Soil erosion susceptibility mapping of Hangu Region,Kohat Plateau of Pakistan using GIS and RS-based models

Soil erosion is a crucial geo-environmental hazard worldwide that affects water quality and agriculture,decreases reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation,and increases the danger of flooding and landslides.Thus,this study uses geospatial modeling to produce soil erosion susceptibility maps(SESM)for the Hangu region,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KPK),Pakistan.The Hangu region,located in the Kohat Plateau of KPK,Pakistan,is particularly susceptible to soil erosion due to its unique geomorphological and climatic characteristics.Moreover,the Hangu region is characterized by a combination of steep slopes,variable rainfall patterns,diverse land use,and distinct soil types,all of which contribute to the complexity and severity of soil erosion processes.These factors necessitate a detailed and region-specific study to develop effective soil conservation strategies.In this research,we detected and mapped 1013 soil erosion points and prepared 12 predisposing factors(elevation,aspect,slope,Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index(NDVI),drainage network,curvature,Land Use Land Cover(LULC),rainfall,lithology,contour,soil texture,and road network)of soil erosion using GIS platform.Additionally,GIS-based statistical models like the weight of evidence(WOE)and frequency ratio(FR)were applied to produce the SESM for the study area.The SESM was reclassified into four classes,i.e.,low,medium,high,and very high zone.The results of WOE for SESM show that 16.39%,33.02%,29.27%,and 21.30%of areas are covered by low,medium,high,and very high zones,respectively.In contrast,the FR results revealed that 16.50%,24.33%,35.55%,and 23.59%of the areas are occupied by low,medium,high,and very high classes.Furthermore,the reliability of applied models was evaluated using the Area Under Curve(AUC)technique.The validation results utilizing the area under curve showed that the success rate curve(SRC)and predicted rate curve(PRC)for WOE are 82%and 86%,respectively,while SRC and PRC for FR are 85%and 96%,respectively.The validation results revealed that the FR model performance is better and more reliable than the WOE.

Promotion of sexual and reproductive health in Pakistan-The role of technology and online awareness

Digital health innovations such as online webinars,websites,blogs,and health apps have been associated with increased sexual and reproductive health(SRH)among the general population.Many studies have been conducted in developed countries in the West;however,little research has been conducted in low-income countries,especially in Pakistan.The socioeconomic instability and the government's lack of awareness and knowledge have resulted in no regulations being placed to incorporate telehealth in medicine.The healthcare departments must take into consideration the lifechanging impact of telehealth and the barriers that prevent it in becoming known,to reduce the incidence of unsafe abortions and sexual health practices that prove to be a stigma in society.

Electronic health records as a window into telehealth:exploring service utilisation and mental health outcomes in Pakistan

The usefulness of telemedicine has been acknowledged because of coronavirus disease 2019,which highlighted it as a prominent and expedient method of delivering healthcare support while ensuring safety.1The implementation of telemedicine can be traced to nearly every corner of the globe,from advanced economies like the USA and Europe to the most remote African villages.Today,telemedicine is widely used in developed nations.

New Data on Coal, Gypsum, Iron and Silica Sand Deposits and Geochemical Exploration (Pakistan): Revision of 25 Years History of Dinosaur Discoveries from Pakistan

Discoveries of many coal seams at depths by drilling carried by Geological Survey of Pakistan in Sor Range and Harnai Gochina, extended the coal seams at depth which is challenge for mine owners to exploit feasibly. Bed to bed gypsum samplings (and their chemical analyses) of huge gypsum deposits from Sulaiman foldbelt is a base for industrialist and also planers to develop cement and gypsum industries to increase export and foreign exchange for the development of area and Pakistan. Low and high grade sedimentary iron deposits, silica sand and uranium host rocks and their extensions in Sulaiman and Kirthar foldbelts are presented. Anomalies of a few base metals arise as a result of geochemical exploration carried at part of Loralai District of Balochistan. Theropod dinosaurs were frequent in India, while Poripuchian titanosaurs (Sauropoda, Dinosauria) were frequent in Pakistan. Besides some ichnotaxa, many bone taxa such as 1 titanosauriform, 14 titanosaurian sauropod (including one new titanosaur), and 3 theropod dinosaurs are established from Pakistan. Among these 12 titanosaur species and 3 theropod species are named in about 10 km2 area of Vitakri dome and 2 titanosaur species are named in about a few hundred square meter area of Mari Bohri (Kachi Bohri) which is about 10 km westward from Vitakri dome. Pakistan is a unique country which discoverd 14 diversified titanosaurs in a short area and also in a short period (67 - 66 million years ago/Ma). About 400 bones found from a few meter thick upper part of upper shale horizon of latest Maastrichtian Vitakri Formation which is base for titanosaur taxa. Cranial material is in low fraction (but include significant diverse snouts), caudal vertebrae are prominent, the cervicals, dorsals and sacrals have significant numbers, forelimb and hind limb bones have balanced fraction. Humeri, femora and tibiae are most common. To know the position of Pakistani titanosaurs among titanosaurs and sauropods, there is a need to extend list of characters for phylogenetic analyses. This broad feature list should include main characters of titanosaurs from Pakistan and also from global world.

Knowledge and discriminatory attitudes towards HIV/AIDS among the women of reproductive age group of Pakistan using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey(MICS)

Background Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)has become a major worldwide public health issue,with a focus on developing nations.Despite having a very low HIV prevalence,South Asia faces serious issues with stigma and false information because of a lack of awareness.This stigma highlights significant gaps in popular awareness while also sustaining unfavorable attitudes towards those living with HIV/AIDS.Pakistan is ranked second in South Asia for the rapidly increasing AIDS epidemic.Thorough information and optimistic outlooks are essential for successful HIV/AIDS prevention,control,and treatment.But false beliefs about how HIV/AIDS spreads lead to negative perceptions,which highlights the need to look into how women’s knowledge and attitudes about HIV/AIDS in Pakistan are influenced by sociodemographic traits and autonomy.Methods The purpose of this study is to evaluate Pakistani women’s discriminatory attitudes and level of awareness on HIV/AIDS.This study used data(the women in reproductive age 15-49 years’dataset)from the Pakistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to conduct an analytical cross-sectional analysis.To represent the respondents’attitudes and knowledge towards people living with HIV(PLHIV),two composite variables were developed and composite scored.Binary logistics regression was used to identify predictor variables and chi-square was used for bivariate analysis.Results The findings reveal that almost 90%of Pakistani women have poor knowledge and attitude with HIV/AIDS.In Punjab,72.8%of rural residents have low knowledge,whereas only 20.6%of young individuals(15-<25 years old)show the least amount of ignorance.Education is shown to be crucial,and“Higher”education is associated with superior knowledge.Urban dwellers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa typically have more expertise.Knowledge of HIV is positively correlated with education;those with higher education levels know a lot more(odds ratio[OR]=5.419).Similarly,quintiles with greater incomes show a higher likelihood of knowing about HIV(OR=6.745).The study identifies age,wealth index,place of residence,educational attainment,and exposure to contemporary media as significant predictors influencing HIV knowledge and attitudes among women in these provinces.Conclusion The majority of respondents had negative opinions regarding the virus,and the majority of women in the study knew very little about HIV.Individuals who live in metropolitan areas,have higher incomes,are better educated,are exposed to contemporary media,and are generally more aware of HIV and have more positive attitudes towards HIV/AIDS,or PLHIV.The study found that,in comparison to those living in urban environments,those from rural areas with low socioeconomic level have a negative attitude and inadequate understanding.

The Dissemination and Development of Chinese Medicine in Pakistan

The article focuses on the dissemination and development of Chinese medicine in Pakistan.Religious records show that Chinese medicine was introduced to Pakistan as early as 1,400 years ago,while Hijama(Chinese cupping)was used by Prophet Hazrat Muhammad to cure different types of diseases.Exchanges and cooperations between China and Pakistan continue to the present day.Acupuncture and moxibustion therapy,cupping therapy and herbal medicine are practiced with significant merits in today’s Pakistan.In the future,with the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative and the landmark project of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,Chinese medicine can be strengthened through cooperations at the herbal medicine trade level,the research and development level,the educational level,and the social association level.

Assessing the potential of underground storage of flood water:A case study from Southern Punjab Region in Pakistan

An intensively irrigated area in southern part of Punjab Province,Pakistan,has been selected by the Punjab Irrigation Department(PID)to implement a Managed Aquifer Recharge(MAR)project.This project involves diverting floodwater from the Islam Headwork on Sutlej River into the abandoned Mailsi Canal.Utilizing various structures such as depressions,abandoned canals,flood channels,open fields,and deserts for MAR can reduce the flood intensity while recharging aquifer and wetlands.The study area,known for its fertile lands and serving as a food basket for the Punjab Province,is experiencing groundwa-ter depletion at the rate of 0.30 m to 0.70 m per year,significantly increasing pumping costs.This study aims to evaluate the suitability of the sites for the MAR project and assess the storage capacity of the aquifer for floodwater retention.Historical groundwater level data from 25 observation wells across an area of 1,522 km^(2)were analysed,with the study area divided in to 25 polygons using ArcMap10.6 software.Specific yield method was employed to assess the available storage capacity of the aquifer.Results indicate that the site is suitable for MAR and has the potential to store approximately 1.88 km3 of floodwater as of 2020,thereby reducing flood intensity and enhancing eco-hydrogeological conditions.MAR is identified as a Nature-Based Solution(NBS)for both flood mitigation and groundwater sustainability.

What Does Research Say for Improving the Efficiency of Lady Healthcare Workers in Pakistan? Review Article

Background: In Pakistan, the crucial role of Lady Health Workers (LHWs) cannot be over looked and must be supported. Their alliance position between the community and health system allows them to provide services to the most marginalised groups. However, LHWs face numerous challenges and issues resulting in reduced efficiency and effectiveness of LHW program. Aims: The study aims to identify the challenges highlighted in various studies that undermine the performance of LHWs and attempts to combine the recommendations of the studies for addressing these challenges. Methods: Literature search included articles from 2000 to 2024. PubMed and Google Scholar were the main search engines utilized. Initial search resulted in 1380 articles, out of which only those showing a link to the study title were included in the study. From the total articles searched, 55 were selected for writing this article. Results: Literature highlighted the importance of community selection, monitoring, monetary as well as non-financial incentives;trainings;availability of supervision, workload balance, monitoring;recognition, clarity on roles, resources and uninterrupted supply of logistics, support and embedment of LHWs in community and health system. Lack or poor quality of these aspects may lead to low performance of LHWs. Conclusions: This paper explores the extent of issues and challenges faced by LHWs in Pakistan. A number of interventions appear to be effective in improving the efficiency of LHWs in Pakistan. The review may serve as an essential resource for program planners and decision-makers in improving the effectiveness and efficiency of LHW programs.

Adult minimal change disease:Clinicopathologic characteristics,treatment response and outcome at a single center in Pakistan

BACKGROUND Minimal change disease(MCD)is a significant cause of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome(INS)in adults,representing approximately 10%-15% of INS cases.The data is scanty on clinicopathological features,treatment responses,and long-term outcomes of MCD in adults.AIM To determine the clinicopathologic characteristics,treatment responses,and medium-term outcomes of adult patients with MCD in Pakistan.METHODS This retrospective cohort study included all adult patients with biopsy-proven MCD treated at the adult nephrology clinic,Sindh institute of urology and transplantation,between January 2010 and December 2020.The data was retrieved from the original renal biopsy request forms in the histopathology archives and the case files.Data on demographics,clinical presentation,laboratory findings,treatment regimens,and outcomes were collected and analyzed.Complete remission(CR),partial remission(PR),relapse,and steroid resistance were defined according to standard criteria.Statistical analyses were performed using statistical product and service solutions,Version 22.RESULTS The study cohort included 23 adults[15(65.2%males),mean age 26.34±10.28 years].Hypertension was found in 7(30.4%)and microscopic hematuria in 10(43.4%)of participants.Laboratory findings revealed a mean serum creatinine of 1.03±1.00 mg/dL,mean serum albumin of 1.94±0.90 g/dL and mean 24-hour urinary proteins of 4.53±2.43 g.The mean follow-up time was 38.09±22.3 months.Treatment with steroids was effective in 16/18(88.8%)of patients,with 10/16(62.5%)achieving CR and 6/16(37.5%)achieving PR.Two patients were resistant to steroids and required second-line immunosuppressive therapy.Relapse occurred in 4/20(19.04%)of patients,with a mean time to first relapse of 6.5±3.31 months.At the last follow-up,18/20(85.7%)of patients were in remission,and 16/20(76.1%)maintained normal renal function.No patients progressed to end-stage renal disease or died.CONCLUSION MCD in adults shows a favorable response to steroid therapy,with a majority achieving remission.However,relapses are common,necessitating second-line immunosuppressive treatments in some cases.The study highlights the need for standardized treatment guidelines for adult MCD to optimize outcomes.

Inflammatory bowel disease in Pakistan:Low prevalence or underdiagnosis?

Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)has a low prevalence in the Global South,including Pakistan.While genetics and gut flora,influenced by diet and the environment,can contribute to this,we are exploring the possibility of underdiagnosis.Lack of facilities trained in IBD,scarcity of medications,limited health insurance for specialist referral and the current epidemic of abdominal tuberculosis could be the cause.The increasing diagnosis of IBD among Pakistani immigrants and colorectal carcinoma among the young population might be the result of this.Timely referrals by primary care physicians to gastroenterologists,along with the growing use of newer technologies such as abdominal ultrasound for diagnosis can help mitigate the challenge of low or late diagnosis of this chronic condition.

Economic and Social Impact Assessment of Chronic Diseases Among the Low-Income Population in Southern Punjab,Pakistan

Introduction:Chronic diseases are becoming more prevalent worldwide.The effects of chronic illnesses are disastrous not only for the diagnosed person but also for their entire family.This study explores chronic diseases’social and economic impact on low-income families.The study aims to determine the economic and social implications of various chronic diseases and the loss of income due to these conditions among low-income individuals in Southern Punjab,Pakistan.Methodology:A sample of 424 patients was selected from different areas of Southern Punjab.Data were collected using a questionnaire that included questions about economic status,self-reported health status,social status,management strategies,and health insurance,among other factors.Results:The mean monthly income of the respondents was found to be 57,097.6 Pakistani rupee(PKR),and the mean monthly expenses for treatment were 8,256.1 PKR.The loss of income was calculated at 15%.Additionally,62%of patients spent more than 10%of their monthly income on managing their disease.Approximately 85%of the respondents reported that chronic diseases affected their social life.Furthermore,80%of patients lacked health insurance.Conclusion:Chronic diseases impose significant economic and social burdens on patients and their families in Southern Punjab.To reduce the burden of chronic diseases,the government should enhance healthcare services in this region and provide health insurance to low-income families.

Pakistani English

Pakistan is a typical English-speaking country in south Asia. However, the data of Pakistan English is extremely rare. If one wants to grasp the English features in south Asia and try to find the similarities among different languages, he should know something about Pakistani English.In this paper, the background information about Pakistan will be mentioned as well as the English situation in this country,including English education, English problems, pronunciation features, and Pakistani literature.

Range extension of four highland agamid lizards in Shimshal Pamir,Pakistan

As part of the Sino-Pak trans-boundary cooperation for conservation and sustainable development in Pamir border region, World Wild Fund （WWF）-Pakistan conducted a preliminary social, economic and ecological survey in the ShimshaI-Pamir Lakes area in July 2009. The purpose of the study was to explore potentials and opportunities for future collaborative conservation of some species, habitats and high altitude ecosystems in the border region between China and Pakistan. The two-week herpetological study in the Shimshal Pamir area of Khunjerab National Park （KNP） along Pakistan-China border was an integral part of the survey, conducted exclu- sively to document reptilian fauna with a special emphasis on investigating their occurrence, distribution and status in the study area. Field investigations were performed during daytime when it was hot enough and reptiles were active, basking or feeding. A total of 15 specimens belonging to four species of the Agamidae family were captured by striking stones and beating bushes with sticks. Collected specimens were preserved using 10% formalin solution, tagged with field information and stored in Zoological Survey Department, Karachi for future reference. Laboratory investigations were carried out for pholidosic counts and morphometric measurements. A detailed review of relevant literature, habitat characteristics and laboratory investigations revealed the occurrence of Laudakia himalayana, L. pakistanica, L. tuberculata and L. badakhshana at 4,082 m, 4,172 m, 4,005 m and 4,240 m asl, respectively, which are much higher altitudes as compared to the previously reported heights of 3,353 m, 3,200 m, 2,500 m and 2,400 m asl. The terrain offers a variety of ecological barriers, in the form of fast and freezing running waters and massive glaciers with peculiar harsh climatic conditions prevailing for nine months of the year, which restricts species migration and thus increases endemism. Although one of the four species recorded from the study area, i.e.L, pakistanica is endemic to Pakistan, L. tuberculata and L. badakhshana are new records from Shimshal, Pakistan, so a detailed investigation is suggested for further herpetological records from the study area.

Geology and Mineral Deposits of Saraikistan (South Punjab, Koh Sulaiman Range) of Pakistan: A Tabular Review of Recently Discovered Biotas from Pakistan and Paleobiogeographic Link: Phylogeny and Hypodigm of Poripuchian Titanosaurs from Indo-Pakistan

Saraikistan (South Punjab and surrounding) area of Pakistan is located in the central Pakistan. This area represents Triassic-Jurassic to Recent sedimentary marine and terrestrial strata. Most of the Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic are represented by marine strata with rare terrestrial deposits, while the Late Cenozoic is represented by continental fluvial deposits. This area hosts significant mineral deposits and their development can play a significant role in the development of Saraikistan region and ultimately for Pakistan. The data of recently discovered biotas from Cambrian to Miocene age are tabulated for quick view. Mesozoic biotas show a prominent paleobiogeographic link with Gondwana and Cenozoic show Eurasian. Phylogeny and hypodigm of Poripuchian titanosaurs from India and Pakistan are hinted at here.

STRUCTURAL AND THERMAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTH ASIAN CONTINENTAL MARGIN ALONG THE KARAKORAM AND HINDU KUSH RANGES,NORTH PAKISTAN

Prior to the collision and accretion of the Kohistan arc terrane during the late Cretaceous and the Indian plate after the early Eocene, the southern margin of Asia along the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Lhasa block terranes was an active Andean\|type continental margin. In south Tibet this margin was dominated by the calc\|alkaline Ladakh—Gangdese granite batholith, associated andesitic volcanic rocks and continental red\|beds. In contrast, the southern Karakoram exposes deep crustal metamorphic rocks and crustal melt leucogranites. New U\|Pb age dating from the Hunza valley and Baltoro glacier region has revealed four spatially and temporally distinct metamorphic episodes. M1 sillimanite grade metamorphism in Hunza was a late Cretaceous event, probably caused by the accretion of the Kohistan arc to Asia. M2 was the major kyanite and sillimanite grade event during late Eocene—Oligocene crustal thickening and shortening, following India\|Asia collision. Numerous melting events resulted in the formation of crustal melt granites throughout the last 50Ma with multiple generations of dykes and very large scale crustal melting along the Baltoro monzogranite\|leucogranite ba tholith during the late Oligocene—early Miocene. M3 metamorphism was a high\| T , low\| p contact thermal metamorphism around the Baltoro granite. In Hunza, younger staurolite grade metamorphism has been dated by U\|Pb monazites at 16Ma, with the Sumayar leucogranite intruded at 9 5Ma cross\|cutting the metamorphic isograds. In the Baltoro region the youngest metamorphism, M4, is the sillimanite grade Dassu gneiss core complex dated by U\|Pb on monazites as late Miocene—Pliocene (5 4±0 25)Ma with Precambrian protolith zircon cores (1855±11)Ma. Numerous gem\|bearing pegmatite dykes cross\|cut these rocks and are thought to have been intruded within the last 2～3Ma. Structural mapping, combined with U\|Pb geochronology shows that major metamorphic events can be both long\|lasting (up to 20Ma) and very restrictive, both in time and space.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG （CO2, CH4 and N2O） emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest （4.126 Tg yr^-1） followed by N20 （0.265 Tg yr^-1） and CO2 （52.6 Tg yr^-1）. The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.

Factors influencing hybrid maize farmers' risk attitudes and their perceptions in Punjab Province,Pakistan

Hybrid maize farmers have to face diverse kinds of climate, biological, price and financial risks. Farmers＇ risk perceptions and risk attitudes are essential elements influencing farm operations and management decisions. However, this important issue has been overlooked in the contemporary studies and therefore there is a dearth of literature on this important issue. The present research is therefore, an attempt to fill this gap. This study aims to quantify hybrid maize farmers＇ perceptions of disastrous risks, their attitudes towards risk and to explore the impacts of various farm and farm household factors on farmers＇ risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The present study is conducted in four hybrid maize growing districts of Punjab Province, Pakistan, using cross-sectional data of 400 hybrid maize farmers. Risk matrix and equally likely certainty equivalent （ELCE） method are used to rank farmers＇ perceptions of four catastrophic risk sources including climate, biological, price and financial risks and to investigate farmers＇ risk aversion attitudes, respectively. Furthermore, probit regression is used to analyze the determinants affecting farmers＇ risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The results of the study showed that majority of farmers are risk averse in nature and perceive price, biological and climate to be potential sources of risks to their farm enterprise. In addition, analysis divulges that distance from farm to main market, off-farm income, location dummies for Sahiwal and Okara, age, maize farming experience, access to extension agent, significantly （either negatively or positively） influence farmers＇ risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The study delivers valuable insights for farmers, agricultural insurance sector, extension services researchers and agricultural policy makers about the local understanding of risks to hybrid maize crop in developing countries, like Pakistan, and have implications for research on farmers＇ adaptation to exposed risks.

Effect of Nitrogen on Yield and Oil Quality of Sunflower (<i>Helianthus Annuus</i>L.) Hybrids under Sub Humid Conditions of Pakistan

Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) has emerged as an economically important crop in Pakistan due to its significant share in vegetable oil production. The plant metabolic processes require protein to increase the vegetative, reproductive growth and yield of the crop. The protein is wholly dependent upon the amount of nitrogen fertilization available for plant use. A two-year field study was conducted in 2008 and 2009. The objective was to determine the effect of different nitrogen (N) levels (N1 = 0 kg·ha–1, N2 = 60 kg·ha–1, N3 = 120 kg·ha–1, N4 = 180 kg·ha–1 and N5 = 240 kg·ha–1) on three sunflower hybrids (Hysun-33, Hysun-38 and Poineer-64A93) in agro-climatic conditions of Gujranwala, a sub-humid region in the centre of the Punjab province of Pakistan. A randomized complete block design split plot experiment was set-up with cultivars in the main plots and N levels in the subplots. Results showed that Hysun-38 gave maximum TDM (15815 kg·ha–1) and maximum grain yield (3389 kg·ha–1), while minimum TDM (14640 kg·ha–1) and grain yield (3125 kg·ha–1) was observed in Hysun-33. Among different N rates evaluated, N4 gave maximum TDM (17890 kg·ha–1) and grain yield (3809 kg·ha–1) compared to the other N rates. The maximum oil content (46.2%) was observed in Hysun-38 without application of N fertilizer (N1), while the minimum oil content (40.6%) was observed from N5 treatment. In conclusion, the application of 180 kg·ha–1 N to Hysun-38 provided the best combination for good yield in sunflower crop under the prevailing sub-humid conditions of Pakistan.

An autoregressive integrated moving average model for short-term prediction of hepatitis C virus seropositivity among male volunteer blood donors in Karachi,Pakistan

AIM： To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus （HCV） seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.METHODS： Ninety-six months （1998-2005） data on HCV seropositive cases （1000-1 x month1） among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate （%） between the observed and predicted HCV seroprevalence was calculated. Finally, a fitted ARIMA model was used for short-term forecasts beyond the observed series.RESULTS： The goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA （2,1,7） model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. The forecasts by ARIMA for 91-96 mo closely followed the pattern of observed series for the same months, with mean monthly absolute forecast errors （%） over 6 mo of 6.5%. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed increasing tendency of HCV seropositivity with a mean ± SD HCV seroprevalence （1000^-1× month^-1） of 24.3 ±1.4 over the forecast interval.CONCLUSION： To curtail HCV spread, public health authorities need to educate communities and health care providers about HCV transmission routes based on known HCV epidemiology in Pakistan and its neighboring countries. Future research may focus on factors associated with hyperendemic levels of HCV infection.

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and genotype distribution inPakistan:Comprehensive review of recent data

Hepatitis C virus(HCV) is endemic in Pakistan and its burden is expected to increase in coming decades owing mainly to widespread use of unsafe medical procedures. The prevalence of HCV in Pakistan has previously been reviewed. However, the literature search conducted here revealed that at least 86 relevant studies have been produced since the publication of these systematic reviews. A revised updated analysis was therefore needed in order to integrate the fresh data. A systematic review of data published between 2010 and 2015 showed that HCV seroprevalence among the general adult Pakistani population is 6.8%, while active HCV infection was found in approximately 6% of the population. Studies included in this review have also shown extremely high HCV prevalence in rural and underdeveloped peri-urban areas(up to 25%), highlighting the need for an increased focus on this previously neglected socioeconomic stratum of the population. While a 2.45% seroprevalence among blood donors demands immediate measures to curtail the risk of transfusion transmitted HCV, a very high prevalence in patients attending hospitals with various non-liver disease related complaints(up to 30%) suggests a rise in the incidence of nosocomial HCV spread. HCV genotype 3a continues to be the most prevalent subtype infecting people in Pakistan(61.3%). However, recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of subtype 2a in certain geographical sub-regions within Pakistan. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh provinces, 2a was the second most prevalent genotype(17.3% and 11.3% respectively). While the changing frequency distribution of various genotypes demands an increased emphasis on research for novel therapeutic regimens, evidence of high nosocomial transmission calls for immediate measures aimed at ensuring safe medical practices.