines as mentioned in detail in the methodology section.RESULTS In our analysis,the success rate of LBBP-CRT was determined to be 91.1%.LBBP CRT significantly shortened QRS duration,with significant improvement in echocardiographic parameters,including left ventricular ejection fraction,left ventricular end-diastolic diameter and left ventricular end-systolic diameter in comparison with BiVP-CRT.CONCLUSION A significant reduction in New York Heart Association class and B-type natriuretic peptide levels was also observed in the LBBP-CRT group vs BiVP-CRT group.Lastly,the LBBP-CRT cohort had a reduced pacing threshold at follow-up as compared to BiVP-CRT.

Efficacy of stromal vascular fraction for knee osteoarthritis:A prospective,single-centre,non-randomized study with 2 years follow-up

BACKGROUND Current osteoarthritis(OA)treatments focus on symptom relief without addressing the underlying disease process.In regenerative medicine,current treatments have limitations.In regenerative medicine,more research is needed for intra-articular stromal vascular fraction(SVF)injections in OA,including dosage optimization,long-term efficacy,safety,comparisons with other treatments,and mechanism exploration.AIM To compare the efficacy of intra-articular SVF with corticosteroid(ICS)injections in patients with primary knee OA.METHODS The study included 50 patients with Kellgren-Lawrence grades II and III OA.Patients were randomly assigned(1:1)to receive either a single intra-articular SVF injection(group A)or a single intra-articular ICS(triamcinolone)(group B)injection.Patients were followed up at 1,3,6,12,and 24 months.Visual analog score(VAS)and International Knee Documentation Committee(IKDC)scores were administered before the procedure and at all followups.The safety of SVF in terms of adverse and severe adverse events was recorded.Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS Version 26.0,IBM Corp,Chicago,IL,United States.RESULTS Both groups had similar demographics and baseline clinical characteristics.Follow-up showed minor patient loss,resulting in 23 and 24 in groups A and B respectively.Group A experienced a notable reduction in pain,with VAS scores decreasing from 7.7 to 2.4 over 24 months,compared to a minor reduction from 7.8 to 6.2 in Group B.This difference in pain reduction in group A was statistically significant from the third month onwards.Additionally,Group A showed significant improvements in knee functionality,with IKDC scores rising from 33.4 to 83.10,whereas Group B saw a modest increase from 36.7 to 45.16.The improvement in Group A was statistically significant from 6 months and maintained through 24 months.CONCLUSION Our study demonstrated that intra-articular administration of SVF can lead to reduced pain and improved knee function in patients with primary knee OA.More adequately powered,multi-center,double-blinded,randomised clinical trials with longer follow-ups are needed to further establish safety and justify its clinical use.

A sustainable process to 100%bio-based nylons integrated chemical and biological conversion of lignocellulose

Considerable progress has been made in recent years to the development of sustainable polymers from bio-based feedstocks.In this study,100%bio-based nylons were prepared via an integrated chemical and biological process from lignocellulose.These novel nylons were obtained by the melt polymerization of 3-propyladipic acid derived from lignin and 1,5-pentenediamine/1,4-butanediamine derived from carbohydrate sugar.Central to the concept is a three-step noble metal free catalytic chemical funnelling sequence(Raney Ni mediated reductive catalytic fractionation-reductive funnelling-oxidative funnelling),which allowed for obtaining a single component 3-propyladipic acid from lignin with high efficiency.The structural and thermodynamic properties of the obtained nylons have been systematically investigated,and thus obtained transparent bio-based nylons exhibited higher Mw(>32,000)and excellent thermal stability(Td5%>265℃).Considering their moderate Tg and good melt strength,these transparent bio-based nylons could serve as promising functional additives or temperature-responsive materials.

Understanding and controlling the variables for stromal vascular fraction therapy

In regenerative medicine,the isolation of mesenchymal stromal cells(MSCs)from the adipose tissue’s stromal vascular fraction(SVF)is a critical area of study.Our review meticulously examines the isolation process of MSCs,starting with the extraction of adipose tissue.The choice of liposuction technique,anatomical site,and immediate processing are essential to maintain cell functionality.We delve into the intricacies of enzymatic digestion,emphasizing the fine-tuning of enzyme concentrations to maximize cell yield while preventing harm.The review then outlines the filtration and centrifugation techniques necessary for isolating a purified SVF,alongside cell viability assessments like flow cytometry,which are vital for confirming the efficacy of the isolated MSCs.We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of using autologous vs allogeneic SVF sources,touching upon immunocompatibility and logistical considerations,as well as the variability inherent in donor-derived cells.Anesthesia choices,the selection between hypo-dermic needles vs liposuction cannulas,and the role of adipose tissue lysers in achieving cellular dissociation are evaluated for their impact on SVF isolation.Centrifugation protocols are also analyzed for their part in ensuring the integrity of the SVF.The necessity for standardized MSC isolation protocols is highlighted,promoting reproducibility and successful clinical application.We encourage ongoing research to deepen the understanding of MSC biology and therapeutic action,aiming to further the field of regenerative medicine.The review concludes with a call for rigorous research,interdisciplinary collaboration,and strict adherence to ethical and regulatory standards to safeguard patient safety and optimize treatment outcomes with MSCs.

Interaction between systemic iron parameters and left ventricular structure and function in the preserved ejection fraction population:a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND Left ventricular(LV)remodeling and diastolic function in people with heart failure(HF)are correlated with iron status;however,the causality is uncertain.This Mendelian randomization(MR)study investigated the bidirectional causal relationship between systemic iron parameters and LV structure and function in a preserved ejection fraction population.METHODS Transferrin saturation(TSAT),total iron binding capacity(TIBC),and serum iron and ferritin levels were extracted as instrumental variables for iron parameters from meta-analyses of public genome-wide association studies.Individuals without myocardial infarction history,HF,or LV ejection fraction(LVEF)<50%(n=16,923)in the UK Biobank Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study constituted the outcome dataset.The dataset included LV end-diastolic volume,LV endsystolic volume,LV mass(LVM),and LVM-to-end-diastolic volume ratio(LVMVR).We used a two-sample bidirectional MR study with inverse variance weighting(IVW)as the primary analysis method and estimation methods using different algorithms to improve the robustness of the results.RESULTS In the IVW analysis,one standard deviation(SD)increased in TSAT significantly correlated with decreased LVMVR(β=-0.1365;95%confidence interval[CI]:-0.2092 to-0.0638;P=0.0002)after Bonferroni adjustment.Conversely,no significant relationships were observed between other iron and LV parameters.After Bonferroni correction,reverse MR analysis showed that one SD increase in LVEF significantly correlated with decreased TSAT(β=-0.0699;95%CI:-0.1087 to-0.0311;P=0.0004).No heterogeneity or pleiotropic effects evidence was observed in the analysis.CONCLUSIONS We demonstrated a causal relationship between TSAT and LV remodeling and function in a preserved ejection fraction population.

Ethyl acetate fraction of Sargassum pallidum extract attenuates particulate matter-induced oxidative stress and inflammation in keratinocytes and zebrafish

Objective:To evaluate the effect of the ethyl acetate fraction derived from Sargassum pallidum extract against particulate matter(PM)-induced oxidative stress and inflammation in HaCaT cells and zebrafish.Methods:HaCaT cells and zebrafish were used to evaluate the protective effects of the ethyl acetate fraction of Sargassum pallidum extract against PM-induced oxidative stress and inflammation.The production of nitric oxide(NO),intracellular ROS,prostaglandin E_(2)(PGE_(2)),and pro-inflammatory cytokines,and the expression levels of COX-2,iNOS,and NF-κB were evaluated in PM-induced HaCaT cells.Furthermore,the levels of ROS,NO,and lipid peroxidation were assessed in the PM-exposed zebrafish model.Results:The ethyl acetate fraction of Sargassum pallidum extract significantly decreased the production of NO,intracellular ROS,and PGE_(2) in PM-induced HaCaT cells.In addition,the fraction markedly suppressed the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and inhibited the expression levels of COX-2,iNOS,and NF-κB.Furthermore,it displayed remarkable protective effects against PM-induced inflammatory response and oxidative stress,represented by the reduction of NO,ROS,and lipid peroxidation in zebrafish.Conclusions:The ethyl acetate fraction of Sargassum pallidum extract exhibits a protective effect against PM-induced oxidative stress and inflammation both in vitro and in vivo and has the potential as a candidate for the development of pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical products.

Multi-Material Topology Optimization for Spatial-Varying Porous Structures

This paper aims to propose a topology optimization method on generating porous structures comprising multiple materials.The mathematical optimization formulation is established under the constraints of individual volume fraction of constituent phase or total mass,as well as the local volume fraction of all phases.The original optimization problem with numerous constraints is converted into a box-constrained optimization problem by incorporating all constraints to the augmented Lagrangian function,avoiding the parameter dependence in the conventional aggregation process.Furthermore,the local volume percentage can be precisely satisfied.The effects including the globalmass bound,the influence radius and local volume percentage on final designs are exploited through numerical examples.The numerical results also reveal that porous structures keep a balance between the bulk design and periodic design in terms of the resulting compliance.All results,including those for irregular structures andmultiple volume fraction constraints,demonstrate that the proposedmethod can provide an efficient solution for multiple material infill structures.