Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Multi-Component System Considering Maintenance:Subsea Christmas Tree System as A Case Study

Maintenance is an important technical measure to maintain and restore the performance status of equipment and ensure the safety of the production process in industrial production,and is an indispensable part of prediction and health management.However,most of the existing remaining useful life(RUL)prediction methods assume that there is no maintenance or only perfect maintenance during the whole life cycle;thus,the predicted RUL value of the system is obviously lower than its actual operating value.The complex environment of the system further increases the difficulty of maintenance,and its maintenance nodes and maintenance degree are limited by the construction period and working conditions,which increases the difficulty of RUL prediction.An RUL prediction method for a multi-omponent system based on the Wiener process considering maintenance is proposed.The performance degradation model of components is established by a dynamic Bayesian network as the initial model,which solves the uncertainty of insufficient data problems.Based on the experience of experts,the degree of degradation is divided according to Poisson process simulation random failure,and different maintenance strategies are used to estimate a variety of condition maintenance factors.An example of a subsea tree system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Combinatorial reasoning-based abnormal sensor recognition method for subsea production control system

The subsea production system is a vital equipment for offshore oil and gas production.The control system is one of the most important parts of it.Collecting and processing the signals of subsea sensors is the only way to judge whether the subsea production control system is normal.However,subsea sensors degrade rapidly due to harsh working environments and long service time.This leads to frequent false alarm incidents.A combinatorial reasoning-based abnormal sensor recognition method for subsea production control system is proposed.A combinatorial algorithm is proposed to group sensors.The long short-term memory network(LSTM)is used to establish a single inference model.A counting-based judging method is proposed to identify abnormal sensors.Field data from an offshore platform in the South China Sea is used to demonstrate the effect of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can identify the abnormal sensors effectively.

Metal Sealing Performance of Subsea X-tree Wellhead Connector Sealer

The metal sealing performance of subsea X-tree wellhead connectors is crucial for the safety and reliability of subsea X-trees. In order to establish the theoretical relation between metal sealing ring＇s contact stress and its structural parameters and working pressure, a mechanical analysis method for double-cone sealing of high pressure vessels is applied in analyzing the metal sealing ring under the condition of preload and operation. As a result, the formula of the unit sealing load for the metal sealing ring under operation with residual preload is shown in this paper, which ensures that the metal sealing ring has an excellent sealing effect and can prevent the metal sealing ring from yielding. Besides, while analyzing the sealing process of the metal sealing ring, the change rule of contact stress and working pressure is concluded here, putting forward that the structural parameters of the metal sealing ring are the major factors affecting the change rule. Finally, the analytical solution through theoretical analysis is compared with the simulation result through finite element analysis in a force feedback experiment, and both are consistent with each other, which fully verifies for the design and calculation theory on metal sealing ring＇s contact stress and its structural parameters and working pressure deduced in this paper. The proposed research will be treated as an applicable theory guiding the design of metal seal for subsea X-tree wellhead connectors.

Stress Analysis of the Subsea Dynamic Riser BaseProcess Piping

Thesubsea dynamic riser base （SDRB） is an important piece of equipment for the floating production platform mooring system.One end is connected to the rigid pipeline, carrying a rigid pipeline thermal expansion load and the other end is connected to a flexible riser, carrying the dynamic load of the flexible riser, so its function is a transition connection between the flexible riser and the rigid pipeline which fixes the flexible riser on the seabed. On the other hand. as a typical subsea product, the design will satisfythe requirements of the standards for subsea products. By studying the stress analysisphilosophy of the topside piping and subsea pipeline, a physical model and procedure for piping stress analysis of the SDRB have been established.The conditions of the adverse design load have been considered, and a combination of the static load from the rigid pipeline and the dynamic load flexibility has also been optimized. And a comparative analysis between the AMSE, DNV and API standards for piping stress with the checking rules has been done.Because theSDRB belongs to the subsea pipeline terminal product, the use of DNV standards to check its process piping stress is recommended. Finally, the process piping stress of the SDRB has been calculated, and the results show that the jacket pipe and the carrier pipe stress of the SDRB process piping satisfy the DNV standards as a whole.The bulkhead cannot be accurately simulated by the AutoPIPE software which uses the FEA software ANSYS inthe detailed analysis, but the checking results will still meet the requirements of the DNV standards.

Installation Strength Analysis of Subsea Flowline Jumpers

A subsea flowline jumper （FJ） is a basic connected component for the wet oil tree, subsea pipeline and riser base, and it plays an irreplaceable role in the subsea production system. During the installation of FJ, collisions often happen between FJ and other equipment, which may cause serious damage. Besides, as the operating water depth increases, the demand for the installation equipments, such as the crane and winch, will increase. The research of deepwater FJ installation in China is still in the primary stage, thus an installation method for the deepwater FJ is proposed in this paper. Finite element models of a typical M-shaped FJ installation system are built to simulate the installation procedures. Analysis results show that the installation steps designed are feasible and valid for the deepwater FJ. In order to ensure the safety of the installation process, the collision-sensitive analysis for the FJ is conducted, and results show that it is necessary to set the pick up speed at a proper value, in order to avoid collision in the installation process. Besides, the mechanical characteristics of FJ during the installation are investigated under a range of environmental conditions and it is found that the maximum stress of the FJ always happens at its central position. The basic requirements for the installation equipment are also obtained through the analysis of the main installation steps.

Optimization of mining method in subsea deep gold mines: A case study

The mining method optimization in subsea deep gold mines was studied. First, an index system for subsea mining method selection was established based on technical feasibility, security status, economic benefit, and management complexity. Next, an evaluation matrix containing crisp numbers and triangular fuzzy numbers(TFNs) was constructed to describe quantitative and qualitative information simultaneously. Then, a hybrid model combining fuzzy theory and the Tomada de Decis?o Interativa Multicritério(TODIM) method was proposed. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed approach was validated by an illustrative example of selecting the optimal mining method in the Sanshandao Gold Mine(China). The robustness of this approach was demonstrated through a sensitivity analysis. The results show that the proposed hybrid TODIM method is reliable and stable for choosing the optimal mining method in subsea deep gold mines and provides references for mining method optimization in other similar undersea mines.

A Seismic Design Method for Subsea Pipelines Against Earthquake Fault Movement

As there are no specific guidelines on design of subsea pipelines crossing active seismic faults, methods for land buried pipelines have been applied to. Taking the large seismic fault movement into account, this paper proposes improved methods for seismic designs of subsea pipelines by comprehensively investigating the real constraining of soil on the pipelines, the interaction processes of soil with the pipeline, the plastic slippage of the soil, and the elastic-plastic properties of the pipeline materials. New formulas are given to calculate the length of transition section and its total elongation. These formulas are more reasonable in mechanism, and more practical for seismic design of subsea pipelines crossing active faults.

A Finite Element Based Study on Lowering Operation of Subsea Massive Structure

Subsea production system has been increasingly used in recent South China Sea offshore developments. With deepwater applications, constituent parts of subsea systems become more complicated and enlarged. Increases on the weight and geometry of each component bring challenges to installations. A recent accomplished deployment on a subsea massive jumper shows the weight and length have been up to 120 tons and 90 m, respectively with sophi- sticated geometry. It is considerably difficult to install heavy and large subsea structures, especially in South China Sea where severe environmental conditions are common. In addition, deepwater deployment may alter natural frequency of the hoisting system and the altered frequency may be close to possible environmental conditions. To deal with the above two issues, traditionally, engineers need to carry out series of complicated numerical analyses which are on case basis and significantly time-consuming. Existing studies focus on the optimization on analysis techniques by conducting laboratory testing and numerical simulations. However, easy-to-use guidance on massive subsea structure installation are somewhat limited. The studies presented in this paper aim to achieve a simplified guidance which can briefly screen the cases subject to axial resonance and provide visible correlations between hoisting system integrity and key installation parameters.

Design and Experimental Investigation for Subsea Control Module Test System

As a core part of subsea production systems,subsea control modules(SCMs)are costly,difficult,and expensive to install and inconvenient to use in underwater maintenance.Therefore,performance and function tests must be carried out before launching SCMs.This study developed a testing device and an SCM test by investigating SCMs and their underwater.The testing device includes four parts:a hydraulic station,an SCM test stand,a signal generating device,and an electronic test unit.First,the basic indices of the testing device were determined from the performance and working parameters of the SCM.Second,the design scheme of the testing device for the SCM was tentatively proposed,and each testing device was designed.Finally,a practical measurement of the SCM,in combination with the hydraulic station,SCM test stand,signal generator,electronic unit,and highpressure water tank,was carried out according to the test requirements.The measurement mainly involved equipment inspection before testing and an experimental test for the SCM.The validity and feasibility of the testing device and method were simultaneously verified through an association test.

Dynamic Simulation and Tension Compensation Research on Subsea Umbilical Cable Laying System

For studying the dynamic performance of subsea umbilical cable laying system and achieving the goal of cable tension and laying speed control,the rigid finite element method is used to discrete and transform the system into a rigid-flexible coupling multi-body system which consists of rigid elements and spring-damping elements.The mathematical model of subsea umbilical cable laying system kinematic chain is presented with the second order Lagrange equation in the joint coordinate system,and dynamic modeling and simulation is performed with ADAMS.The dynamic analysis is conducted assuming the following three statuses:ideal laying,practical laying under wave disturbance,and practical laying with tension compensation.Results show that motion disturbances of the laying budge under sea waves,especially with heaving and pitching,will cause relatively serious fluctuations in cable tension and laying speed.Tension compensation,i.e.,active back tension torque control can restrict continuous tension increasing or decreasing effectively and rapidly,thus avoiding cable breach or buckling.

Grouting techniques for the unfavorable geological conditions of Xiang'an subsea tunnel in China

One of the major challenges during subsea tunnel construction is to seal the potential water inflow. Thepaper presents a case study of Xiang＇an subsea tunnel in Xiamen, the first subsea tunnel in China. Duringits construction, different grades of weathered geomaterials were encountered, which was the challengingissue for this project. To deal with these unfavorable geological conditions, grouting was adoptedas an important measure for ground treatment. The grouting mechanism is first illustrated by introducinga typical grouting process. Then the site-specific grouting techniques employed in the Xiang＇ansubsea tunnel are elaborated. By using this ground reinforcement technique, the tunneling safety of theXiang＇an subsea tunnel was guaranteed. 2014 Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Production and hosting byElsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanical Behavior and Shape Optimization of Lining Structure for Subsea Tunnel Excavated in Weathered Slot

Subsea tunnel lining structures should be designed to sustain the loads transmitted from surrounding ground and groundwater during excavation. Extremely high pore-water pressure reduces the effective strength of the country rock that surrounds a tunnel, thereby lowering the arching effect and stratum stability of the structure. In this paper, the mechanical behavior and shape optimization of the lining structure for the Xiang＇an tunnel excavated in weathered slots are examined. Eight cross sections with different geometric parameters are adopted to study the mechanical behavior and shape optimization of the lining structure. The hyperstatic reaction method is used through finite element analysis software ANSYS. The mechanical behavior of the lining structure is evidently affected by the geometric parameters of crosssectional shape. The minimum safety factor of the lining structure elements is set to be the objective function. The efficient tunnel shape to maximize the minimum safety factor is identified. The minimum safety factor increases significantly after optimization. The optimized cross section significantly improves the mechanical characteristics of the lining structure and effectively reduces its deformation. Force analyses of optimization process and program are conducted parametrically so that the method can be applied to the optimization design of other similar structures. The results obtained from this study enhance our understanding of the mechanical behavior of the lining structure for subsea tunnels. These results are also beneficial to the optimal design of lining structures in general.

Collapse Analysis of Imperfect Subsea Pipelines Based on 2D High-Order Nonlinear Model

To study the collapse of imperfect subsea pipelinos, a 2D high-order nonlinear model is developed. In this model, the large deformation of the pipes is considered by raiaining the high-order nonlinear terms of strain. In addi-tion, the J2 plastic flow theory is adopted to describe the elasioplastic constitutive relations of material. The quasi-static process of collapse is analyzed by the increment method. For each load step, the equations based on the principle of virtual work are presented and solved by the discrete Newton＇s method. Furthermore, finite element simulations and full-scale experiments were preformed to validate the results of the model. Research on the major influencing factors of collapse pressure, including D/t, material type and initial ovality, is also presented.

Uncertain Multidisciplinary Design Optimization on Next Generation Subsea Production System by Using Surrogate Model and Interval Method

The innovative Next Generation Subsea Production System(NextGen SPS)concept is a newly proposed petroleum development solution in ultra-deep water areas.The definition of NextGen SPS involves several disciplines,which makes the design process difficult.In this paper,the definition of NextGen SPS is modeled as an uncertain multidisciplinary design optimization(MDO)problem.The deterministic optimization model is formulated,and three concerning disciplines—cost calculation,hydrodynamic analysis and global performance analysis are presented.Surrogate model technique is applied in the latter two disciplines.Collaborative optimization(CO)architecture is utilized to organize the concerning disciplines.A deterministic CO framework with two disciplinelevel optimizations is proposed firstly.Then the uncertainties of design parameters and surrogate models are incorporated by using interval method,and uncertain CO frameworks with triple loop and double loop optimization structure are established respectively.The optimization results illustrate that,although the deterministic MDO result achieves higher reduction in objective function than the uncertain MDO result,the latter is more reliable than the former.

Service Life Prediction of Lining Concrete of Subsea Tunnel under Combined Compressive Load and Carbonation

Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay subsea tunnel is the second self-built tunnel in China with the designed service life over 100 years.The durability of lining concrete are one of an important factors to determinate the service life of tunnel.Considering the main environmental loads and mechanical loads of subsea tunnel,the durability properties of lining concrete under combined action of compressive load and carbonation has been studied through the critical compressive load test,accelerated carbonation test,natural carbonation test and capillary suction test.The tests results show that critical compressive load apparently accelerates the carbonation and deteriorates the anti-permeability of concrete.Under the combined action of critical compressive load and carbonation,the durability of lining concrete decreases.Based on the carbonization life criteria and research results,for the high-performance concrete with proposed mix ratio,the predicted service life of lining concrete for Jiaozhou bay subsea tunnel is about 80 years which fails to reach the required service life.It is necessary to adopt other measurements simultaneously to improve the durability of lining concrete.

Durability of Lining Concrete of Subsea Tunnel under Combined Action of Freeze-thaw Cycle and Carbonation

Through the fast freeze-thaw cycle test,accelerated carbonation test,and natural carbonation test,the durability performance of lining concrete under combined action of freeze-thaw cycle and carbonation were studied.The experimental results indicate that freeze-thaw cycle apparently accelerates the process of concrete carbonation and carbonation deteriorates the freeze resistance of concrete.Under the combined action of freeze-thaw cycle and carbonation,the durability of lining concrete decreases.The carbonation depth of lining concrete at tunnel openings under freeze-thaw cycles and tunnel condition was predicted.For the high performance concrete with proposed mix ratio,the lining concrete tends to be unsafe because predicted carbonation depth exceeds the thickness of reinforced concrete protective coating.Adopting other measurements simultaneously to improve the durability of lining concrete at the tunnel openings is essential.

Structure Design and Optimization of a New Type of Subsea Pipeline Connector

The basic configuration of a new type of subsea pipeline connector was proposed based on the press-fitting principle, and a parametric finite element model was created using APDL language in ANSYS. Combining the finite element model and optimization technology, the dimension optimization aiming at obtaining the minimum loading force and the optimum sealing performance was designed by the zero order optimization method. Experiments of the optimized connector were carried out. The results indicate that the optimum structural design significantly improved the indicators of the minimum loading force and sealing performance of the connector.

Real-time Monitoring of Subsea Gas Pipelines,Offshore Platforms,and Ship Inspection Scores Using an Automatic Identification System

The aim of this research is to develop an algorithm and application that can perform real-time monitoring of the safety operation of offshore platforms and subsea gas pipelines as well as determine the need for ship inspection using data obtained from automatic identification system(AIS).The research also focuses on the integration of shipping database,AIS data,and others to develop a prototype for designing a real-time monitoring system of offshore platforms and pipelines.A simple concept is used in the development of this prototype,which is achieved by using an overlaying map that outlines the coordinates of the offshore platform and subsea gas pipeline with the ship’s coordinates(longitude/latitude)as detected by AIS.Using such information,we can then build an early warning system(EWS)relayed through short message service(SMS),email,or other means when the ship enters the restricted and exclusion zone of platforms and pipelines.The ship inspection system is developed by combining several attributes.Then,decision analysis software is employed to prioritize the vessel’s four attributes,including ship age,ship type,classification,and flag state.Results show that the EWS can increase the safety level of offshore platforms and pipelines,as well as the efficient use of patrol boats in monitoring the safety of the facilities.Meanwhile,ship inspection enables the port to prioritize the ship to be inspected in accordance with the priority ranking inspection score.

Dynamic Analysis of A Subsea Suspended Manifold Going Through Splash Zone During Installation

The subsea suspended manifold designed to replace the traditional foundation structure with the buoys is a new generation subsea production system that can be suspended at a certain height from the seafloor and rapidly recycled by its own buoyancy.Due to complex environmental conditions,its hydrodynamic performance in the splash zone is extremely important for the safety of the whole installation process.In this paper,the mathematical model for the dynamic analysis of the seawater ingress process of the single-layer pre-set horizontal cabin is proposed based on the different center of gravity positions of the buoy.Meanwhile,the theoretical analysis of fiber cable is divided into infinite differential units by the discretization method,and the formulae of the horizontal displacement of the subsea suspended manifold are presented.In addition,the simulations are carried out to verify the rules of the dynamic responses on the subsea suspended manifold system with the consideration of the environmental conditions in the South China Sea.Comparing with the calculated value of the mathematical model of the cabin water ingress,the error of the simulation result by use of FLUENT is about 5.47%.Furthermore,the wave height is greater than the current impact on the lowering manifold system and the azimuth angle of the installation vessel is aligned with the direction of the environmental load.

All-Electric Subsea Control Systems and the Effects on Subsea Manifold Valves

Subsea development is moving constantly toward simplification,digitalization,and cost-out strategies because the exploration and production of hydrocarbons are moving toward deeper and remote sea water areas.Usage of all-electric subsea technology instead of hydraulic technology is growing and will be the future of subsea systems due to the former’s environmental and functional advantages and reduced costs.The benefits of all-electric subsea systems are health,safety,and environment(HSE)and improved reliability,flexibility,and functionality compared with traditional hydraulic-electrical systems.Existing electrohydraulic technology for a typical subsea system,hydraulic and electric actuators,and subsea manifold valves including valve types and selection philosophy have been reviewed in this paper.Some major worldwide oil companies such as Equinor and Schlumberger have successful experiences with subsea electric actuators.Considering the benefits of all-electric technology especially in terms of cost and HSE,as well as successful experiences of two major oil companies,further research in this area is warranted.One of the gaps in existing reviewed literature is the effect of using all-electric actuators for manifold valves.Thus,three main questions related to electric actuator selection,requirement of safety integrity level(SIL),and effect of using electric actuators on manifold valve selection have been addressed and answered.Forty hydraulic actuated manifold valves from nine past subsea projects in different parts of the world,mainly Africa and Australia,have been selected for the analysis of all-electric actuators.Results show that 93%of the valves require spring-return electric actuators,whereas 7%can be operated with conventional electric actuators without any spring.The manifold valves do not require SIL certification because they are not connected to an emergency shut down system.Introducing the electric actuators to the manifold valve will not change the valve selection philosophy.