Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses...Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions.展开更多
A comparison study is performed to contrast the improvements in the tropical Pacific oceanic state of a low-resolution model respectively via data assimilation and by an increase in horizontal resolution. A low resolu...A comparison study is performed to contrast the improvements in the tropical Pacific oceanic state of a low-resolution model respectively via data assimilation and by an increase in horizontal resolution. A low resolution model (LR) (1°lat by 2°lon) and a high-resolution model (HR) (0.5°lat by 0.5°lon) are employed for the comparison. The authors perform 20-yr numerical experiments and analyze the annual mean fields of temperature and salinity. The results indicate that the low-resolution model with data assimilation behaves better than the high-resolution model in the estimation of ocean large-scale features. From 1990 to 2000, the average of HR's RMSE (root-mean-square error) relative to independent Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO) mooring data at randomly selected points is 0.97℃ compared to a RMSE of 0.56℃ for LR with temperature assimilation. Moreover, the LR with data assimilation is more frugal in computation. Although there is room to improve the high-resolution model, the low-resolution model with data assimilation may be an advisable choice in achieving a more realistic large-scale state of the ocean at the limited level of information provided by the current observational system.展开更多
The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem),a type of online coupled chemistry-meteorology model(CCMM),considers the interaction between air quality and meteorology to improve air quali...The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem),a type of online coupled chemistry-meteorology model(CCMM),considers the interaction between air quality and meteorology to improve air quality forecasting.Meteorological data assimilation(DA)can be used to reduce uncertainty in meteorological field,which is one factor causing prediction uncertainty in the CCMM.In this study,WRF-Chem and three-dimensional variational DA were used to examine the impact of meteorological DA on air quality and meteorological forecasts over the Korean Peninsula.The nesting model domains were configured over East Asia(outer domain)and the Korean Peninsula(inner domain).Three experiments were conducted by using different DA domains to determine the optimal model domain for the meteorological DA.When the meteorological DA was performed in the outer domain or both the outer and inner domains,the root-mean-square error(RMSE),bias of the predicted particulate matter(PM)concentrations,and the RMSE of predicted meteorological variables against the observations were smaller than those in the experiment where the meteorological DA was performed only in the inner domain.This indicates that the improvement of the synoptic meteorological fields by DA in the outer domain enhanced the meteorological initial and boundary conditions for the inner domain,subsequently improving air quality and meteorological predictions.Compared to the experiment without meteorological DA,the RMSE and bias of the meteorological and PM variables were smaller in the experiments with DA.The effect of meteorological DA on the improvement of PM predictions lasted for approximately 58-66 h,depending on the case.Therefore,the uncertainty reduction in the meteorological initial condition by the meteorological DA contributed to a reduction of the forecast errors of both meteorology and air quality.展开更多
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or impr...The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.展开更多
A regional coupled prediction system for the Asia-Pacific(AP-RCP)(38°E-180°,20°S-60°N) area has been established.The AP-RCP system consists of WRF-ROMS(Weather Research and Forecast,and Regional Oc...A regional coupled prediction system for the Asia-Pacific(AP-RCP)(38°E-180°,20°S-60°N) area has been established.The AP-RCP system consists of WRF-ROMS(Weather Research and Forecast,and Regional Ocean Model System) coupled models combined with local observational information through dynamically downscaling coupled data assimilation(CDA).The system generates 18-day forecasts for the atmosphere and ocean environment on a daily quasi-operational schedule at Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)(QNLM),consisting of 2 different-resolution coupled models:27 km WRF coupled with 9 km ROMS,9 km WRF coupled with 3 km ROMS,while a version of 3 km WRF coupled with 3 km ROMS is in a test mode.This study is a first step to evaluate the impact of high-resolution coupled model with dynamically downscaling CDA on the extended-range predictions,focusing on forecasts of typhoon onset,improved precipitation and typhoon intensity forecasts as well as simulation of the Kuroshio current variability associated with mesoscale oceanic activities.The results show that for realizing the extended-range predictability of atmospheric and oceanic environment characterized by statistics of mesoscale activities,a fine resolution coupled model resolving local mesoscale phenomena with balanced and coherent coupled initialization is a necessary first step.The next challenges include improving the planetary boundary physics and the representation of air-sea and air-land interactions to enable the model to resolve kilometer or sub-kilometer processes.展开更多
Since the North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems(NLDAS and GLDAS) were established in2004, significant progress has been made in development of regional and global LDASs. National, regional, projectb...Since the North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems(NLDAS and GLDAS) were established in2004, significant progress has been made in development of regional and global LDASs. National, regional, projectbased, and global LDASs are widely developed across the world. This paper summarizes and overviews the development, current status, applications, challenges, and future prospects of these LDASs. We first introduce various regional and global LDASs including their development history and innovations, and then discuss the evaluation, validation, and applications(from numerical model prediction to water resources management) of these LDASs. More importantly, we document in detail some specific challenges that the LDASs are facing: quality of the in-situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis data, surface meteorological forcing data, and soil and vegetation databases; land surface model physical process treatment and parameter calibration; land data assimilation difficulties; and spatial scale incompatibility problems. Finally, some prospects such as the use of land information system software, the unified global LDAS system with nesting concept and hyper-resolution, and uncertainty estimates for model structure,parameters, and forcing are discussed.展开更多
In this paper,we first briefly review the history of air-sea coupled models,and then introduce the current status and recent advances of regional air-sea coupled models.In particular,we discuss the core technical and ...In this paper,we first briefly review the history of air-sea coupled models,and then introduce the current status and recent advances of regional air-sea coupled models.In particular,we discuss the core technical and scientific issues involved in the development of regional coupled models,including the coupling technique,lateral boundary conditions,the coupling with sea waves(ices),and data assimilation.Furthermore,we introduce the application of regional coupled models in numerical simulation and dynamical downscaling.Finally,we discuss the existing problems and future directions in the development of regional air-sea coupled models.展开更多
地表反照率是陆面过程中一个重要的物理量,其变化直接影响地表能量的收支状况,进而可以影响气温和降水等其它气象要素。本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,通过两组数值模拟试验分别探讨了地表反照率改变在黄河源区不...地表反照率是陆面过程中一个重要的物理量,其变化直接影响地表能量的收支状况,进而可以影响气温和降水等其它气象要素。本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,通过两组数值模拟试验分别探讨了地表反照率改变在黄河源区不同下垫面情况下潜热、感热的分配关系,详细分析了地表反照率改变对降水变化的影响机制,最后应用EOS/MODIS地表反照率产品替代原模式低时空分辨率的地表反照率。研究结果表明:(1)当地表反照率减少(增加)时,模拟的区域平均地表温度、感热、潜热数值相应增大(减少)。当地表反照率减少0.1时,地表温度上升约1.0K,感热和潜热量增量比约为3∶1。(2)地表反照率改变对降水量变化影响最大的区域是黄河源区下游的草场区域,其次是黄河源头区域,最小的是黄河源区北部的稀疏植被区域。地表反照率通过对大气动力、热力以及水汽条件的影响,使得降水发生的环境改变,主要体现在:当地表反照率减少时,地表气压的减少使得大气低层的辐合气流增强,有利于上升运动的发生;2.0m气温的升高增强了大气近地层的热力不稳定度;2.0m比湿的增加表明近地层空气水汽含量增加。(3)与实况对比分析发现,使用卫星遥感产品后在月尺度上能够更准确地模拟降水量的变化过程。展开更多
采用中国气象局2014年6月1日—30日14时加密探空资料,利用华东区域中尺度数值预报业务系统比较同化加密探空观测资料前后模式预报结果的差异。研究表明,同化加密探空资料后,对模式初始时刻不同高度的位势高度、比湿、温度、风速等变量...采用中国气象局2014年6月1日—30日14时加密探空资料,利用华东区域中尺度数值预报业务系统比较同化加密探空观测资料前后模式预报结果的差异。研究表明,同化加密探空资料后,对模式初始时刻不同高度的位势高度、比湿、温度、风速等变量均有一定的影响;对位势高度、温度和风场的影响在高层100—150 h Pa比较显著,而对比湿的影响主要体现在低层700—750 h Pa。同化加密探空资料后模式初始场更接近实况。批量数值试验的统计检验表明,同化加密探空观测资料后对强降水及形势场预报均有不同程度改进,24 h暴雨和大暴雨量级降水的预报技巧分别提高了2.5%和8.1%。展开更多
淮河流域是中国南北气候重要的过渡带,气象灾害频繁发生。这里水网、农田、丘陵、山地、城镇密布,地-气作用复杂,干冷与暖湿空气时常交汇于此,造成局地或流域旱涝经常发生。淮河流域处于梅雨区,且是中国重要的农业生产基地,具有气象和...淮河流域是中国南北气候重要的过渡带,气象灾害频繁发生。这里水网、农田、丘陵、山地、城镇密布,地-气作用复杂,干冷与暖湿空气时常交汇于此,造成局地或流域旱涝经常发生。淮河流域处于梅雨区,且是中国重要的农业生产基地,具有气象和水文综合观测系统,积累了长序列的气象和水文观测资料。因此,淮河流域是研究能量和水分循环的理想试验区。国家自然科学基金重大项目"淮河流域能量与水分循环试验和研究(HUaihe river Basin Experiment,简称HUBEX)"于1998、1999年夏在淮河流域开展了气象和水文联合观测试验。文中回顾了HUBEX试验的目的、观测网设计与布局,介绍了HUBEX推动下的淮河流域综合观测网的发展,总结了HUBEX观测试验对区域气候事件和暴雨等灾害性天气机理研究、提高模式模拟和预报能力及建立长期连续的气象观测数据集等方面的成果和作用。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1404100 and 2017YFC1404104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775100 and 41830964)。
文摘Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions.
基金This study is supported by the Key Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences KZCX3 SW-221the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40233033 and 40221503).
文摘A comparison study is performed to contrast the improvements in the tropical Pacific oceanic state of a low-resolution model respectively via data assimilation and by an increase in horizontal resolution. A low resolution model (LR) (1°lat by 2°lon) and a high-resolution model (HR) (0.5°lat by 0.5°lon) are employed for the comparison. The authors perform 20-yr numerical experiments and analyze the annual mean fields of temperature and salinity. The results indicate that the low-resolution model with data assimilation behaves better than the high-resolution model in the estimation of ocean large-scale features. From 1990 to 2000, the average of HR's RMSE (root-mean-square error) relative to independent Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO) mooring data at randomly selected points is 0.97℃ compared to a RMSE of 0.56℃ for LR with temperature assimilation. Moreover, the LR with data assimilation is more frugal in computation. Although there is room to improve the high-resolution model, the low-resolution model with data assimilation may be an advisable choice in achieving a more realistic large-scale state of the ocean at the limited level of information provided by the current observational system.
基金Supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(2021R1A2C1012572)funded by the South Korean government(Ministry of Science and ICT)Yonsei Signature Research Cluster Program of 2023(2023-22-0009)National Institute of Environmental Research(NIER-2022-01-02-076)funded by the Ministry of Environment(MOE)of the Republic of Korea。
文摘The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem),a type of online coupled chemistry-meteorology model(CCMM),considers the interaction between air quality and meteorology to improve air quality forecasting.Meteorological data assimilation(DA)can be used to reduce uncertainty in meteorological field,which is one factor causing prediction uncertainty in the CCMM.In this study,WRF-Chem and three-dimensional variational DA were used to examine the impact of meteorological DA on air quality and meteorological forecasts over the Korean Peninsula.The nesting model domains were configured over East Asia(outer domain)and the Korean Peninsula(inner domain).Three experiments were conducted by using different DA domains to determine the optimal model domain for the meteorological DA.When the meteorological DA was performed in the outer domain or both the outer and inner domains,the root-mean-square error(RMSE),bias of the predicted particulate matter(PM)concentrations,and the RMSE of predicted meteorological variables against the observations were smaller than those in the experiment where the meteorological DA was performed only in the inner domain.This indicates that the improvement of the synoptic meteorological fields by DA in the outer domain enhanced the meteorological initial and boundary conditions for the inner domain,subsequently improving air quality and meteorological predictions.Compared to the experiment without meteorological DA,the RMSE and bias of the meteorological and PM variables were smaller in the experiments with DA.The effect of meteorological DA on the improvement of PM predictions lasted for approximately 58-66 h,depending on the case.Therefore,the uncertainty reduction in the meteorological initial condition by the meteorological DA contributed to a reduction of the forecast errors of both meteorology and air quality.
基金supported in part by the National Key Basic Research Development Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950703)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China and the Program of China Scholarships Council (CSC No. 201506040130)
文摘The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1404100,2017YFC1404104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41775100,41830964)+1 种基金the Shandong Province’s"Taishan"Scientist Project(2018012919)the collaborative project between the Ocean University of China(OUC),Texas A&M University(TAMU)and the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR)and completed through the International Laboratory for High Resolution Earth System Prediction(iHESP)-a collaboration among QNLM,TAMU and NCAR。
文摘A regional coupled prediction system for the Asia-Pacific(AP-RCP)(38°E-180°,20°S-60°N) area has been established.The AP-RCP system consists of WRF-ROMS(Weather Research and Forecast,and Regional Ocean Model System) coupled models combined with local observational information through dynamically downscaling coupled data assimilation(CDA).The system generates 18-day forecasts for the atmosphere and ocean environment on a daily quasi-operational schedule at Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)(QNLM),consisting of 2 different-resolution coupled models:27 km WRF coupled with 9 km ROMS,9 km WRF coupled with 3 km ROMS,while a version of 3 km WRF coupled with 3 km ROMS is in a test mode.This study is a first step to evaluate the impact of high-resolution coupled model with dynamically downscaling CDA on the extended-range predictions,focusing on forecasts of typhoon onset,improved precipitation and typhoon intensity forecasts as well as simulation of the Kuroshio current variability associated with mesoscale oceanic activities.The results show that for realizing the extended-range predictability of atmospheric and oceanic environment characterized by statistics of mesoscale activities,a fine resolution coupled model resolving local mesoscale phenomena with balanced and coherent coupled initialization is a necessary first step.The next challenges include improving the planetary boundary physics and the representation of air-sea and air-land interactions to enable the model to resolve kilometer or sub-kilometer processes.
基金Supported by the US Environmental Modeling Center(EMC)Land Surface Modeling Project(granted to Youlong Xia)National Natural Science Foundation of China(51609111,granted to Baoqing Zhang)
文摘Since the North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems(NLDAS and GLDAS) were established in2004, significant progress has been made in development of regional and global LDASs. National, regional, projectbased, and global LDASs are widely developed across the world. This paper summarizes and overviews the development, current status, applications, challenges, and future prospects of these LDASs. We first introduce various regional and global LDASs including their development history and innovations, and then discuss the evaluation, validation, and applications(from numerical model prediction to water resources management) of these LDASs. More importantly, we document in detail some specific challenges that the LDASs are facing: quality of the in-situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis data, surface meteorological forcing data, and soil and vegetation databases; land surface model physical process treatment and parameter calibration; land data assimilation difficulties; and spatial scale incompatibility problems. Finally, some prospects such as the use of land information system software, the unified global LDAS system with nesting concept and hyper-resolution, and uncertainty estimates for model structure,parameters, and forcing are discussed.
基金supported by Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX2-EW-208 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-02)the MOST of China (Grant No. 2011CB403504)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41076009)
文摘In this paper,we first briefly review the history of air-sea coupled models,and then introduce the current status and recent advances of regional air-sea coupled models.In particular,we discuss the core technical and scientific issues involved in the development of regional coupled models,including the coupling technique,lateral boundary conditions,the coupling with sea waves(ices),and data assimilation.Furthermore,we introduce the application of regional coupled models in numerical simulation and dynamical downscaling.Finally,we discuss the existing problems and future directions in the development of regional air-sea coupled models.
文摘地表反照率是陆面过程中一个重要的物理量,其变化直接影响地表能量的收支状况,进而可以影响气温和降水等其它气象要素。本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,通过两组数值模拟试验分别探讨了地表反照率改变在黄河源区不同下垫面情况下潜热、感热的分配关系,详细分析了地表反照率改变对降水变化的影响机制,最后应用EOS/MODIS地表反照率产品替代原模式低时空分辨率的地表反照率。研究结果表明:(1)当地表反照率减少(增加)时,模拟的区域平均地表温度、感热、潜热数值相应增大(减少)。当地表反照率减少0.1时,地表温度上升约1.0K,感热和潜热量增量比约为3∶1。(2)地表反照率改变对降水量变化影响最大的区域是黄河源区下游的草场区域,其次是黄河源头区域,最小的是黄河源区北部的稀疏植被区域。地表反照率通过对大气动力、热力以及水汽条件的影响,使得降水发生的环境改变,主要体现在:当地表反照率减少时,地表气压的减少使得大气低层的辐合气流增强,有利于上升运动的发生;2.0m气温的升高增强了大气近地层的热力不稳定度;2.0m比湿的增加表明近地层空气水汽含量增加。(3)与实况对比分析发现,使用卫星遥感产品后在月尺度上能够更准确地模拟降水量的变化过程。
文摘采用中国气象局2014年6月1日—30日14时加密探空资料,利用华东区域中尺度数值预报业务系统比较同化加密探空观测资料前后模式预报结果的差异。研究表明,同化加密探空资料后,对模式初始时刻不同高度的位势高度、比湿、温度、风速等变量均有一定的影响;对位势高度、温度和风场的影响在高层100—150 h Pa比较显著,而对比湿的影响主要体现在低层700—750 h Pa。同化加密探空资料后模式初始场更接近实况。批量数值试验的统计检验表明,同化加密探空观测资料后对强降水及形势场预报均有不同程度改进,24 h暴雨和大暴雨量级降水的预报技巧分别提高了2.5%和8.1%。
文摘淮河流域是中国南北气候重要的过渡带,气象灾害频繁发生。这里水网、农田、丘陵、山地、城镇密布,地-气作用复杂,干冷与暖湿空气时常交汇于此,造成局地或流域旱涝经常发生。淮河流域处于梅雨区,且是中国重要的农业生产基地,具有气象和水文综合观测系统,积累了长序列的气象和水文观测资料。因此,淮河流域是研究能量和水分循环的理想试验区。国家自然科学基金重大项目"淮河流域能量与水分循环试验和研究(HUaihe river Basin Experiment,简称HUBEX)"于1998、1999年夏在淮河流域开展了气象和水文联合观测试验。文中回顾了HUBEX试验的目的、观测网设计与布局,介绍了HUBEX推动下的淮河流域综合观测网的发展,总结了HUBEX观测试验对区域气候事件和暴雨等灾害性天气机理研究、提高模式模拟和预报能力及建立长期连续的气象观测数据集等方面的成果和作用。