Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
分析土地利用/覆被变化(Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,LUCC)情况,探究驱动因素,对促进土地资源可持续利用具有重要意义。基于安徽省2000、2010、2020年三期GlobeLand30数据,从变化幅度、速度等角度分析LUCC变化规律与特征,利用相关...分析土地利用/覆被变化(Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,LUCC)情况,探究驱动因素,对促进土地资源可持续利用具有重要意义。基于安徽省2000、2010、2020年三期GlobeLand30数据,从变化幅度、速度等角度分析LUCC变化规律与特征,利用相关性分析和随机森林算法量化LUCC的驱动因素。结果表明:20年来,草地、水体、人造地表、裸地面积呈增加态势,耕地、林地和湿地面积逐年减少;从变化速率看,人造地表>湿地>水体>草地>林地>裸地>耕地;各地类间转换频繁,主要表现为耕地转向人造地表,林地退化为草地,湿地流向水体;LUCC变化主要受人口增长和技术进步驱动,气候与生态环境是次要驱动力。基于安徽省随机森林算法的驱动力定量分析,为LUCC驱动机制的研究提供新思路,可为区域土地合理利用、区域可持续发展提供决策依据。展开更多
本研究在2022年广西山口国家级红树林生态自然保护区(以下简称山口红树林保护区)实地调查数据的基础上,选取1987—2021年期间6个时相的遥感影像,利用面向对象的图像分类方法,解析土地利用/土地覆盖变化(land-use and land-cover change,...本研究在2022年广西山口国家级红树林生态自然保护区(以下简称山口红树林保护区)实地调查数据的基础上,选取1987—2021年期间6个时相的遥感影像,利用面向对象的图像分类方法,解析土地利用/土地覆盖变化(land-use and land-cover change,LUCC)状况,并基于LUCC计算景观格局指数(landscapepatternindex,LPI),结合LUCC着重探索广西山口红树林保护区湿地变化过程及其重要影响因素。结果表明:从土地利用角度来看,研究区近35年间地类之间不断转换,其中耕地面积持续减少,米草滩和养殖坑塘大比例增长,米草滩主要侵占原沿海滩涂,养殖坑塘主要由林地和耕地转换而来;就景观角度来看:景观破碎度持续增加,连通性逐渐降低,景观形状逐渐变得复杂,地类演替变得频繁;Pearson相关性分析表明,沿海滩涂、米草滩和养殖坑塘的土地利用变化与景观指数之间存在极显著或显著的相关性。在过去35年中,山口红树林保护区经历了重大的土地利用变化,入侵物种(米草滩)和人为干扰(养殖坑塘)是影响该地区红树林湿地变化的主要因素,也是景观破碎度持续增加的主要成因;研究揭示了区域景观变化的影响因素,对典型红树林生态系统的环境管理和保护工作提供理论依据。展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
文摘分析土地利用/覆被变化(Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,LUCC)情况,探究驱动因素,对促进土地资源可持续利用具有重要意义。基于安徽省2000、2010、2020年三期GlobeLand30数据,从变化幅度、速度等角度分析LUCC变化规律与特征,利用相关性分析和随机森林算法量化LUCC的驱动因素。结果表明:20年来,草地、水体、人造地表、裸地面积呈增加态势,耕地、林地和湿地面积逐年减少;从变化速率看,人造地表>湿地>水体>草地>林地>裸地>耕地;各地类间转换频繁,主要表现为耕地转向人造地表,林地退化为草地,湿地流向水体;LUCC变化主要受人口增长和技术进步驱动,气候与生态环境是次要驱动力。基于安徽省随机森林算法的驱动力定量分析,为LUCC驱动机制的研究提供新思路,可为区域土地合理利用、区域可持续发展提供决策依据。
文摘本研究在2022年广西山口国家级红树林生态自然保护区(以下简称山口红树林保护区)实地调查数据的基础上,选取1987—2021年期间6个时相的遥感影像,利用面向对象的图像分类方法,解析土地利用/土地覆盖变化(land-use and land-cover change,LUCC)状况,并基于LUCC计算景观格局指数(landscapepatternindex,LPI),结合LUCC着重探索广西山口红树林保护区湿地变化过程及其重要影响因素。结果表明:从土地利用角度来看,研究区近35年间地类之间不断转换,其中耕地面积持续减少,米草滩和养殖坑塘大比例增长,米草滩主要侵占原沿海滩涂,养殖坑塘主要由林地和耕地转换而来;就景观角度来看:景观破碎度持续增加,连通性逐渐降低,景观形状逐渐变得复杂,地类演替变得频繁;Pearson相关性分析表明,沿海滩涂、米草滩和养殖坑塘的土地利用变化与景观指数之间存在极显著或显著的相关性。在过去35年中,山口红树林保护区经历了重大的土地利用变化,入侵物种(米草滩)和人为干扰(养殖坑塘)是影响该地区红树林湿地变化的主要因素,也是景观破碎度持续增加的主要成因;研究揭示了区域景观变化的影响因素,对典型红树林生态系统的环境管理和保护工作提供理论依据。
