Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whe...Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whenever there is an imperfect correlation between returns risk is reduced by maintaining only a portion of wealth in any asset, or by selecting a portfolio according to expected returns and correlations between returns. The major improvement of the portfolio approaches over prior received theory is the incorporation of 1) the riskiness of an asset and 2) the addition from investing in any asset. The theme of this paper is to discuss how to propose a new mathematical model like that provided by Markowitz, which helps in choosing a nearly perfect portfolio and an efficient input/output. Besides applying this model to reality, the researcher uses game theory, stochastic and linear programming to provide the model proposed and then uses this model to select a perfect portfolio in the Cairo Stock Exchange. The results are fruitful and the researcher considers this model a new contribution to previous models.展开更多
Pattern matching method is one of the classic classifications of existing online portfolio selection strategies. This article aims to study the key aspects of this method—measurement of similarity and selection of si...Pattern matching method is one of the classic classifications of existing online portfolio selection strategies. This article aims to study the key aspects of this method—measurement of similarity and selection of similarity sets, and proposes a Portfolio Selection Method based on Pattern Matching with Dual Information of Direction and Distance (PMDI). By studying different combination methods of indicators such as Euclidean distance, Chebyshev distance, and correlation coefficient, important information such as direction and distance in stock historical price information is extracted, thereby filtering out the similarity set required for pattern matching based investment portfolio selection algorithms. A large number of experiments conducted on two datasets of real stock markets have shown that PMDI outperforms other algorithms in balancing income and risk. Therefore, it is suitable for the financial environment in the real world.展开更多
In recent years, digital investment portfolios have become a significant area of interest in the field of machine learning. To tackle the issue of neglecting the momentum effect in risk asset prices within the follow-...In recent years, digital investment portfolios have become a significant area of interest in the field of machine learning. To tackle the issue of neglecting the momentum effect in risk asset prices within the follow-the-winner strategy and to evaluate the significance of this effect, a novel measure of risk asset price momentum trend is introduced for online investment portfolio research. Firstly, a novel approach is introduced to quantify the momentum trend effect, which is determined by the product of the slope of the linear regression model and the absolute value of the linear correlation coefficient. Secondly, a new investment portfolio optimization problem is established based on the prediction of future returns. Thirdly, the Lagrange multiplier method is used to obtain the analytical solution of the optimization model, and the soft projection optimization algorithm is used to map the analytical solution to obtain the investment portfolio of the model. Finally, experiments are conducted on five benchmark datasets and compared with popular investment portfolio algorithms. The empirical findings indicate that the algorithm we are introduced is capable of generating higher investment returns, thereby establishing its efficacy for the management of the online investment portfolios.展开更多
Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of...Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of the correlation strategy for portfolios based on the stock market in Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,the Middle East and North Africa,and Latin America from 2000 to 2016.Our strategy is as follows.We develop five portfolios based on the average unconditional correlation between domestic and foreign assets from 2000 to 2016.This yields five regional portfolios based on low to high correlations.In the presence of selected economic and financial conditions,long-term diversification gains for each regional portfolio are evaluated using a panel cointegration-based testing method.Consistent across all portfolios and regions,our key cointegration results suggest that selecting a low-correlated portfolio to maximize diversification gains does not necessarily result in long-term diversification gains.Our empirical method,which also permits the estimation of cointegrating regressions,provides the opportunity to evaluate the impact of oil prices,U.S.stock market fluctuations,and investor sentiments on regional portfolios,as well as to hedge against these fluctuations.Finally,we extend our data to cover the years 2017–2022 and find that our main findings are robust.展开更多
In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and...In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and jump ambiguity occurring in the traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency market into a single framework.We reach the following conclusions in both markets:first,price diffusion and jump ambiguity mainly determine detection-error probability;second,optimal choice is more significantly affected by price diffusion ambiguity than by jump ambiguity,and trivially affected by volatility diffusion ambiguity.In addition,investors tend to be more aggressive in a stable market than in a volatile one.Next,given a larger volatility jump size,investors tend to increase their portfolio during downward price jumps and decrease it during upward price jumps.Finally,the welfare loss caused by price diffusion ambiguity is more pronounced than that caused by jump ambiguity in an incomplete market.These findings enrich the extant literature on effects of ambiguity on the traditional stock market and the evolving cryptocurrency market.The results have implications for both investors and regulators.展开更多
Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates,which may result in poor out-of-sample performance.In particular,the estimates may suffer when the number of assets con...Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates,which may result in poor out-of-sample performance.In particular,the estimates may suffer when the number of assets considered is high and the length of the return time series is not sufficiently long.This is precisely the case in the cryptocur-rency market,where there are hundreds of crypto assets that have been traded for a few years.We propose enhancing the mean-variance(MV)model with a pre-selection stage that uses a prototype-based clustering algorithm to reduce the number of crypto assets considered at each investment period.In the pre-selection stage,we run a prototype-based clustering algorithm where the assets are described by variables representing the profit-risk duality.The prototypes of the clustering partition are auto-matically examined and the one that best suits our risk-aversion preference is selected.We then run the MV portfolio optimization with the crypto assets of the selected cluster.The proposed approach is tested for a period of 17 months in the whole cryp-tocurrency market and two selections of the cryptocurrencies with the higher market capitalization(175 and 250 cryptos).We compare the results against three methods applied to the whole market:classic MV,risk parity,and hierarchical risk parity methods.We also compare our results with those from investing in the market index CCI30.The simulation results generally favor our proposal in terms of profit and risk-profit financial indicators.This result reaffirms the convenience of using machine learning methods to guide financial investments in complex and highly-volatile environments such as the cryptocurrency market.展开更多
Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still ...Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still an improvement for the portrayal of their unique properties in portfolio problems.In this paper,an intelligent option portfolio model is developed that allows selling options contracts to earn option fees and considers the high leverage of options in the market.Deep learning methods are used to predict the forward price of the underlying asset,making the model smarter.It can find an optimal option portfolio that maximizes the final wealth among the call and put options with multiple strike prices.We use the duality theory to analyze the marginal contribution of initial assets,risk tolerance limit,and portfolio leverage limit for the final wealth.The leverage limit of the option portfolio has a significant impact on the return.To satisfy the investors with different risk preferences,we also give the conditions for the option portfolio to gain a risk-free return and replace the Conditional Value-at-Risk.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the intelligent option portfolio model obtains a satisfactory out-of-sample return,which is significantly positively correlated with the volatility of the underlying asset and negatively correlated with the forecast error of the forward price.The risk-free option model is effective in achieving the goal of no drawdown and gaining satisfactory returns.Investors can adjust the balance point between returns and risks according to their risk preference.展开更多
The current portfolio model for property-liability insurance company is only single period that can not meet the practical demands of portfolio management, and the purpose of this paper is to develop a multiperiod mod...The current portfolio model for property-liability insurance company is only single period that can not meet the practical demands of portfolio management, and the purpose of this paper is to develop a multiperiod model for its portfolio problem. The model is a multistage stochastic programming which considers transaction costs, cash flow between time periods, and the matching of asset and liability; it does not depend on the assumption for normality of return distribution. Additionally, an investment constraint is added. The numerical example manifests that the multiperiod model can more effectively assist the property-liability insurer to determine the optimal composition of insurance and investment portfolio and outperforms the single period one.展开更多
The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS) is an important tool to deal with uncertain and vague information.In equipment system portfolio selection, the index attribute of the equipment system may not be expressed by precise data;i...The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS) is an important tool to deal with uncertain and vague information.In equipment system portfolio selection, the index attribute of the equipment system may not be expressed by precise data;it is usually described by qualitative information and expressed as multiple possible values.We propose a method of equipment system portfolio selection under hesitant fuzzy environment.The hesitant fuzzy element(HFE) is used to describe the index and attribute values of the equipment system.The hesitation degree of HFEs measures the uncertainty of the criterion data of the equipment system.The hesitant fuzzy grey relational analysis(GRA) method is used to evaluate the score of the equipment system, and the improved HFE distance measure is used to fully consider the influence of hesitation degree on the grey correlation degree.Based on the score and hesitation degree of the equipment system,two portfolio selection models of the equipment system and an equipment system portfolio selection case is given to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the method.展开更多
Portfolio assessment is considered as one of the most beneficial assessments in English teaching.However this effective assessment is neglected in college EFL writing.This paper aims to find out whether portfolio asse...Portfolio assessment is considered as one of the most beneficial assessments in English teaching.However this effective assessment is neglected in college EFL writing.This paper aims to find out whether portfolio assessment can be used in English writing class effectively and describe the implement of this assessment.展开更多
This paper briefs the basic objective of pursuing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), puts forward a thinking about the scope and three modes of RPS-implementation in China and enumerates other possible measures, such...This paper briefs the basic objective of pursuing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), puts forward a thinking about the scope and three modes of RPS-implementation in China and enumerates other possible measures, such as public bidding on concession, exemption from value-added tax, to promote wind power exploitation and development.展开更多
文摘Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whenever there is an imperfect correlation between returns risk is reduced by maintaining only a portion of wealth in any asset, or by selecting a portfolio according to expected returns and correlations between returns. The major improvement of the portfolio approaches over prior received theory is the incorporation of 1) the riskiness of an asset and 2) the addition from investing in any asset. The theme of this paper is to discuss how to propose a new mathematical model like that provided by Markowitz, which helps in choosing a nearly perfect portfolio and an efficient input/output. Besides applying this model to reality, the researcher uses game theory, stochastic and linear programming to provide the model proposed and then uses this model to select a perfect portfolio in the Cairo Stock Exchange. The results are fruitful and the researcher considers this model a new contribution to previous models.
文摘Pattern matching method is one of the classic classifications of existing online portfolio selection strategies. This article aims to study the key aspects of this method—measurement of similarity and selection of similarity sets, and proposes a Portfolio Selection Method based on Pattern Matching with Dual Information of Direction and Distance (PMDI). By studying different combination methods of indicators such as Euclidean distance, Chebyshev distance, and correlation coefficient, important information such as direction and distance in stock historical price information is extracted, thereby filtering out the similarity set required for pattern matching based investment portfolio selection algorithms. A large number of experiments conducted on two datasets of real stock markets have shown that PMDI outperforms other algorithms in balancing income and risk. Therefore, it is suitable for the financial environment in the real world.
文摘In recent years, digital investment portfolios have become a significant area of interest in the field of machine learning. To tackle the issue of neglecting the momentum effect in risk asset prices within the follow-the-winner strategy and to evaluate the significance of this effect, a novel measure of risk asset price momentum trend is introduced for online investment portfolio research. Firstly, a novel approach is introduced to quantify the momentum trend effect, which is determined by the product of the slope of the linear regression model and the absolute value of the linear correlation coefficient. Secondly, a new investment portfolio optimization problem is established based on the prediction of future returns. Thirdly, the Lagrange multiplier method is used to obtain the analytical solution of the optimization model, and the soft projection optimization algorithm is used to map the analytical solution to obtain the investment portfolio of the model. Finally, experiments are conducted on five benchmark datasets and compared with popular investment portfolio algorithms. The empirical findings indicate that the algorithm we are introduced is capable of generating higher investment returns, thereby establishing its efficacy for the management of the online investment portfolios.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72104075,71850012,72274056)the National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences Fund of China(No.19AZD014),Natural Science Foundation Project of Hunan Province(No.2022JJ40106)the Hunan University Youth Talent Program.
文摘Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of the correlation strategy for portfolios based on the stock market in Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,the Middle East and North Africa,and Latin America from 2000 to 2016.Our strategy is as follows.We develop five portfolios based on the average unconditional correlation between domestic and foreign assets from 2000 to 2016.This yields five regional portfolios based on low to high correlations.In the presence of selected economic and financial conditions,long-term diversification gains for each regional portfolio are evaluated using a panel cointegration-based testing method.Consistent across all portfolios and regions,our key cointegration results suggest that selecting a low-correlated portfolio to maximize diversification gains does not necessarily result in long-term diversification gains.Our empirical method,which also permits the estimation of cointegrating regressions,provides the opportunity to evaluate the impact of oil prices,U.S.stock market fluctuations,and investor sentiments on regional portfolios,as well as to hedge against these fluctuations.Finally,we extend our data to cover the years 2017–2022 and find that our main findings are robust.
基金support from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(22D110913)Jingzhou Yan gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the National Social Science Foundation Youth Project(21CTJ013)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(23NSFSC2796)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Postdoctoral Research Foundation of Sichuan University(Skbsh2202-18).
文摘In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and jump ambiguity occurring in the traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency market into a single framework.We reach the following conclusions in both markets:first,price diffusion and jump ambiguity mainly determine detection-error probability;second,optimal choice is more significantly affected by price diffusion ambiguity than by jump ambiguity,and trivially affected by volatility diffusion ambiguity.In addition,investors tend to be more aggressive in a stable market than in a volatile one.Next,given a larger volatility jump size,investors tend to increase their portfolio during downward price jumps and decrease it during upward price jumps.Finally,the welfare loss caused by price diffusion ambiguity is more pronounced than that caused by jump ambiguity in an incomplete market.These findings enrich the extant literature on effects of ambiguity on the traditional stock market and the evolving cryptocurrency market.The results have implications for both investors and regulators.
基金supported by the European Union’s H2020 Coordination and Support Actions CA19130 under Grant Agreement Period 2.
文摘Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates,which may result in poor out-of-sample performance.In particular,the estimates may suffer when the number of assets considered is high and the length of the return time series is not sufficiently long.This is precisely the case in the cryptocur-rency market,where there are hundreds of crypto assets that have been traded for a few years.We propose enhancing the mean-variance(MV)model with a pre-selection stage that uses a prototype-based clustering algorithm to reduce the number of crypto assets considered at each investment period.In the pre-selection stage,we run a prototype-based clustering algorithm where the assets are described by variables representing the profit-risk duality.The prototypes of the clustering partition are auto-matically examined and the one that best suits our risk-aversion preference is selected.We then run the MV portfolio optimization with the crypto assets of the selected cluster.The proposed approach is tested for a period of 17 months in the whole cryp-tocurrency market and two selections of the cryptocurrencies with the higher market capitalization(175 and 250 cryptos).We compare the results against three methods applied to the whole market:classic MV,risk parity,and hierarchical risk parity methods.We also compare our results with those from investing in the market index CCI30.The simulation results generally favor our proposal in terms of profit and risk-profit financial indicators.This result reaffirms the convenience of using machine learning methods to guide financial investments in complex and highly-volatile environments such as the cryptocurrency market.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11631013,11571271,11971372).
文摘Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still an improvement for the portrayal of their unique properties in portfolio problems.In this paper,an intelligent option portfolio model is developed that allows selling options contracts to earn option fees and considers the high leverage of options in the market.Deep learning methods are used to predict the forward price of the underlying asset,making the model smarter.It can find an optimal option portfolio that maximizes the final wealth among the call and put options with multiple strike prices.We use the duality theory to analyze the marginal contribution of initial assets,risk tolerance limit,and portfolio leverage limit for the final wealth.The leverage limit of the option portfolio has a significant impact on the return.To satisfy the investors with different risk preferences,we also give the conditions for the option portfolio to gain a risk-free return and replace the Conditional Value-at-Risk.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the intelligent option portfolio model obtains a satisfactory out-of-sample return,which is significantly positively correlated with the volatility of the underlying asset and negatively correlated with the forecast error of the forward price.The risk-free option model is effective in achieving the goal of no drawdown and gaining satisfactory returns.Investors can adjust the balance point between returns and risks according to their risk preference.
文摘The current portfolio model for property-liability insurance company is only single period that can not meet the practical demands of portfolio management, and the purpose of this paper is to develop a multiperiod model for its portfolio problem. The model is a multistage stochastic programming which considers transaction costs, cash flow between time periods, and the matching of asset and liability; it does not depend on the assumption for normality of return distribution. Additionally, an investment constraint is added. The numerical example manifests that the multiperiod model can more effectively assist the property-liability insurer to determine the optimal composition of insurance and investment portfolio and outperforms the single period one.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (7190121471690233)。
文摘The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS) is an important tool to deal with uncertain and vague information.In equipment system portfolio selection, the index attribute of the equipment system may not be expressed by precise data;it is usually described by qualitative information and expressed as multiple possible values.We propose a method of equipment system portfolio selection under hesitant fuzzy environment.The hesitant fuzzy element(HFE) is used to describe the index and attribute values of the equipment system.The hesitation degree of HFEs measures the uncertainty of the criterion data of the equipment system.The hesitant fuzzy grey relational analysis(GRA) method is used to evaluate the score of the equipment system, and the improved HFE distance measure is used to fully consider the influence of hesitation degree on the grey correlation degree.Based on the score and hesitation degree of the equipment system,two portfolio selection models of the equipment system and an equipment system portfolio selection case is given to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the method.
文摘Portfolio assessment is considered as one of the most beneficial assessments in English teaching.However this effective assessment is neglected in college EFL writing.This paper aims to find out whether portfolio assessment can be used in English writing class effectively and describe the implement of this assessment.
文摘This paper briefs the basic objective of pursuing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), puts forward a thinking about the scope and three modes of RPS-implementation in China and enumerates other possible measures, such as public bidding on concession, exemption from value-added tax, to promote wind power exploitation and development.
