Life Loss Estimation Based on Dam-Break Flood Uncertainties and Lack of Information in Mountainous Regions of Western China

Compared with urban floods, dam-break floods are associated with greater uncertainties, including variable dam-break modes and hydrological characteristics, so conventional flood estimation methods cannot be directly applied in the estimation of dam-break flood loss. In particular, there is scant information regarding the conditions of affected area and hydrological characteristics in southwest China. In this paper, we introduce an integrated model for estimating flood loss that is adapted to the mountainous regions of southwestern China in light of the relative lack of available information. This model has three major components: a basic information model, a dam-routed flood propagation simulation model, and a loss estimation model. We established the basic information model despite the relative lack of available information using 3S technology [remote sensing (RS); geographical information system (GIS); global positioning system (GPS)], data mining technology, and statistical analysis techniques. Our dam-routed flood propagation simulation model consists of major hydrologic processes and their governing equations for flow propagation, which we solve using finite-difference schemes. In this model, the flood propagation area is divided into grids and each grid is determined by the characteristic parameters obtained from the propagation simulation. We present a case study of the Lianghekou hydropower station in Sichuan Province, China to illustrate the practical application of this integrated model for life loss estimation. © 2017, Tianjin University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Model of Probabilistic Prediction for Life Loss

Based on discussion of the reasonableness of the seismic destruction described by using the death degree,the probabilistic curves of the different death degrees with different future times in several regions on the Chinese mainland have been obtained by applying the probabilistic model,which is in accord with present seismic destruction data and related data.The historical data of the life loss have been processed with the dynamic system model.Finally,the results from two kinds of data have been analyzed and discussed.

Theory and Application of Loss of Life Risk Analysis for Dam Break

The loss of life risk evaluation model for dam break is built in this paper.By using an improved Monte Carlo method,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated,and the Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to generate random numbers.The Graham method is used to calculate the loss of life resulting from dam failure.With Dongwushi reservoir located at Hebei Province taken as an example,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated as 4.77×10-6.Los...

Ms 6.5 Earthquake Occurred in Ludian County of Yunnan Province,China,Although Forecast Issued before the Earthquake,Life Casualties and Property Losses were Still Caused Significant

1 Geography Location At 16：30 on August 3rd, 2014, Ludian County, Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province （27.1°N, 103.3°E） was hit by Ms 6.5 earthquake, with the maximum intensity is 9 and epicenter depth is around 12 km （Figs. 1 and 2）.

Impact of cancer diagnosis on life expectancy by area-level socioeconomic groups in New South Wales, Australia: a population-based study

Objective: Improvement in cancer survival over recent decades has not been accompanied by a narrowing of socioeconomic disparities. This study aimed to quantify the loss of life expectancy(LOLE) resulting from a cancer diagnosis and examine disparities in LOLE based on area-level socioeconomic status(SES).Methods: Data were collected for all people between 50 and 89 years of age who were diagnosed with cancer, registered in the NSW Cancer Registry between 2001 and 2019, and underwent mortality follow-up evaluations until December 2020. Flexible parametric survival models were fitted to estimate the LOLE by gender and area-level SES for 12 common cancers.Results: Of 422,680 people with cancer, 24% and 18% lived in the most and least disadvantaged areas, respectively. Patients from the most disadvantaged areas had a significantly greater average LOLE than patients from the least disadvantaged areas for cancers with high survival rates, including prostate [2.9 years(95% CI: 2.5±3.2 years) vs. 1.6 years(95% CI: 1.3±1.9 years)] and breast cancer [1.6 years(95% CI: 1.4±1.8 years) vs. 1.2 years(95% CI: 1.0±1.4 years)]. The highest average LOLE occurred in males residing in the most disadvantaged areas with pancreatic [16.5 years(95% CI: 16.1±16.8 years) vs. 16.2 years(95% CI: 15.7±16.7 years)] and liver cancer [15.5 years(95% CI: 15.0±16.0 years) vs. 14.7 years(95% CI: 14.0±15.5 years)]. Females residing in the least disadvantaged areas with thyroid cancer [0.9 years(95% CI: 0.4±1.4 years) vs. 0.6 years(95% CI: 0.2±1.0 years)] or melanoma [0.9 years(95% CI: 0.8±1.1 years) vs. 0.7 years(95% CI: 0.5±0.8 years)] had the lowest average LOLE.Conclusions: Patients from the most disadvantaged areas had the highest LOLE with SES-based differences greatest for patients diagnosed with cancer at an early stage or cancers with higher survival rates, suggesting the need to prioritise early detection and reduce treatment-related barriers and survivorship challenges to improve life expectancy.

Impact of Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality on Life Expectancy in China

Objective To evaluate the impact of cerebrovascular disease mortality on life expectancy （LE） in China in 2010 compared with 2005, and to identify the high-risk population （age, sex, and region） where cerebrovascular disease mortality has had a major impact on LE. Methods LE and cause-eliminated LE were calculated by using standard life tables which used adjusted mortality data from the Death Surveillance Data Sets in 2005 and 2010 from the National Disease Surveillance System. Decomposition was used to quantitate the impact of cerebrovascular disease in different age groups. Results LE in China was 73.24 years in 2010, which was higher in women and urban residents compared with men and rural residents. The loss of LE caused by cerebrovascular disease mortality was 2.26 years, which was higher in men and rural residents compared with women and urban residents. More than 30% of the loss of LE were attributed to premature death from cerebrovascular disease in people aged 〈65 years. Compared with 2005, LE in 2010 increased by 0.92 years. The reduction of cerebrovascular disease mortality in urban residents contributed 0.45 years to the increase of LE, but the increase of cerebrovascular disease mortality caused a 0.12-year loss of LE in rural residents. Conclusion Cerebrovascular disease mortality had a major impact on LE in China, with a significant difference between urban and rural residents. LE is likely to be further increased by reducing cerebrovascular disease mortality, and special attention should be paid to reducing premature deaths in people aged 〈65 years.

基于nCode DesignLife的电机耐久寿命仿真研究

针对电机耐久寿命评估需要专用试验设备,且存在试验周期长、费用高的问题,结合电机典型的损耗型故障模式,建立了高速电机的有限元模型,提出了基于nCode DesignLife的电机耐久寿命仿真方法,对高速电机的核心部件轴和轴承进行了耐久寿命仿真分析,得到了轴和轴承的应变分布、应力分布、损伤分布和耐久寿命分布。研究表明,耐久寿命仿真技术能够实现电机的寿命薄弱环节的快速挖掘和耐久寿命的快速评估,对于提高电机的耐久寿命具有一定的参考价值。

Assessment of Seismic Indirect Losses Based on Utility Curves

In the process of quantifying optimum seismic design parameters, the losses implying the failure of the system must be assessed. Intangibles such as human lives may lie among indirect losses. In this paper, we propose a model to calculate the value of the investment that society should be willing to make for saving lives. In order to do this, we analyze both individual and social problems. However, special treatment is given to the individual problem where the value of the life of a human being is inferred by what the person should be willing to pay or willing to accept to reduce the risk of dying. Due to the use of utility curves in the calculation of this kind of intangible, we pay special attention to shape and requirement conditions of these curves. We also pay attention when personal impact and legacies or bequests are considered in utility curves. The results are shown through some applications, especially in the computation of optimum seismic design coefficients at a low seismicity site.

深度调峰对汽轮机转子寿命损耗的影响及运行优化研究

电力市场对汽轮机组深度调峰和灵活性运行的要求不断提高。本文对某660 MW汽轮机高压转子在深度调峰工况下的瞬态温度场、应力和寿命损耗进行了计算,对比分析了改变负荷变化率、温度变化率、最低调峰负荷、主蒸汽温度降低幅度等措施对转子峰值应力的影响。基于上述分析结果,在保证转子安全性的前提下,提出了适应深度调峰和灵活性机组的优化运行方案。

Overview of Quality of Life Research in Older People with Visual Impairment

During the past two decades, a number of studies have investigated the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of older people with visual impairment, but the information is fragmented concerning health care providers in the field of gerontology. In this review, findings of HRQOL studies in older adults with different types of age-related ocular disorders or conditions are summarized. Apart from medical treatment and vision rehabilitation, factors that may influence the HRQOL of visually impaired older adults are also examined, including age, gender, socioeconomic status, mobility, comorbidity, family support, social support, use of eye care services, and psychological and spiritual factors. Finally, existing problems are discussed and recommendations for future research are provided. Given the high prevalence of visual impairment among older adults and their unmet needs for eye care and vision rehabilitation, multidisciplinary interventions that may enhance visually impaired older people’s HRQOL are warranted.

基于溃决机理的堰塞湖溃决快速风险评估方法研究

堰塞湖发生后极易形成溃决灾害链,亟需构建基于有限数据包的溃决快速定量风险评估方法。通过快速获取堰塞湖影响区域的三维地理信息,构建溃决-致灾的快速定量评估模型。基于堰塞湖坝体颗粒级配组成,实现精细化、简单化的稳定性快速评价;基于冲蚀特性和崩塌过程溃决机理,实现溃口流量变化过程分析与洪水演进过程模拟(1 h内);基于极限学习机网络模型建立风险人口与生命损失的函数,实现了生命损失评估预警,明晰了溃决-致灾的灾害链效应。将其应用于唐家山堰塞湖实例发现:研究方法能够较好地预警溃决灾害链;开挖引流槽可降低堰塞湖的溃口峰值流量、最大流速、溃口宽度和溃决库容,但无法防止溃决发生;若不开挖引流槽,溃决库容将达到3.14×10^(8) m^(3),溃口峰值流量达到9343.35 m^(3)/s,溃口顶宽增大到151.6 m,开挖引流槽可使溃口峰值流量减少12.6%,溃决库容减少36.5%,降低了堰塞湖的溃决风险;当提前预警时间超过2 h后,及时疏散下游淹没范围内的居民可使生命损失率降低为0。研究方法可实现堰塞湖应急处置时的快速定量风险评估,并为其应急处置决策提供技术支撑。

考虑超标准洪水作用的沥青心墙坝溃决生命损失评估模型

抗冲刷能力更强的沥青心墙坝一旦遭遇超标准洪水,将面临溃决风险,对下游人民造成严重威胁。现有针对沥青心墙坝的溃决生命损失研究尚属匮乏,亟需开展生命损失评估。本文分析超标准洪水作用下沥青心墙坝的溃决特征,考虑生命损失影响因素之间的相互作用过程,基于溃决洪水致灾机制构建生命损失定量评估模型,实现溃决生命损失的快速定量分析;通过方法对比和敏感性分析,明晰不同影响因素对溃决生命损失的作用规律。将模型应用于新疆射月沟溃决案例发现:溃决洪峰流量为3320 m^(3)/s,溃决历时3.35 h,与实际结果相符;生命损失定量模型分析结果为31人,与实际误差在11%以内,优于其他损失模型;风险人口的敏感性指数I_(max)和I_(min)值最大,分别为1.436、0.486,是射月沟溃决生命损失最重要的影响因素,其他依次为洪水严重性、是否撤离、警报时间、淹没范围。

极端降雨条件下淤地坝系溃决损失计算方法

近年来,由于自身“服役”状态欠佳和汛期极端降雨天气频发,淤地坝在发挥综合效益的同时面临着溃决风险。这对下游人民生命财产和生态环境保护造成极大威胁。因此,亟需提出极端降雨条件下淤地坝系溃决损失的定量计算方法。基于“家谱法”坝系溃决风险分析程序FT-IWHR、溃口流量程序DB-IWHR、一维洪水演进计算程序,提出淤地坝系溃决—洪水演进全过程计算方法,结合李—周法生命损失计算模型等,构建涵盖生命损失、经济损失、社会环境影响3方面的溃决损失计算方法体系;并在西五色浪流域淤地坝系进行应用。结果表明:警报时间对生命损失数量影响极大,充分警报和无警报下生命损失数量相差10倍左右且降雨量超过100年一遇后损失激增,坝系以中小型淤地坝溃决为主。溃决损失计算方法可实现对淤地坝系溃决损失进行快速量化评估,为淤地坝系安全度汛和病险坝除险加固工作提供技术支撑,同时建议西五色浪流域做好中小型淤地坝的溃决风险防控工作。

Effect of Pre-Harvest Application of Gibberellic Acid on Fruit Quality and Shelf Life of Mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco)

Mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco) is a promising fruit crop gaining popularity for its human nutrition and economic importance in Nepal. The qualitative losses during pre-harvest stage hinder the productivity and subsequently shorten the on-tree storability. An experiment was conducted to assess the effect of gibberellic acid on quality and shelf life of the mandarin fruit. GA3 at 10, 20, and 30 ppm as against of control were evaluated. Observations on fruit weight (g), fruit firmness (kg/cm2), rind colour (1 - 5 index), juice recovery (%), TSS/acid ratio, PLW (%), decay loss (%), and ascorbic acid (mg/100 ml) were recorded at three harvesting dates i.e. 20 Nov, 5 Dec, and 20 Dec and storage condition. It has been revealed that the fruits treated with GA3 at 20 ppm retained higher fruit weight (128.6 g), more firmness (3.54 kg/cm2), better juice recovery (57.75%), and greater TSS/acid ratio (21.24) at the end of study (20 December). The PLW was found less with GA3 at 30 ppm in both ambient (5.17%) and cellar (6.69%) condition as against untreated fruits (9.52% and 11.76%). Similarly, the decay loss was minimum in the fruits treated with GA3 at 30 ppm both with ambient (1.02%) and cellar condition (8.21%) as against control with ambient (5.54%) and cellar (21.58%).

基于SOP动态一致性的退役动力电池模组筛选方法研究

针对退役电池初始特性参数不一致性,多因素影响下电池模组筛选效果不佳的难题,提出一种基于SOP动态一致性的电池模组筛选方法。首先,为表征退役动力电池梯次利用筛选时初始特性,选取退役动力电池的端电压、容量和内阻作为静态筛选的参量,并提出基于密度思想的改进K-均值聚类的静态筛选方法;其次,从静态筛选结果中选取一致性较好的单体电池,建立电压、荷电状态(SOC)、电池健康状态(SOH)等因素与功率状态(SOP)的特征关系,对退役动力电池SOP动态特性进行估计;最后,将SOP一致性较好的退役电池串联成组,建立SOP与电池模组寿命损耗关联关系,基于SOP动态一致性进行电池模组的动态筛选。通过仿真分析验证所提筛选方法的有效性,可有效延长退役电池的使用寿命。

影响地震生命损失的若干因素探讨——以2023年积石山6.2级地震为例

2023年12月18日午夜,我国甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生6.2级地震,地震造成灾区严重的人员伤亡、建筑物和基础设施损失。该地震造成遇难和失踪人数达151人,相对于其震级大小,是典型的“中震大灾”。本文初步分析了积石山地震区域地震构造与震源破裂特点、人口与房屋建筑分布与抗震能力影响、地震次生地质灾害的作用,以及地理气象环境、发震时间与季节等因素对加重本次地震灾害的影响。结果有助于开展综合多因素的地震灾害损失评估方法研究,提高地震损失评估的准确性,提升震后应急处置效果。

三电平辅助变流器寿命优化控制

辅助变流系统是动车组车辆上关键的电气组成部分,主要为空调机组、风机、照明等交流负载提供稳定的三相电源。结温是影响动车组三电平辅助变流器IGBT(Insulated-gate Bipolar Transistor)模块寿命的主要因素。为了提高动车组三电平中点钳位(Neutral-Point Clamped,NPC)型辅助变流器寿命,提出一种降低结温的模型预测电流控制(Model Predictive Current Control,MPCC)策略。首先,考虑传统MPCC在每个采样周期需要代入27个电压矢量循环计算,计算量较大,因此将三电平基本电压矢量划分在间隔60°的6个扇区中,通过计算电压矢量在两相静止坐标下的相角,进而判断参考电压矢量所处扇区,将备选矢量数目从27缩减至10,减少了计算量;其次,传统MPCC直接应用于动车组辅助变流器会使IGBT模块的结温较高,老化速度加快,对变流器安全稳定运行产生不可预测的损害,本文对IGBT模块的开关损耗和导通损耗进行近似等效,得到了和集射极电压、集电极电流相关的功率损耗因子。通过预测每相电流的方向,进而预测IGBT模块的开关和导通情况,动态加入功率损耗因子,并在代价函数中约束每相IGBT及其续流二极管(Free Wheeling Diode,FWD)的功率损耗,使得最优电压矢量在降低功率损耗的同时保证一定的控制性能。通过仿真与实验验证,本文所提方法相比传统MPCC策略降低了功率器件的结温,提高了变流器寿命。

基于位错运动的弹簧应力松弛方程应用研究

评价弹簧的强压处理工艺、预测弹簧的贮存寿命和载荷损失具有重要的工程意义。本文对圆柱螺旋压缩弹簧进行应力松弛试验,利用基于位错运动的应力松弛方程对加速试验数据进行拟合分析,提出评价弹簧强压处理效果的方法,并对应力松弛方程进行线性化处理,导出弹簧寿命预测方程和载荷预测方程,给出计算载荷损失误差的方法,预测圆柱螺旋压缩弹簧的寿命和载荷损失,并对其进行试验验证。结果表明:本文提出的弹簧应力松弛方程效果较好,载荷损失预测误差在±2%以内。

湖北省雷电灾损特征评估

基于2000-2020年湖北省雷电灾害资料,统计了雷电灾害的等级、经济损失、人员伤亡以及受灾行业等信息,分析了不同等级雷电灾害变化特征、受灾行业以及生命和经济损失特征。结果表明:2000-2020年湖北省雷灾以一般和较大等级为主,占比达96.31%,重大、较大、一般等级雷灾均呈先上升后降低的特征;鄂东地区为雷灾高发区,江汉平原常发生较大及以上等级的雷灾,而鄂西地区以一般等级雷灾为主;农、林、牧、渔业最易遭受雷灾,其伤亡和设备损坏也最严重,但呈下降趋势;制造业因雷灾造成的经济损失最大,尤其是在鄂东北地区;全省生命损失指数呈东高西低的分布特征,高至较高生命、经济损失指数主要集中在鄂东中部地区,少量散布在鄂西北和江汉平原局地。

Reliability-Based Full-Life Cycle Optimum Design of Offshore Jacket Platform

Based on the consideration of operation environment and structural property, an optimum design model of offshore jacket platform is developed in this paper, namely, the reliability-based full-life cycle optimum design model. In this model, the time-dependent reliability assessment method for structural members is established by combination of the decrease of sectional size and performance deterioration of material. The initial investment, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are assembled into the model. The total cost of the platform structure system in its full service period is chosen as the objective function, and the initial reliabilities of the layer elements partitioned in advance are taken as the design variables. Different models are obtained, depending on whether the system reliability constraint is considered or not. This optimum design model can result in the lowest full-life cost and the optimal initial layer reliability of an offshore jacket platform in the design of marine structures. The feasibility of this model is illustrated with an actual jacket platform in the Liaodong Gulf as an example.