Construction of Parsimonious Event Risk Scores by an Ensemble Method. An Illustration for Short-Term Predictions in Chronic Heart Failure Patients from the GISSI-HF Trial

Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for constructing parsimonious event risk scores combining a stepwise selection of variables with ensemble scores obtained by aggregation of several scores, using several classifiers, bootstrap samples and various modalities of random selection of variables. Selection methods based on a probabilistic model can be used to achieve a stepwise selection for a given classifier such as logistic regression, but not directly for an ensemble classifier constructed by aggregation of several classifiers. Three selection methods are proposed in this framework, two involving a backward selection of the variables based on their coefficients in an ensemble score and the third involving a forward selection of the variables maximizing the AUC. The stepwise selection allows constructing a succession of scores, with the practitioner able to choose which score best fits his needs. These three methods are compared in an application to construct parsimonious short-term event risk scores in chronic HF patients, using as event the composite endpoint of death or hospitalization for worsening HF within 180 days of a visit. Focusing on the fastest method, four scores are constructed, yielding out-of-bag AUCs ranging from 0.81 (26 variables) to 0.76 (2 variables).

The Selection of Proper Auxiliary Parameters in the Homotopy Analysis Method. A Case Study: Uniform Solutions of Undamped Duffing Equation

The present paper is concerned with two novel approximate analytic solutions of the undamped Duffing equation. Instead of the traditional perturbation or asymptotic methods, a homotopy technique is employed, which does not require a small perturbation parameter or a large parameter for an asymptotic expansion. It is shown that proper choices of an auxiliary linear operator and also an initial approximation during the implementation of the homotopy analysis method can yield uniformly valid and accurate solutions. The obtained explicit analytical expressions for the solution predict the displacement, frequency and period of the oscillations much more accurate than the previously known asymptotic or perturbation formulas.

Modeling of the Saltwater Intrusion Using the Level Set Method. Application to Henry’s Problem

The salt intrusion phenomenon is caused by overexploitation of aquifers in coastal areas. This physical phenomenon has been the subject of numerous studies and numerous methods have been proposed, with the aim of protecting the quality of the water in these aquifers. This work proposes a two-dimensional saline intrusion model using the sharp interface approach and the level set method. It consists of a parabolic equation modeling the underground flow and a hyperbolic Equation (the level set equation) which makes it possible to track the evolution of the interface. High-order numerical schemes such as the space scheme WENO5 and the third-order time scheme TVD-RK were used for the numerical resolution of the hyperbolic equation. To limit the tightening of the contour curves of the level set function, the redistanciation or reinitialization algorithm proposed by Sussma et al. (1994) was used. To ensure the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed method, two tests relating to the standard Henry problem and the modified Henry problem were performed. Recall that Henry’s problem uses the variable density modeling approach in a confined and homogeneous aquifer. By comparing the results obtained by the level set method with reinitialization (LSMR) and those obtained by Henry (1964), and by Simpson and Clement (2004), we see in the two test cases that the level set method reproduces well the toe, the tip and the behaviour of the interface. These results correspond to the results obtained by Abarca for Henry’s problem with constant dispersion coefficients. The results obtained with LSMR, reproduced the interface with a slight spacing compared to those obtained by Henry. According to Abarca (2006), this spacing is due to the absence of the longitudinal and transversal dispersion coefficients in the model.

Stabilization With Prescribed Instant via Lyapunov Method

Dear Editor,This letter presents a prescribed-instant stabilization approach to high-order integrator systems by the Lyapunov method. Under the presented controller, the settling time of controlled systems is independent of the initial conditions and equals the prescribed time instant.

A comparison study on structure-function relationship of polysaccharides obtained from sea buckthorn berries using different methods:antioxidant and bile acid-binding capacity

In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic(HRP-U),acid(HRP-C)and alkali(HRP-A)assisted extraction methods were investigated.The results demonstrated that extraction methods had significant effects on extraction yield,monosaccharide composition,molecular weight,particle size,triple-helical structure,and surface morphology of HRPs except for the major linkage bands.Thermogravimetric analysis showed that HRP-U with filamentous reticular microstructure exhibited better thermal stability.The HRP-A with the lowest molecular weight and highest arabinose content possessed the best antioxidant activities.Moreover,the rheological analysis indicated that HRPs with higher galacturonic acid content and molecular weight showed higher viscosity and stronger crosslinking network(HRP-C,HRP-W and HRP-U),which exhibited stronger bile acid binding capacity.The present findings provide scientific evidence in the preparation technology of sea buckthorn polysaccharides with good antioxidant and bile acid binding capacity which are related to the structure affected by the extraction methods.

Drilling-based measuring method for the c-φ parameter of rock and its field application

The technology of drilling tests makes it possible to obtain the strength parameter of rock accurately in situ. In this paper, a new rock cutting analysis model that considers the influence of the rock crushing zone(RCZ) is built. The formula for an ultimate cutting force is established based on the limit equilibrium principle. The relationship between digital drilling parameters(DDP) and the c-φ parameter(DDP-cφ formula, where c refers to the cohesion and φ refers to the internal friction angle) is derived, and the response of drilling parameters and cutting ratio to the strength parameters is analyzed. The drillingbased measuring method for the c-φ parameter of rock is constructed. The laboratory verification test is then completed, and the difference in results between the drilling test and the compression test is less than 6%. On this basis, in-situ rock drilling tests in a traffic tunnel and a coal mine roadway are carried out, and the strength parameters of the surrounding rock are effectively tested. The average difference ratio of the results is less than 11%, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method for obtaining the strength parameters based on digital drilling. This study provides methodological support for field testing of rock strength parameters.

A Review on Sources,Extractions and Analysis Methods of a Sustainable Biomaterial:Tannins

Condensed and hydrolysable tannins are non-toxic natural polyphenols that are a commercial commodity industrialized for tanning hides to obtain leather and for a growing number of other industrial applications mainly to substitute petroleum-based products.They are a definite class of sustainable materials of the forestry industry.They have been in operation for hundreds of years to manufacture leather and now for a growing number of applications in a variety of other industries,such as wood adhesives,metal coating,pharmaceutical/medical applications and several others.This review presents the main sources,either already or potentially commercial of this forestry by-materials,their industrial and laboratory extraction systems,their systems of analysis with their advantages and drawbacks,be these methods so simple to even appear primitive but nonetheless of proven effectiveness,or very modern and instrumental.It constitutes a basic but essential summary of what is necessary to know of these sustainable materials.In doing so,the review highlights some of the main challenges that remain to be addressed to deliver the quality and economics of tannin supply necessary to fulfill the industrial production requirements for some materials-based uses.

Material point method simulation of hydro-mechanical behaviour in twophase porous geomaterials: A state-of-the-art review

The material point method(MPM)has been gaining increasing popularity as an appropriate approach to the solution of coupled hydro-mechanical problems involving large deformation.In this paper,we survey the current state-of-the-art in the MPM simulation of hydro-mechanical behaviour in two-phase porous geomaterials.The review covers the recent advances and developments in the MPM and their extensions to capture the coupled hydro-mechanical problems involving large deformations.The focus of this review is aiming at providing a clear picture of what has or has not been developed or implemented for simulating two-phase coupled large deformation problems,which will provide some direct reference for both practitioners and researchers.

Efficient slope reliability and sensitivity analysis using quantile-based first-order second-moment method

This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.

Volumetric lattice Boltzmann method for pore-scale mass diffusionadvection process in geopolymer porous structures

Porous materials present significant advantages for absorbing radioactive isotopes in nuclear waste streams.To improve absorption efficiency in nuclear waste treatment,a thorough understanding of the diffusion-advection process within porous structures is essential for material design.In this study,we present advancements in the volumetric lattice Boltzmann method(VLBM)for modeling and simulating pore-scale diffusion-advection of radioactive isotopes within geopolymer porous structures.These structures are created using the phase field method(PFM)to precisely control pore architectures.In our VLBM approach,we introduce a concentration field of an isotope seamlessly coupled with the velocity field and solve it by the time evolution of its particle population function.To address the computational intensity inherent in the coupled lattice Boltzmann equations for velocity and concentration fields,we implement graphics processing unit(GPU)parallelization.Validation of the developed model involves examining the flow and diffusion fields in porous structures.Remarkably,good agreement is observed for both the velocity field from VLBM and multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment(MOOSE),and the concentration field from VLBM and the finite difference method(FDM).Furthermore,we investigate the effects of background flow,species diffusivity,and porosity on the diffusion-advection behavior by varying the background flow velocity,diffusion coefficient,and pore volume fraction,respectively.Notably,all three parameters exert an influence on the diffusion-advection process.Increased background flow and diffusivity markedly accelerate the process due to increased advection intensity and enhanced diffusion capability,respectively.Conversely,increasing the porosity has a less significant effect,causing a slight slowdown of the diffusion-advection process due to the expanded pore volume.This comprehensive parametric study provides valuable insights into the kinetics of isotope uptake in porous structures,facilitating the development of porous materials for nuclear waste treatment applications.

Sparse Modal Decomposition Method Addressing Underdetermined Vortex-Induced Vibration Reconstruction Problem for Marine Risers

When investigating the vortex-induced vibration(VIV)of marine risers,extrapolating the dynamic response on the entire length based on limited sensor measurements is a crucial step in both laboratory experiments and fatigue monitoring of real risers.The problem is conventionally solved using the modal decomposition method,based on the principle that the response can be approximated by a weighted sum of limited vibration modes.However,the method is not valid when the problem is underdetermined,i.e.,the number of unknown mode weights is more than the number of known measurements.This study proposed a sparse modal decomposition method based on the compressed sensing theory and the Compressive Sampling Matching Pursuit(Co Sa MP)algorithm,exploiting the sparsity of VIV in the modal space.In the validation study based on high-order VIV experiment data,the proposed method successfully reconstructed the response using only seven acceleration measurements when the conventional methods failed.A primary advantage of the proposed method is that it offers a completely data-driven approach for the underdetermined VIV reconstruction problem,which is more favorable than existing model-dependent solutions for many practical applications such as riser structural health monitoring.

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

Numerical manifold method for thermo-mechanical coupling simulation of fractured rock mass

As a calculation method based on the Galerkin variation,the numerical manifold method(NMM)adopts a double covering system,which can easily deal with discontinuous deformation problems and has a high calculation accuracy.Aiming at the thermo-mechanical(TM)coupling problem of fractured rock masses,this study uses the NMM to simulate the processes of crack initiation and propagation in a rock mass under the influence of temperature field,deduces related system equations,and proposes a penalty function method to deal with boundary conditions.Numerical examples are employed to confirm the effectiveness and high accuracy of this method.By the thermal stress analysis of a thick-walled cylinder(TWC),the simulation of cracking in the TWC under heating and cooling conditions,and the simulation of thermal cracking of the SwedishÄspöPillar Stability Experiment(APSE)rock column,the thermal stress,and TM coupling are obtained.The numerical simulation results are in good agreement with the test data and other numerical results,thus verifying the effectiveness of the NMM in dealing with thermal stress and crack propagation problems of fractured rock masses.

An inverse analysis of fluid flow through granular media using differentiable lattice Boltzmann method

This study presents a method for the inverse analysis of fluid flow problems.The focus is put on accurately determining boundary conditions and characterizing the physical properties of granular media,such as permeability,and fluid components,like viscosity.The primary aim is to deduce either constant pressure head or pressure profiles,given the known velocity field at a steady-state flow through a conduit containing obstacles,including walls,spheres,and grains.The lattice Boltzmann method(LBM)combined with automatic differentiation(AD)(AD-LBM)is employed,with the help of the GPU-capable Taichi programming language.A lightweight tape is used to generate gradients for the entire LBM simulation,enabling end-to-end backpropagation.Our AD-LBM approach accurately estimates the boundary conditions for complex flow paths in porous media,leading to observed steady-state velocity fields and deriving macro-scale permeability and fluid viscosity.The method demonstrates significant advantages in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency,making it a powerful tool for solving inverse fluid flow problems in various applications.

A stable implicit nodal integration-based particle finite element method(N-PFEM)for modelling saturated soil dynamics

In this study,we present a novel nodal integration-based particle finite element method(N-PFEM)designed for the dynamic analysis of saturated soils.Our approach incorporates the nodal integration technique into a generalised Hellinger-Reissner(HR)variational principle,creating an implicit PFEM formulation.To mitigate the volumetric locking issue in low-order elements,we employ a node-based strain smoothing technique.By discretising field variables at the centre of smoothing cells,we achieve nodal integration over cells,eliminating the need for sophisticated mapping operations after re-meshing in the PFEM.We express the discretised governing equations as a min-max optimisation problem,which is further reformulated as a standard second-order cone programming(SOCP)problem.Stresses,pore water pressure,and displacements are simultaneously determined using the advanced primal-dual interior point method.Consequently,our numerical model offers improved accuracy for stresses and pore water pressure compared to the displacement-based PFEM formulation.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the N-PFEM efficiently captures both transient and long-term hydro-mechanical behaviour of saturated soils with high accuracy,obviating the need for stabilisation or regularisation techniques commonly employed in other nodal integration-based PFEM approaches.This work holds significant implications for the development of robust and accurate numerical tools for studying saturated soil dynamics.

Cascading multi-segment rupture process of the 2023 Turkish earthquake doublet on a complex fault system revealed by teleseismic P wave back projection method

In this study,the vertical components of broadband teleseismic P wave data recorded by China Earthquake Network are used to image the rupture processes of the February 6th,2023 Turkish earthquake doublet via back projection analysis.Data in two frequency bands(0.5-2 Hz and 1-3 Hz)are used in the imaging processes.The results show that the rupture of the first event extends about 200 km to the northeast and about 150 km to the southwest,lasting~90 s in total.The southwestern rupture is triggered by the northeastern rupture,demonstrating a sequential bidirectional unilateral rupture pattern.The rupture of the second event extends approximately 80 km in both northeast and west directions,lasting~35 s in total and demonstrates a typical bilateral rupture feature.The cascading ruptures on both sides also reflect the occurrence of selective rupture behaviors on bifurcated faults.In addition,we observe super-shear ruptures on certain fault sections with relatively straight fault structures and sparse aftershocks.

Hybrid Strategy of Partitioned and Monolithic Methods for Solving Strongly Coupled Analysis of Inverse and Direct Piezoelectric and Circuit Coupling

The inverse and direct piezoelectric and circuit coupling are widely observed in advanced electro-mechanical systems such as piezoelectric energy harvesters.Existing strongly coupled analysis methods based on direct numerical modeling for this phenomenon can be classified into partitioned or monolithic formulations.Each formulation has its advantages and disadvantages,and the choice depends on the characteristics of each coupled problem.This study proposes a new option:a coupled analysis strategy that combines the best features of the existing formulations,namely,the hybrid partitioned-monolithic method.The analysis of inverse piezoelectricity and the monolithic analysis of direct piezoelectric and circuit interaction are strongly coupled using a partitioned iterative hierarchical algorithm.In a typical benchmark problem of a piezoelectric energy harvester,this research compares the results from the proposed method to those from the conventional strongly coupled partitioned iterative method,discussing the accuracy,stability,and computational cost.The proposed hybrid concept is effective for coupled multi-physics problems,including various coupling conditions.

A smoothed assumed enhanced strain method for frictional contact with constant strain elements

This paper presents a finite element framework for imposing frictional contact conditions on embedded fracture faces,implemented by the constant-strain assumed enhanced strain(AES)method,where penalty method is used to impose both non-penetration constraint and Coulomb’s law of friction.The proposed constant-strain AES method for modeling embedded frictional contact can be cast into an integration algorithm similar to those used in the classical plasticity theory,where displacement jump is calculated from the local traction equilibrium at Gauss point,so the method does not introduce any additional global degrees of freedom.Moreover,constant-strain elements are often desirable in practice because they can be easily created automatically for large-scale engineering applications with complicated geometries.As encountered in other enriched finite element methods for frictional contact,the problem of normal contact pressure oscillations is also observed in the constant-strain AES method.Therefore,we developed a strain-smoothing procedure to effectively mitigate the oscillations.We investigated and verified the proposed AES framework through several numerical examples,and illustrated the capability of this method in solving challenging nonlinear frictional contact problems.

Monte Carlo method for evaluation of surface emission rate measurement uncertainty

The aim of this study is to evaluate the uncertainty of 2πα and 2πβ surface emission rates using the windowless multiwire proportional counter method.This study used the Monte Carlo method (MCM) to validate the conventional Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) method.A dead time measurement model for the two-source method was established based on the characteristics of a single-channel measurement system,and the voltage threshold correction factor measurement function was indirectly obtained by fitting the threshold correction curve.The uncertainty in the surface emission rate was calculated using the GUM method and the law of propagation of uncertainty.The MCM provided clear definitions for each input quantity and its uncertainty distribution,and the simulation training was realized with a complete and complex mathematical model.The results of the surface emission rate uncertainty evaluation for four radioactive plane sources using both methods showed the uncertainty’s consistency E_(n)<0.070 for the comparison of each source,and the uncertainty results of the GUM were all lower than those of the MCM.However,the MCM has a more objective evaluation process and can serve as a validation tool for GUM results.