The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Ex...The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature v5 (ERSSTv5) climate model. The M-band discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) are utilized to capture multi-scale temporal and spatial features effectively. Long-short term memory (LSTM) autoencoders are also used to capture significant spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data. Deep learning techniques such as the convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used with non-image and image time series data. We also employ parallel computing in a various support vector regression (SVR) approximators to enhance accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that this hybrid model effectively identifies key precursors and patterns associated with El Niño events, surpassing traditional forecasting methods. Results of the hybrid model produce a correlation of 0.93 in 4-month lagged forecasting of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)—indicative of high success rate of the model. Future work will focus on evaluating the model’s performance using additional reanalysis datasets and other methods of deep learning to further refine its robustness and applicability. We propose wavelet-based deep learning models which have potential to shine a light on achieving United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’s goal 13: “Climate Action”, as an innovation with potential in improving time series image forecasting in all fields.展开更多
Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production is a major economic activity in most regional and rural areas in the Southern Plains, a semi-arid region of the United States. This region is vulnerable to drought and is projec...Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production is a major economic activity in most regional and rural areas in the Southern Plains, a semi-arid region of the United States. This region is vulnerable to drought and is projected to experience a drier climate in the future. Since the interannual variability in climate in this region is linked to an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon, called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), droughts in this region may be associated with ENSO. Droughts that occur during the critical growth phases of wheat can be extremely costly. However, the losses due to an impending drought can be minimized through mitigation measures if it is predicted in advance. Predicting the yield loss from an imminent drought is crucial for stakeholders. One of the reliable ways for such prediction is using a plant physiology-based agricultural drought index, such as Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID). This study developed ENSO phase-specific, ARID-based models for predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat in this region by accounting for its phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought. The reasonable values of the drought sensitivity coefficients of the yield model for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral) indicated that the yield models reflected reasonably well the phenomena of water stress decreasing the winter wheat yields in this region during different ENSO phases. The values of various goodness-of-fit measures used, including the Nash-Sutcliffe Index (0.54 to 0.67), the Willmott Index (0.82 to 0.89), and the percentage error (20 to 26), indicated that the yield models performed fairly well at predicting the ENSO phase-specific loss of wheat yields from drought. This yield model may be useful for predicting yield loss from drought and scheduling irrigation allocation based on the phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought as impacted by ENSO.展开更多
This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper...This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.展开更多
The interdiffusion coefficients in Al_(0.2)CoCrFeNi,CoCrCu_(0.2)FeNi,and CoCrFeMn_(0.2)Ni high-entropy alloys were efficiently determined by combining diffusion couple experiments and high-throughput determination of ...The interdiffusion coefficients in Al_(0.2)CoCrFeNi,CoCrCu_(0.2)FeNi,and CoCrFeMn_(0.2)Ni high-entropy alloys were efficiently determined by combining diffusion couple experiments and high-throughput determination of interdiffusion coefficients(HitDIC)software at 1273−1373 K.The results show that the addition of Al,Cu,and Mn to CoCrFeNi high-entropy alloys promotes the diffusion of Co,Cr,and Fe atoms.The comparison of tracer diffusion coefficients indicates that there is no sluggish diffusion in tracer diffusion on the thermodynamic temperature scale for the present Al_(0.2)CoCrFeNi,CoCrCu_(0.2)FeNi,and CoCrFeMn_(0.2)Ni high-entropy alloys.The linear relationship between diffusion entropy and activation energy reveals that the diffusion process of atoms is unaffected by an increase in the number of components as long as the crystal structure remains unchanged.展开更多
Developing a cost-effective and environmentally friendly process for the production of valuable chemicals from abundant herbal biomass receives great attentions in recent years.Herein,taking advantage of the“lignin f...Developing a cost-effective and environmentally friendly process for the production of valuable chemicals from abundant herbal biomass receives great attentions in recent years.Herein,taking advantage of the“lignin first”strategy,corn straw is converted to valuable chemicals including lignin monomers,furfural and 5-methoxymethylfurfural via a two steps process.The key of this research lies in the development of a green and low-cost catalytic process utilizing magnetic Raney Ni catalyst and high boiling point ethylene glycol.The utilization of neat ethylene glycol as the sole slovent under atmospheric conditions obviates the need for additional additives,thereby facilitating the entire process to be conducted in glass flasks and rendering it highly convenient for scaling up.In the initial step,depolymerization of corn straw lignin resulted in a monomer yield of 18.1 wt%.Subsequently,in a dimethyl carbonate system,the carbohydrate component underwent complete conversion in a one-pot process,yielding furfural and 5-methoxymethylfurfural as the primary products with an impressive yield of 47.7%.展开更多
Multistage heat treatment involving quenching(Q),lamellarizing(L),and tempering(T)is applied to marine 10Ni5CrMoV steel.The microstructure and mechanical properties were studied by multiscale characterizations,and the...Multistage heat treatment involving quenching(Q),lamellarizing(L),and tempering(T)is applied to marine 10Ni5CrMoV steel.The microstructure and mechanical properties were studied by multiscale characterizations,and the kinetics of reverse austenite transformation,strain hardening behavior,and toughening mechanism were further investigated.The lamellarized specimens possess low yield strength but high toughness,especially cryogenic toughness.Lamellarization leads to the development of film-like reversed austenite at the martensite block and lath boundaries,refining the martensite structure and lowering the equivalent grain size.Kinetic analysis of austenite reversion based on the JMAK model shows that the isothermal transformation is dominated by the growth of reversed austenite,and the maximum transformation of reversed austenite is reached at the peak temperature(750℃).The strain hardening behavior based on the modified Crussard-Jaoul analysis indicates that the reversed austenite obtained from lamellarization reduces the proportion of martensite,significantly hindering crack propagation via martensitic transformation during the deformation.As a consequence,the QLT specimens exhibit high machinability and low yield strength.Compared with the QT specimen,the ductile-brittle transition temperature of the QLT specimens decreases from-116 to-130℃due to the low equivalent grain size and reversed austenite,which increases the cleavage force required for crack propagation and absorbs the energy of external load,respectively.This work provides an idea to improve the cryogenic toughness of marine 10Ni5CrMoV steel and lays a theoretical foundation for its industrial application and comprehensive performance improvement.展开更多
The Jin-Neelin model for the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO for short) is considered for which the authors establish existence and uniqueness of global solutions in time over an unbounded channel domain. The resu...The Jin-Neelin model for the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO for short) is considered for which the authors establish existence and uniqueness of global solutions in time over an unbounded channel domain. The result is proved for initial data and forcing that are sufficiently small. The smallness conditions involve in particular key physical parameters of the model such as those that control the travel time of the equatorial waves and the strength of feedback due to vertical-shear currents and upwelling; central mechanisms in ENSO dynamics.From the mathematical view point, the system appears as the coupling of a linear shallow water system and a nonlinear heat equation. Because of the very different nature of the two components of the system, the authors find it convenient to prove the existence of solution by semi-discretization in time and utilization of a fractional step scheme. The main idea consists of handling the coupling between the oceanic and temperature components by dividing the time interval into small sub-intervals of length k and on each sub-interval to solve successively the oceanic component, using the temperature T calculated on the previous sub-interval, to then solve the sea-surface temperature(SST for short) equation on the current sub-interval. The passage to the limit as k tends to zero is ensured via a priori estimates derived under the aforementioned smallness conditions.展开更多
A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropica...A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.展开更多
文摘The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature v5 (ERSSTv5) climate model. The M-band discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) are utilized to capture multi-scale temporal and spatial features effectively. Long-short term memory (LSTM) autoencoders are also used to capture significant spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data. Deep learning techniques such as the convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used with non-image and image time series data. We also employ parallel computing in a various support vector regression (SVR) approximators to enhance accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that this hybrid model effectively identifies key precursors and patterns associated with El Niño events, surpassing traditional forecasting methods. Results of the hybrid model produce a correlation of 0.93 in 4-month lagged forecasting of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)—indicative of high success rate of the model. Future work will focus on evaluating the model’s performance using additional reanalysis datasets and other methods of deep learning to further refine its robustness and applicability. We propose wavelet-based deep learning models which have potential to shine a light on achieving United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’s goal 13: “Climate Action”, as an innovation with potential in improving time series image forecasting in all fields.
文摘Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production is a major economic activity in most regional and rural areas in the Southern Plains, a semi-arid region of the United States. This region is vulnerable to drought and is projected to experience a drier climate in the future. Since the interannual variability in climate in this region is linked to an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon, called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), droughts in this region may be associated with ENSO. Droughts that occur during the critical growth phases of wheat can be extremely costly. However, the losses due to an impending drought can be minimized through mitigation measures if it is predicted in advance. Predicting the yield loss from an imminent drought is crucial for stakeholders. One of the reliable ways for such prediction is using a plant physiology-based agricultural drought index, such as Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID). This study developed ENSO phase-specific, ARID-based models for predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat in this region by accounting for its phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought. The reasonable values of the drought sensitivity coefficients of the yield model for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral) indicated that the yield models reflected reasonably well the phenomena of water stress decreasing the winter wheat yields in this region during different ENSO phases. The values of various goodness-of-fit measures used, including the Nash-Sutcliffe Index (0.54 to 0.67), the Willmott Index (0.82 to 0.89), and the percentage error (20 to 26), indicated that the yield models performed fairly well at predicting the ENSO phase-specific loss of wheat yields from drought. This yield model may be useful for predicting yield loss from drought and scheduling irrigation allocation based on the phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought as impacted by ENSO.
文摘This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52374372)the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China(No.23KJB430042)+3 种基金the Jiangsu Province Large Scientific Instruments Open Sharing Autonomous Research Filing Project,China(No.TC2023A037)the Yangzhou City−Yangzhou University Cooperation Foundation,China(No.YZ2022183)High-end Talent Support Program of Yangzhou University,China,Qinglan Project of Yangzhou University,ChinaLvyangjinfeng Talent program of Yangzhou,China.
文摘The interdiffusion coefficients in Al_(0.2)CoCrFeNi,CoCrCu_(0.2)FeNi,and CoCrFeMn_(0.2)Ni high-entropy alloys were efficiently determined by combining diffusion couple experiments and high-throughput determination of interdiffusion coefficients(HitDIC)software at 1273−1373 K.The results show that the addition of Al,Cu,and Mn to CoCrFeNi high-entropy alloys promotes the diffusion of Co,Cr,and Fe atoms.The comparison of tracer diffusion coefficients indicates that there is no sluggish diffusion in tracer diffusion on the thermodynamic temperature scale for the present Al_(0.2)CoCrFeNi,CoCrCu_(0.2)FeNi,and CoCrFeMn_(0.2)Ni high-entropy alloys.The linear relationship between diffusion entropy and activation energy reveals that the diffusion process of atoms is unaffected by an increase in the number of components as long as the crystal structure remains unchanged.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(QNTD202302)National Natural Science Foundation of China(22378024)the Foreign expert program(G2022109001L).
文摘Developing a cost-effective and environmentally friendly process for the production of valuable chemicals from abundant herbal biomass receives great attentions in recent years.Herein,taking advantage of the“lignin first”strategy,corn straw is converted to valuable chemicals including lignin monomers,furfural and 5-methoxymethylfurfural via a two steps process.The key of this research lies in the development of a green and low-cost catalytic process utilizing magnetic Raney Ni catalyst and high boiling point ethylene glycol.The utilization of neat ethylene glycol as the sole slovent under atmospheric conditions obviates the need for additional additives,thereby facilitating the entire process to be conducted in glass flasks and rendering it highly convenient for scaling up.In the initial step,depolymerization of corn straw lignin resulted in a monomer yield of 18.1 wt%.Subsequently,in a dimethyl carbonate system,the carbohydrate component underwent complete conversion in a one-pot process,yielding furfural and 5-methoxymethylfurfural as the primary products with an impressive yield of 47.7%.
基金financially supported by the National Key K&D Program of China(No.2023YFE0200300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52174303and 51874084)the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities(No.B21001)。
文摘Multistage heat treatment involving quenching(Q),lamellarizing(L),and tempering(T)is applied to marine 10Ni5CrMoV steel.The microstructure and mechanical properties were studied by multiscale characterizations,and the kinetics of reverse austenite transformation,strain hardening behavior,and toughening mechanism were further investigated.The lamellarized specimens possess low yield strength but high toughness,especially cryogenic toughness.Lamellarization leads to the development of film-like reversed austenite at the martensite block and lath boundaries,refining the martensite structure and lowering the equivalent grain size.Kinetic analysis of austenite reversion based on the JMAK model shows that the isothermal transformation is dominated by the growth of reversed austenite,and the maximum transformation of reversed austenite is reached at the peak temperature(750℃).The strain hardening behavior based on the modified Crussard-Jaoul analysis indicates that the reversed austenite obtained from lamellarization reduces the proportion of martensite,significantly hindering crack propagation via martensitic transformation during the deformation.As a consequence,the QLT specimens exhibit high machinability and low yield strength.Compared with the QT specimen,the ductile-brittle transition temperature of the QLT specimens decreases from-116 to-130℃due to the low equivalent grain size and reversed austenite,which increases the cleavage force required for crack propagation and absorbs the energy of external load,respectively.This work provides an idea to improve the cryogenic toughness of marine 10Ni5CrMoV steel and lays a theoretical foundation for its industrial application and comprehensive performance improvement.
基金supported by the Office of Naval Research Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative(No.N00014-16-1-2073)the National Science Foundation(Nos.OCE-1658357,DMS-1616981,DMS-1206438,DMS-1510249)the Research Fund of Indiana University
文摘The Jin-Neelin model for the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO for short) is considered for which the authors establish existence and uniqueness of global solutions in time over an unbounded channel domain. The result is proved for initial data and forcing that are sufficiently small. The smallness conditions involve in particular key physical parameters of the model such as those that control the travel time of the equatorial waves and the strength of feedback due to vertical-shear currents and upwelling; central mechanisms in ENSO dynamics.From the mathematical view point, the system appears as the coupling of a linear shallow water system and a nonlinear heat equation. Because of the very different nature of the two components of the system, the authors find it convenient to prove the existence of solution by semi-discretization in time and utilization of a fractional step scheme. The main idea consists of handling the coupling between the oceanic and temperature components by dividing the time interval into small sub-intervals of length k and on each sub-interval to solve successively the oceanic component, using the temperature T calculated on the previous sub-interval, to then solve the sea-surface temperature(SST for short) equation on the current sub-interval. The passage to the limit as k tends to zero is ensured via a priori estimates derived under the aforementioned smallness conditions.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42030410)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202403)supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.
