A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific.Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020,four distinct circulation patterns are identified:the monsoon trough(MT)pattern,accounting for 40.3%of occurrences,the confluence zone(CON)pattern at 26.2%,the easterly wave(EW)pattern at 17.8%,and the monsoon gyre(MG)pattern at 15.7%.The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough,with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks.The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high,and the monsoon trough,with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge.The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows,with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train.MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows.A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity,while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns.The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy,acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.

Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.

The Catch Distribution of Ommastrephes batramii in Squid Jigging Fishery and the Relationship between Fishing Ground and SST in the North Pacific Ocean in 2004

Neon flying squid Ommastrephes batramii is widely distributed in the North Pacific Ocean, which has become the main fishing species for Chinese squid jigging fleets since 1993. Many authors have made the studies on the fields of fishing ground and its environment conditions. However, the squid catch per fishing vessel attained the highest level of about 550 t in 2004. In this paper, the catch and its distribution in 2004 would be compared with the previous year. Based on the catch data from Chinese squid jigging vessels and sea surface temperature with the format of 1 °latitude by 1 °longitude from May to November in 2004, the distribution maps were drawn by Marine explorer 4.0. The results show that the production in the east waters to 160°E was low during May and July. During October and November, the production in the waters from 150°E to 160°E was relatively higher, which occupied 62.5 percent of the total catch. During November, the production in the west waters to 150°E was also low. The highest CPUE area located in the west waters to 150°E, the next was the area from 150°E to 160°E and the lowest CPUE area located in the east waters to 160°E. The SST in the fishing ground seems to change seasonally. The suitable SST for each month is as follows： 12-14 ℃ in May, 15 ℃ - 16 ℃ in June, 14 ℃ - 16 ℃ in July, 18 ℃ - 19 ℃ in August, 16 ℃ -17 ℃ in September, 15 ℃- 16 ℃ in October and 12 ℃ - 13 ℃ in November. The result of K-S test shows that the above monthly suitable SST is considered as the indicator of looking for the main fishing ground.

ENSO-Dependent and ENSO-Independent Variability over the Mid-Latitude North Pacific: Observation and Air-Sea Coupled Model Simulation

During El Niño events, the warm anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are seen to occur in conjunction with prominent warm anomalies in the North Pacific SSTs off the west coast of North America as well as with cold anomalies in the central North Pacific. This kind of North Pacific response to ENSO is examined in observational data and IPSL air-sea coupled model simulations. Analyses based on observational data and the model output data both support the hypothesis of an “atmospheric bridge concept”, i.e., the atmospheric response to ENSO, in turn, forces the extra-tropical SST anomalies associated with the El Ninno event, thereby serving as a bridge between the tropical and extra-tropical Pacific. Regarding the mechanism responsible for this, the ocean dynamical response to the atmospheric forcing is suggested to be active, while the contribution of latent heat flux is also significant. The role of solar radiation, longwave radiation, and sensible heat flux are of minor importance however, as indicated in the model. Further analysis shows that the North Pacific mode, which is linearly independent of ENSO, resembles the El Niño-type SST mode in the northern Pacific, i.e. both take the pattern of a zonally-oriented dipole in the subtropical Pacific, though differ slightly in the location of the anomaly center. The coupling between the North Pacific mode and the atmosphere is found to be mainly via air-sea heat flux exchange in the model. Both solar radiation and longwave radiation play important roles, while the contribution of latent heat flux is nearly negligible.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific:I.Water mass distribution

With high-resolution conductivity-temperature-depth （CTD） observations conducted in Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides a detailed quasi-synoptic description of the North Pacific Tropic Water （NPTW）, North Pacific Intermediate Water （NPIW） and Antarctic Intermediate Water （AAIW） in the western North Pacific. Some novel features are found. NPTW enters the western ocean with highest-salinity core off shore at 15°-18°N, and then splits to flow northward and southward along the western boundary. Its salinity decreases and density increases outside the core region. NPIW spreads westward north of 15°N with lowest salinity off shore at 21°N, but mainly hugs the Mindanao coast south of 12°N. It shoals and thins toward the south, with salinity increasing and density decreasing. AAIW extends to higher latitude off shore than that in shore, and it is traced as a salinity minimum to only 10°N at 130°E. Most of the South Pacific waters turn northeastward rather than directly flow northward upon reaching to the Mindanao coast, indicating the eastward shift of the Mindanao Undercurrent （MUC）.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.

A Review of Interaction Between Neon Flying Squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) and Oceanographic Variability in the North Pacific Ocean

The neon flying squid （Ommastrephes bartramii） is a short-lived opporttmistic species widely distributed in subtropical and temperate waters in the North Pacific Ocean. The life cycle of O. bartramii from planktonic eggs to nektonic adults is closely linked to oceanographic conditions. The fluctuations in O. bartramii abundance and distribution tend to increase and widen continu- ously due to the heavy influences of ocean-climate events on various spatio-temporal scales. In this study, we reviewed the interac- tion between O. bartramii and oceanography variability in the North Pacific with respect to large-scale climatic-oceanic phenomena including E1 Nifio, La Nifia, Kuroshio, Oyashio and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, as well as regional environmental variables such as sea surface temperature （SST）, sea surface height （SSH）, sea surface salinity （SSS）, chlorophyll-a （Chl-a） concentration, and plankton density. The population dynamics of O. bartramii is mediated mainly by meso- and large-scale climatic-oceanic events （e.g., Kuroshio and Oyashio Currents） rather than other local environmental conditions （e.g., SST and Chl-a concentration）, because all of the oceanographic influences are imposed on the context of large-scale climate changes （e.g., PDO）. An unstructured-grid finite- volume coastal ocean model coupled with an individual-based model is proposed to simulate relevant physical-biological oceano- graphic processes for identifying ocean-climate influence and predicting O. bartramii distribution and abundance in the North Pacific. Future research needs to be focused on improving the knowledge about early life history of O. bartramii and evaluating the relation- ship between marine physical environment and two separate passive drifting life stages of O. bartramii including free-floating eggs and planktonic paralarvae.

Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific

Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone （TC） formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on the peak-season （July-September） TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950-2007. It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevailing tracks on the interannual timescale. In the El Nino years, the significant enhancement of TC activity primarily occurs south of 20°N, especially east of 130°E. TCs that take the northwestward prevailing track and affect East Asia, including Taiwan Island, the Chinese mainland, Korea, and Japan, tend to move more westward in the El Nino years, while taking a more northward track in the La Nina years. Numerical simulations confirm that the ENSO-related changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations can have a considerable influence on TC prevailing tracks.

Atmospheric Anomalies Related to Interdecadal Variability of SST in the North Pacific

Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.

Modeling a habitat suitability index for the eastern fall cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the central North Pacific Ocean

The eastern fall cohort of the neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, has been commercially exploited by the Chinese squid jigging fleet in the central North Pacific Ocean since the late 1990s. To understand and identify their optimal habitat, we have developed a habitat suitability index （HSI） model using two potential important environmental variables -- sea surface temperature （SST） and sea surface height anomaly （SSHA） -- and fishery data from the main fishing ground （165°-180°E） during June and July of 1999-2003. A geometric mean model （GMM）, minimum model （MM） and arithmetic weighted model （AWM） with different weights were compared and the best HSI model was selected using Akaike＇s information criterion （AIC）. The performance of the developed HSI model was evaluated using fishery data for 2004. This study suggests that the highest catch per unit effort （CPUE） and fishing effort are closely related to SST and SSHA. The best SST- and SSHA-based suitability index （SI） regression models were SISST-based = 0.7SIeffort-SST ＋ 0.3 SICPUE-SST, and SISSHA-based =0.5Sleffort-SSHA ＋ 0.5SICPUE-SSHA, respectively, showing that fishing effort is more important than CPUE in the estimation of SI. The best HSI model was the AWM, defined as HSI=0.3SISSHA-based＋ 0.7SISSHA-based, indicating that SSHA is more important than SST in estimating the HSI of squid. In 2004, monthly HSI values greater than 0.6 coincided with the distribution of productive fishing ground and high CPUE in June and July, suggesting that the models perform well. The proposed model provides an important tool in our efforts to develop forecasting capacity of squid spatial dynamics.

The Role of the Kuroshio in the Winter North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction: Comparison of a Coupled Model and Observations

A comparative study between the output of the Flexible Global Climate Model Version 1.0 （FGCM- 1.0） and the observations is performed. At 500 hPa, the geopotential height of FGCM is similar to the observations, but in the North Pacific the model gives lower values, and the differences are most significant over the northern boundary of the Pacific. In a net heat flux comparison, the spatial patterns of the two are similar in winter, but more heat loss appears to the east of Japan in FGCM than in COADS. On the interannual timescale, strong （weak） Kuroshio transports to the east of Taiwan lead the increasing （decreasing） net heat flux, which is centered over the Kuroshio Extension region, by 1-2 months, with low （high） pressure anomaly responses appearing at 500 hPa over the North Pacific （north of 25°N） in winter. The northward heat transport of the Kuroshio is one of the important heat sources to support the warming of the atmosphere by the ocean and the formation of the low pressure anomaly at 500 hPa over the North Pacific in winter.

The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific （WNP） and the South China Sea （SCS） from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being - 0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m/s over the WNP and 4.6 m/s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii （R15,R16） of the 15.4 m/s winds them and the 25.7 m/s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.

The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Subtropical Western North Pacific during the Summer of 1998

The features of 30-60-day convection oscillations over the subtropical western North Pacific （WNP） were investigated, along with the degree of tropical-subtropical linkage between the oscillations over the WNP during summer 1998. It was found that 30-60-day oscillations were extremely strong in that summer over both the subtropical and tro]~ical WNP, providing a unique opportunity to study the behavior of subtropical oscillations and their relationship to tropical oscillations. Further analyses indicated that 30-60-day oscillations propagate westwards over the subtropical WNP and reach eastern China. In addition, 30-60-day oscillations in the subtropics are affected by those over the South China Sea （SCS） and tropical WNP through two mechanisms： （1） direct propagation from the tropics into the subtropics; and （2） a seesaw pattern between the tropics and subtropics, with the latter being predominant.

Regime Shifts in the North Pacific Simulated by a COADS-driven Isopycnal Model

The Miami Isopycnal Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) is adopted to simulate the intevdecadal variability in the Pacific Ocean with most emphasis on regime shifts in the North Pacific. The computational domain covers 60°N to 40°S with an enclosed boundary condition for momentum flux, whereas there are thermohalirie fluxes across the southern end as a restoring term. In addition, sea surface salinity of the model relaxes to the climatological season cycle, which results in climatological fresh water fluxes. Surface forcing functions from January 1945 through December 1998 are derived from the Comprehensive Ocean and Atmospheric Data Set (COADS). Such a numerical experiment reproduces the observed evolution of the interdecadal variability in the heat content over the upper 400-m layer by a two-year lag. Subduction that occurs at the ventilated thermocline in the central North Pacific is also been simulated and the subducted signals propagate from 35°N to 25°N, taking about 8 to 10 years, in agreement with the expendable Bathy Thermograph observation over recent decades. Interdecadal signals take a southwest-ward and downward path rather than westward propagation, meaning they are less associated with the baroclinic planetary waves. During travel, the signals appear to conserve potential vorticity. Therefore, the ventilated thermocline and related subduction are probably the fundamental physics for interdecadal variability in the mid-latitude subtropics of the North Pacific.

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.

Eddy generation and evolution in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent(NPSC) zone

The seasonal generation and evolution of eddies in the region of the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent remain poorly understood due to the scarcity of available data.We used TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data from 1992 to 2007 to study the eddy field in this zone.We found that velocity shear between this region and the neighboring North Equatorial Current contributes greatly to the eddy generation.Furthermore,the eddy kinetic energy level(EKE) shows an annual cycle,maximum in April/May and minimum in December/January.Analyses of the temporal and spatial distributions of the eddy field revealed clearly that the velocity shear closely related to baroclinic instability processes.The eddy field seems to be more zonal than meridional,and the energy containing length scale shows a surprising lag of 2-3 months in comparison with the 1-D and 2-D EKE level.A similar phenomenon is observed in individual eddies in this zone.The results show that in this eddy field band,the velocity shear may drive the EKE level change so that the eddy field takes another 2-3 months to grow and interact to reach a relatively stable state.This explains the seasonal evolution of identifiable eddies.

A primary study of the correlation between the net air-sea heat flux and the interannual variation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track and intensity

A singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis is carried out to reveal the relationship between the interannual variation of track and intensity of the western North Pacific tropical cyclones （WNPTCs） in the tropical cyclone （TC） active season （July–November） and the global net air-sea heat flux （Q net ） in the preceding season （April–June）. For this purpose, a tropical cyclone track and intensity function （TIF） is defined by a combination of accumulated cyclone energy （ACE） index and a cyclone track density function. The SVD analysis reveals that the first mode is responsible for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the tropical central Pacific and the increased activity of western North Pacific （WNP） TIF, the second mode for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the North Indian Ocean and the northeastward track shift of WNPTCs and the third mode for the negative correlation between the upward heat flux in mid-latitude central Pacific and the northwest displacement of the WNP TC-active center. This suggests that Q net anomalies in some key regions have a substantial remote impact on the WNP TC activity.

Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific II:Circulation

Using the data of conductivity-temperature-depth （CTD） intensive observations conducted during Oct-Nov. 2005, this study provides the first three-dimension quasi-synoptic description of the circulation in the western North Pacific. Several novel phenomena are revealed, especially in the deep ocean where earlier observations were very sparse. During the observations, the North Equatorial Current （NEC） splits at about 12°N near the sea surface. This bifurcation shifts northward with depth, reaching about 20°N at 1 000 m, and then remains nearly unchanged to as deep as 2 000 m. The Luzon Undercurrent （LUC）, emerging below the Kuroshio from about 21°N, intensifies southward, with its upper boundary surfacing around 12°N. From there, part of the LUC separates from the coast, while the rest continues southward to join the Mindanao Current （MC）. The MC extends to 2 000 m near the coast, and appears to be closely related to the subsurface cyclonic eddies which overlap low-salinity water from the North Pacific. The Mindanao Undercurrent （MUC）, carrying waters from the South Pacific, shifts eastward upon approaching the Mindanao coast and eventually becomes part of the eastward undercurrent between 10°N and 12°N at 130°E. In the upper 2 000 dbar, the total westward transport across 130°E between 7.5°N and 18°N reaches 65.4 Sv （1 Sv = 10-6 m3s^-1）, the northward transport across 18°N from Luzon coast to 130°E is up to 35.0 Sv, and the southward transport across 7.5°N from Mindanao coast to 130°E is 27.9 Sv.