A 38-Year Climatology of Explosive Cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere

Explosive cyclones(ECs)over two basins in the Northern Hemisphere(20°-90°N)from January 1979 to December2016 are investigated using ERA-Interim and Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OISST)data.The classical definition of an EC is modified considering not only the rapid drop of the central sea level pressure of the cyclone,but also the strong wind speed at the height of 10 m in which maximum wind speeds greater than 17.2 m s^-1are included.According to the locations of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific,the whole Northern Hemisphere is divided into the"A region"(20°-90°N,90°W-90°E)and"P region"(20°-90°N,90°E-90°W).Over both the A and P regions,the climatological features of ECs,such as their spatial distribution,intensity,seasonal variation,interannual variation,and moving tracks,are documented.

Linkage Between the Northeast Mongolian Precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation

The long-term relationship between the tree-ring-reconstructed annual precipitation in northeastern Mongolia （PRM） and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation （NHZC）, defined as the normalized zonal mean sea-level pressure at 60°N in May-June-July, is examined in this study. A significant correlation coefficient （0.31） was found between the NHZC indices and PRM based on the dataset for the period of 1872-1995. The mechanisms responsible for the relationship are discussed through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability associated with NHZC. It follows that NHZC-related atmospheric circulation variability provides an anomalous southeast flow from the ocean to Northeast Mongolia （northwest flow from Northeast Mongolia to the ocean） in the middle and low troposphere in positive （negative） phase of NHZC, resulting in more （less） water vapor transport to the target region and more （less） precipitation in Northeast Mongolia.

A Preliminary Study on the Relationship Between Arctic Oscillation and Daily SLP Variance in the Northern Hemisphere During Wintertime

In the present study, the authors investigated the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the high-frequency variability of daily sea level pressures in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (November through March), using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the time period of 1948/49-2000/01. High-frequency signals are defined as those with timescales shorter than three weeks and measured in terms of variance, for each winter for each grid. The correlations between monthly mean AO index and high-frequency variance are conducted. A predominant feature is that several regional centers with high correlation show up in the middle to high latitudes. Significant areas include mid- to high-latitude Asia centered at Siberia, northern Europe and the middle-latitude North Atlantic east of northern Africa. Their strong correlations can also be confirmed by the singular value decomposition analysis of covariance between mean SLP and high-frequency variance. This indicates that the relationship of AO with daily Sea Level Pressure (SLP) is confined to some specific regions in association with the inherent atmospheric dynamics. In middle-latitude Asia, there is a significant (at the 95% level) trend of variance of-2.26% (10 yr)-1. Another region that displays a strong trend is the northwestern Pacific with a significant rate of change of 0.80% (10 yr)-1. If the winter of 1948/49, an apparent outlier, is excluded, a steady linear trend of +1.51% (10 yr)-1 shows up in northern Europe. The variance probability density functions (PDFs) are found to change in association with different AO phases. The changes corresponding to high and low AO phases, however, are asymmetric in these regions. Some regions such as northern Europe display much stronger changes in high AO years, whereas some other regions such as Siberia show a stronger connection to low AO conditions. These features are supported by ECMWF reanalysis data. However, the dynamical mechanisms involved in the AO-high frequency SLP variance connection have not been well understood, and this needs further study.

Simulated effect of soil freeze-thaw process on surface hydrologic and thermal fluxes in frozen ground region of the Northern Hemisphere

Soil freeze-thaw process is closely related to surface energy budget,hydrological activity,and terrestrial ecosystems.In this study,two numerical experiments(including and excluding soil freeze-thaw process)were designed to examine the effect of soil freeze-thaw process on surface hydrologic and thermal fluxes in frozen ground region in the Northern Hemisphere based on the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5.Results show that in response to soil freeze-thaw process,the area averaged soil temperature in the shallow layer(0.0175−0.0451 m)decreases by 0.35℃in the TP(Tibetan Plateau),0.69℃in CES(Central and Eastern Siberia),and 0.6℃in NA(North America)during summer,and increases by 1.93℃in the TP,2.28℃in CES and 1.61℃in NA during winter,respectively.Meanwhile,in response to soil freeze-thaw process,the area averaged soil liquid water content increases in summer and decrease in winter.For surface heat flux components,the ground heat flux is most significantly affected by the freeze-thaw process in both summer and winter,followed by sensible heat flux and latent heat flux in summer.In the TP area,the ground heat flux increases by 2.82 W/m2(28.5%)in summer and decreases by 3.63 W/m2(40%)in winter.Meanwhile,in CES,the ground heat flux increases by 1.89 W/m2(11.3%)in summer and decreases by 1.41 W/m2(18.6%)in winter.The heat fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau are more susceptible to the freeze-thaw process compared with the high-latitude frozen soil regions.Soil freeze-thaw process can induce significant warming in the Tibetan Plateau in winter.Also,this process induces significant cooling in high-latitude regions in summer.The frozen ground can prevent soil liquid water from infiltrating to deep soil layers at the beginning of thawing;however,as the frozen ground thaws continuously,the infiltration of the liquid water increases and the deep soil can store water like a sponge,accompanied by decreasing surface runoff.The influence of the soil freeze-thaw process on surface hydrologic and thermal fluxes varies seasonally and spatially.

Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.

Dynamical Tropopause Variability and Potential Vorticity Streamers in the Northern Hemisphere——A Climatological Analysis

This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity （PV） streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause. A comprehensive overview is provided on where （zonally） and when （seasonally） short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia. The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific.

The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .

Climate change comparison between Arctic and other areas in the Northern Hemisphere since the last Interstade

Based on temperature reconstruction and proxy data from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere, this paper focused on comparing the cycles of temperature variations between the Arctic and other areas, including Atlantic, Europe, China, Asia, Pacific, Indian Ocean, and America during the transition from the last Interstade to the Last Glacial Maximum, from the Last Glacial Maximum to megathermal period in Holocene and the transition of the Little Ice Age （LIA） by the methods of Singular Spectrum Analysis （SSA） and Maximum Entropy Spectrum （MES）. The results showed that environmental changes in the Arctic are most similar to that in the North American and better similar to Asia, Atlantic and Pacific, the least similar to Indian Ocean and Europe. The 1500-year oscillation of temperature existed both in Arctic and Europe.

Temperate northern hemisphere dominates the global soil CH_(4) sink

Methane(CH_(4)) is the second largest longlived greenhouse gas after the CO_(2), which contributes 20% of global warming forcing. Global aerated soils remove CH_(4) from the troposphere, but the quantification of its magnitude and spatial variability is still of a large uncertainty. This study collected 1240records of the CH_(4) uptake by soils across the globe.Our estimates update the global soil CH_(4) sink to 31.9+/-0.16 Tg CH_(4) a^(-1), 42% higher than the previous inventory-based estimation, with 56% from temperate regions. Also, our dataset revealed that the global drylands dominated the soil CH_(4) sink, which is different from traditional forest-dominated view.During the past four decades, the soil porosity affected by soil moisture controls the variation in the uptake in the tropics, while warming temperatures benefit methanotrophs in temperate and boreal soils,especially the drylands, where the soil porosity is not limiting. Our simulations indicate that the CH_(4) uptake will increase by 11%–31% by the end of the 21st century, much lower than the previous estimations.This study substantially constrains the global soil CH_(4) sink estimates and reveals the warming temperate northern hemisphere is a dominant CH_(4) uptake region in the past and future, while the uptake decreases in tropical soils under increasing precipitation.

ON THE KEY REGIONS OF 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IN WINTER

Variance analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis methods are applied to analyze the variation of circulation at 500 hPa. In winter, there are three regions (180°E – 150°W, 45°N – 60°N, 70°W – 100 °W,45°N – 75°N, 60°E – 100°E, 65°N – 80°N) whose variations are strong. Those regions are the key regions in which atmospheric circulation can change. Those regions are correlated to some teleconnections and can present a part of variations of 500 hPa to some degree. The linear contemporary correlation between those regions and the height at 500 hPa is significant. Those regions can account for 88 % of variations of concurrent height at 500 hPa. Those regions can present and forecast some variations to some degree in March and April. The longer the time interval, the worse the forecast effect will be. The interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and the SST are weak in the western Pacific.

One Possible Mechanism for the Principal Mode of Atmospheric Low-Frequency Variabilityin the Northern Hemisphere Winter

With the specified basic flow in the Northern Hemisphere winter, a study is made of the structure characteristics and mechanism of the principal mode of atmospheric low-frequency variability in terms of a linear barotropic model. Statistical and dynamical analyses of the model results indicate that the mode and the related dominant-forcing excitation zone are featured by evident spatial distribution and that the mechanism responsible for the mode bears fetation to the zonal asymmetry of the basic flow and the associated barotropic energy conversion.

Effect of seasonal snow on the start of growing season of typical vegetation in Northern Hemisphere

Under global warming, seasonal snow takes faster melting rate than before, which greatly changes the hydro-logical cycle. In this study, by targeting three typical seasonal snow-covered land types (i.e., open shrubland,evergreen needleleaf forest and mixed forest) in the Northern Hemisphere, the start of growing season (SGS) hasbeen found obviously advanced in the past years, greatly contributed by the faster melting rate of seasonal snow.It is manifested that significantly positive correlation has been found between SGS and May snow depth for openshrubs, March and April snow depth for evergreen needleleaf forests and March snow depth for mixed forests.However, such close association is not appeared in all the climate conditions of same vegetation. In the future,as the rate of melting snow becomes faster in the high emission of greenhouse gasses than the current situation,continuously advanced SGS will accelerate the change of vegetation distribution in the Northern Hemisphere.These findings offer insights into understanding the effect from seasonal snow on vegetation and promote thesustainable utilization of regional vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere.

Variations of the Atlantic and Pacific Blocking Anticyclones and Their Correlation in the Northern Hemisphere

Blocking is a large-scale, mid-latitude atmospheric anticyclone that splits the westerly into two jets and has a profound effect on local and regional climates. This study examined the seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability of the Atlantic and Pacific blocking anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data between 1958 and 1999. The preferred blocking region during these forty-two years was located over the Atlantic. Most blocking anticyclones over the Atlantic occurred in spring, while most of those over the Pacific occurred in winter. Similar two-to four-year and eleven-year oscillations were found for both the Atlantic and Pacific blocks by using wavelet analysis. The dominant mode for the Pacific blocks is decadal variation, while for the Atlantic blocks the predominant one is interannual variation with a period of about three years. The frequencies of the Pacific and Atlantic blocks varied almost in phase on interannual time scales except during the period of 1965-1977, and frequencies were out of phase on decadal time scale throughout the forty-two years.

Relationship between the Interannual Variations of Total Ozone in the Northern Hemisphere and the QBO of Basic Flow in the Tropical Stratosphere

The harmonic analyses of monthly mean total ozone in the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere for 26 years (1960-1985) are made by using the Fourier expansion. The analysed results show that there is obviously a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the interannual variations of the amplitudes of total ozone. Generally, the amplitudes of wavenumber 1 and 2 during the westerly of the equatorial QBO are larger than those during the easterly. In the early winter, the amplitude of wavenumber 1 during the easterly phase is larger, and in the late winter, it is larger during the westerly phase. These are in good agreement with the observational distributions.

The historical to future linkage of Arctic amplification on extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0.95)between extreme precipitation and Arctic amplification(AA)is found using observations and CMIP5/6 multi-model ensembles.However,CMIP6 models are superior to CMIP5 models in simulating the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and AA.According to 14 optimal CMIP6 models,the maximum latitude of planetary waves and the strength of Northern Hemisphere annular mode(NAM)will increase with increasing AA,contributing to increased extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5,AA is expected to increase by 0.85℃ per decade while the maximum latitude of planetary waves will increase by 2.82°per decade.Additionally,the amplitude of the NAM will increase by 0.21 hPa per decade,contributing to a rise in extreme precipitation of 1.17% per decade for R95pTOT and 0.86% per decade for R99pTOT by 2100.

Machine learning-based predictions of current and future susceptibility to retrogressive thaw slumps across the Northern Hemisphere

Retrogressive thaw slumps(RTSs)caused by the thawing of ground ice on permafrost slopes have dramatically increased and become a common permafrost hazard across the Northern Hemisphere during previous decades.However,a gap remains in our comprehensive understanding of the spatial controlling factors,including the climate and terrain,that are conducive to these RTSs at a global scale.Using machine learning methodologies,we mapped the current and future RTSs susceptibility distributions by incorporating a range of environmental factors and RTSs inventories.We identified freezing-degree days and maximum summer rainfall as the primary environmental factors affecting RTSs susceptibility.The final ensemble susceptibility map suggests that regions with high to very high susceptibility could constitute(11.6±0.78)%of the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost region.When juxtaposed with the current(2000-2020)RTSs susceptibility map,the total area with high to very high susceptibility could witness an increase ranging from(31.7±0.65)%(SSP585)to(51.9±0.73)%(SSP126)by the 2041-2060.The insights gleaned from this study not only offer valuable implications for engineering applications across the Northern Hemisphere,but also provide a long-term insight into the potential change of RTSs in permafrost regions in response to climate change.

A long-term daily gridded snow depth dataset for the Northern Hemisphere from 1980 to 2019 based on machine learning

A high-quality snow depth product is very import for cryospheric science and its related disciplines.Current long time-series snow depth products covering the Northern Hemisphere can be divided into two categories:remote sensing snow depth products and reana-lysis snow depth products.However,existing gridded snow depth products have some shortcomings.Remote sensing-derived snow depth products are temporally and spatially discontinuous and tend to underestimate snow depth,while reanalysis snow depth products have coarse spatial resolutions and great uncertainties.To overcome these problems,in our previous work we proposed a novel data fusion framework based on Random Forest Regression of snow products from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System(AMSR-E),Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2(AMSR2),Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research(GlobSnow),the Northern Hemisphere Snow Depth(NHSD),ERA-Interim,and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications,ver-sion 2(MERRA-2),incorporating geolocation(latitude and longitude),and topographic data(elevation),which were used as input indepen-dent variables.More than 30,000 ground observation sites were used as the dependent variable to train and validate the model in different time periods.This fusion framework resulted in a long time series of continuous daily snow depth product over the Northern Hemisphere with a spatial resolution of 0.25°.Here,we compared the fused snow depth and the original gridded snow depth products with 13,272 observation sites,showing an improved precision of our product.The evaluation indices of the fused(best original)dataset yielded a coeffi-cient of determination R2 of 0.81(0.23),Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE)of 7.69(15.86)cm,and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)of 2.74(6.14)cm.Most of the bias(88.31%)between the fused snow depth and in situ observations was in the range of−5 cm to 5 cm.The accuracy assessment of independent snow observation sites-Sodankylä(SOD),Old Aspen(OAS),Old Black Spruce(OBS),and Old Jack Pine(OJP)-showed that the fused snow depth dataset had high precision for snow depths of less than 100 cm with a relatively homogeneous surrounding environment.The results of random point selection and independent in situ site validation show that the accuracy of the fused snow depth product is not significantly improved in deep snow areas and areas with complex terrain.In the altitude range of 100 m to 2000 m,the fused snow depth had a higher precision,with R2 varying from 0.73 to 0.86.The fused snow depth had a decreasing trend based on the spatiotemporal analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test method.This fused snow depth product provides the basis for understanding the temporal and spatial characteristics of snow cover and their relation to climate change,hydrological and water cycle,water resource manage-ment,ecological environment,snow disaster and hazard prevention.

A study of the contribution of mass elevation effect to the altitudinal distribution of timberline in the Northern Hemisphere

Alpine timberline, as the ＂ecologica tion of scientists in many fields, especially in transition zone,＂ has long attracted the atten- recent years. Many unitary and dibasic fitting models have been developed to explore the relationship between timberline elevation and latitude or temperature. However, these models are usually on regional scale and could not be applied to other regions; on the other hand, hemispherical-scale and continental-scale models are usually based on about 100 timberline data and are necessarily low in precision. The present article collects 516 data sites of timberline, and takes latitude, continentality and mass elevation effect （MEE） as independent variables and timberline elevation as dependent variable to develop a ternary linear regression meteorological data released by WorldClim and model. Continentality is calculated using the mountain base elevation （as a proxy of mass elevation effect） is extracted on the basis of SRTM 90-meter resolution elevation data. The results show that the coefficient of determination （R2） of the linear model is as high as 0.904, and that the contribution rate of latitude, continentality and MEE to timberline elevation is 45.02% （p=0.000）, 6.04% （p=0.000） and 48.94% （p=0.000）, respectively. This means that MEE is simply the primary factor contributing to the elevation distribution of timberline on the continental and hemispherical scales. The contribution rate of MEE to timberline altitude dif- fers in different regions, e.g., 50.49% （p=0.000） in North America, 48.73% （p=0.000） in the eastern Eurasia, and 43.6% （p=0.000） in the western Eurasia, but it is usually very high.

The state and fate of lake ice thickness in the Northern Hemisphere

Lake ice thickness(LIT)is important for regional hydroclimate systems,lake ecosystems,and human activities on the ice,and is thought to be highly susceptible to global warming.However,the spatiotemporal variability in LIT is largely unknown due to the difficulty in deriving in situ measurements and the lack of an effective remote sensing platform.Despite intensive development and applications of lake ice models driven by general circulation model output,evaluation of the global LIT is mostly based on assumed“ideal”lakes in each grid cell of the climate forcing data.A method for calculating the actual global LIT is therefore urgently needed.Here we use satellite altimetry to retrieve ice thickness for 16 large lakes in the Northern Hemisphere(Lake Baikal,Great Slave Lake,and others)with an accuracy of~0.2 m for almost three decades.We then develop a 1-D lake ice model driven primarily by remotely sensed data and cross-validated with the altimetric LIT to provide a robust means of estimating LIT for lakes larger than 50 km^(2)across the Northern Hemisphere.Mean LIT(annual maximum ice thickness)for 1313 simulated lakes and reservoirs covering~840,000 km^(2)for 2003–2018 is 0.63±0.02 m,corresponding to~485 Gt of water.LIT changes are projected for 2071–2099 under RCPs 2.6,6.0,and 8.5,showing that the mean LIT could decrease by~0.35 m under the worst concentration pathway and the associated lower ice road availability could have a significant impact on socio-economic activities.

CLIMATIC ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FOR 1920s AND 1950s

In recent years,a large number of papers on the climatic sudden change have been presented.From the viewpoint of climatic sudden change,two methods of studying climatic sudden change are applied in this paper.The Northern Hemi- sphere land temperature(NHLT)during 1851—1984,China temperature(CT)during 1873—1990 and the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure(NHSLP)at each grid point during 1899—1987 are analyzed by the moving T-test.The results show that there exist two climatic sudden changes in the 1920s and the 1950s during the past 100 years,and then features of circulation for the two sudden changes are discussed by the NHSLP data.