Sensitivity of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to the Use of Reference Atmosphere

In this paper, the authors develop the earlier work of Chen Jiabin et al. (1986). In order to reduce spectral truncation errors, the reference atmosphere has been introduced in ECMWF model, and the spectrally-represented variables, temperature, geopotential height and orography, are replaced by their deviations from the reference atmosphere. Two modified semi- implicit schemes have been proposed to alleviate the computational instability due to the introduction of reference atmosphere. Concerning the deviation of surface geopotential height from reference atmosphere, an exact computational formulation has been used instead of the approximate one in the earlier work. To re duce aliasing errors in the computations of the deviation of the surface geopotential height, a spectral fit has been used slightly to modify the original Gaussian grid-point values of orography.A series of experiments has been performed in order to assess the impact of the reference atmosphere on ECMWF medium- range forecasts at the resolution T21, T42 and T63. The results we have obtained reveal that the reference atmosphere introduced in ECMWF spectral model is generally beneficial to the mean statistical scores of 1000-200 hPa height 10-day forecasts over the globe. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is a clear improvement for T21, T42 and T63 throughout the 10-day forecast period. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impact of the reference atmos phere on anomaly correlation is positive for resolution T21, a very slightly damaging at T42 and almost neutral at T63 in the range of day 1 to day 4. Beyond the day 4 there is a clear improvement at all resolutions.

A Numerical Research on the Influences of the Diurnal Variation of Solar Radiation on the Medium-Range Weather Processes

In this paper, we use a spectral model for the medium-range numerical weather forecast to discuss the impact of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on the medium-range weather processes. Under the tests of two typical winter and summer cases, we find that the influences of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on summer weather are really important, especially on its rainfall, surface heat transport and 500 hPa height field. On winter weather, however, the influences are very weak.

MEDIUM-RANGE OSCILLATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS AT GREAT WALL STATION,ANTARCTICA

A method of multi-spectral analysis is used to study the spectral characteristics of surface and upper-level meteorological elements over the Great Wall Station (62°12'S, 58°57'W), Antarctica and their phasecorrelation, propagation of mean oscillation at 500hPa level in the Southern Hemisphere and their corresponding synoptic sense. the results are summed up as follows: 1. Over the sub-Antatctic zone, as in the Northern Hemisphere there generally exist quasi-weekly oscillation and quasi-biweekly oscillation. In different seasons the oscillations of meteorological elements are different: in winter season quasi-biweekly oscillation is dominant, while in summer season quasi-weekly oscillation is dominant. 2. From the Earth's surface to the lower stratosphere there is a distinct quasi-weekly oscillation at each isobaric surface, but the most intense oscillation appears at 200-300hPa, and the oscillations of height and temperature are propagated downward. 3. Both in winter and summer seasons the quasi-biweekly oscillation are propagated from west to east, and the mean velocity of its propagation is about 7-17 longtitude / day. 4. The quasi-biweekly oscillation and the quasi-weekly oscillation over the sub - Antarctic zone are closely related to the activity and intensity variation of polar vortex at 500hPa, while at 1000hPa they reflect an interaction between the circumpolar depression and the sub-tropical high. The quasi-biweekly oscillation may be a reflection of inherent oscillation of the polar vortex, where as the quasi-weekly oscillation is a result of forced oscillation by external disturbance.A large number of calculations and analysis made reveals the features of medium-range oscillation over the sub-Antarctic zone. The results are of significance for understanding the behaviour of synoptic dynamics and making the weather forecast.This work is supported by National Committee for Antarctic Research.

Diagnosis of the Medium-Range Variation of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific during a Meiyu Process by Three-Dimensional E-P Flux

In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.

Medium-Range Oscillations in the Summer Tropical Easterlies at 200 hPa

By the use of space-time spectral analysis and band-pass filter, some of the features of the medium-range oscillations in the summer tropical easterlies (10 S-20 N) at 200 hPa are investigated based on a two-year (1980 and 1982) wind (u, v) data set for the period from May to September. Space-time power spectral analysis shows that the total energy of the westward moving waves was the largest and that of the standing waves and eastward mov ing waves was relatively small in the 200 hPa easterlies: the total energy of the eastward moving waves was m minimum at 10° N. Three kinds of the medium-range oscillations with about 50 day, 25 day and quasi-biweekly periods were found in the easterlies, which all show a remarkable interannual variations and latitudinal differences in these two years. The wave energy of zonal wind is mainly associated with the planetary waves (1-3). which all may make important contributions to the 50 day and 25 day oscillations in different years or different latitudes, The quasi-biweekly oscillation is mainly related to the synoptic waves (4-6). In equatorial region, the 50 day oscillation was dominant with a eastward phase propagation in 1982 while the dominant oscillation in 1980 was of 25 day period with a westward phase propagations in 1980. Both of them are of the mode of zonal wavenumber 1. Strong westward 50 day oscillation was found in 10° N-20° N in these two years. Regular propagations of the meridional wind 50 cay oscillation were also found in the easterlies.The 50 day and 25 day oscillation of zonal wind all demonstrate southward phase propagation over the region of the South Asia monsoon and northward phase propagation near international date line, where are the climatic mean position of the tropical upper-tropospheric easterly jet and the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). respectively.

Application of synoptic-scale anomalous winds predicted by medium-range weather forecast models on the regional heavy rainfall in China in 2010

Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind,planetary-scale anomalous wind,and synoptic-scale anomalous wind.The 850 hPa synoptic-scale anomalous winds were extracted from the numerical model outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) and the NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS).The results showed that most rain bands in eastern China in 2010 were located along the anomalous convergence lines.To predict the major rain bands by these convergence lines in 2010,the accuracies of the ECMWF products were 100%,85%,and 15% for leading 3,6,and 9 days,while the GFS products showed 53%,15%,and 6% accuracies,respectively.In comparison of the regional heavy rainfalls between observation and the ECMWF model prediction,the useful leading information was about 3.1 days for direct model rain prediction and 6.7 days for convergence systems predicted by ECMWF model.

In situ study on medium-range order evolution during the polyamorphous phase transition in a Pd-Ni-P nanostructured glass

Engineering multiscale structural hierarchies in glassy alloys enable a broad spectrum of potential applications.Metallic glasses were born in hierarchical structures from atomic-to-nanometer scales.However,the frozen-in structures in traditional metallic glasses prepared by rapid quenching techniques are challenging to tailor.Here,we show that a PdNiPbulk nanostructured glass of polyamorphous interfacial structures was prepared by inert-gas condensation with a laser evaporation source,and its multiscale structures could be engineered.In-situ scattering experiment results reveal polyamorphous phase transitions occurred in the interfacial regions,which are accompanied by the evolution of medium-range order and the nanoscale heterogeneous structures during the condensation process of glassy nanoparticles under high pressure and the following heating process.Moreover,changes in the cluster connectivity resulting from repacking of the local ordering induced by pressure and temperature could be observed.The thermophysical and mechanical properties,including boson peaks,hardness,and elasticity modulus,could be changed as a function of heat-treatment parameters.Our findings would shed light on the synthesis of bulk nanostructured glassy alloys with tailorable thermodynamic and dynamical behavior as well as mechanical properties based on the understanding of metastability for polyamorphous interfacial phases.

MEDIUM-RANGE OSCILLATION AND TELECONNECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEANS

This paper aims to demonstrate some characteristics of the 20-50 day oscillations of certain circulation systems in low latitudes during the northern summer seasons.The teleconnection between the variations of the Mascarene high and the Northwest Pacific high and its physical mechanism are studied.How the Mas- carene high plays an important role in the interaction between the atmospheric circulations of both hemispheres is discussed.

Medium-range order endows a bulk metallic glass with enhanced tensile ductility

Developing ductile bulk metallic glasses(BMGs)can benefit from an in-depth understanding of the structure-property relation during plastic deformation.However,endowing BMGs with tensile ductility in BMGs needs to reveal the response of critical structure units during deformation.Here,we report the experimental results of an in-situ synchrotron high-energy X-ray study of a Zr-based BMG under uniaxial tension after preprocessing by canning compression of the three-dimensional compressive stress state.It is revealed that the canning-compressed BMG(CC-BMG)sample has better tensile ductility and higher ultimate strength than the as-cast sample,which possesses heterogeneous and loosely packed local struc-tures on medium-range scales.The experimental results revealed two stages of plastic deformation in the CC-BMGs compared with one stage of plastic deformation in the as-cast BMG.Moreover,the shift in the first sharp diffraction peak along the tension direction for the canning-compressed sample is substan-tially more pronounced than that of the as-cast sample.Furthermore,the real-space analysis illustrates a competition mechanism between the 2-atom and 3-atom connection modes on medium-range order during the plastic deformation of the CC-BMG.Additionally,the ordering on the medium-range scale de-creases in the first plastic deformation stage but increases in the second plastic deformation stage.There-fore,a structural crossover phenomenon occurs in the CC-BMG during plastic deformation.Our results demonstrate a structure-property correlation for the CC-BMGs of heterogeneous medium-range ordered structures,which may be beneficial for endowing BMGs with ductility based on medium-range order engineering techniques.

A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF THE QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER PROCESSES OF THE SUMMER MONSOON RAIN IN EAST ASIA

By employing the T42L9 spectral model introduced flom ECMWF and utilizing the FGGE-III_b data covering the period from 14 June to 19 June 1979,the effects of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the medium- range weather processes of the rain during the onset period of the summer monsoon in Eastern Asia in 1979 were studied numerically.According to the initial field of 12GMT 14 June 1979,five-day numerical experiments with or without the orographic effects were carried out respectively.The results show that the Plateau can influence the precipitation significantly during the summer monsoon season.Although the summer monsoon is the result of the seasonal variations of the global circulation and the heating difference between land and sea,it is influenced evidently by the Plateau in medium-range processes.There are very complex interactions between the mountain and diabatic heating effects so that both of them should be considered correctly in the general circulation models in order to describe the nature of the atmosphere reliably.

THE MEDIUM-RANGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OPERATION SYSTEM IN THE CHINA NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

It is not only meteorological problems for the medium-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) research to be in operation,but also engineering and technological problems.Here we gener- ally described the results of research,engineering construction,operation information and testing,in the course of set-up of medium-range NWP operation system in the China National Meteorological Center.

Evolution of medium-range order and its correlation with magnetic nanodomains in Fe-Dy-B-Nb bulk metallic glasses

Fe-based metallic glasses are promising functional materials for advanced magnetism and sensor fields.Tailoring magnetic performance in amorphous materials requires a thorough knowledge of the correlation between structural disorder and magnetic order,which remains ambiguous.Two practical difficulties remain:the first is directly observing subtle magnetic structural changes on multiple scales,and the second is precisely regulating the various amorphous states.Here we propose a novel approach to tailor the amorphous structure through the liquid-liquid phase transition.In-situ synchrotron diffraction has unraveled a medium-range ordering process dominated by edge-sharing cluster connectivity during the liquid-liquid phase transition.Moreover,nanodomains with topological order have been found to exist in composition with liquid-liquid phase transition,manifesting as hexagonal patterns in small-angle neutron scattering profiles.The liquid-liquid phase transition can induce the nanodomains to be more locally ordered,generating stronger exchange interactions due to the reduced Fe–Fe bond length and the enhanced structural order,leading to the increment of saturation magnetization.Furthermore,the increased local heterogeneity at the medium-range scale enhances the magnetic anisotropy,promoting the permeability response under applied stress and leading to a better stress-impedance effect.These experimental results pave the way to tailor the magnetic structure and performance through the liquid-liquid phase transition.

Influence of vapor pressure deficit on vegetation growth in China

Vapor pressure deficit(VPD)plays a crucial role in determining plant physiological functions and exerts a substantial influence on vegetation,second only to carbon dioxide(CO_(2)).As a robust indicator of atmospheric water demand,VPD has implications for global water resources,and its significance extends to the structure and functioning of ecosystems.However,the influence of VPD on vegetation growth under climate change remains unclear in China.This study employed empirical equations to estimate the VPD in China from 2000 to 2020 based on meteorological reanalysis data of the Climatic Research Unit(CRU)Time-Series version 4.06(TS4.06)and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis 5(ERA-5).Vegetation growth status was characterized using three vegetation indices,namely gross primary productivity(GPP),leaf area index(LAI),and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation(NIRv).The spatiotemporal dynamics of VPD and vegetation indices were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test.Furthermore,the influence of VPD on vegetation growth and its relative contribution were assessed using a multiple linear regression model.The results indicated an overall negative correlation between VPD and vegetation indices.Three VPD intervals for the correlations between VPD and vegetation indices were identified:a significant positive correlation at VPD below 4.820 hPa,a significant negative correlation at VPD within 4.820–9.000 hPa,and a notable weakening of negative correlation at VPD above 9.000 hPa.VPD exhibited a pronounced negative impact on vegetation growth,surpassing those of temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation in absolute magnitude.CO_(2) contributed most positively to vegetation growth,with VPD offsetting approximately 30.00%of the positive effect of CO_(2).As the rise of VPD decelerated,its relative contribution to vegetation growth diminished.Additionally,the intensification of spatial variations in temperature and precipitation accentuated the spatial heterogeneity in the impact of VPD on vegetation growth in China.This research provides a theoretical foundation for addressing climate change in China,especially regarding the challenges posed by increasing VPD.

Comprehensive applicability evaluation of four precipitation products at multiple spatiotemporal scales in Northwest China

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.

A Study on Reconstruction of Surface Wind Speed in China Due to Various Climate Variabilities

Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis V5(ERA5)reanalysis data,this study investigated the reconstruction effects of various climate variabilities on surface wind speed in China from 1979 to 2022.The results indicated that the reconstructed annual mean wind speed and the standard deviation of the annual mean wind speed,utilizing various climate variability indices,exhibited similar spatial modes to the reanalysis data,with spatial correlation coefficients of 0.99 and 0.94,respectively.In the reconstruction of six major wind power installed capacity provinces/autonomous regions in China,the effects were notably good for Hebei and Shanxi provinces,with the correlation coefficients for the interannual regional average wind speed time series being 0.65 and 0.64,respectively.The reconstruction effects of surface wind speed differed across seasons,with spring and summer reconstructions showing the highest correlation with reanalysis data.The correlation coefficients for all seasons across most regions in China ranged between 0.4 and 0.8.Among the reconstructed seasonal wind speeds for the six provinces/autonomous regions,Shanxi Province in spring exhibited the highest correlation with the reanalysis,with a coefficient of 0.61.The large-scale climate variability indices showed good reconstruction effects on the annual mean wind speed in China,and could explain the interannual variability trends of surface wind speed in most regions of China,particularly in the main wind energy provinces/autonomous regions.

WRF、EC和T639模式在福建沿海冬半年大风预报中的检验与应用

基于福建省冬半年沿海和港湾岛屿自动站的逐时极大风观测资料和WRF（Weather Research and Forecast）、EC（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）细网格以及T639（TL639L60）三种模式预报的10 m风场资料，将模式预报的风向风速与观测资料进行对比检验，结果表明：福建省沿海冬半年大风的盛行风向以东北风为主，大风的时空分布极为不均，沿海风力的脉动性、跳跃性、局地性突出。从三种模式对风速风向的模拟效果来看， WRF和EC细网格的预报效果较好，有可参考性， T639可参考性不高。对于风速，模式预报结果相比实况极大风速偏小，港湾岛屿代表站风速的平均绝对误差均小于沿海代表站，预报平均误差由沿海向内陆逐渐减小，由中部向南北逐渐减小。风向相比风速的预报效果要差， WRF和EC细网格的风向预报误差在45°-50°，有一定的参考意义；港湾岛屿代表站风向的平均绝对误差大于沿海代表站，以浮标站的误差最大。当观测风速出现7级及以上风速时，若对大风进行分级检验，则较低风速的预报平均绝对误差小于较高风速；风向预报的平均绝对误差也大大降低，且误差都在45°以内，具有良好的参考性。

Correlation between pre-peak in structure factor and physical properties in Al-based amorphous alloys

To study the influence of Fe addition on the Al-based amorphous alloys,the structure and properties of Al84Ni10La6 and Al84Ni9Fe1La6 alloys were investigated through various techniques.The results show that 1% Fe（molar fraction） addition increases the area of the pre-peak in the structure factor and decreases the thermal expansion coefficient difference between the crystalline and amorphous states.1% Fe addition also improves the glass forming ability（GFA）,micro-hardness,fracture toughness,electric resistivity,absolute diamagnetism and corrosion resistance of Al-Ni-La alloys,which is related to the changes of medium-range order and quench-in free volume caused by 1% Fe addition.

A Comparison Study of the Methods of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Singular Vectors in Ensemble Prediction

The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations （CNOPs） as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-geostrophic （QG） model in a perfect-model scenario. Ensemble forecasts for the medium range （14 days） are made from the initial states perturbed by CNOPs and singular vectors （SVs）. 13 different cases have been chosen when analysis error is a kind of fast growing error. Our experiments show that the introduction of CNOP provides better forecast skill than the SV method. Moreover, the spread-skill relationship reveals that the ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP appear superior to those obtained by SVs from day 6 to day 14. Rank diagrams are adopted to compare the new method with the SV approach. The results illustrate that the introduction of CNOP has higher reliability for medium-range ensemble forecasts.

VARIATION OF THE EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED QUANTIFIED OBJECTIVE INDEXES

In order to understand the role of East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) in forecasting summer precipitation in East China,interseasonal pentad characteristics of the EASWJ and their relation to summer precipitation in East China are analyzed with the daily reanalysis data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP,USA) and daily precipitation data from 714 Chinese meteorological stations during the period 1960-2009.In addition,the daily evolution of the EASWJ and objective quantification of the EASWJ are investigated for the Meiyu season over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.It is found that the EASWJ and summer precipitation bands in East China move simultaneously.Especially,the stationary state and northward shift of the EASWJ are closely associated with the beginning,ending and stabilization of the annually first raining season in South China and Meiyu over these reaches.Analysis on the characteristics of the EASWJ in typical (atypical) Meiyu years over these reaches shows that the EASWJ swings steadily around its climatological position in meridional orientation (with large amplitude).Numerical experiments on an example in 2005 shows that indexes proposed in this study can depict the EASWJ well and should be valuable for application in the operation.

A Two-step Estimation Method of Troposphere Delay with Consideration of Mapping Function Errors

Mapping function errors are usually not taken into consideration, when space geodetic data observed by VLBI, GNSS and some other techniques are utilized to estimate troposphere delay, which could, however, probably bring non-ignorable errors to solutions. After analyzing the variation of mapping function errors with elevation angles based on several-year meteorological data, this paper constructed a model of this error and then proposed a two-step estimation method of troposphere delay with consideration of mapping function errors. The experimental results indicate that the method put forward by this paper could reduce the slant path delay residuals efficiently and improve the estimation accuracy of wet tropospheric delay to some extent.