Deep Learning Shows Promise for Seasonal Prediction of Antarctic Sea Ice in a Rapid Decline Scenario

The rapidly changing Antarctic sea ice has garnered significant interest. To enhance the prediction skill for sea ice and respond to the Sea Ice Prediction Network-South's latest call, this study presents the reforecast results of Antarctic sea-ice area and extent from December to June of the coming year with a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(Conv LSTM)Network. The reforecast experiments demonstrate that Conv LSTM captures the interannual and interseasonal variability of Antarctic sea ice successfully, and performs better than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Based on this, we present the prediction from December 2023 to June 2024, indicating that the Antarctic sea ice will remain at lows, but may not create a new record low. This research highlights the promising application of deep learning in Antarctic sea-ice prediction.

Influence of lithospheric thickness distribution on oil and gas basins,China seas and adjacent areas

The distribution of oil and gas resources is intricately connected to the underlying structure of the lithosphere.Therefore,investigating the characteristics of lithospheric thickness and its correlation with oil and gas basins is highly important.This research utilizes recently enhanced geological–geophysical data,including topographic,geoid,rock layer thickness,variable rock layer density,and interface depth data.Employing the principles of lithospheric isostasy and heat conduction,we compute the laterally varying lithospheric thickness in the China seas and adjacent areas.From these results,two pivotal parameters for different types of oil and gas basins were statistically analyzed:the minimum lithospheric thickness and the relative fluctuation in lithospheric thickness.A semiquantitative analysis was used to explore the connection between these parameters and the hydrocarbon abundance within the oil and gas basins.This study unveils distinct variations in lithospheric thickness among basins,with oil and gas rich basins exhibiting a thicker lithosphere in the superimposed basins of central China and a thinner lithosphere in the rift basins of eastern China.Notably,the relative fluctuations in lithospheric thickness in basins demonstrate significant disparities:basins rich in oil and gas often exhibit greater thickness fluctuations.Additionally,in the offshore basins of China,a conspicuous negative linear correlation is observed between the minimum lithospheric thickness and the relative fluctuation in lithospheric thickness.This study posits that deep-seated thermal upwelling results in lithospheric undulations and extensional thinning in oil and gas basins.Concurrently,sustained deep-seated heat influences sedimentary materials in basins,creating favorable conditions for oil and gas generation.The insights derived from this study contribute to a quantitative understanding of the intricate relationships between deep lithospheric structures and oil and gas basins.These findings provide valuable guidance for future oil and gas exploration in the studied areas.

Global Celebrationof ‘Nihao!China’--2024 China Ice& Snow Tourism Overseas Promotion Season

The successful holding of"Nihao!China"--2024 China Ice&Snow Tourism Overseas Promotion Season has not only deepened the understanding of the people of various countries on the ice&snow cultural and tourist resources with Chinese characteristics,enhanced the exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and foreign cultural and tourist industries,but also accumulated rich experience for the brand construction of the series of event"Themed Tourism Overseas Promotion Season".

The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation Events in East Africa during the Short Rainy Season and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

The East African short rainy season (October-November-December) is one of the major flood seasons in the East African region. The amount of rainfall during the short rainy season is closely related to the lives of the people and the socio-economic development of the area. By using precipitation data and sea surface temperature data, this study reveals the spatial and temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation during the East African short rainy season. Key findings include significant rainfall variability, with Tanzania experiencing the highest amounts in December due to the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while other regions receive less than 100 mm. Extreme rainfall events (90th percentiles) are evenly distributed, averaging 2 to 10 days annually. Historical data shows maximum seasonal rainfall often peaks at 15 mm, with frequent occurrences of daily rainfall exceeding 10 mm during OND. Additionally, a positive correlation (0.48) between OND precipitation extremes and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies is statistically significant. These findings highlight the climatic variability and potential trends in extreme rainfall events in East Africa, providing valuable insights for regional climate adaptation strategies.

Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

Seasonal influence of freshwater discharge on spatio-temporal variations in primary productivity, sea surface temperature, and euphotic zone depth in the northern Bay of Bengal

Ocean productivity is the foundation of marine food web,which continuously removes atmospheric carbon dioxide and supports life at sea and on land.Spatio-temporal variability of net primary productivity(NPP),sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface salinity(SSS),mixed layer depth(MLD),and euphotic zone depth(EZD) in the northern B ay of Bengal(BoB) during three monsoon seasons were examined in this study based on remote sensing data for the period 2005 to 2020.To compare the NPP distribution between the coastal zones and open BoB,the study area was divided into five zones(Z1-Z5).Results suggest that most productive zones Z2 and Zl are located at the head bay area and are directly influenced by freshwater discharge together with riverine sediment and nutrient loads.Across Z1-Z5,the NPP ranges from 5 315.38 mg/(m^(2)·d) to 346.7 mg/(m^(2)·d)(carbon,since then the same).The highest monthly average NPP of 5 315.38 mg/(m^(2)·d) in February and 5 039.36 mg/(m^(2)·d) in June were observed from Z2,while the lowest monthly average of 346.72 mg/(m^(2)·d) was observed in March from Z4,which is an oceanic zone.EZD values vary from 6-154 m for the study area,and it has an inverse correlation with NPP concentration.EZD is deeper during the summer season and shallower during the wintertime,with a corresponding increase in productivity.Throughout the year,monthly SST shows slight fluctuation for the entire study area,and statistical analysis shows a significant correlation among NPP,and EZD,overall positive between NPP and MLD,whereas no significant correlation among SSS,and SST for the northern BoB.Long-term trends in SST and productivity were significantly po sitive in head bay zones but negatively productive in the open ocean.The findings in this study on the distribution of NPP,SST,SSS,MLD,and EZD and their seasonal variability in five different zones of BoB can be used to further improve the management of marine resources and overall environmental condition in response to climate changes in BoB as they are of utmost relevance to the fisheries for the three bordering countries.

Time series analysis of red tide's disaster characteristics in China seas

The annual frequency of red tides from 1977 to 2012 and the monthly frequency of red tides from 2001 to 2012 in China seas were used to establish the time series of red tide annual frequency and monthly frequency, respectively. The annual frequency fit well with time segments revealed by piecewise linear regression analysis. The seasonal maximum of monthly frequency was in May （-18.22）, and the stochastic volatility tended to increase gradually with time series, with peak values occurring from May to July. Holt exponential smoothing and Holt-winter exponential smoothing were used to predict red tide annual and monthly frequencies, which revealed that the annual frequency of red tides would rise slowly by one time from 2013 to 2020, and that red tides would mainly occur from May to July in 2013-2016 with a peak value of about 25 times in May.

Dynamics of Dimethylsulfide and Dimethylsulfoniopropionate Produced by Phytoplankton in the Chinese Seas - Distribution Patterns and Affecting Factors

Distribution of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and/or particulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSPp) concentrations in the Jiaozhou Bay, Zhifu Bay and East China Sea were investigated during the period of 1994 - 1998. Both DMS and DMSPp levels showed remarkable temporal and spatial variations. High values occurred in the coastal or shelf waters and low values in the offshore waters. The highest levels were observed in spring or summer and lowest in autumn. DMS or DMSPp distribution patterns were associated with water mass on a large geographical scale, while biological and chemical factors were more likely influential on smaller-scale variations. Diatoms could play an important role in total DMS or DMSPp abundance in coastal waters. Nitrate was found to have a two-phase relationship with DMSPp concentrations: positive when nitrate concentration was lower than 1 mumol/L, and negative when it was above. Anthropogenic factors such as sewage input and aquaculture also showed influences on DMS or DMSPp concentration.

Seasonal evolution of the Northern Yellow Sea cold water mass

With the in-situ temperature and salinity observations taken seasonally in the Northern Yellow Sea area during the National 908 Water Investigation and Research Project from 2006 to 2007, the characteristics of the Northern Yellow Sea cold water mass （NYSCWM） were studied, including both its spatial pattern over the whole bottom and historically typical section from Dalian to Chengshantou. Seasonal evolution as well as its spatial distribution was analyzed to further understand the NYSCWM, as a result, some new features about the NYSCWM had been found. Compared to the previous studies, the center of colder water mass in summer moved eastward, but sharing the similar peak values for both temperature and salinity with historical data. In spring, the axis of 32.8 psu saltier moves westward approximately 75 km and the high salinity areas beyond 123.5° E were largely impaired comparing to that in winter. In winter, the NYSCWM almost disappeared due to the reinforced wind-induced mixing and the Yellow Sea Warm Currents （YSWC） moved northward and controlled most of the Northern Yellow Sea region. In autumn, two cold centers with the peak value of 9℃ were found inside the attenuated NYSCWM.

Dissolved Inorganic Arsenic in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea—Distributions and Seasonal Variations

The distributions and seasonal variations of total dissolved inorganic arsenic （TDIAs, [TDIAs] = [As^5＋]＋[As^3＋]） and arsenite （As3.） in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea are presented hero based on the observations of 9 cruises carried out in 2000 - 2003. The study area covers a broad range of hydrographic and chemical properties. The emphasis is put on a southeast transect from Changjiang Estuary to the Ryukyu Islands （i.e. PN section） in the East China Sea to discuss the impact of terrestdal input on the marginal seas of China. Arsenic species （TDlAs and arsenite） are determined by selective hydride generation - atomic fluorescence spectrometry （HG-AFS）. TDIAs concentrations were high in the coastal area of Changjiang Estuary and decreased slightly towards the shelf region. High concentratiOns of TDIAs were also existed in the near bottom layer of shelf edge of the East China Sea which indicated another source of arsenic from the incursion of Kuroshio Waters. The seasonal variations of TDIAs in the study area depend on the hydrographic stages of Changjiang and the incursion intensity of Kuroshio Waters. Arsenite showed opposite distributions with TDIAs, with higher concentrations appeared at the surface layer of shelf region, which was positive correlated with the chlorophyll a. Biological conversion of arsenate into arsenite was hypothesized for the observed distribution pattern and its seasonal variations. The stoichoimetric ratios of As to P were estimated to be about 2×10^3 at PN Section in summer. The concentrations of dissolved arsenic in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea were comparable with other areas in the world.

Study on the Seasonal Variation of the Suspended Sediment Distribution and Transportation in the East China Seas Based on SeaWiFS Data

The monthly mean suspended sediment concentration in the upper layer of the East China Seas was derived from the retrieval of the monthly binned SeaWiFS Level 3 data during 1998 to 2006. The seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the suspended sediment concentration in the study area were investigated. It was found that the suspended sediment distribution presents apparent spatial characteristics and seasonal variations, which are mainly affected by the resuspension and transportation of the suspended sediment in the study area. The concentration of suspended sediment is high inshore and low offshore, and river mouths are generally high concentration areas. The suspended sediment covers a much wider area in winter than in summer, and for the same site the concentration is generally higher in winter. In the Yellow and East China Seas the suspended sediment spreads farther to the open sea in winter than in summer, and May and October are the transitional periods of the extension. Winds, waves, currents, thermocline, halocline, pycnocline as well as bottom sediment feature and distribution in the study area are important influencing factors for the distribution pattern. If the 10rag L^-1 contour line is taken as an indicator, it appears that the transportation of suspended sediment can hardly reach 124^o00＇E in summer or 126^o00＇E in winter, which is due to the obstruction of the Taiwan Warm Current and the Kuroshio Current in the southern Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.

Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 climate model projections and their seasonal variability

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent （SIE） from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established. The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average, linear trend of SIE, span of melting season and annual range of SIE. It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models. Six good models （GFDL-CM3, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-LR, ACCESS-1.0, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-AO in turn） are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach. Based on ensemble mean of the six models, we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km2 （defined as the ice-free state） in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario. We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer （melting season） will increase by about I00 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCPS.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21st century. Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring, would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to ＂tipping point＂, or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears. Annual range of SIE （seasonal melting ice extent） will increase almost linearly in the near future 30-40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean, indicating the more ice melting in summer, the more ice freezing in winter, which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.

Effect of sea surface wind on the seasonal variation of sea level in the east of China seas

Sea level seasonal variations in the east of China seas from 2004 to 2006 are simulated by the advanced ROMS model. The results show similar sea level spatial features with TOPEX/Poseidon observations, with annual ranges decreasing gradually from the sea coast to the Kuroshio region. By getting rid of wind stress in ROMS model, the simulated sea level results still show obvious seasonal variations. However, the phenomenon of sea level anomaly disappears in Min Zhe Current Coastwise （MZCF） and Su Bei current coastwise （SBCF）, and the change of it from coastal area to ocean recedes. The seal level difference between Bohai, Yellow Sea （BYS） and East China Sea （ECS） becomes weaker in spring and autumn. The annual differences decrease obviously, and the gradual change of annual ranges from seacoast to the Kuroshio almost disappears. The annual ranges in BYS are nearly identical. The annual range ratio without the wind stress to with the wind stress increases gradually from the sea coast to Kuroshio region.

基于SEAS方法的C^4ISR系统效能评价

首先介绍了SEA及SEA S方法,分析了SEA在C4ISR系统效能评价方面的不足,指出了SEA S方法更适合用于评价C4ISR系统的效能;接着提出了利用SEA S方法对C4ISR系统效能评价的三种任务模式:单一任务模式,交战任务模式,规模作战任务模式;之后结合具体案例论述了SEA S方法评价C4ISR系统的过程;最后给出了SEA S评价结果及分析方法。

Contributions of Overseas Chinese Merchants in South Seas to the Development of Shanghai's International Trade in Modern Times

Contributions of Overseas Chinese Merchants in South Seas to the Development of Shanghai's International Trade in Modern

Seasonal Change of Steric Sea Level in the GIN Seas

The Greenland Sea,Iceland Sea,and Norwegian Sea (GIN seas) form the main channel connecting the Arctic Ocean with other Oceans,where significant water and energy exchange take place,and play an important role in global climate change.In this study steric sea level,associated with temperature and salinity,in the GIN seas is examined based on analysis of the monthly temperature and salinity fields from Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC3.0).A method proposed by Tabata et al.is used to calculate steric sea level,in which,steric sea level change due to thermal expansion and haline contraction is termed as the thermosteric component (TC) and the halosteric component (SC),recpectively.Total steric sea level (TSSL) change is the sum of TC and SC.The study shows that SC is making more contributions than TC to the seasonal change of TSSL in the Greenland Sea,whereas TC contributes more in the Norwegian and the Iceland Seas.Annual variation of TSSL is larger than 50 mm over most regions of the GIN Seas,and can be larger than 200 mm at some locations such as 308 mm at 76.5 N,12.5 E and 246 mm at 77.5 N,17.5 W.

Relative Roles of Intraseasonal and Above-seasonal Components in the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Multi-scale contributions are involved in the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)onset process.The relative roles of intraseasonal oscillation and above-seasonal component in the year-to-year variation of the SCSSM onset are evaluated in this study.The 30-90-day and above-90-day components are major contributors to the year-to-year variation of the SCSSM onset,and the former contributes greater portion,while the 8-30-day component has little contribution to the onset.In the early onset cases,the 30-90-day westerly winds move and extend eastward from the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)to the SCS monsoon region relatively earlier,and replace the easterly winds over the SCS with the cooperation of the 30-90-day cyclone moving southward from northern East Asia.The westerly anomalies of the above-90-day component in spring jointly contribute to the early SCSSM onset.In the late onset cases,the late eastward expansion of 30-90-day westerly wind over the TIO,accompanied by the late occurrence and weakening of the 30-90-day anticyclone over the SCS,and its late withdraw from the SCS,as well as the persistent easterly anomalies of above-90-day component,suppress the SCSSM onset.However,the SCSSM outbreaks in the obvious weakening stage of 30-90-day easterly anomalies.The easterlies-to-westerlies transition of the 30-90-day 850-hPa zonal wind over the SCS in spring is closely associated with sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific in preceding winter and spring,while the interannual variation of the above-90-day zonal wind in April-May is closely related to the decaying stage of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation events.

Overseas Chinese Charity Foundation of China Participated in International Cooperation of Epidemic Prevention and Control

Overseas Chinese Charity Foundation of China(OCCFC)has actively responded to the Joint Action for Defeating the COVID-19 within the Framework of the Silk Road Community Building Initiative launched by China NGO Network for International Exchanges,joined hands with overseas Chinese and local Federations of Returned Overseas Chinese,and actively carried out activities to help overseas Chinese fight COVID-19,and made efforts to help and warm overseas Chinese.