Following a thorough examination and appraisal by the Awards jury and after ratification by the CAS President’s Working Conference, a total of 15 R&D projects were granted special-grade prizes and 13 first-grade ...Following a thorough examination and appraisal by the Awards jury and after ratification by the CAS President’s Working Conference, a total of 15 R&D projects were granted special-grade prizes and 13 first-grade prizesrespectively at the 1994 CAS Awards for S&T Progress.A brief introduction of them is given as follows:展开更多
In the wake of examination,appraisal and recommendation by the jury of the CAS Awards for S&T Progress and ratified by the CAS President’s Working Conference, 29 R&D projects was confered one special-grade pr...In the wake of examination,appraisal and recommendation by the jury of the CAS Awards for S&T Progress and ratified by the CAS President’s Working Conference, 29 R&D projects was confered one special-grade prize and 28 first-grade prizes of the 1993 CAS Awards for S&T Progress respectively. A brief introduction to them is as follows: SPECIAL PRIZE (1 ITEM)展开更多
The performance of bridge projects in Kenya is poor in terms of completion by schedule, cost, and quality (scope). Yet, there is less evidence of empirical research on what factors contribute to this outcome. This stu...The performance of bridge projects in Kenya is poor in terms of completion by schedule, cost, and quality (scope). Yet, there is less evidence of empirical research on what factors contribute to this outcome. This study aimed to bridge this gap by examining the effects of contractor-related factors on the performance of bridge construction projects in Kenya through a case study of the Bridge projects Implemented by the Kenya National Highway Agency (KeNHA). The theory of constraints (TOC) was adopted as its theoretical framework. Descriptive research was used, and the target population was 18 bridge construction projects, which were the units of analysis from 2012 to 2022. In each of these projects, 18 respondents, namely clients, consultants, contractors, engineers, environment and social guards, project managers, stakeholders, subcontractors, technical advisors, and inspectors, were included in a target population of 144 respondents. A census was conducted and a structured questionnaire was administered from which a response rate of 68% was achieved. The information was analyzed using descriptive, correlation, and multiple linear regression analysis. The contractor-related factors considered in the study were staff and management factors. The findings indicated that staff and management factors had a positive and significant outcome on performance of bridge construction projects. The study recommends continuous training and a safe learning environment for staff to improve their skills and performance in future projects. The study also recommends that a special category for bridge contractors be created in Kenya’s National Construction Authority rankings to ensure that only qualified contractors implement the Bridge projects.展开更多
It is alarming for the fact that Wildfires number, severity and consequently impact have significantly increased during the last years, an aftermath of the Climate Change. One of the most affected areas worldwide is M...It is alarming for the fact that Wildfires number, severity and consequently impact have significantly increased during the last years, an aftermath of the Climate Change. One of the most affected areas worldwide is Mediterranean, due to the unique combination of its type of vegetation and demanding climatic conditions. This research is focused on the Region of Epirus in Greece, an area with significant natural vegetation and a range of geomorphological aspects. In order to estimate the Wildfire Risk Hazard, several factors have been used: geomorphological (slope, aspect, elevation, TWI, Hydrographic network), social (Settlements and landfils, roads, overhead lines and substations), environmental (land cover) and climatic (Fire Weather Index). Through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a GIS environment, the Wildfire Risk Hazard has been estimated not only for current conditions but also for future projections for the near future (2031-2060) and the far future (2071-2100). The selected case study includes the potential impact of the Wildfires to the installed (or targeted to be installed) RES projects in the studied region.展开更多
Final year project is an important training and assessment component incorporated in many courses of academic institution.The ability to translate ideas,research,and creativity into actual products,services,or busines...Final year project is an important training and assessment component incorporated in many courses of academic institution.The ability to translate ideas,research,and creativity into actual products,services,or businesses shows how successful and impactful people or institutions can be in the wider economy.However,in most of the cases,the outcomes of the final year project usually remain as academic discussion without maximizing their potential to be converted into a commercialized product or services.In this review,theory and applications are discussed to understand how entrepreneurial skills and networking abilities,components of individuals’human capital can impact the commercialisation of final year projects.Furthermore,determinants affecting commercialization of final year projects will also be explored namely:entrepreneurial skills,networking ability,access to resources,institutional support as well as creativity and innovation.展开更多
The college innovation and entrepreneurship program is a powerful means to enhance students’innovation and entrepreneurship skills.Evaluating the maturity of innovation and entrepreneurship projects can stimulate stu...The college innovation and entrepreneurship program is a powerful means to enhance students’innovation and entrepreneurship skills.Evaluating the maturity of innovation and entrepreneurship projects can stimulate students’enthusiasm and initiative to participate.Utilizing computer database technology for maturity evaluation can make the process more efficient,accurate,and convenient,aligning with the needs of the information age.Exploring strategies for applying computer database technology in the maturity evaluation of innovation and entrepreneurship projects offers valuable insights and directions for developing these projects,while also providing strong support for enhancing students’innovation and entrepreneurship abilities.展开更多
The financial aspects of large-scale engineering construction projects profoundly influence their success.Strengthening cost control and establishing a scientific financial evaluation system can enhance the project’s...The financial aspects of large-scale engineering construction projects profoundly influence their success.Strengthening cost control and establishing a scientific financial evaluation system can enhance the project’s economic benefits,minimize unnecessary costs,and provide decision-makers with a robust financial foundation.Additionally,implementing an effective cash flow control mechanism and conducting a comprehensive assessment of potential project risks can ensure financial stability and mitigate the risk of fund shortages.Developing a practical and feasible fundraising plan,along with stringent fund management practices,can prevent fund wastage and optimize fund utilization efficiency.These measures not only facilitate smooth project progression and improve project management efficiency but also enhance the project’s economic and social outcomes.展开更多
In an era dominated by artificial intelligence (AI), establishing customer confidence is crucial for the integration and acceptance of AI technologies. This interdisciplinary study examines factors influencing custome...In an era dominated by artificial intelligence (AI), establishing customer confidence is crucial for the integration and acceptance of AI technologies. This interdisciplinary study examines factors influencing customer trust in AI systems through a mixed-methods approach, blending quantitative analysis with qualitative insights to create a comprehensive conceptual framework. Quantitatively, the study analyzes responses from 1248 participants using structural equation modeling (SEM), exploring interactions between technological factors like perceived usefulness and transparency, psychological factors including perceived risk and domain expertise, and organizational factors such as leadership support and ethical accountability. The results confirm the model, showing significant impacts of these factors on consumer trust and AI adoption attitudes. Qualitatively, the study includes 35 semi-structured interviews and five case studies, providing deeper insight into the dynamics shaping trust. Key themes identified include the necessity of explainability, domain competence, corporate culture, and stakeholder engagement in fostering trust. The qualitative findings complement the quantitative data, highlighting the complex interplay between technology capabilities, human perceptions, and organizational practices in establishing trust in AI. By integrating these findings, the study proposes a novel conceptual model that elucidates how various elements collectively influence consumer trust in AI. This model not only advances theoretical understanding but also offers practical implications for businesses and policymakers. The research contributes to the discourse on trust creation and decision-making in technology, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary efforts to address societal challenges associated with technological advancements. It lays the groundwork for future research, including longitudinal, cross-cultural, and industry-specific studies, to further explore consumer trust in AI.展开更多
Against the backdrop of rapid development in China’s construction and infrastructure sectors,discrepancies between project budgets and actual costs have become pronounced,manifesting in project overruns and suspensio...Against the backdrop of rapid development in China’s construction and infrastructure sectors,discrepancies between project budgets and actual costs have become pronounced,manifesting in project overruns and suspensions,posing significant challenges.To address inaccuracies in investment targets and operational complexities,this study focuses on a beam-bridge construction project in a district of Shijiazhuang city as a case study.Drawing upon historical analogs,the project employs a Work Breakdown Structure(WBS)to decompose the engineering works.Building on theories of Cost Significant(CS)and Whole Life Costing(WLC),the study constructs Cost Significant Items(CSIs)and develops a CNN-BiLSTM-Attention neural network for nonlinear prediction.By identifying significant cost drivers in engineering projects,this paper presents a streamlined cost estimation method that significantly reduces computational burdens,simplifies data collection processes,and optimizes data analysis and forecasting,thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.Finally,validation with real-world cost fluctuation data demonstrates minor errors,meeting predictive requirements across project execution phases.展开更多
Various industries today rely on the support of electromechanical equipment,expanding its scope of application and leading to an increase in electromechanical installation projects.However,due to the high level of exp...Various industries today rely on the support of electromechanical equipment,expanding its scope of application and leading to an increase in electromechanical installation projects.However,due to the high level of expertise required and the potential risks involved,it is crucial to emphasize safety management during construction.This paper delves into the significance of construction safety management for electromechanical installation projects,identifies common problems encountered during construction,and proposes solutions.This analysis aims to provide relevant personnel with essential guidance and references for managing electromechanical installation projects safely.展开更多
The importance and complexity of prioritizing construction projects (PCP) in urban road network planning lead to the necessity to develop an aided decision making program (ADMP). Cost benefit ratio model and stage rol...The importance and complexity of prioritizing construction projects (PCP) in urban road network planning lead to the necessity to develop an aided decision making program (ADMP). Cost benefit ratio model and stage rolled method are chosen as the theoretical foundations of the program, and then benefit model is improved to accord with the actuality of urban traffic in China. Consequently, program flows, module functions and data structures are designed, and particularly an original data structure of road ...展开更多
Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assesse...Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.展开更多
This paper is concerned with distributed Nash equi librium seeking strategies under quantized communication. In the proposed seeking strategy, a projection operator is synthesized with a gradient search method to achi...This paper is concerned with distributed Nash equi librium seeking strategies under quantized communication. In the proposed seeking strategy, a projection operator is synthesized with a gradient search method to achieve the optimization o players' objective functions while restricting their actions within required non-empty, convex and compact domains. In addition, a leader-following consensus protocol, in which quantized informa tion flows are utilized, is employed for information sharing among players. More specifically, logarithmic quantizers and uniform quantizers are investigated under both undirected and connected communication graphs and strongly connected digraphs, respec tively. Through Lyapunov stability analysis, it is shown that play ers' actions can be steered to a neighborhood of the Nash equilib rium with logarithmic and uniform quantizers, and the quanti fied convergence error depends on the parameter of the quan tizer for both undirected and directed cases. A numerical exam ple is given to verify the theoretical results.展开更多
Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate model...Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.展开更多
文摘Following a thorough examination and appraisal by the Awards jury and after ratification by the CAS President’s Working Conference, a total of 15 R&D projects were granted special-grade prizes and 13 first-grade prizesrespectively at the 1994 CAS Awards for S&T Progress.A brief introduction of them is given as follows:
文摘In the wake of examination,appraisal and recommendation by the jury of the CAS Awards for S&T Progress and ratified by the CAS President’s Working Conference, 29 R&D projects was confered one special-grade prize and 28 first-grade prizes of the 1993 CAS Awards for S&T Progress respectively. A brief introduction to them is as follows: SPECIAL PRIZE (1 ITEM)
文摘The performance of bridge projects in Kenya is poor in terms of completion by schedule, cost, and quality (scope). Yet, there is less evidence of empirical research on what factors contribute to this outcome. This study aimed to bridge this gap by examining the effects of contractor-related factors on the performance of bridge construction projects in Kenya through a case study of the Bridge projects Implemented by the Kenya National Highway Agency (KeNHA). The theory of constraints (TOC) was adopted as its theoretical framework. Descriptive research was used, and the target population was 18 bridge construction projects, which were the units of analysis from 2012 to 2022. In each of these projects, 18 respondents, namely clients, consultants, contractors, engineers, environment and social guards, project managers, stakeholders, subcontractors, technical advisors, and inspectors, were included in a target population of 144 respondents. A census was conducted and a structured questionnaire was administered from which a response rate of 68% was achieved. The information was analyzed using descriptive, correlation, and multiple linear regression analysis. The contractor-related factors considered in the study were staff and management factors. The findings indicated that staff and management factors had a positive and significant outcome on performance of bridge construction projects. The study recommends continuous training and a safe learning environment for staff to improve their skills and performance in future projects. The study also recommends that a special category for bridge contractors be created in Kenya’s National Construction Authority rankings to ensure that only qualified contractors implement the Bridge projects.
文摘It is alarming for the fact that Wildfires number, severity and consequently impact have significantly increased during the last years, an aftermath of the Climate Change. One of the most affected areas worldwide is Mediterranean, due to the unique combination of its type of vegetation and demanding climatic conditions. This research is focused on the Region of Epirus in Greece, an area with significant natural vegetation and a range of geomorphological aspects. In order to estimate the Wildfire Risk Hazard, several factors have been used: geomorphological (slope, aspect, elevation, TWI, Hydrographic network), social (Settlements and landfils, roads, overhead lines and substations), environmental (land cover) and climatic (Fire Weather Index). Through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a GIS environment, the Wildfire Risk Hazard has been estimated not only for current conditions but also for future projections for the near future (2031-2060) and the far future (2071-2100). The selected case study includes the potential impact of the Wildfires to the installed (or targeted to be installed) RES projects in the studied region.
文摘Final year project is an important training and assessment component incorporated in many courses of academic institution.The ability to translate ideas,research,and creativity into actual products,services,or businesses shows how successful and impactful people or institutions can be in the wider economy.However,in most of the cases,the outcomes of the final year project usually remain as academic discussion without maximizing their potential to be converted into a commercialized product or services.In this review,theory and applications are discussed to understand how entrepreneurial skills and networking abilities,components of individuals’human capital can impact the commercialisation of final year projects.Furthermore,determinants affecting commercialization of final year projects will also be explored namely:entrepreneurial skills,networking ability,access to resources,institutional support as well as creativity and innovation.
基金“Undergraduate Teaching Research and Reform Project of the University of Shanghai for Science and Technology”(Project No.JGXM202351).
文摘The college innovation and entrepreneurship program is a powerful means to enhance students’innovation and entrepreneurship skills.Evaluating the maturity of innovation and entrepreneurship projects can stimulate students’enthusiasm and initiative to participate.Utilizing computer database technology for maturity evaluation can make the process more efficient,accurate,and convenient,aligning with the needs of the information age.Exploring strategies for applying computer database technology in the maturity evaluation of innovation and entrepreneurship projects offers valuable insights and directions for developing these projects,while also providing strong support for enhancing students’innovation and entrepreneurship abilities.
文摘The financial aspects of large-scale engineering construction projects profoundly influence their success.Strengthening cost control and establishing a scientific financial evaluation system can enhance the project’s economic benefits,minimize unnecessary costs,and provide decision-makers with a robust financial foundation.Additionally,implementing an effective cash flow control mechanism and conducting a comprehensive assessment of potential project risks can ensure financial stability and mitigate the risk of fund shortages.Developing a practical and feasible fundraising plan,along with stringent fund management practices,can prevent fund wastage and optimize fund utilization efficiency.These measures not only facilitate smooth project progression and improve project management efficiency but also enhance the project’s economic and social outcomes.
文摘In an era dominated by artificial intelligence (AI), establishing customer confidence is crucial for the integration and acceptance of AI technologies. This interdisciplinary study examines factors influencing customer trust in AI systems through a mixed-methods approach, blending quantitative analysis with qualitative insights to create a comprehensive conceptual framework. Quantitatively, the study analyzes responses from 1248 participants using structural equation modeling (SEM), exploring interactions between technological factors like perceived usefulness and transparency, psychological factors including perceived risk and domain expertise, and organizational factors such as leadership support and ethical accountability. The results confirm the model, showing significant impacts of these factors on consumer trust and AI adoption attitudes. Qualitatively, the study includes 35 semi-structured interviews and five case studies, providing deeper insight into the dynamics shaping trust. Key themes identified include the necessity of explainability, domain competence, corporate culture, and stakeholder engagement in fostering trust. The qualitative findings complement the quantitative data, highlighting the complex interplay between technology capabilities, human perceptions, and organizational practices in establishing trust in AI. By integrating these findings, the study proposes a novel conceptual model that elucidates how various elements collectively influence consumer trust in AI. This model not only advances theoretical understanding but also offers practical implications for businesses and policymakers. The research contributes to the discourse on trust creation and decision-making in technology, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary efforts to address societal challenges associated with technological advancements. It lays the groundwork for future research, including longitudinal, cross-cultural, and industry-specific studies, to further explore consumer trust in AI.
文摘Against the backdrop of rapid development in China’s construction and infrastructure sectors,discrepancies between project budgets and actual costs have become pronounced,manifesting in project overruns and suspensions,posing significant challenges.To address inaccuracies in investment targets and operational complexities,this study focuses on a beam-bridge construction project in a district of Shijiazhuang city as a case study.Drawing upon historical analogs,the project employs a Work Breakdown Structure(WBS)to decompose the engineering works.Building on theories of Cost Significant(CS)and Whole Life Costing(WLC),the study constructs Cost Significant Items(CSIs)and develops a CNN-BiLSTM-Attention neural network for nonlinear prediction.By identifying significant cost drivers in engineering projects,this paper presents a streamlined cost estimation method that significantly reduces computational burdens,simplifies data collection processes,and optimizes data analysis and forecasting,thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.Finally,validation with real-world cost fluctuation data demonstrates minor errors,meeting predictive requirements across project execution phases.
文摘Various industries today rely on the support of electromechanical equipment,expanding its scope of application and leading to an increase in electromechanical installation projects.However,due to the high level of expertise required and the potential risks involved,it is crucial to emphasize safety management during construction.This paper delves into the significance of construction safety management for electromechanical installation projects,identifies common problems encountered during construction,and proposes solutions.This analysis aims to provide relevant personnel with essential guidance and references for managing electromechanical installation projects safely.
文摘The importance and complexity of prioritizing construction projects (PCP) in urban road network planning lead to the necessity to develop an aided decision making program (ADMP). Cost benefit ratio model and stage rolled method are chosen as the theoretical foundations of the program, and then benefit model is improved to accord with the actuality of urban traffic in China. Consequently, program flows, module functions and data structures are designed, and particularly an original data structure of road ...
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program[grant number 2019QZKK0102]the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 060GJHZ2023079GC].
文摘Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)(62222308, 62173181, 62073171, 62221004)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20200744, BK20220139)+3 种基金Jiangsu Specially-Appointed Professor (RK043STP19001)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST (2021QNRC001)1311 Talent Plan of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunicationsthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (30920032203)。
文摘This paper is concerned with distributed Nash equi librium seeking strategies under quantized communication. In the proposed seeking strategy, a projection operator is synthesized with a gradient search method to achieve the optimization o players' objective functions while restricting their actions within required non-empty, convex and compact domains. In addition, a leader-following consensus protocol, in which quantized informa tion flows are utilized, is employed for information sharing among players. More specifically, logarithmic quantizers and uniform quantizers are investigated under both undirected and connected communication graphs and strongly connected digraphs, respec tively. Through Lyapunov stability analysis, it is shown that play ers' actions can be steered to a neighborhood of the Nash equilib rium with logarithmic and uniform quantizers, and the quanti fied convergence error depends on the parameter of the quan tizer for both undirected and directed cases. A numerical exam ple is given to verify the theoretical results.
基金funding from the NFR COMBINED (Grant No.328935)The BCPU hosted YZ visit to University of Bergen (Trond Mohn Foundation Grant No.BFS2018TMT01)+2 种基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2023YFA0805101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42376250 and 41731177)a China Scholarship Council fellowship and the UTFORSK Partnership Program (CONNECTED UTF-2016-long-term/10030)。
文摘Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.
