Gravity anomalies determined from mean sea surface model data over the Gulf of Mexico

With the improvements in the density and quality of satellite altimetry data,a high-precision and high-resolution mean sea surface model containing abundant information regarding a marine gravity field can be calculated from long-time series multi-satellite altimeter data.Therefore,in this study,a method was proposed for determining marine gravity anomalies from a mean sea surface model.Taking the Gulf of Mexico(15°–32°N,80°–100°W)as the study area and using a removal-recovery method,the residual gridded deflections of the vertical(DOVs)are calculated by combining the mean sea surface,mean dynamic topography,and XGM2019e_2159 geoid,and then using the inverse Vening-Meinesz method to determine the residual marine gravity anomalies from the residual gridded DOVs.Finally,residual gravity anomalies are added to the XGM2019e_2159 gravity anomalies to derive marine gravity anomaly models.In this study,the marine gravity anomalies were estimated with mean sea surface models CNES_CLS15MSS,DTU21MSS,and SDUST2020MSS and the mean dynamic topography models CNES_CLS18MDT and DTU22MDT.The accuracy of the marine gravity anomalies derived by the mean sea surface model was assessed based on ship-borne gravity data.The results show that the difference between the gravity anomalies derived by DTU21MSS and CNES_CLS18MDT and those of the ship-borne gravity data is optimal.With an increase in the distance from the coast,the difference between the gravity anomalies derived by mean sea surface models and ship-borne gravity data gradually decreases.The accuracy of the difference between the gravity anomalies derived by mean sea surface models and those from ship-borne gravity data are optimal at a depth of 3–4 km.The accuracy of the gravity anomalies derived by the mean sea surface model is high.

Study on System of Faults in the Gulf of Mexico and Adjacent Region based on Gravity Data

In the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent landmasses,faults are very complex,and their distribution is closely related to plate tectonics,ocean-land boundary,and former structure.The plane position of the faults can be identified by the maximum characteristic of the vertical derivative of the normalized vertical derivative of the total horizontal derivative(NVDR-THDR)of the Bouguer gravity anomaly.The apparent depth of the faults is inverted by the Bouguer gravity anomaly curvature property.Based on tectonic evolutionary processes and the plane distribution and apparent depth characteristics of the faults,a complete fault system for the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent areas has been established,including 102 faults.The apparent depths of 33 first-class faults are 16-20 km and for 69 second-class faults are 12-16 km.The F_(1-2)and F_(1-3)subduction fault zones are two caused by the subduction of the Cocos Plate into the old Yucatan and Chorti landmasses;F_(1-11)and F_(1-12)fault zones extend westward to the coast of Guatemala and do not extend into the continent;F_(1-17)and F_(1-20)faults,which control the boundary of the oceanic crust,do not extend southward into the continent.The fault system,which radiates in a"fan-shaped"structure as a whole,unfolds to the northeast.Faults of different nature and sizes are distributed in the Cocos Plate subduction zone,Continental,Gulf of Mexico,Yucatan old landmass and Caribbean Plate in NW,NNW,NS,NE and NEE directions.In the Gulf of Mexico region,the fault system is a comprehensive reflection of former tectonic movements,such as plate movement,drift of old landmasses and expansion of oceanic crusts.The first-class faults control the plate and ocean-continental boundaries.The second-class faults are subordinate to the first-class faults or related to the distribution of different sedimentary layers.

Exploratory Analyses for Water Quality of the Gulf of Mexico Basin, Texas, 2005-2014

With the increased demand for more water sources, the issues of water quality have become more important. This study presents exploratory data analyses on water quality issues related to the Gulf of Mexico Basin in Texas for the last decade: 2005-2014. Dissolved oxygen, water temperature, specific conductance, PH, transparency, sampling depth and Enterococci observations for the ten years from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed. Statistical testing showed that the observations followed similar distributions between the years. Thus they were combined for each of the variables. Throughout the ten years transparency, water temperature, specific conductance, and Enterococci showed higher variances. Pair-wise correlations were negligible but they had positive spatial autocorrelation. Sampling was constantly conducted in the four months of February, May, August, and November. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen and Enterococci concentrations varied significantly during these four months. Univariate spatial regressions showed that Enterococci is predicted to increase whereas dissolved oxygen, PH, water temperature, specific conductances were predicted to decrease.

The link between the Victoria mode in the preceding boreal winter and spring precipitation over the southeastern USA and Gulf of Mexico

The sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） associated with the Victoria mode （VM） can persist into the following season and then influence climate variability in the tropical Pacific. This paper demonstrates the connection between the preceding boreal winter VM and precipitation in the following spring over the southeastern United States （SE USA） and the Gulf of Mexico （GM）. The results indicate that a positive （negative） preceding winter VM is usually followed by increased （reduced） precipitation over the SE USA and GM during the following spring. The corresponding mechanism is similar, but slightly different to, the seasonal footprinting mechanism. For positive VM cases, the preceding-winter VM-related SSTAs appear to persist into the following spring via air- sea interactions, which then induce low-level convergence and vigorous ascending motion, leading to an adjustment of the zonal and meridional circulation. This adjustment can then influence the local Hadley cell by weakening the downward branch. These anomalous patterns of vertical airflow enhance spring precipitation over the SE USA and GM under suitable moisture conditions. Hence, this work demonstrates that the preceding-winter VM has the potential to regulate precipitation over the SE USA and GM in the following spring.

The distribution of phenylalkanes in the modern sediment associated with gas hydrate from the Gulf of Mexico

Phenylalkanes with carbon numbers between 16 and 19, characterized by the main carbon-18, have been identified in the modern sediments collected from gas hydrate area from the Gulf of Mexico. The structure of phenylalkanes with four isomers for every carbon number was determined by means of their mass spectra and previous studies. The distribution of the series characterized by a low molecular mass was similar to the distribution of n-alkane, alkylcyclohexanes and alkylbenzenes in each sample. There were differences in the distribution of the phenylalkane series between the S - 1, S - 4, S - 7, S - 9 samples and the S - 8, S - 10 and S - 11 samples. The phenylalkanes might be derived from Archaea associated with anaerobic oxidation of methane （AOM） processes in S - 1, S -4, S -7 and S -9 samples according to their distribution resembled with the distribution of the extract from a type of Archaea. The distribution of alkylcyclohexanes and alkylbenzenes in S - 1, S - 4, S - 7 and S - 9 sample was found to be similar to each other. The odd-over-even predominance of alkylcyclohexanes was seen as the input of some bac- terial.

Turbidite Petroleum Geology Updates in the Deepwater and Subsalt Gulf of Mexico

The past six years （2008-2014） was a prosperous time for exploration and production in the dGOM （deepwater Gulf of Mexico）. Recent exploration and production activities can be divided into three major categories： drilling new wildcat wells, appraising and developing newly discovered fields and enhanced oil recovery of mature fields. Seismic imaging, complex geology, high pressure drilling, greater depth, and higher temperature are key challenges for the exploration and production of dGOM reservoirs. Complex geology includes salt-related structures and traps, reservoir compartmentalization, and the sequence stratigraphy of turbidite reservoirs. Turbidite sequence stratigraphy helps the asset team to fred the best target intervals. Sheet and channelized sandstones with good downdip aquifer support are preferred reservoir conditions. All the drilling, development and production challenges are related to high pressure, greater depth, higher temperature and lack of existing field analogs. Various IOR （improved oil recovery） methods are studied and applied in the development stage of the Wilcox fields, which have an average primary recovery factor of 10%-15%. With ideal tabular reservoir geometry and IOR methods, recovery factor of the Wilcox reservoirs can reach up to 42% of OOIP （origional oil in place） through the field life cycle.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of In Situ Sea Surface Temperatures within the Gulf of Mexico from 1901-2010

This work examines the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) for the period 1901-2010. The Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, version 4 (ERSST.v4), dataset was selected for this study over other reconstructions because of its 2° × 2° grid cell spatial resolution, its recent update to adjust for known biases in SST observations, and its ability to be compared to other in situ studies of GoM SSTs. The monthly ERSST.v4 data were averaged seasonally for each year and grid cell in the GoM. Seasonal SST trends were then calculated for each grid cell with varying start dates (e.g., 1901-2010, 1911- 2010) to account for nonlinear SST changes over the study period. Results indicate that the GoM SSTs closely resemble those of global annual temperature trends: SSTs warmed from 1901 to ~1940, followed by a period with little trend or a slight cooling until the mid-1970s, and then a warming afterwards through 2010. The spatial patterns and magnitudes of SST changes, however, varied by season and location within the GoM. The spatial patterns involved gradients with latitudinal and/or longitudinal components: a southwest-northeast (warmer-cooler) gradient in winter, an east-west (warmer-cooler) gradient in spring and fall, and a northwest-southeast (warmer-cooler) gradient in summer. The magnitude of SST changes tended to be largest in summer, followed by spring, fall, and winter. The long-term (1901-2010) SST trends were significant throughout the GoM in summer and fall, but only significant towards the southwestern GoM in winter and spring. These results have implications in discussion of climate change and its impacts on tropical activity in the GoM Basin.

Air Pollution in the Gulf of Mexico

An integral analysis of Air Pollution in the Gulf of Mexico was made considering pollutants emissions assessment and diagnosis;air pollution monitoring;and modeling of air pollution dispersion. Combustion sources considered in this work were: thermoelectric power plants and open flares;and pollutants considered were sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxides, particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), Total suspended particles (TSP) and carbon monoxide (CO). This study made evident a lack of more recent information and a homogenization in emissions factors in order to know the conditions of air pollution in the Gulf of Mexico in a more reliable way.

Analysis on Well Drilling Example of Deepwater Block in the Gulf of Mexico

With the innovation and development of offshore oil drilling technology, drilling wells in deep waters areas have become an important activity for the development of new hydrocarbon reservoirs in this type of environment. CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) won the rights to exploit two unexplored deepwater blocks in the Gulf of Mexico, in a bid realized by the Mexican Government (CNH), in 2016. The challenge to combine the newest technology with the oil industry experienced knowledge to lead the exploration and development of these deep-water blocks in Mexico is around the corner. Therefore, the basic techniques for deep waters wells drilling and the main potential risks are expounded in this paper. A set of deep waters wells drilling processes and methodologies are previously designed, and a specific case is demonstrated next, which provides a referential model for deep waters wells drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

Marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Mexico 1983‒2021: Statistics, recent intensifications, and threats on coral reefs

There is the current lack of comprehensive understanding of the hotspots,frequency,duration,spatiotemporal trends,and physical drivers of marine heatwaves(MHWs)within the Gulf of Mexico(GoM).Here,a series of high-resolution satellite and reanalysis products are used to examine their spatiotemporal characteristics,trends,and possible geophysical triggers of MHWs.Possible impacts of the MHW on coral reefs are also discussed.Results reveal an increasing trend in their frequency,duration,and intensities from 1983–2021,particularly after 2016.It identifies MHWs hotspots within the GoM,notably the northern and western shelves and the Loop Current.The study further documents an intense MHW event from late 2020 to early 2021 near the Yucatan Channel,south of 24°N,attributing its development to oceanic processes such as wind anomalies,anticyclonic eddies,and current-driven heat transport anomalies.The occurrence of this MHW event potentially increased thermal stress on the Campeche and Tuxtlas Reef Systems.This research illuminates the increasing trends and impacts of MHWs in the GoM,providing valuable insights for understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems.

Detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of the Riachuelos and Palma Sola beach sediments,Veracruz State,Gulf of Mexico:a new insight on palaeoenvironment

Zircons are abundant in the beach sediments.In this study,surface microtexture,mineralogy,bulk sediment geochemistry,trace element composition and U−Pb isotopic geochronology of detrital zircons collected from the Riachuelos and Palma Sola beach areas,southwestern Gulf of Mexico were performed to infer the sediment provenance and palaeoenvironment.The zircon microtexture was categorized as mechanically-and/or chemically-induced features.The weathering index values for the Riachuelos(~72−77)and Palma Sola(~71−74)beach sediments indicated moderate weathering of both of the two source areas.The major and trace element data of bulk sediments suggested passive margin settings for the two areas.The trace elemental ratios and chondrite-normalized rare earth element(REE)patterns of bulk sediments revealed that the sediments were likely sourced by felsic and intermediate igneous rocks.And the zircon Th/U ratios(mostly more than 0.2)and zircon REE patterns(with negative Eu and positive Ce anomalies)suggested a magmatic origin for both of the beach sediments from these two areas.Two distinct zircon age peaks respectively belonging to the Paleozoic and the Cenozoic were identified both in the Riachuelos and Palma Sola beach sediments.Zircon geochronology comparison research between the Riachuelos−Palma Sola beach sediments and potential source areas in SW Gulf of Mexico revealed that the source terrane supplied the Paleozoic zircons of this study was identified as the Mesa Central Province(MCP),and the Cenozoic zircons were transported from the nearby Eastern Alkaline Province(EAP).Moreover,although the Precambrian zircons were very few in the studied sediments,their geochronology and geochemistry results still could infer that they were contributed by the source terranes of Grenvillian igneous suites in the Oaxaca and the Chiapas Massif Complexes.

Textural and geochemical characteristics of late Pleistocene to Holocene fine-grained deep-sea sediment cores(GM6 and GM7),recovered from southwestern Gulf of Mexico

Texture, mineralogy, geochemistry, and 14C ages of two deep-sea sediment cores （GM6 and GM7） recovered in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico were investigated to infer their provenance and depositional condition. The sediments are enriched in fine-grained silt and clay and poor in sand content. Mineralogically, the sediments consist of quartz, calcite, smectite, and kaolinite. Based on the ]4C data, the age of the GM6 and GM7 sediment cores were calculated as 23,615 cal yrs. BP and 19,007 cal yrs. BP, respectively. The weathering indices such as chemical index of alteration （CIA）, chemical index of weathering （CIW）, and plagioclase index of alteration （PIA） in GM6 （56-69, 60-74, and 6]-73, respectively） and GM7 （54-69, 57-76, and 55-74, respectively） cores revealed a moderate-to-high intensity of weathering. The rare earth element （REE） patterns suggested that the sediments were derived mostly by the weathering of intermediate rocks, exposed along the coastal regions of the Gulf of Mexico. The trace elemental ratios like V/Cr （〈2）, Ni/Co （〈2）, and Cu/Zn （〈1）, authigenic uranium content （〈1）, and Ce anomaly （Ce/Ce＊ ≤1） suggested that the sediments were deposited under an oxic condition, which was also revealed by the benthic foraminiferal assemblages throughout the GM6 and GM7 sediment cores.

Trans-Gulf of Mexico loop migration of tree swallows revealed by solar geolocation

One of the greatest feats of avian migration is the non-stop crossing of extensive areas of inhospitable habitat such as deserts and seas. Differences in spring and autumn migration routes have been reported in species that cross such barriers, and are thought to have evolved in response to seasonal variation in prevailing wind direction. We tested the hypothesis that migration routes vary seasonally with respect to the Gulf of Mexico in the tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor using solar geolocators attached and retrieved at 4 breeding sites in central North America. We found that 100 % of birds （n = 10） made a trans-Gulf flight of 〉850 km from Louisiana south to their wintering grounds in the Yucatan Peninsula in 12-36 hours, achieving minimum ground speeds as high as 32 m/s. Although most days during autumn migration were characterized by unfavorable headwinds blowing to the northwest, migration over the Gulf mostly occurred on days with strong winds blowing to the south. In contrast, in 8 of 9 （88 %） birds on spring migration returned from the wintering grounds towards Louisiana following a clockwise loop pat- tern flying over land to the west around the Gulf. During this spring period there were few days with prevailing winds from the south to assist northward migration. Results suggest that, despite being up to three times further （ca. 2,700 kin）, a coastal circum-Gulf spring migration represents the less risky route when wind conditions are not favorable. These findings also help to resolve a long-standing dispute in the literature concerning migration patterns between the US Gulf coast and Mexico, and provide insight into the factors shaping migration strategies of small songbirds migrating across large bodies of water [Current Zoology 60（5）： 653-559, 2014].

Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

In response to the Deepwater Horizon （DwH） oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches： a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System （IOOS） testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project （GOMEX-PPP）; a British Petroleum （BP） funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH.

Skill-assessments of statistical and Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilative analyses using surface and deep observations in the Gulf of Mexico

A new data assimilation algorithm （Quasi- EnKF） in ocean modeling, based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter scheme, is proposed in this paper. This algorithm assimilates not only surface measurements （sea surface height）, but also deep （-2000 m） temperature observations from the Gulf of Mexico into regional ocean models. With the use of the Princeton Ocean Model （POM）, integrated for approximately two years by assimilating both surface and deep observations, this new algorithm was compared to an existing assimilation algorithm （Mellor-Ezer Scheme） at different resolutions. The results show that, by comparing the observations, the new algorithm out-performs the existing one.

Predict sandstone distribution by integrated study of deformed shale using borehole image and seismic data,a case study from northern Gulf of Mexico

Many Upper Tertiary reservoirs from the Gulf of Mexico(GoM)are sandstones deposited either in channel-levee systems or lobe systems in the intra-slope deepwater environment.One of the major uncertainties about those reservoirs is their distribution,which is likely controlled by salt tectonics.The current salt structure,however,does not represent the salt structure when the sands were deposited.It is difficult,if not impossible,to restore the salt history based on current salt structures.Salt movement resulted in a great amount of deformed shale in GoM.Borehole images on the other hand can be used to characterize the internal structure or texture of deformed shale;and the dips of deformed shale from borehole images may be used to define the paleo slope direction,which controls the movement of deformed shale.The internal structure or texture of deformed shale,therefore,may provide some information about the history of salt movement,which may also control the sand distribution.In this integrated study,all the available data,including borehole images,seismic volumes,and other petrophysical logs,were used to characterize the reservoir sands and shales.The reservoir sands are mainly composed of amalgamated sand,layered sand,and laminated sandstone.Based on dips from borehole images,paleo flow directions of reservoir sands were defined.The shales are categorized as hemipelagic shale and deformed shale.The hemipelagic shale has relatively lower and consistent dips;whereas deformed shale has relatively higher variable in both dip magnitude and dip azimuth.The integrated study suggests the main reservoir of the field is submarine lobe sands deposited above an allochthonous salt in the basin.The evacuation of the salt body below the basin created small geographic lower area for sand lobes to accumulate.The dips from the deformed shale provided information about the center of the small(or mini)basin,thus established a relationship between the dip pattern and sandstone distribution.If this relationship is valid for the other upper Tertiary deformed shale in the GoM area,a new method can be developed,which may enable us to predict the sandstone distribution using borehole images and provide guidance for petroleum evaluation and field development in the future.

Estimation of potential distribution of gas hydrate in the northern South China Sea

Gas hydrate research has significant importance for securing world energy resources, and has the potential to produce considerable economic benefits. Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea is an area that harbors gas hydrates. However, there is a lack of systematic investigations and understanding on the distribution of gas hydrate throughout the region. In this paper, we applied mineral resource quantitative assessment techniques to forecast and estimate the potential distribution of gas hydrate resources in the northern South China Sea. However, current hydrate samples from the South China Sea are too few to produce models of occurrences. Thus, according to similarity and contrast principles of mineral outputs, we can use a similar hydrate-mining environment with sufficient gas hydrate data as a testing ground for modeling northern South China Sea gas hydrate conditions. We selected the Gulf of Mexico, which has extensively studied gas hydrates, to develop predictive models of gas hydrate distributions, and to test errors in the model. Then, we compared the existing northern South China Sea hydrate-mining data with the Gulf of Mexico characteristics, and collated the relevant data into the model. Subsequently, we applied the model to the northern South China Sea to obtain the potential gas hydrate distribution of the area, and to identify significant exploration targets. Finally, we evaluated the reliability of the predicted results. The south seabed area of Taiwan Bank is recommended as a priority exploration target. The Zhujiang Mouth, Southeast Hainan, and Southwest Taiwan Basins, including the South Bijia Basin, also are recommended as exploration target areas. In addition, the method in this paper can provide a useful predictive approach for gas hydrate resource assessment, which gives a scientific basis for construction and implementation of long-term planning for gas hydrate exploration and general exploitation of the seabed of China.

Stopover behavior of Red-eyed Vireos(Vireo olivaceus) during fall migration on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Background: For migrating birds, stopover requires spending time and energy that otherwise could be allocated to flying. Thus, birds optimally refuel their subsequent migratory flight by reducing stopover duration or foraging activ-ity in food-rich environments. In coastal habitats, birds may forego refueling and take short stopovers irrespective of local food availability. Given the paucity of studies exploring how migrants adjust stopover behavior in response to temporal variation in food availability, especially in the Neotropics, we fixed radio tags to 51 Red-eyed Vireos(Vireo olivaceous) over two years at two sites on the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.Methods: We applied VHF radio tags during the fall of 2016 and 2017, and tracked birds using automatic and manual receiving units. We estimated stopover duration and activity levels(one site only) for between six and fifteen birds,depending on site and year. We measured fruit availability weekly along the net lanes where we captured birds. We used a generalized linear model to estimate the relationships between stopover duration/activity level and fruit den-sity, bird body mass and year. We interpreted relationships for the model with the lowest AICc value.Results: We found that approximately half of the birds departed on the same day they were captured. For the birds that stayed longer, we could not discern whether they did so because they were light, or fruit density was high. On the other hand, lighter birds were more active than heavier birds but only in one of the two years.Conclusions: Given our results, it is unlikely that Red-eyed Vireos refuel along the Yucatan coast. However, they still likely need to recuperate from crossing the Gulf of Mexico, which may necessitate foraging more often if in poor body condition. If the birds then move inland then stopover should be thought of as a large-scale phenomenon, where habitats with different functions may be spread out over a broad landscape.

An Evaluation of Nearshore Sediment Data after the Deepwater Horizon Blowout

The deepwater horizon blowout led to the release of 4.9 million barrels of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico （GOM）. Here the paper analyzes available sediment datasets to determine whether changes in petrogenic contaminants are evident in GOM sediment following the blowout. Locations sampled by EPA （Environmental Protection Agency）, British Petroleum （BP） and NOAA （National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration） were reduced and grouped into 46 similar locations and analyzed. Eleven groups suggested an increase in PAIl （polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon） and nickel, one group showed a statistically significant increase in Phenanthrene. Four locations were analyzed for time trends and differences between initial and peak concentrations of oil range organics （ORO）, diesel range organics （DRO）, vanadium and nickel. One location had significant increases in ORO, DRO and vanadium and a suggestive increase in nickel. Correlations between ORO/DRO, ORO/V, ORO/Ni, V/Ni were computed （RE= 0.85, 0.67, 0.64, 0.92, respectively）. Overall, the analyses suggest that future monitoring should employ a sampling strategy that coordinates response sampling to previously sampled locations, such that baseline datasets can be used in detection of event associated contamination.

Weather Induced Quasi-Periodic Motions in Estuaries and Bays:Meteoro-logical Tide

Influenced by weather, the estuaries and bays often exhibit recurring oscillations in flow and water level similar to astronomical tides. The weather impact however is less regular than tides and more difficult to predict. The spectrum of weather induced motions in estuaries and bays is mostly at the low-frequency end with time scales longer than those of diurnal tides. The repeated weather impact produces meteorological tide: the recurring flood and ebb and flushing of the estuaries and bays but at lower frequencies than those of tides. The variation in weather conditions is quasi-periodic and of large scale nature(~1000-3000 km) because of the alternating low-and high-atmospheric pressure systems of extra-tropical cyclones and anti-cyclones and associated fronts. By examining 40 years of data between Jan. 1, 1977 and Dec. 31, 2016, we identified 1648 frontal events(averaging ~41.2±4.7 per year)influencing the northern Gulf of Mexico for time periods in the spring, fall and winter. The late spring and summer months(May, Jun, July, and August) were not included in the calculation because of much weaker activities involving synoptic weather systems with fronts during these months. It is found that the number of frontal events reached the maximum in Jan. and Dec. while the minimum occurred in April and Sept. It is found that there is an increasing trend of number of fronts over the 40-year period. Our data show that the low pass filtered water level,velocity, and vorticity(velocity shear) all vary in response to the weather and appear as the meteorological tide. The particle excursions of meteorological tides are much larger than those from the astronomical tides. In addition, the irregular nature of the meteorological tide makes the inward flux and outward flux asymmetric in general and thus it has a significant implication to dispersion and transport of waterborne materials. A scaling analysis shows that the meteorological tide generally reaches quasi-steady state;and as a result, a regression model is established which can be very useful for predicting the weather produced quasi-periodic motions.