THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PATTERNS OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK EVENTS IN THE PAST 30 YEARS IN SHENYANG CITY

The index of Risk Frequency (RF) and other relative indices are used to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of environmental riskevents in the past 30 years in Shenyang city. The results show that thereexists significant difference of the RFs between periods of 1966-1977 and1978-1991 (t=7.353**, t0.01=2.807). During the past 30 years, there areno significant changes of the spatial patterns of the environmental risk,while the proportions of environmental risk among the districts are extremely different. In Shenyang city, there exists a series of high riskenterprises, and the chemical industry is the one with highest risk.

Evolution Analysis of Societal Risk Events by Risk Maps

Event evolution analysis which provides an effective approach to capture the main context of a story from explosive increased news texts has become the critical basis for many real applications,such as crisis and emergency management and decision making.Especially,the development of societal risk events which may cause some possible harm to society or individuals has been heavily concerned by both the government and the public.In order to capture the evolution and trends of societal risk events,this paper presents an improved algorithm based on the method of information maps.It contains an event-level cluster generation algorithm and an evaluation algorithm.The main work includes:1)Word embedding representation is adopted and event-level clusters are chosen as nodes of the events evolution chains which may comprehensively present the underlying structure of events.Meanwhile,clusters that consist of risk-labeled events enable to illustrate how events evolve along the time with transitions of risks.2)One real-world case,the event of"Chinese Red Cross",is studied and a series of experiments are conducted.3)An evaluation algorithm is proposed on the basis of indicators of map construction without massive human-annotated dataset.Our approach for event evolution analysis automatically generates a visual evolution of societal risk events,displaying a clear and structural picture of events development.

基于改进Event模型的通用航空器碰撞风险分析

随着通用航空的发展,空中交通流量将持续扩大,航空器碰撞风险增加。对Event模型进行改进,将拼接四棱锥碰撞盒代替原长方体碰撞盒,曲面间隔层代替平面间隔层,建立通用航空器碰撞风险模型。最后将塞斯纳172及运5B通用航空器作为实例对所建模型进行验证,结果表明,在两组均采用广义帕累托分布的条件下,改进后Event模型碰撞风险值分别为改进前的31.65%、14.98%,碰撞风险值较改进前大大减少,结果精度更高,能更好地评估交叉航路碰撞风险。

Risk factors for adverse cardiac events in adults with fulminant myocarditis during hospitalization

BACKGROUND Fulminant myocarditis is the critical form of myocarditis that is often associated with heart failure, malignant arrhythmia, and circulatory failure. Patients with fulminant myocarditis who end up with severe multiple organic failure and death are not rare.AIM To analyze the predictors of in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE) in patients diagnosed with fulminant myocarditis.METHODS We included a cohort of adult patients diagnosed with fulminant myocarditis who were admitted to Beijing Anzhen Hospital from January 2007 to December2017. The primary endpoint was defined as in-hospital MACE, including death,cardiac arrest, cardiac shock, and ventricular fibrillation. Baseline demographics,clinical history, characteristics of electrocardiograph and ultrasonic cardiogram,laboratory examination, and treatment were recorded. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine risk factors for in-hospital MACE, and the variables were subsequently assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).RESULTS The rate of in-hospital MACE was 40%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that baseline QRS duration > 120 ms was the independent risk factor for in-hospital MACE(odds ratio = 4.57, 95%CI: 1.23-16.94, P = 0.023). The AUC of QRS duration > 120 ms for predicting in-hospital MACE was 0.683(95%CI: 0.532-0.833, P = 0.03).CONCLUSION Patients with fulminant myocarditis has a poor outcome. Baseline QRS duration is the independent risk factor for poor outcome in those patients.

Electrocardiographic predictors of cardiovascular events in patients at high cardiovascular risk: a multicenter study

Background There are limited data on the prevalence of electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities, and their value for predicting a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in patients at high cardiovascular risk. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of ECG abnormalities in patients at high risk for cardiovascular events, and to identify ECG abnormalities that significantly predict MACE. Methods Patients aged ≥ 45 years with established atherosclerotic disease (EAD) were consecutively enrolled from the outpatient clinics of the six participating hospitals during April 2011 to March 2014. The following data were collected: demographic data, cardiovascular risk factors, history of cardiovascular event, physical examination, ECG and medications. ECG was analyzed using Minnesota Code criteria. MACE included cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and hospitalization due to unstable angina or heart failure. Results A total of 2009 patients were included, 1048 patients (52.2%) had established EAD, and 961 patients (47.8%) had multiple risk factors (MRF). ECG abnormalities included atrial fibrillation (6.7%), premature ventricular contraction (5.4%), pathological Q-wave (Q/QS)(21.3%), T-wave inversion (20.0%), intraventricular ventricular conduction delay (IVCD)(7.3%), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH)(12.2%), and AV block (12.5%). MACE occurred in 88 patients (4.4%). Independent predictors of MACE were chronic kidney disease, EAD, and the presence of atrial fibrillation, Q/QS, IVCD or LVH by ECG. Conclusions A high prevalence of ECG abnormalities was found. The prevalence of ECG abnormalities was high even among those with risk factors without documented cardiovascular disease.

平行进近偏航下Event碰撞风险模型

为了研究航空器平行进近偏航情况下偏航角度对碰撞风险的影响,利用Event模型和概率论理论,建立平行进近偏航碰撞风险模型;通过分析偏航时碰撞盒体型的变换,得到扩展碰撞盒截面随时间t以及偏航角α的变化特征;为方便推导碰撞风险的计算公式,引入碰撞概率比R,将其定义为变换后碰撞盒体积与原模型碰撞盒体积的比值;以北京首都机场外侧跑道平行进近偏航情况为例进行碰撞风险分析。结果表明:当给定飞机尺寸与跑道间隔时,偏航角度α在[0,90°]范围内增大,飞机对碰撞风险也增大;同时,仅当飞机进近偏航的角度小于32°时,2机之间的碰撞风险才能满足安全目标水平。

基于EVENT模型的单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险分析

我国空域骨干航路拥挤不堪,一些支线航路的利用率却很低,单向循环航路的出现很好地解决了这一问题,对其进行安全评估是划设航路最重要的工作之一。在总结EVENT理论和相关文献的基础上,对单向循环航路和混合航路侧向碰撞风险进行比较分析,推算出目标安全等级下单向循环航路容量,并对单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险进行预测。结果表明,单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险远低于混合航路侧向碰撞风险,且未来10年均保持在比较稳定的安全水平。

自由飞行下改进的Event碰撞风险计算模型

为确保航空器在自由飞行空域中安全飞行,需要建立自由飞行下的碰撞风险计算模型,评估其碰撞风险。借鉴非自由飞行下的Event碰撞风险评估模型构想,根据自由飞行的特点,将碰撞模版由长方体改为球体。在自由飞行环境下,碰撞风险由航空器航向关系及航空器间距共同确定,并考虑通信、导航、监视(CNS)技术因素对航空器定位误差的影响;分析航向解脱和高度解脱2种冲突解脱方式,建立碰撞风险模型;利用Matlab对模型进行求解,最后依据碰撞风险计算结果确定最小安全间距。算例结果表明,目标安全水平(TSL)为1.5×10^(-8)(次/飞行小时)时,航空器间最小安全间距为10 096 m,与实际相符。

Clues from networks:quantifying relational risk for credit risk evaluation of SMEs

Owing to information asymmetry,evaluating the credit risk of small-and mediumsized enterprises(SMEs)is difficult.While previous studies evaluating the credit risk of SMEs have mostly focused on intrinsic risk generated by SMEs,our study considers both intrinsic and relational risks generated by neighbor firms’publicly available risk events.We propose a framework for quantifying relational risk based on publicly available risk events for SMEs’credit risk evaluation.Our proposed framework quantifies relational risk by weighting the impact of publicly available risk events of each firm in an interfirm network—considering the impact of interfirm network type,risk event type,and time dependence of risk events—and combines the relational risk score with financial and demographic features to evaluate SMEs credit risk.Our results reveal that relational risk score significantly improves both discrimination and granting performances of credit risk evaluation of SMEs,providing valuable managerial and practical implications for financial institutions.

基于改进Event模型的航路垂直方向碰撞研究

为进一步提高平行航路相邻高度层碰撞风险模型计算精确度,提高空域利用率,提出基于改进Event模型的垂直方向碰撞风险研究方法。用两个拼接四棱锥碰撞盒代替原长方体以及椭球体碰撞盒,计算改进前后扩展碰撞盒面积,得出面积比值,建立新的碰撞风险计算公式。以A321-200客机和B737-800客机为算例,将其相关的碰撞参数代入MATLAB中进行仿真验证,对比分析三种模型的碰撞风险。结果表明:改进之后的拼接四棱锥模型碰撞风险为原长方体模型碰撞风险的13%,为原椭球体模型碰撞风险的65%。模型精确度较高,能够更好的对航空器的碰撞风险进行评估。

基于改进Event模型的交叉航路碰撞风险分析

随着空中交通流量不断增加,降低因流量增大而引起的空中交通碰撞风险至关重要,以此来保障航空运行安全,提高空域利用率。采用改进Event模型对同高度层交叉航路碰撞风险进行评估,将更符合航空器运行特点的拼接四棱锥碰撞盒代替原长方体碰撞盒,建立碰撞风险模型。通过计算改进前后碰撞盒面积之比,得到改进的交叉航路碰撞风险公式,其中,侧向重叠概率的计算中采用广义帕累托分布表示其侧向导航误差。最后将空客A320及波音737客机作为实例对所建模型进行验证,结果表明,改进后的拼接四棱锥碰撞盒面积为原长方体碰撞盒面积的54%,碰撞风险较改进前模型大大减少。模型所得风险值满足安全目标水平,结果精度更高,能更好地评估交叉航路碰撞风险。

基于Event改进模型的交叉航路碰撞风险评估

通过对原有Event碰撞风险模型的改进研究,建立了交叉航路碰撞风险评估模型。用椭球形碰撞模板代替传统的长方形碰撞模板,并用广义帕累托分布对误差较大的尾部导航数据进行描述,推导出该条件下的碰撞风险计算模型,最后用改进后的Event碰撞风险模型对交叉航路的水平重叠概率进行计算。算例表明:采用广义帕累托分布的椭球体Event碰撞风险模型可行,且对交叉航路的碰撞风险评估比原Event模型更精确。

基于Event模型的冲突风险新算法

鉴于管制过程中对航空器冲突问题发展的研究,对经典事件模型的结构进行改进,用球形曲面间隔层代替传统的平面间隔层,结合扩展碰撞盒概率关系比计算冲突风险,提高了模板与实际航空器运行状态的切合度。并以模拟航空器飞行数据进行仿真,对改进模型的冲突风险与原模型的进行比较评估,结果表明该算法正确。

V-RISK-10联合P300检测预测精神分裂症患者暴力行为的价值研究

目的探讨攻击风险筛查量表(V-RISK-10)联合事件相关电位P300检测预测精神分裂症患者暴力行为的价值。方法选取120例精神分裂症患者,入院时用V-RISK-10对患者进行评估。使用医用事件相关电位仪进行听觉P300检查,记录患者P300波幅和潜伏期。记录患者住院1周内是否发生暴力行为。采用Logistic多因素分析和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析V-RISK-10联合P300预测精神分裂症患者暴力行为的价值。结果120例精神分裂症患者中41例(34.17%)在入院1周内发生暴力行为。单因素分析发现,既往有暴力史、强制入院、存在被害妄想、V-RISK-10评分、P300潜伏期、P300波幅是精神分裂症患者发生暴力行为的影响因素(P<0.05)。回归分析结果显示,存在被害妄想、V-RISK-10评分、P300潜伏期、P300波幅是精神分裂症患者发生暴力行为的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。V-RISK-10评分、P300潜伏期、P300波幅预测精神分裂症患者暴力行为的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.782、0.833、0.880,三者联合可将AUC提高至0.937。结论V-RISK-10联合P300检测能较好地预测精神分裂症患者发生暴力行为。

Risk Index Prediction of Civil Aviation Based on Deep Neural Network

Safety is the foundation of sustainable development in civil aviation.Although catastrophic accidents are rare,indicators of potential incidents and unsafe events frequently materialize.Therefore,a history of unsafe data are considered in predicting safety risks.A deep learning method is adopted for extracting reactions in safety risks.The deep neural network(DNN)model for safety risk prediction is shown to extract complex data characteristics better than a shallow network model.Using extended unsafe data and monthly risk indices,hidden layers and iterations are determined.The effectiveness of DNN is also revealed in comparison with the traditional neural network.Through early risk detection using the method in the paper,airlines and the government can mitigate potential risk and take proactive measures to improve civil aviation safety.

基于Event模型的跨高度层军民航碰撞风险分析

为了缓解军民航用空矛盾,确保空中飞行安全,使军航训练空域的划设更加科学可信,利用Event模型,以跨多个高度层的半滚倒转特技训练为例,通过仿真计算战斗机特技飞行训练标称航迹,以及军民航飞机在导航误差、飞行员操作误差、侧向风等因素影响下的侧向间隔丢失频率,获得在特技飞行训练中的军民航飞机碰撞概率模型,并给出符合国际民航组织安全目标等级的训练空域安全余度及军航飞行训练方法建议。

Cardiovascular disease: Risk factors and applicability of a risk model in a Greek cohort of renal transplant recipients

AIM To investigate the incidence and the determinants of cardiovascular morbidity in Greek renal transplant recipients(RTRs) expressed as major advance cardiac event(MACE) rate. METHODS Two hundred and forty-two adult patients with a functioning graft for at least three months and availabledata that were followed up on the August 31, 2015 at two transplant centers of Western Greece were included in this study. Baseline recipients' data elements included demographics, clinical characteristics, history of comorbid conditions and laboratory parameters. Follow-up data regarding MACE occurrence were collected retrospectively from the patients' records and MACE risk score was calculated for each patient. RESULTS The mean age was 53 years(63.6% males) and 47 patients(19.4%) had a pre-existing cardiovascular disease(CVD) before transplantation. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 52 ± 17 mL /min per 1.73 m2. During follow-up 36 patients(14.9%) suffered a MACE with a median time to MACE 5 years(interquartile range: 2.2-10 years). Recipients with a MACE compared to recipients without a MACE had a significantly higher mean age(59 years vs 52 years, P < 0.001) and a higher prevalence of pre-existing CVD(44.4% vs 15%, P < 0.001). The 7-year predicted mean risk for MACE was 14.6% ± 12.5% overall. In RTRs who experienced a MACE, the predicted risk was 22.3% ± 17.1% and was significantly higher than in RTRs without an event 13.3% ± 11.1%(P = 0.003). The discrimination ability of the model in the Greek database of RTRs was good with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.68(95%CI: 0.58-0.78).CONCLUSION In this Greek cohort of RTRs, MACE occurred in 14.9% of the patients, pre-existing CVD was the main risk factor, while MACE risk model was proved a dependable utility in predicting CVD post RT.

基于改进Event模型的航路飞行过程垂直碰撞风险研究

随着民航空域运行的日益繁忙,如何从量化分析的角度构建有效合理的数学模型对航路飞行碰撞风险进行量化评估,提高航路规划与管理的科学性是业界面临的重要问题。提出基于改进Event模型的航路飞行过程垂直碰撞风险评估方法,用符合航空器在空间上速度矢量分布的几何体即两个拼接的椭圆锥体碰撞盒代替原Event模型中的长方体碰撞盒计算航空器穿越相邻高度层的概率;并利用改进前后碰撞盒的面积大小比值推导改进后航路中航空器的垂直碰撞风险公式,将碰撞风险参数带入改进后的碰撞风险公式进行计算验证。结果表明:改进方法计算的航空器在航路中垂直碰撞风险是原长方体Event模型碰撞风险模型的13%左右,是原椭球体Event模型碰撞风险模型的67%左右,使用该方法进行量化评估是可行的。

Comparing rockfall hazard and risk assessment procedures along roads for different planning purposes

Hazard and risk assessment procedures of different types of rockfall were analyzed to compare their outcomes when they are applied to the same case study.Although numerous methodologies are available in literature,rockfall hazard and risk analyses are often limited to standard estimations,affected by a margin of uncertainty,especially when relevant engineering projects are about to be realized.Based on the design purpose,different types of approaches can be chosen among the qualitative and quantitative ones available in literature,which allow different levels of analysis.One of the main criticisms related to rockfall events is the risk affecting linear structures,such as road or railways,due both to their strategic relevance for trade and communications and to the great entity of the exposed value(traffic units)traveling along them.In this perspective,a comparison between the qualitative method known as Evolving Rockfall Hazard Assessment(EHRA),the semi-quantitative modified Rockfall Hazard Rating System(RHRS)and the quantitative Rockfall Risk Management(RoMa)approach is herein commented according to a practical application to a case study.It is the case of the rockfall threat along slopes crossed by a strategic road connecting two of the most known spots of eastern Sicily(Italy),at the Taormina tourist complex.Data were retrieved from both recent literature and technical surveys on field.Achieved results highlight how the approaches are affected by a different level of detail and uncertainty,arising also by some necessary assumption that must be taken into account,especially when mitigation measures or territory planning have to be designed.Achieved results can be also taken into account for similar studies worldwide,in order to choose the most suitable procedure based on the design purpose.This is indeed crucial in the perspective of the optimization of time and economic resources in the territorial planning practice.