RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY

Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given,go a step further the definition and characters of random variable with fuzzy probability (RVFP) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability,as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.

PROCEDURE FOR COMPUTING THE POSSIBILITY AND FUZZY PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF STRUCTURES

Traditionally, the calculation of reliability of fuzzy random structures is based on the well-known formulation of probability of fuzzy events. But sometimes the results of this formulation will not indicating the real state of safety of fuzzy-random structures. Based on the possibility theory, a computational procedure for the reliability analysis of fuzzy failure problems and random-fuzzy failure problems of mechanical structures that contain fuzzy variables were presented. A procedure for the analysis of structural reliability of problems of fuzzy failure criterion was also proposed. The failure possibility of fuzzy structures and possibility distribution of the probability of failure of fuzzy-random structures can be given by the proposed methods. It is shown that for the hybrid probabilistic and fuzzy reliability problems, the probability of failure should be suitably taken as a fuzzy variable in order to indicate the real safety of system objectively. Two examples illustrate the validity and rationality of the proposed methods.

Robust Design Rule with Definite Purpose Character Based on Fuzzy Probability and Study of its Characteristics

The design target with definite purpose character of product quality wasdescribed in a real fuzzy number ( named fuzzy target for short in this paper), and its membershipjunctions in common use were given. According to the fuzzy probability theory and the robust designprinciple, the robust design rule based on fuzzy probability (named fuzzy robust design rule forshort) was put forward and its validity and practicability were analyzed and tested with a designexample. The theoretical analysis and the design examples make clear that, while the fuzzy robustdesign rule was used, the fine design effect can be obtained and the fuzzy robust design rule can bevery suitable for the choice of the membership function of the fuzzy target; so it has a particularadvantage.

Decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff

A novel method for decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff is presented. The consistency of the fuzzy probability assessment is considered. A fuzzy aggregate algorithm is used to indicate the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives. The level sets of each fuzzy expected payoff are then obtained by solving linear programming models. Based on a defuzzification function associated with the level sets of fuzzy number and a numerical integration formula (Newton-Cotes formula), an effective approach to rank the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives is also developed to determine the best alternative. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed method.

Moment-independence global sensitivity analysis for the system with fuzzy failure state and its Kriging method

For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence global sensitivity analysis（GSA） model is proposed to quantitatively measure these effects. According to the fuzzy random theory, the fuzzy failure state is transformed into an equivalent new random variable for the system, and the complementary function of the membership function of the fuzzy failure state is defined as the cumulative distribution function（CDF） of the new random variable. After introducing the new random variable, the equivalent performance function of the original problem is built. The difference between the unconditional fuzzy probability of failure and conditional fuzzy probability of failure is defined as the moment-independent GSA index. In order to solve the proposed GSA index efficiently, the Kriging-based algorithm is developed to estimate the defined moment-independence GSA index. Two engineering examples are employed to verify the feasibility and rationality of the presented GSA model, and the advantages of the developed Kriging method are also illustrated.

Fuzzy Random Reliability Analysis of Blocky Rock-Mass in Slopes

Slope stability assessment is a geotechnical problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. In clas- sical reliability analysis, only the randomness of uncertainties is taken into account but the fuzziness of them is ignored. In this paper, a fuzzy probability approach and a fuzzy JC method are presented for the reliability analysis. The two methods have been applied to stability analysis of a certain slope of permanent ship lock in the Three-Gorges Project. The results obtained from these two methods are basically the same. However, compared with the fuzzy probability means, the fuzzy JC method can reflect the real situation better because it uses a fuzzy-based analysis applied to not only limit state equation but also mechanical parameters.

There Also Can Be Fuzziness in Quantum States Itself—Breaking through the Framework and the Principle of Quantum Mechanics

In this paper, an attempt is made to synthesize fuzzy mathematics and quantum mechanics. By using the method of fuzzy mathematics to blur the probability (wave) of quantum mechanics, the concept of fuzzy wave function is put forward to describe the fuzzy quantum probability. By applying the non-fuzzy formula of fuzzy quantity and Schrödinger wave equation of quantum mechanics, the membership function equation is established to describe the evolution of the fuzzy wave function. The concept of membership degree amplitude is introduced to calculate fuzzy probability amplitude. Some important concepts in fuzzy mathematics are also illustrated.

Relativistic Information Entropy on Uncertainty Analysis

in this paper, a new approach to relativistic information entropy is used to assess some relative uncertainties in structural reliability assessment. This approach is composed of the information theory and the relativistic theory, and can be used to measure the relativity of parameter uncertainty and system uncertainty in structural reliability theory based on the same generalized relativistic reference system. Therefore, the structural reliability assessment can be assessed reasonably by the approach.

Data fusion of radar and IFF for aircraft identification

The problem of identification of friend-or-foe aircraft in the actual application condition is addressed.A hybrid algorithm combining fuzzy neutral network with probability factor（FNNP）,multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the DempsterShafer（D-S） theory is proposed.This hybrid algorithm constructs a complete process from generating the fuzzy database to the final identification,realizes the identification of friend-or-foe automatically if the training samples or expert’s experience can be obtained,and reduces the effect of uncertainties in the process of identification.At the same time,the whole algorithm can update the identification result with the augment of observations.The performance of the proposed algorithm is assessed by simulations.Results show that the proposed algorithm can successfully deduce the aircraft’s identity even if the observations have measurement errors.

Moment Method Based on Fuzzy Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for a Degradable Structural System

For a degradable structural system with fuzzy failure region, a moment method based on fuzzy reliability sensitivity algorithm is presented. According to the value assignment of performance function, the integral region for calculating the fuzzy failure probability is first split into a series of subregions in which the membership function values of the performance function within the fuzzy failure region can be approximated by a set of constants. The fuzzy failure probability is then transformed into a sum of products of the random failure probabilities and the approximate constants of the membership function in the subregions. Furthermore, the fuzzy reliability sensitivity analysis is transformed into a series of random reliability sensitivity analysis, and the random reliability sensitivity can be obtained by the constructed moment method. The primary advantages of the presented method include higher efficiency for implicit performance function with low and medium dimensionality and wide applicability to multiple failure modes and nonnormal basic random variables. The limitation is that the required computation effort grows exponentially with the increase of dimensionality of the basic random vari- able; hence, it is not suitable for high dimensionality problem. Compared with the available methods, the presented one is pretty competitive in the case that the dimensionality is lower than 10. The presented examples are used to verify the advantages and indicate the limitations.