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基于PMIP3和CMIP5模拟结果的过去千年特征时段北极涛动的变率特征及成因分析 被引量:3
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作者 陈可凡 宁亮 +4 位作者 孙炜毅 覃燕敏 薛姣 刘健 严蜜 《气候与环境研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2020年第4期429-442,共14页
利用参与第三次古气候模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Ⅲ,PMIP3)过去千年气候模拟试验以及参与第五次耦合模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)全强... 利用参与第三次古气候模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Ⅲ,PMIP3)过去千年气候模拟试验以及参与第五次耦合模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)全强迫历史情景试验的9个地球系统模式模拟试验结果,对过去千年3个特征时段(中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期)北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)的变率及成因进行了分析。通过与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,模式能够较好地模拟出AO的空间模态及年际变化周期,且大部分模式能够模拟出过去50年AO的增强趋势。过去千年3个特征时段中,不同模式对中世纪气候异常期AO位相的模拟并不一致,但大部分模式显示小冰期AO基本呈现负位相,而现代暖期则表现为显著的正位相,与重建结果一致。基于多模式集合平均的机制分析表明,中世纪气候异常期北极地区海平面气压变化不显著,小冰期北极地区海平面气压显著偏正,现代暖期海平面气压显著偏负,这与现代暖期北极温度偏高而小冰期北极温度偏低有关。过去千年中,小冰期和现代暖期的AO变率分别受自然外强迫和人为外强迫的影响。 展开更多
关键词 北极涛动 pmip3 计划 CMIP5 计划 过去千年 特征时段
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Revisiting Mid-Holocene Temperature over China Using PMIP3 Simulations 被引量:5
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作者 TIAN Zhi-Ping JIANG Da-Bang 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2015年第6期358-364,共7页
Using the simulations performed by 15 cli mate models under the latest protocol of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project(PMIP)Phase 3(PMIP3),the authors revisited the annual and seasona temperature changes... Using the simulations performed by 15 cli mate models under the latest protocol of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project(PMIP)Phase 3(PMIP3),the authors revisited the annual and seasona temperature changes over China during the mid-Holocene Similar to the previous results produced by PMIP Phase 1(PMIP1)and 2(PMIP2)models,14(15)of the 15 PMIP3models reproduced colder annual(boreal winter and spring)temperature in response to mid-Holocene insola tion changes,with an average cooling of 0.33 K(1.31 K and 1.58 K)over China.The mid-Holocene boreal sum mer(autumn)temperature increased in all(13)of the 15PMIP3 models,with an average warming of 1.02 K(0.61K)at the national scale.Those changes simulated by the PMIP3 models were similar to those from the PMIP2simulations but generally weaker than those from the PMIP1 models.A considerable mismatch still existed between the simulated cooling by the PMIP3 models and the reconstructed warming for annual and winter tem peratures over China during the mid-Holocene,as wa also the case between the previous PMIP1/2 simulation and proxy data. 展开更多
关键词 MID-HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE OVER China pmip3 simulati
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The PMIP3 Simulated Climate Changes over Arid Central Asia during the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum 被引量:3
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作者 XU Hongna WANG Tao +3 位作者 WANG Huijun MIAO Jiapeng CHEN Jianhui CHEN Shengqian 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第3期725-742,共18页
In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were invest... In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI. 展开更多
关键词 pmip3 climate changes Arid Central Asia MID-HOLOCENE Last Glacial Maximum
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过去千年北大西洋热带气旋生成潜势的模拟研究:基于PMIP3气候模式 被引量:5
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作者 燕青 张仲石 +1 位作者 张冉 李香钰 《第四纪研究》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2017年第5期1141-1150,共10页
本文利用古气候模式比较计划第三阶段(PMIP3)10个耦合模式结果研究了过去千年北大西洋热带气旋生成潜势的空间特征。对于影响热带气旋生成的大尺度环境场而言,模拟结果表明中世纪暖期(950~1200A.D.)热带气旋潜在强度相对于小冰... 本文利用古气候模式比较计划第三阶段(PMIP3)10个耦合模式结果研究了过去千年北大西洋热带气旋生成潜势的空间特征。对于影响热带气旋生成的大尺度环境场而言,模拟结果表明中世纪暖期(950~1200A.D.)热带气旋潜在强度相对于小冰期(1600~1850A.D.)在北大西洋普遍增强,尤其是中纬度地区。中世纪暖期垂直风切变在10°~30°N之间的纬度带显著减小,而对流层中层相对湿度和低层绝对涡度在北大西洋东部增大。基于热带气旋生成潜势指数,中世纪暖期大尺度环境条件有利于热带气旋在北大西洋的生成和发展。同时,中世纪暖期热带气旋高空引导气流为东风异常,有利于热带气旋登陆北美地区。在百年尺度热带气旋气候态的角度,模拟结果与地质证据基本一致。此外,敏感性试验结果表明太阳辐射增加和火山活动减少对中世纪暖期北大西洋热带气旋生成潜势增加均有作用。 展开更多
关键词 过去千年 热带气旋 北大西洋 pmip3
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Paleoclimate Simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum by FGOALS 被引量:3
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作者 郑伟鹏 俞永强 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第3期684-698,共15页
Paleoclimate simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and Last Glacial maximum (LGM) by the latest versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 and Grid-point Version 2 (FGOA... Paleoclimate simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and Last Glacial maximum (LGM) by the latest versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 and Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-s2 and g2) are evaluated in this study. The MH is characterized by changes of insolation induced by orbital parameters, and the LGM is a glacial period with large changes in greenhouse gases, sea level and ice sheets. For the MH, both versions of FGOALS simulate reasonable responses to the changes of insolation, such as the enhanced summer monsoon in African-Asian regions. Model differences can be identified at regional and seasonal scales. The global annual mean surface air temperature (TAS) shows no significant change in FGOALS-s2, while FGOALS-g2 shows a global cooling of about 0.7~C that is related with a strong cooling during boreal winter. The amplitude of ENSO is weaker in FGOALS-g2, which agrees with proxy data. For the LGM, FGOALS-g2 captures the features of the cold and dry glacial climate, including a global cooling of 4.6℃ and a decrease in precipitation by 10%. The ENSO is weaker at the LGM, with a tendency of stronger ENSO cold events. Sensitivity analysis shows that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) estimated for FGOALS ranges between 4.23℃ and 4.59℃. The sensitivity of precipitation to the changes of TAS is -2.3%℃-1, which agrees with previous studies. FGOALS-g2 shows better simulations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and African summer monsoon precipitation in the MH when compared with FGOALS-gl.0; however, it is hard to conclude any improvements for the LGM. 展开更多
关键词 PALEOCLIMATE FGOALS pmip3 MID-HOLOCENE LGM
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