Multi-Step Clustering of Smart Meters Time Series:Application to Demand Flexibility Characterization of SME Customers

Customer segmentation according to load-shape profiles using smart meter data is an increasingly important application to vital the planning and operation of energy systems and to enable citizens’participation in the energy transition.This study proposes an innovative multi-step clustering procedure to segment customers based on load-shape patterns at the daily and intra-daily time horizons.Smart meter data is split between daily and hourly normalized time series to assess monthly,weekly,daily,and hourly seasonality patterns separately.The dimensionality reduction implicit in the splitting allows a direct approach to clustering raw daily energy time series data.The intraday clustering procedure sequentially identifies representative hourly day-unit profiles for each customer and the entire population.For the first time,a step function approach is applied to reduce time series dimensionality.Customer attributes embedded in surveys are employed to build external clustering validation metrics using Cramer’s V correlation factors and to identify statistically significant determinants of load-shape in energy usage.In addition,a time series features engineering approach is used to extract 16 relevant demand flexibility indicators that characterize customers and corresponding clusters along four different axes:available Energy(E),Temporal patterns(T),Consistency(C),and Variability(V).The methodology is implemented on a real-world electricity consumption dataset of 325 Small and Medium-sized Enterprise(SME)customers,identifying 4 daily and 6 hourly easy-to-interpret,well-defined clusters.The application of the methodology includes selecting key parameters via grid search and a thorough comparison of clustering distances and methods to ensure the robustness of the results.Further research can test the scalability of the methodology to larger datasets from various customer segments(households and large commercial)and locations with different weather and socioeconomic conditions.

透视英语世界的华语电影研究——以Journal of Chinese Cinemas为例

自20世纪80年代前后中国电影逐步进入西方学术界的研究视野[1],到如今已走过了40多个年头。中国电影研究更已成为西方学术界的显学,其标志之一便是已有近13年历史的《华语电影杂志》(Journal ofChineseCinemas)转由全球著名的劳特利奇(Routledge)出版公司出版,并入选艺术和人文引文索引(A&HCI)期刊[2]。该杂志关照了华语电影的过去、现在和未来,汇集了活跃于英语学术界的中国电影研究专家的成果,可以视为掌握英语世界的华语电影研究动向的一扇窗。

基于Cinema 4D的三维模型减面优化方法与实践

随着虚拟现实、计算机辅助设计和游戏开发的不断发展,高质量三维模型的应用变得越来越迫切。大型工程机械的设计结构复杂,零件组合模式多样,这类模型整体上动辄千万个面,甚至上亿个面。由于面数太多,可能发生在程序中无法流畅运行的情况,三维模型减面优化是亟待解决的重要问题。文章以Cinema 4D为制作平台,简要介绍了其内置的三维模型减面工具,探讨了工程机械掘锚机在减面优化方面所用到的方法与实践。通过在Cinema 4D中内置减面工具以及使用重拓扑插件Quad Remesher等手段,验证了基于Cinema 4D的三维模型减面优化方法的有效性与实用性。

上海国际电影论坛暨展览会(CinemaS)聚焦点播影院价值

6月20-22日,上海国际电影论坛暨展览会（CinemaS）将在上海世博展览馆举行。作为国内影响较大、探讨方向深刻多元的影院行业会议,CinemaS将汇集电影及影院行业的多方疑问,对电影产业的走向和趋势进行前瞻性解读。其中,6月21日的＂中国二级电影市场发展论坛＂以＂规范、整合、新势力＂为主题,邀请点播影院行业内的企业代表、互联网平台方、有意进入点播影院行业的资本方.

Research on Demand Response Potential of Adjustable Loads in Demand Response Scenarios

To address the issues of limited demand response data,low generalization of demand response potential evaluation,and poor demand response effect,the article proposes a demand response potential feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining and a demand response potential assessment model for adjustable loads in demand response scenarios based on subjective and objective weight analysis.Firstly,based on the demand response process and demand response behavior,obtain demand response characteristics that characterize the process and behavior.Secondly,establish a feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining,including similar day clustering,time series decomposition,redundancy processing,and data prediction.The predicted values of each demand response feature on the response day are obtained.Thirdly,the predicted data of various characteristics on the response day are used as demand response potential evaluation indicators to represent different demand response scenarios and adjustable loads,and a demand response potential evaluation model based on subjective and objective weight allocation is established to calculate the demand response potential of different adjustable loads in different demand response scenarios.Finally,the effectiveness of the method proposed in the article is verified through examples,providing a reference for load aggregators to formulate demand response schemes.

A Combination Prediction Model for Short Term Travel Demand of Urban Taxi

This study proposes a prediction model considering external weather and holiday factors to address the issue of accurately predicting urban taxi travel demand caused by complex data and numerous influencing factors.The model integrates the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN)and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory Neural Network(ConvLSTM)to predict short-term taxi travel demand.The CEEMDAN decomposition method effectively decomposes time series data into a set of modal components,capturing sequence characteristics at different time scales and frequencies.Based on the sample entropy value of components,secondary processing of more complex sequence components after decomposition is employed to reduce the cumulative prediction error of component sequences and improve prediction efficiency.On this basis,considering the correlation between the spatiotemporal trends of short-term taxi traffic,a ConvLSTM neural network model with Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)time series processing ability and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)spatial feature processing ability is constructed to predict the travel demand for urban taxis.The combined prediction model is tested on a taxi travel demand dataset in a certain area of Beijing.The results show that the CEEMDAN-ConvLSTM prediction model outperforms the LSTM,Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA),CNN,and ConvLSTM benchmark models in terms of Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error(SMAPE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and R2 metrics.Notably,the SMAPE metric exhibits a remarkable decline of 21.03%with the utilization of our proposed model.These results confirm that our study provides a highly accurate and valid model for taxi travel demand forecasting.

Stochastic programming based coordinated expansion planning of generation,transmission,demand side resources,and energy storage considering the DC transmission system

With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.

Optimal dispatching strategy for residential demand response considering load participation

To facilitate the coordinated and large-scale participation of residential flexible loads in demand response(DR),a load aggregator(LA)can integrate these loads for scheduling.In this study,a residential DR optimization scheduling strategy was formulated considering the participation of flexible loads in DR.First,based on the operational characteristics of flexible loads such as electric vehicles,air conditioners,and dishwashers,their DR participation,the base to calculate the compensation price to users,was determined by considering these loads as virtual energy storage.It was quantified based on the state of virtual energy storage during each time slot.Second,flexible loads were clustered using the K-means algorithm,considering the typical operational and behavioral characteristics as the cluster centroid.Finally,the LA scheduling strategy was implemented by introducing a DR mechanism based on the directrix load.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed DR approach can effectively reduce peak loads and fill valleys,thereby improving the load management performance.

Physics Guided Deep Learning-Based Model for Short-Term Origin–Destination Demand Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems Under Pandemic

Accurate origin–destination(OD)demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit(URT)systems,particularly during a pandemic.However,this task faces several limitations,including real-time availability,sparsity,and high-dimensionality issues,and the impact of the pandemic.Consequently,this study proposes a unified framework called the physics-guided adaptive graph spatial–temporal attention network(PAG-STAN)for metro OD demand prediction under pandemic conditions.Specifically,PAG-STAN introduces a real-time OD estimation module to estimate real-time complete OD demand matrices.Subsequently,a novel dynamic OD demand matrix compression module is proposed to generate dense real-time OD demand matrices.Thereafter,PAG-STAN leverages various heterogeneous data to learn the evolutionary trend of future OD ridership during the pandemic.Finally,a masked physics-guided loss function(MPG-loss function)incorporates the physical quantity information between the OD demand and inbound flow into the loss function to enhance model interpretability.PAG-STAN demonstrated favorable performance on two real-world metro OD demand datasets under the pandemic and conventional scenarios,highlighting its robustness and sensitivity for metro OD demand prediction.A series of ablation studies were conducted to verify the indispensability of each module in PAG-STAN.

Demand-Responsive Transportation Vehicle Routing Optimization Based on Two-Stage Method

Demand-responsive transportation(DRT)is a flexible passenger service designed to enhance road efficiency,reduce peak-hour traffic,and boost passenger satisfaction.However,existing optimization methods for initial passenger requests fall short in addressing real-time passenger needs.Consequently,there is a need to develop realtime DRT route optimization methods that integrate both initial and real-time requests.This paper presents a twostage,multi-objective optimization model for DRT vehicle scheduling.The first stage involves an initial scheduling model aimed at minimizing vehicle configuration,and operational,and CO_(2)emission costs while ensuring passenger satisfaction.The second stage develops a real-time scheduling model to minimize additional operational costs,penalties for time window violations,and costs due to rejected passengers,thereby addressing real-time demands.Additionally,an enhanced genetic algorithm based on Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II(NSGA-II)is designed,incorporating multiple crossover points to accelerate convergence and improve solution efficiency.The proposed scheduling model is validated using a real network in Shanghai.Results indicate that realtime scheduling can serve more passengers,and improve vehicle utilization and occupancy rates,with only a minor increase in total operational costs.Compared to the traditional NSGA-II algorithm,the improved version enhances convergence speed by 31.7%and solution speed by 4.8%.The proposed model and algorithm offer both theoretical and practical guidance for real-world DRT scheduling.

Optimal Bidding Strategies of Microgrid with Demand Side Management for Economic Emission Dispatch Incorporating Uncertainty and Outage of Renewable Energy Sources

In the restructured electricity market,microgrid(MG),with the incorporation of smart grid technologies,distributed energy resources(DERs),a pumped-storage-hydraulic(PSH)unit,and a demand response program(DRP),is a smarter and more reliable electricity provider.DER consists of gas turbines and renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic systems and wind turbines.Better bidding strategies,prepared by MG operators,decrease the electricity cost and emissions from upstream grid and conventional and renewable energy sources(RES).But it is inefficient due to the very high sporadic characteristics of RES and the very high outage rate.To solve these issues,this study suggests non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)for an optimal bidding strategy considering pumped hydroelectric energy storage and DRP based on outage conditions and uncertainties of renewable energy sources.The uncertainty related to solar and wind units is modeled using lognormal and Weibull probability distributions.TOU-based DRP is used,especially considering the time of outages along with the time of peak loads and prices,to enhance the reliability of MG and reduce costs and emissions.

A Novel Defender-Attacker-Defender Model for Resilient Distributed Generator Planning with Network Reconfiguration and Demand Response

To improve the resilience of a distribution system against extreme weather,a fuel-based distributed generator(DG)allocation model is proposed in this study.In this model,the DGs are placed at the planning stage.When an extreme event occurs,the controllable generators form temporary microgrids(MGs)to restore the load maximally.Simultaneously,a demand response program(DRP)mitigates the imbalance between the power supply and demand during extreme events.To cope with the fault uncertainty,a robust optimization(RO)method is applied to reduce the long-term investment and short-term operation costs.The optimization is formulated as a tri-level defenderattacker-defender(DAD)framework.At the first level,decision-makers work out the DG allocation scheme;at the second level,the attacker finds the optimal attack strategy with maximum damage;and at the third level,restoration measures,namely distribution network reconfiguration(DNR)and demand response are performed.The problem is solved by the nested column and constraint generation(NC&CG)method and the model is validated using an IEEE 33-node system.Case studies validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model according to the enhanced resilience and reduced cost.

技术趋势与创新突围CinemaS2021影院科技看点一览

6月16日-18日,第9届上海国际电影论坛暨展览会(CinemaS2021)在上海世博展览馆举办。CinemaS作为中国电影发行、放映领域的重要展会,集中展示了影院科技、影院发展与创新、影院终端运营、影院经营等方面的重要趋势和最新热点。

Vehicle routing optimization algorithm based on time windows and dynamic demand

To provide the supplier with the minimizum vehicle travel distance in the distribution process of goods in three situations of new customer demand,customer cancellation service,and change of customer delivery address,based on the ideas of pre-optimization and real-time optimization,a two-stage planning model of dynamic demand based vehicle routing problem with time windows was established.At the pre-optimization stage,an improved genetic algorithm was used to obtain the pre-optimized distribution route,a large-scale neighborhood search method was integrated into the mutation operation to improve the local optimization performance of the genetic algorithm,and a variety of operators were introduced to expand the search space of neighborhood solutions;At the real-time optimization stage,a periodic optimization strategy was adopted to transform a complex dynamic problem into several static problems,and four neighborhood search operators were used to quickly adjust the route.Two different scale examples were designed for experiments.It is proved that the algorithm can plan the better route,and adjust the distribution route in time under the real-time constraints.Therefore,the proposed algorithm can provide theoretical guidance for suppliers to solve the dynamic demand based vehicle routing problem.

基于Cinema 4D的产品宣传动画设计与制作

产品宣传动画可通过生动、直观的方式传递信息,增强品牌形象,是市场营销中不可或缺的有力工具。Cinema 4D是一款功能强大的动画制作软件,其独有的运动图形和动力学模拟功能,在三维动画制作领域中区分于Maya、3Dmax等传统老牌动画制作软件,可快速地制作出动画效果,提高工作效率。文章旨在探讨应用Cinema 4D制作产品宣传动画的方法与技术,通过对“智能鞋包”制作案例的分析,着重介绍“智能鞋包”前期、中期、后期等动画制作的技术要点和设计过程。

基于Cinema 4D的IP形象塑造研究

Cinema 4D是计算机辅助设计领域中较为前沿的应用工具,文章就如何应用Cinema 4D进行IP形象全流程设计制作展开研究,分析IP形象在设计制作和应用过程中可能遇到的问题,提出IP形象全流程的有效设计制作方法。并且以自身IP形象设计为例,总结出一套有效、易用的技术指南,如三维建模、UV拆分、灯光材质渲染、骨骼动画、表情包制作、数据交换等。应用Cinema 4D辅助设计IP形象这一套全流程的设计方法,可以较为容易地解决IP形象设计中各流程的技术问题。

Stochastic Air Traffic Flow Management for Demand and Capacity Balancing Under Capacity Uncertainty

This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.

A Note on an Order Level Inventory Model with Varying Two-Phased Demand and Time-Proportional Deterioration

The main purpose of this paper is to generalize the effect of two-phased demand and variable deterioration within the EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) framework. The rate of deterioration is a linear function of time. The two-phased demand function states the constant function for a certain period and the quadratic function of time for the rest part of the cycle time. No shortages as well as partial backlogging are allowed to occur. The mathematical expressions are derived for determining the optimal cycle time, order quantity and total cost function. An easy-to-use working procedure is provided to calculate the above quantities. A couple of numerical examples are cited to explain the theoretical results and sensitivity analysis of some selected examples is carried out.

Fuzzy Inventory Model under Selling Price Dependent Demand and Variable Deterioration with Fully Backlogged Shortages

The objective is to develop a model considering demand dependent on selling price and deterioration occurs after a certain period of time, which follows two-parameter Weibull distribution. Shortages are allowed and fully backlogged. Fuzzy optimal solution is obtained by considering hexagonal fuzzy numbers and for defuzzification Graded Mean Integration Representation Method. A numerical example is provided for the illustration of crisp and fuzzy, both models. To observe the effect of changes in parameters, sensitivity analysis is carried out.

A Note on a One-Parameter Weibull Distributed Deteriorating Item EOQ Inventory Model with Varying Quadratic Demand and Delay in Payments

In this paper, an EOQ inventory model is developed for deteriorating items with variable rates of deterioration and conditions of grace periods when demand is a quadratic function of time. The deterioration rate considered here is a special type of Weibull distribution deterioration rate, i.e., a one-parameter Weibull distribution deterioration rate and it increases with respect to time. The quadratic demand precisely depicts of the demand of seasonal items, fashion apparels, cosmetics, and newly launched essential commodities like android mobiles, laptops, automobiles etc., coming to the market. The model is divided into three policies according to the occurrence of the grace periods. Shortages, backlogging and complete backlogging cases are not allowed to occur in the model. The proposed model is well-explained with the help of a simple solution procedure. The three numerical examples are taken to illustrate the effectiveness of the EOQ inventory model along with sensitivity analysis.