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Dynamic Monitoring and Optimization of Fault Diagnosis of Photo Voltaic Solar Power System Using ANN and Memetic Algorithm 被引量:1
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作者 B. Ganeshprabu M. Geethanjali 《Circuits and Systems》 2016年第11期3531-3540,共11页
Most of the photo voltaic (PV) arrays often work in harsh outdoor environment, and undergo various faults, such as local material aging, shading, open circuit, short circuit and so on. The generation of these faults w... Most of the photo voltaic (PV) arrays often work in harsh outdoor environment, and undergo various faults, such as local material aging, shading, open circuit, short circuit and so on. The generation of these faults will reduce the power generation efficiency, and when a fault occurs in a PV model, the PV model and the systems connected to it are also damaged. In this paper, an on-line distributed monitoring system based on XBee wireless sensors network is designed to monitor the output current, voltage and irradiation of each PV module, and the temperature and the irradiation of the environment. A simulation PV module model is established, based on which some common faults are simulated and fault training samples are obtained. Finally, a memetic algorithm optimized Back Propagation ANN fault diagnosis model is built and trained by the fault samples data. Experiment result shows that the system can detect the common faults of PV array with high accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 photo voltaic (PV) Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
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Performance-Economic and Energy Loss Analysis of 80 KWp Grid Connected Roof Top Transformer Less Photovoltaic Power Plant
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作者 S. Sathish Kumar C. Nagarajan 《Circuits and Systems》 2016年第6期662-679,共18页
In India most part receives 4 - 7 kWh of solar radiation per square meter per day with 200 - 250 sunny days in a year. Tamilnadu state also receives the highest annual radiation in India. In this paper, the grid conne... In India most part receives 4 - 7 kWh of solar radiation per square meter per day with 200 - 250 sunny days in a year. Tamilnadu state also receives the highest annual radiation in India. In this paper, the grid connected photovoltaic plant has a peak power of 80 KWp supplies electricity requirement of GRT IET campus during day time (7 hrs) and reduces load demand and generates useful data for future implementation of such PV plant projects in the Tamilnadu region. Photovoltaic plant was installed in April 2015, monitored during 6 months, and the performance ratio and the various power losses (power electronics, temperature, soiling, internal, network, grid availability and interconnection) were calculated. The PV plant supplied 64,182.86 KWh to the grid from April to September 2015, ranging from 11,510.900 to 10,200.9 kWh. The final yield ranged from 143.886 (h/d) to 127.51 (y/d), reference yield ranged from 201.6 (h/d) to 155.31 (h/d) and performance ratio ranged from 71.3% to 82.1%, for a duration of six months, it had given a performance ratio of 83.82%, system efficiency was 4.16% and the capacity factor of GRT IET Campus for six months was 18.26%. Payback period in years = 9 years 4 months, energy saving per year = 204,400 KWh, cost reduction per year = 1,737,400, Indian rupee = 26,197.30 USD and total CO<sub>2</sub> reductions per year = 102,200 tons CO<sub>2</sub>/year. 展开更多
关键词 photo voltaic Dual MPPT Grid Connection Performance Analysis Energy Loss Analysis Economic Analysis CO2 Reduction Carbon Credit
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Optimal Extraction of Photovoltaic Model Parameters Using Gravitational Search Algorithm Approach
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作者 C. Saravanan K. Srinivasan 《Circuits and Systems》 2016年第11期3849-3861,共13页
Extraction of accurate Photo Voltaic (PV) model parameters is a challenging task for PV simulator developers. To mitigate this challenging task a novel approach using Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) for accurate ... Extraction of accurate Photo Voltaic (PV) model parameters is a challenging task for PV simulator developers. To mitigate this challenging task a novel approach using Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) for accurate extraction of PV model parameters is proposed in this paper. GSA is a population based heuristic optimization method which depends on the law of gravity and mass interactions. In this optimization method, the searcher agents are collection of masses which interact with each other using laws of gravity and motion of Newton. The developed PV model utilizes mathematical equations and is described through an equivalent circuit model comprising of a current source, a diode, a series resistor and a shunt resistor including the effect of changes in solar irradiation and ambient temperature. The optimal values of photo-current, diode ideality factor, series resistance and shunt resistance of the developed PV model are obtained by using GSA. The simulations of the characteristic curves of PV modules (SM55, ST36 and ST40) are carried out using MATLAB/Simulink environment. Results obtained using GSA are compared with Differential Evolution (DE), which shows that GSA based parameters are better optimal when compared to DE. 展开更多
关键词 GSA photo voltaic Parameter Extraction MATLAB/SIMULINK
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Ce-Co-doped BiFeO_3 multiferroic for optoelectronic and photovoltaic applications
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作者 Jyoti Sharma Deepak Basandrai A K Srivastava 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第11期383-388,共6页
The Ce-Co-doped BiFeO3 multiferroic, Bi(1-x)Ce)xFe(1-x)CoxO3(x = 0.00, 0.01, 0.03, and 0.05), has been prepared by a sol-gel auto-combustion method and analyzed through Raman spectroscopy, photoluminescence, an... The Ce-Co-doped BiFeO3 multiferroic, Bi(1-x)Ce)xFe(1-x)CoxO3(x = 0.00, 0.01, 0.03, and 0.05), has been prepared by a sol-gel auto-combustion method and analyzed through Raman spectroscopy, photoluminescence, and UV-visible spectroscopy. We have observed an anomalous intensity of the second-order Raman mode at - 1260 cm^-1 in pure BFO and suppressed intensity in doped samples, which indicates the presence of spin two-phonon coupling in these samples.The photoluminescence spectra show reduction in the intensity of emission with the increasing dopant concentration, which indicates the high charge separation efficiency. A sharp absorption with three charge transfer(C-T) and two d-d transitions are shown by UV-visible spectra in the visible region. The band gap of BiFeO3(BFO) is decreasing with increasing dopant concentrations and the materials are suitable for photovoltaic applications. 展开更多
关键词 Raman and UV-visible spectroscopy photoluminescence and photo-voltaic applications
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Power Quality Issues Concerning Photovoltaic Generation in Distribution Grids
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作者 Jaan Niitsoo Marek Jarkovoi +2 位作者 Paul Taklaja Joni Klüss Ivo Palu 《Smart Grid and Renewable Energy》 2015年第6期148-163,共16页
Unregulated utilization of renewable generation including residential photovoltaic (PV) systems can have a significant impact on load characteristics in distribution networks. For improving PV generation capabilities,... Unregulated utilization of renewable generation including residential photovoltaic (PV) systems can have a significant impact on load characteristics in distribution networks. For improving PV generation capabilities, power quality aspects have to be coordinated with present load characteristics. This paper discusses the harmonic content of PV generation and the influence to power quality indicators in residential distribution networks. PV generation measurement results including current harmonic amplitude and phase angle values are presented. Results of different modelling scenarios are analysed and a simplified model of harmonics in PVs is offered. The results of the study showed a moderate additional harmonic distortion in residential load current and voltage distortion at the substation’s busbar when PVs were added. Novelty of the paper is that harmonic current values at higher orders are presented and analysed. The results pointed out in this paper could be further used for modelling the actual harmonic loads of the PVs in distribution networks. 展开更多
关键词 Current Measurement LOAD Modelling photo voltaic POWER Quality POWER System HARMONICS
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Power Quality Issues Concerning Photovoltaic Generation and Electrical Vehicle Loads in Distribution Grids
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作者 Jaan Niitsoo Paul Taklaja +1 位作者 Ivo Palu Joni Klüss 《Smart Grid and Renewable Energy》 2015年第6期164-177,共14页
The high utilization level of renewable generation including residential photovoltaic (PV) systems together with the uncontrolled charging of electric vehicles (EVs) can have a significant impact on load characteristi... The high utilization level of renewable generation including residential photovoltaic (PV) systems together with the uncontrolled charging of electric vehicles (EVs) can have a significant impact on load characteristics in distribution networks. Harmonic content of PV generation, EV charging loads, and their influence on power quality indicators in residential distribution networks are discussed in this paper. For investigating likely power quality scenarios, PV generation and EV charging measurement results including current harmonic amplitude and phase angle values are used and compared with present load characteristics. Different modelling scenarios are analysed and a simplified model of harmonics in PVs and EVs is offered. The results of the study show moderate additional harmonic distortion in residential load current and voltage distortion at the substation’s busbar when PV generation and EV loading are added. The scenarios presented in this paper can be further used for modelling the actual harmonic loads of the PVs and EVs in distribution networks. 展开更多
关键词 Current Measurement Distributed Generation Electric VEHICLES Load Modelling photo voltaic POWER Quality POWER System HARMONICS
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Reverse-Osmosis Desalination of Water Powered by Photo-Voltaic Modules
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作者 Ammar Alkhatib 《Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering》 2014年第1期22-29,共8页
The rising of the world’s population leads automatically to the rising of water demand. As a consequence the lack of drinking water increases. Currently, approximately 1.2 billion people globally (one-sixth of the wo... The rising of the world’s population leads automatically to the rising of water demand. As a consequence the lack of drinking water increases. Currently, approximately 1.2 billion people globally (one-sixth of the world’s population) do not have access to adequate clean water. Since a large part of the world’s population is concentrated in coastal areas, the desalination of seawater seems to be a promising solution, especially in our Arab world. An innovative stand-alone solar desalination system could be used to produce drinking water from seawater or any brackish water sources. The great advantage of such a system is that it combines efficient desalination technology, reverse osmosis, with a renewable energy source;the main goal is improving the technical feasibility of such systems. There are many advantages of this coupling with RE resources;first of all we separate the drinking water from the electricity grid and its faults, save the burning fossil fuel and its emissions and can provide fresh water to remote communities that do not have sufficient traditional energy sources;but as we see in the thesis we don’t have economic benefit;because these projects depend on the electricity cost in each country and its location and its solar specifications. We design and implement a small laboratorial model for PV-RO (Photo-Voltaic Powered Reverse Osmosis) to recognize the its performance for seawater and brackish water;many of the problems are interrupted such as embargo on Syria;so we see this project has to be done according to affordable local potentialities, but we crave to keep the principle of operation, so we make it for the tap water which close to brackish. 展开更多
关键词 photo-voltaic DESALINATION REVERSE Osmosis
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新型高效光伏组件技术对比及经济性分析 被引量:1
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作者 王大才 曾杰 陈卫鹏 《水利水电快报》 2023年第11期95-98,共4页
为研究新型光伏组件技术在光伏项目上的应用及其经济性,介绍了新型高效光伏组件的发展,对比了N型TOPCon、HIT、IBC电池组件优劣,重点分析了新型高效N型TOPCon组件发电量、度电成本、等效利用小时数、全投资收益率等方面,并基于海南100 M... 为研究新型光伏组件技术在光伏项目上的应用及其经济性,介绍了新型高效光伏组件的发展,对比了N型TOPCon、HIT、IBC电池组件优劣,重点分析了新型高效N型TOPCon组件发电量、度电成本、等效利用小时数、全投资收益率等方面,并基于海南100 MW光伏项目工程进行经济性分析,结果表明:采用N型TOPCon组件设计方案项目,项目发电量、全投资收益率等主要经济指标均有较大提高,能有效提升项目价值;新型组件技术加速迭代,有望通过技术进步快速实现能效提升以及成本下降,进入发展快车道。 展开更多
关键词 光伏电池 N型TOPCon组件 HIT IBC
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关于甘肃省采煤沉陷区发展光伏项目的构想 被引量:1
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作者 李旭东 《电工技术》 2023年第12期65-67,71,共4页
我国作为最大的煤矿大国,采煤沉陷区发展光伏项目有着重大的意义,在“碳达峰、碳中和”的国家战略目标背景下,甘肃省加快推进采煤沉陷区综合治理的战略布局。利用采煤沉陷区发展光伏发电综合治理项目,以“光伏+生态治理”模式治理采煤... 我国作为最大的煤矿大国,采煤沉陷区发展光伏项目有着重大的意义,在“碳达峰、碳中和”的国家战略目标背景下,甘肃省加快推进采煤沉陷区综合治理的战略布局。利用采煤沉陷区发展光伏发电综合治理项目,以“光伏+生态治理”模式治理采煤沉陷区土地,不仅可以有效利用生态植被脆弱的闲置土地,还可以利用太阳能清洁能源改善当地能源结构,推动资源型城市的转型发展,达到多方面共赢的效果。 展开更多
关键词 碳达峰、碳中和 新能源发电 采煤沉陷区 光伏+ 生态治理
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并网光伏逆变器的选型与应用
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作者 王伟 《通信电源技术》 2023年第20期67-69,共3页
为实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的目标,光伏发电作为新能源产业的重要一环,将迎来高速发展,并成为推动新能源发展的重要力量。随着技术的不断进步,光伏发电系统和光伏电站的类型日益多样化,并网光伏逆变器的种类和应用技术也在不断丰富... 为实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的目标,光伏发电作为新能源产业的重要一环,将迎来高速发展,并成为推动新能源发展的重要力量。随着技术的不断进步,光伏发电系统和光伏电站的类型日益多样化,并网光伏逆变器的种类和应用技术也在不断丰富。文章主要分析了并网光伏逆变器的选型对光伏系统成本、效率和运行的影响,为实际应用提供指导。 展开更多
关键词 并网光伏 逆变器选型 系统效率 系统成本
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计及P2H的电-热互联综合能源系统概率能量流分析 被引量:38
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作者 孙娟 卫志农 +3 位作者 孙国强 陈胜 臧海祥 陈霜 《电力自动化设备》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第6期62-68,共7页
电转热(P2H)技术可以平抑分布式可再生能源发电功率波动,促进光伏发电的消纳与电-热互联综合能源系统的协同运行。建立了含光伏的电-热互联综合能源系统概率能量流模型,采用Nataf变换对相关非正态的光伏输入随机变量进行抽样,并与拉丁... 电转热(P2H)技术可以平抑分布式可再生能源发电功率波动,促进光伏发电的消纳与电-热互联综合能源系统的协同运行。建立了含光伏的电-热互联综合能源系统概率能量流模型,采用Nataf变换对相关非正态的光伏输入随机变量进行抽样,并与拉丁超立方采样相结合,定量评估P2H对电力系统和热力系统概率能量流的影响。实际巴厘岛的算例分析结果验证了所建立模型的有效性。在含光伏的电-热互联综合能源系统中,P2H可促进分布式可再生光伏的消纳,并有效增强系统的安全性。 展开更多
关键词 电-热互联综合能源系统 电转热技术 概率能量流 光伏发电 拉丁超立方采样
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交直流型微电网中光伏逆变器并联控制策略 被引量:17
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作者 袁建华 高厚磊 +4 位作者 高峰 吴疆 刘博 季笑庆 王云波 《电网技术》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2012年第8期19-23,共5页
针对光伏电源和储能装置主要配置在直流网,交流网在离网时需克服光伏电源出力波动的问题,提出一种微电网离网模式下的光伏逆变器并联控制策略:直流网侧逆变器为主逆变器,采用恒定电压幅值以及P-f下垂法为交流网提供全部无功及部分有功功... 针对光伏电源和储能装置主要配置在直流网,交流网在离网时需克服光伏电源出力波动的问题,提出一种微电网离网模式下的光伏逆变器并联控制策略:直流网侧逆变器为主逆变器,采用恒定电压幅值以及P-f下垂法为交流网提供全部无功及部分有功功率;少数较小容量的光伏逆变器为从逆变器,从逆变器不提供无功,采用自适应下垂系数法输出与实时最大功率匹配的有功功率,既维持交流网电压稳定,又充分利用光伏发电。基于MATLAB的系统模型仿真证明了该方法的正确性与可行性。 展开更多
关键词 交直流 微电网 光伏逆变器 控制策略 最大功率
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关于筹建青海大规模光伏发电与水电结合的国家综合能源基地的建议(续) 被引量:12
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作者 严陆光 周孝信 +11 位作者 张楚汉 费维扬 夏训诚 周凤起 胡学浩 许洪华 黄常纲 刘峰松 王澍 马吉明 王保国 彭燕昌 《电工电能新技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2011年第1期8-11,共4页
中国科学院学部组织有关院士与专家进行了青海省大规模光伏发电与水电结合的国家综合能源基地的研究。本文论述了光伏与水电结合综合能源基地的重要意义;在青海筹建基地的已有基础和特殊意义;面临的问题与所需采取的措施等,提出了筹建... 中国科学院学部组织有关院士与专家进行了青海省大规模光伏发电与水电结合的国家综合能源基地的研究。本文论述了光伏与水电结合综合能源基地的重要意义;在青海筹建基地的已有基础和特殊意义;面临的问题与所需采取的措施等,提出了筹建青海光伏与水电结合的国家综合能源基地的建议。 展开更多
关键词 青海省 光伏发电 水电 国家综合能源基地
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分布式光伏发电与冷热源耦合系统探讨 被引量:26
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作者 王晨光 龚光彩 +1 位作者 苏欢 王炳梅 《节能技术》 CAS 2012年第2期145-150,共6页
提出并探讨了一种分布式光伏发电与建筑冷热源相耦合的系统[1-2]。该系统是一种具有良好节能效果的微电网系统,其通过分布式光伏电源来驱动建筑冷热源设备,充分利用了太阳能这种可再生能源,不仅保证了城市电网的稳定性和安全性,缓解了... 提出并探讨了一种分布式光伏发电与建筑冷热源相耦合的系统[1-2]。该系统是一种具有良好节能效果的微电网系统,其通过分布式光伏电源来驱动建筑冷热源设备,充分利用了太阳能这种可再生能源,不仅保证了城市电网的稳定性和安全性,缓解了城市电网的用电压力,同时也降低了CO2排放量。通过该系统的研究和应用,将进一步提高光伏建筑一体化的程度。 展开更多
关键词 分布式光伏发电 建筑冷热源 微电网 光伏建筑一体化
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不可调度式单相光伏并网装置的平波电容容量的选择 被引量:9
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作者 沈玉梁 苏建徽 +1 位作者 赵为 余世杰 《太阳能学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2003年第5期655-658,共4页
本文分析了全桥式不可调度式单相光伏并网装置的主功率器件的单极性切换模式中的电流及能量流向规律,并据此提出了太阳电池两端平波电容的容量选择原则。
关键词 不可调度式单相光伏并网 单电压极性 平波电容
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基于模拟退火粒子群优化的光伏多峰最大功率跟踪算法 被引量:5
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作者 杨洁 蒋林 +2 位作者 蹇清平 张勇军 李永德 《计算机应用》 CSCD 北大核心 2014年第A01期330-333,共4页
在光伏发电系统多峰最大功率跟踪中,针对采用干扰观察法跟踪时间长和粒子群优化算法扰动较大等问题,设计了基于模拟退火粒子群优化(SA-PSO)的最大功率跟踪算法。该方法引入粒子速度收缩因子和最优粒子的轮盘赌策略的扰动,有效避免陷入... 在光伏发电系统多峰最大功率跟踪中,针对采用干扰观察法跟踪时间长和粒子群优化算法扰动较大等问题,设计了基于模拟退火粒子群优化(SA-PSO)的最大功率跟踪算法。该方法引入粒子速度收缩因子和最优粒子的轮盘赌策略的扰动,有效避免陷入局部最大功率并快速跟踪到全局最大功率,保证了光伏发电系统在光照强度和温度变化时的动态响应和稳态精度。在相同条件下,对3种光伏发电系统最大功率跟踪方法进行仿真对比分析,其结果表明所提方法具有更好的实时性和鲁棒性。 展开更多
关键词 光伏 多峰 最大功率跟踪 模拟退火粒子群优化
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聚光内球面太阳能电池 被引量:3
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作者 徐毅 宋兆丽 +3 位作者 徐政 贯丛 刘国松 姜义 《光子学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第7期782-786,共5页
为提高阳光利用率和光电转换率,研究了聚光内球面太阳能电池的主要性能,设计了聚光内球面太阳能电池的结构.通过菲涅耳聚光镜将太阳光聚光后射入内表面制备了多晶硅光伏电池的球腔内,在内球面上实现了聚光光伏效应.利用腔内光子气体模... 为提高阳光利用率和光电转换率,研究了聚光内球面太阳能电池的主要性能,设计了聚光内球面太阳能电池的结构.通过菲涅耳聚光镜将太阳光聚光后射入内表面制备了多晶硅光伏电池的球腔内,在内球面上实现了聚光光伏效应.利用腔内光子气体模型分析计算了内球面上的光照强度,提出硅光电池上的最佳光强概念,计算了在内球面多晶硅电池半导体层厚10μm时最佳聚光倍数为18、层厚5μm时最佳聚光倍数为9.应用有限元分析法讨论了聚光内球面太阳能电池系统的温度,在AM1.5,8倍聚光条件下,光伏电池最高温度353.15K,处于正常工作范围.采用主动风冷或水冷方法提高对流换热系数可大大降低光伏电池温度,稳定工作效率.通过分析硅光电池效率制约因素,设计了内球面光伏电池的优化结构,填充因子可达0.85,阳光辐射功率为800mW/cm2时,聚光内球面太阳能电池效率将超过33%. 展开更多
关键词 聚光光伏 腔内光强 内球面光伏电池 硅光电池效率 多晶黑硅
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聚光光伏产业发展现状浅析 被引量:3
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作者 欧惠 徐顺建 +2 位作者 肖宗湖 罗永平 钟炜 《电源技术》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第12期2492-2494,共3页
介绍了聚光光伏技术的研究及应用现状,综述了国内外在聚光光伏方面的应用现状,比较了聚光光伏发电技术与传统光伏硅发电技术,对聚光光伏产业发展前景进行了展望,建议政府和相关企业抓住机遇,整合资源,发挥聚光光伏高效率和低成本等优势... 介绍了聚光光伏技术的研究及应用现状,综述了国内外在聚光光伏方面的应用现状,比较了聚光光伏发电技术与传统光伏硅发电技术,对聚光光伏产业发展前景进行了展望,建议政府和相关企业抓住机遇,整合资源,发挥聚光光伏高效率和低成本等优势,以促进其产业化进程。 展开更多
关键词 聚光光伏技术 多结聚光电池 应用
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改进神经网络模型在光伏发电预测中的应用 被引量:5
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作者 胡克用 李云龙 +2 位作者 江霞 李静 胡则辉 《计算机系统应用》 2019年第12期37-46,共10页
针对传统的BP神经网络模型在光伏发电功率预测中,存在着的预测精度不高、收敛速度较慢的弊端,本文提出一种改进型的BP神经网络模型,运用增加动量项以及自适应选取最佳隐含层的方法来改进传统BP模型的缺陷.文中首先进行了各类气象因素对... 针对传统的BP神经网络模型在光伏发电功率预测中,存在着的预测精度不高、收敛速度较慢的弊端,本文提出一种改进型的BP神经网络模型,运用增加动量项以及自适应选取最佳隐含层的方法来改进传统BP模型的缺陷.文中首先进行了各类气象因素对于光伏发电功率输出影响的相关性分析,提取出最能影响光伏发电功率的6个气象因素,作为网络模型的输入,然后建立了改进型的BP网络模型,结合光伏功率输出的历史数据,来进行发电数据的直接预测;最后根据不同气候类型下的预测结果,分析并验证了采用该模型进行功率预测的可行性和有效性. 展开更多
关键词 光伏发电 相关性分析 气象因素 神经网络
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基于气象相似日选取与提升回归树的光伏发电短期功率预测 被引量:5
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作者 魏联滨 王彬 +1 位作者 王莹 张海峰 《电子器件》 CAS 北大核心 2022年第1期183-188,共6页
针对气象条件不稳定引起的光伏发电出力波动性和间歇性,提出基于气象相似日选取和提升回归树的光伏发电短期功率预测方法。本方法采用熵值法计算影响光伏发电功率各种气象因素的权重,采用动态时间弯曲距离计算历史日与预测日各气象因素... 针对气象条件不稳定引起的光伏发电出力波动性和间歇性,提出基于气象相似日选取和提升回归树的光伏发电短期功率预测方法。本方法采用熵值法计算影响光伏发电功率各种气象因素的权重,采用动态时间弯曲距离计算历史日与预测日各气象因素相似度。对于每一个预测日的光伏发电功率预测,以历史相似日的气象数据和发电功率数据作为训练样本,采用提升回归树构建光伏发电短期功率预测模型,能够明显提升预测精度。以某光伏电站为研究对象,考虑气象相似日的提升回归树算法与回归树、提升回归树算法对比表明,光伏发电短期功率预测准确度有较大幅度提升。 展开更多
关键词 光伏 发电功率 熵值法 动态时间弯曲距离 气象相似日 提升回归树
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