Quantitative study of the impact of Shanghai World Expo on green GDP （GGDP） is significant for deploying sustainable development policy in China. The formula of GGDP is： GGDP = GDP--the loss of natural resources en...Quantitative study of the impact of Shanghai World Expo on green GDP （GGDP） is significant for deploying sustainable development policy in China. The formula of GGDP is： GGDP = GDP--the loss of natural resources environment relegation cost ＋ comprehensive utilized value of waste. Based on this, the study employed vector autoregressive （VAR） model to predict the value of GGDP and other economic variables on condition that there was no Shanghai World Expo. Then Influence of Expo is defined as the rate of increase of GGDP. The result demonstrated that Shanghai World Expo had accelerated the growth rate of GGDP vastly with the elimination of effect of Beijing Olympics. Additionally, the quantitative analysis between GGDP and other economic variables suggested GGDP would replace GDP to evaluate the development of economy. Finally, the paper proposed that incidents like World Expo can enhance the level of influence for a country and that post-impact of Shanghai Expo should continue to be used to promote GGDP and that GGDP should serve as one of the indicators in assessment of political achievement.展开更多
[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrat...[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。展开更多
文摘Quantitative study of the impact of Shanghai World Expo on green GDP （GGDP） is significant for deploying sustainable development policy in China. The formula of GGDP is： GGDP = GDP--the loss of natural resources environment relegation cost ＋ comprehensive utilized value of waste. Based on this, the study employed vector autoregressive （VAR） model to predict the value of GGDP and other economic variables on condition that there was no Shanghai World Expo. Then Influence of Expo is defined as the rate of increase of GGDP. The result demonstrated that Shanghai World Expo had accelerated the growth rate of GGDP vastly with the elimination of effect of Beijing Olympics. Additionally, the quantitative analysis between GGDP and other economic variables suggested GGDP would replace GDP to evaluate the development of economy. Finally, the paper proposed that incidents like World Expo can enhance the level of influence for a country and that post-impact of Shanghai Expo should continue to be used to promote GGDP and that GGDP should serve as one of the indicators in assessment of political achievement.
文摘[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。
