Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

Large-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project(PAMIP)were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS-f3-L).Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature(SST)and sea ice concentration(SIC)for pre-industrial,present-day,and future conditions were performed and published.The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members,with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period.The basic model responses of the surface air temperature(SAT)and precipitation were documented.The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes.The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes,which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC.However,the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC,partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes.The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members.The relative roles of SST and SIC,together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification,are also discussed.All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.