Liver Transplantation (in Chinese), revised edition, edited by Professor Shu-Sen Zheng and prefaced by Professor Guo-Wei Sang, has just been published. The revised edition is mainly based on the clinical practice of t...Liver Transplantation (in Chinese), revised edition, edited by Professor Shu-Sen Zheng and prefaced by Professor Guo-Wei Sang, has just been published. The revised edition is mainly based on the clinical practice of the Liver Transplant Center, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University and the experience展开更多
In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which ...In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.展开更多
The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditio...The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.展开更多
RMB has been depreciating internally while appreciating externally since 2002. This new monetary phenomenon, has been strengthened in the context that US dollar depreciates internationally and that domestic economy is...RMB has been depreciating internally while appreciating externally since 2002. This new monetary phenomenon, has been strengthened in the context that US dollar depreciates internationally and that domestic economy is overwhelmed with excessive liquidities. Certainly the monetary phenomenon is the reflection of the actual economy: continued trade surplus, triggered robustly by the export-driven economy, is bringing a huge amount of exchange reserve which accelerates sequentially the expansion of domestic money supply. Furthermore, a refrained appreciation of RMB tends to deteriorate the domestic inflation, which is not simply a traditional concept of CPI but a broad inflation parameter including a variety of asset prices. It's sure that the new phenomenon is becoming a new challenge to the macroeconomic equilibrium as well as the decision maker of monetary policy.展开更多
Expediting the RMB internationalization in countries along the Belt and Road routes will knock down bottlenecks affecting Chinese investors in exchange rates, financing, and debts, and increase capital resources for t...Expediting the RMB internationalization in countries along the Belt and Road routes will knock down bottlenecks affecting Chinese investors in exchange rates, financing, and debts, and increase capital resources for these countries.展开更多
In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the international...In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.展开更多
Promoting the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America is not only a requirement of the China-Latin American relationship and of China’s reform and opening-up policy in the financial sectors, but is also a st...Promoting the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America is not only a requirement of the China-Latin American relationship and of China’s reform and opening-up policy in the financial sectors, but is also a strategic choice. With the support of internal, external and bilateral factors,China and Latin American countries have seen a lot progress in RMB trade settlement, investment, financing, and so on, yet Latin American countries’ willingness to use the RMB is still low, there is an obvious shortage of exchange mechanisms, and currency cooperation between them may face more obstacles as China-US competition intensifies. Under these circumstances, in order to further promote the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America, China should seize the opportunity of Latin America’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and their demand for currency diversification, as well as the friction between the US-Latin American relationship, start reducing the shortage of institutional exchange mechanisms, and plan for the RMB internationalization process in Latin America at a strategic level.展开更多
The Ministry of Finance(MOF)said,in an online statement,that the combined profits of China’s SOEs rose 7.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.82 trillion(USD 264.5 billion)for the first six months of 2019.
With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto reg...With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.展开更多
China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a high...China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.展开更多
President Xi Jinping put forward that, "China will further push the open economy to a higher level by enlarging its scale, expanding its area, and deepening its degree." This proposal provides new perspectiv...President Xi Jinping put forward that, "China will further push the open economy to a higher level by enlarging its scale, expanding its area, and deepening its degree." This proposal provides new perspectives for RMB internationalization. The new path of RMB internationalization shall be achieved under the Belt and Road Initiative and be a new option that is di erent from the "Three-Stage Theory" and regional monetary cooperation. RMB internationalization can only be realized through a government-driven mode with Chinese characteristics which shows the fundamental di erence from the internationalization of other currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The Chinese government can realize the strategic objective of RMB internationalization through improving national governance, applying policies and tools for macroeconomic regulation, and implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the operation of its nancial industry, the Silk Road Fund(SRF), and that of regional banks like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and the BRICS New Development Bank(NDB). RMB internationalization is an important objective of China's political and economic development. Efforts must be made to steadily promote market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate and its forming mechanism, and reform of capital account convertibility so that RMB can become the leading global reserve currency. Meanwhile, China will also undertake more responsibilities as a major power for stable development of the international economy and nance.展开更多
The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a t...The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.展开更多
This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behavior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heck...This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behavior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heckman selection model to estimate general effects and structural effects of RMB appreciation on export based on the sample data of China Industrial Enterprises from 2005 to 2009. Findings reveal that RMB appreciation has exerted a significant negative impact to corporate export through extensive margins and intensive margins. Meanwhile, due to different corporate strategies of heterogeneous enterprises, RMB appreciation cannot achieve the expected effect of ＂survival of the fittest＂ and is instead unfavorable to the optimization of export structure. RMB appreciatiou drives industry structure of export to evolve towards advanced levels to a certain extent. However, such a positive effect mainly derives from the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises while restricting development space of indigenous firms in the sector of advanced manufacturing.展开更多
文摘Liver Transplantation (in Chinese), revised edition, edited by Professor Shu-Sen Zheng and prefaced by Professor Guo-Wei Sang, has just been published. The revised edition is mainly based on the clinical practice of the Liver Transplant Center, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University and the experience
文摘In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.
基金Projects(71874210,71633006,71874207,71974208)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX049)supported by Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China+1 种基金Project(2018dcyj031)supported by Postgraduate Survey Research Foundation of Central South University,ChinaProject(17K103)supported by the Innovation Platform Open Fund Project of Hunan Education Department,China。
文摘The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.
文摘RMB has been depreciating internally while appreciating externally since 2002. This new monetary phenomenon, has been strengthened in the context that US dollar depreciates internationally and that domestic economy is overwhelmed with excessive liquidities. Certainly the monetary phenomenon is the reflection of the actual economy: continued trade surplus, triggered robustly by the export-driven economy, is bringing a huge amount of exchange reserve which accelerates sequentially the expansion of domestic money supply. Furthermore, a refrained appreciation of RMB tends to deteriorate the domestic inflation, which is not simply a traditional concept of CPI but a broad inflation parameter including a variety of asset prices. It's sure that the new phenomenon is becoming a new challenge to the macroeconomic equilibrium as well as the decision maker of monetary policy.
文摘Expediting the RMB internationalization in countries along the Belt and Road routes will knock down bottlenecks affecting Chinese investors in exchange rates, financing, and debts, and increase capital resources for these countries.
文摘In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.
文摘Promoting the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America is not only a requirement of the China-Latin American relationship and of China’s reform and opening-up policy in the financial sectors, but is also a strategic choice. With the support of internal, external and bilateral factors,China and Latin American countries have seen a lot progress in RMB trade settlement, investment, financing, and so on, yet Latin American countries’ willingness to use the RMB is still low, there is an obvious shortage of exchange mechanisms, and currency cooperation between them may face more obstacles as China-US competition intensifies. Under these circumstances, in order to further promote the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America, China should seize the opportunity of Latin America’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and their demand for currency diversification, as well as the friction between the US-Latin American relationship, start reducing the shortage of institutional exchange mechanisms, and plan for the RMB internationalization process in Latin America at a strategic level.
文摘The Ministry of Finance(MOF)said,in an online statement,that the combined profits of China’s SOEs rose 7.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.82 trillion(USD 264.5 billion)for the first six months of 2019.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2019CDSKXYGG0042,2018CDXYGG0054,2020CDJSK01HQ01)National Social Science Funds(16CJL007).
文摘With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.
文摘China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.
文摘President Xi Jinping put forward that, "China will further push the open economy to a higher level by enlarging its scale, expanding its area, and deepening its degree." This proposal provides new perspectives for RMB internationalization. The new path of RMB internationalization shall be achieved under the Belt and Road Initiative and be a new option that is di erent from the "Three-Stage Theory" and regional monetary cooperation. RMB internationalization can only be realized through a government-driven mode with Chinese characteristics which shows the fundamental di erence from the internationalization of other currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The Chinese government can realize the strategic objective of RMB internationalization through improving national governance, applying policies and tools for macroeconomic regulation, and implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the operation of its nancial industry, the Silk Road Fund(SRF), and that of regional banks like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and the BRICS New Development Bank(NDB). RMB internationalization is an important objective of China's political and economic development. Efforts must be made to steadily promote market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate and its forming mechanism, and reform of capital account convertibility so that RMB can become the leading global reserve currency. Meanwhile, China will also undertake more responsibilities as a major power for stable development of the international economy and nance.
文摘The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.
文摘This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behavior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heckman selection model to estimate general effects and structural effects of RMB appreciation on export based on the sample data of China Industrial Enterprises from 2005 to 2009. Findings reveal that RMB appreciation has exerted a significant negative impact to corporate export through extensive margins and intensive margins. Meanwhile, due to different corporate strategies of heterogeneous enterprises, RMB appreciation cannot achieve the expected effect of ＂survival of the fittest＂ and is instead unfavorable to the optimization of export structure. RMB appreciatiou drives industry structure of export to evolve towards advanced levels to a certain extent. However, such a positive effect mainly derives from the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises while restricting development space of indigenous firms in the sector of advanced manufacturing.
