Seasonal Transition of Summer Rainy Season over Indochina and Adjacent Monsoon Region

The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in Indochina, India and the South China Sea is also examined using 5-day mean OLR (1975-87) and 850 hPa wind (1980-88) data. It was found that the onset of summer rainy season begins earlier in the inland region of Indochina (Thailand) in late April to early May than in the coastal region along the Bay of Bengal. This early onset of rainy season is due to pre-monsoon rain under the mid-latitude westerly wind regime. The full summer monsoon circulation begins to establish in mid-May, causing active convective activity both over the west coast of Indochina and the central South China Sea. In case of withdrawal, the earliest retreat of summer rainy season is found in the central northern part of Indochina in late September. The wind field, on the other hand, already changes to easterlies in the northern South China Sea in early September. This easterly wind system covers the eastern part of Indochina where post-monsoon rain is still active. In late October, the wind field turns to winter time situation, but post monsoon rain still continues in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula until late November.

Reconstruction of the starting time series of rainy season in Yunnan and the evolvement of summer monsoon during 1711-1982

According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.

Structure and Propagation Characteristics of Climatological Mean Kinetic Energy of Disturbance of Intraseasonal Oscillation in Asian Summer Monsoon Zone

[Objective] The research aimed to study the structure and propagation characteristics of climatological mean kinetic energy of disturbance of intraseasonal oscillation in Asian summer monsoon zone. [Method] When South China Sea monsoon started to break out, the kinetic energy of intraseasonal oscillation disturbance in the monsoon zone was analyzed, especially the researches about the variation of South China Sea monsoon, the development of Indian monsoon and the advancement of East Asian monsoon. [Result] The developed process of Asian summer monsoon had the close relationship with the kinetic energy activity of 30-60 d low-frequency oscillation disturbance. The kinetic energy of disturbance explained the eruption, occurrence, development and termination of monsoon from the energy angle. It was found that the kinetic energy of disturbance in Arabian Sea zone, Bay of Bengal and South China Sea area was the strongest, especially in Arabian Sea zone. It illustrated that Arabian Sea zone (Somali jet) was the biggest energy source of Asian monsoon. The starting mark of monsoon eruption in the whole Asia was the abrupt eruption of South China Sea monsoon. The eruption of South China Sea monsoon in the middle dekad of May was the westward transmission result of kinetic energy of disturbance on the east sea surface of Philippines. The kinetic energy of disturbance in East Asian monsoon zone had the seasonal northward advancement in summer. The high kinetic energy center of disturbance in Indian monsoon zone changed from one to two. They were respectively in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. [Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for analyzing the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation.

T_(BB) DATA-REVEALED FEATURES OF ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ASIAN SUMMER MONSOOM ESTABLISHMENT

Based on TBB data from Meteorological Institute Research of Japan, study is carried out of the features of seasonal transition of Asian-Australian monsoons and Asian summer monsoon establishment,indicating that the transition begins as early as in April, followed by abrupt change in May-June; the Asian summer monsoon situation is fully established in June. The winter convective center in Sumatra moved steadily northwestward across the "land bridge" of the maritime continent and the Indo-China Peninsula as time goes from winter to summer, thus giving rise to the change in large scale circulations that is responsible for the summer monsoon establishment over SE Asia and India; the South China Sea to the western Pacific summer monsoon onset bears a close relation to the active convection in the Indo China Peninsula and steady eastward retreat of the subtropical TBB high-value band,corresponding to the western Pacific subtropical high.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers over the East Asia in Middle Summers from 2001 to 2016

Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, the western coast of North America and Europe, the ARs over the East Asia have received less attention. In this paper, the characteristics of ARs which affected China in the area 20?–60?N, 95?–165?E in the middle summer season from 2001 to 2016 were investigated by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Multi-functional Transport Satellites-1 R(MTSAT-1 R) infrared data. Totally, 134 ARs occurred during that period, and averagely 8.4 ARs occurred per year. Statistically, 101 ARs were in east-west orientation, and 33 ARs were in north-south orientation, which accounts for about 75% and 25%, respectively. Herein we report the occurrence number, duration time, intensity, length, width, ratio of length to width, and extension orientation of these ARs, which provide the basic information for those who have interest in ARs over the East Asia.

An Analysis of the Spring-to-Summer Transition in the West Central Plains for Application to Long Range Forecasting

The spring-to-summer transition is of special importance in long range forecasting, as the general circulation transitions to a less energetic regime. This affects the Midwestern United States in a profound way, since agriculture is very sensitive to the variability of weather and climate. Beginning at the local scale, surface temperature observations are used from a representative station in the West Central Missouri Plains region in order to identify the shift from late spring to early summer. Using upper-air re-analyses as a supplement, the 500-mb height observations are examined to find a spring-to-summer transition date by tracking the location of a representative contour. Each of these is used to identify spring-to-summer transition date and then statistical analysis is performed on this long-term data set. Finally, teleconnections, specifically the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and blocking are examined in order to quantify interannual variability. It was found that examining these criteria, developed in an earlier study that covered a much shorter time period, produced similar statistics to this 68-year study of spring-to-summer transitions. It was also found that the onset of La Ni?a was associated with hotter summers in the region, a result first found in the earlier study, but this association was much stronger here.

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during El Nino Developing Summer in Comparison with Decaying Summer

The anomalous behavior of the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） in E1 Nifio developing summer is studied based on the composite results of eight major E1 Nifio events during 1979-2013. It is shown that the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards with weak intensity during the developing summer. The anomaly exhibits an intraseasonal variation with a weaker anomaly in June and July and a stronger anomaly in August, indicating that different underlying physical mechanisms may be responsible for the anomalous WPSH during early and late summer periods. In June and July, owing to the cold advection anomaly characterized as a weak northerly anomaly from high latitudes, geopotential height in East Asia is reduced and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards slightly. By contrast, enhanced convection over the warm pool in August makes the atmosphere more sensitive to E1 Nifio forcing. Consequently, a cyclonic anomaly in the western Pacific is induced, which is consistent with the seasonal march of atmospheric circulation from July to August. Accordingly, geopotential height in the western Pacific is reduced significantly, and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards remarkably in August. Different from the developing summer, geopotential height in the decaying summer over East Asia and the western Pacific tends to enhance and extend northwards from June to August consistently, reaching the maximum anomaly in August. Therefore, the seasonal march plays an important role in the WPSH anomaly for both the developing and decaying summer.

Seasonal Variation and Physical Properties of the Cloud System over Southeastern China Derived from Cloud Sat Products

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP） and Climate Prediction Center（CPC） Merged Analysis of Precipitation（CMAP） data and Cloud Sat products, the seasonal variations of the cloud properties, vertical occurrence frequency, and ice water content of clouds over southeastern China were investigated in this study. In the Cloud Sat data, a significant alternation in high or low cloud patterns was observed from winter to summer over southeastern China. It was found that the East Asian Summer Monsoon（EASM） circulation and its transport of moisture leads to a conditional instability, which benefits the local upward motion in summer, and thereby results in an increased amount of high cloud. The deep convective cloud centers were found to coincide well with the northward march of the EASM, while cirrus lagged slightly behind the convection center and coincided well with the outflow and meridional wind divergence of the EASM. Analysis of the radiative heating rates revealed that both the plentiful summer moisture and higher clouds are effective in destabilizing the atmosphere. Moreover, clouds heat the mid-troposphere and the cloud radiative heating is balanced by adiabatic cooling through upward motion, which causes meridional wind by the Sverdrup balance. The cloud heating–forced circulation was observed to coincide well with the EASM circulation, serving as a positive effect on EASM circulation.

A Correction Method Suitable for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

Based on the hindcast results of summer rainfall anomalies over China for the period 1981-2000 by the Dynamical Climate Prediction System （IAP-DCP） developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a correction method that can account for the dependence of model＇s systematic biases on SST anomalies is proposed. It is shown that this correction method can improve the hindcast skill of the IAP-DCP for summer rainfall anomalies over China, especially in western China and southeast China, which may imply its potential application to real-time seasonal prediction.

Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics Associated with the Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

The onset of the Asian summer monsoon has been a focus in the monsoon study for many years. In this paper, we study the variability and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset and demonstrate that this onset is associated with specific atmospheric circulation characteristics. The outbreak of the Asian summer mol）~soon is found to occur first over the southwestern part of the South China Sea （SCS） and the Malay Peninsula region, and the monsoon onset is closely related to intra-seasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere. These intra-seasonal oscillations consist of two low-frequency vortex pairs, one located to the east of the Philippines and the other over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Prior to the Asian summer monsoon onset, a strong low-frequency westerly emerges over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the low-frequency vortex pair develops symmetrically along the equator. The formation and evolution of these low-frequency vortices are important and serve as a good indicator for the Asian summer monsoon onset. The relationship between the northward jumps of the westerly jet over East Asia and the Asian summer monsoon onset over SCS is investigated. It is shown that the northward jump of the westerly jet occurs twice during the transition from winter to summer and these jumps are closely related to the summer monsoon development. The first northward jump （from 25°-28°N to around 30°N） occurs on 8 May on average, about 7 days ahead of the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. It is found that the reverse of meridional temperature gradient in the upper-middle troposphere （500-200 hPa） and the enhancement and northward movement of the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemispheric subtropics are responsible for the first northward jump of the westerly jet.

Dynamic Downscaling of Summer Precipitation Prediction over China in 1998 Using WRF and CCSM4

To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF3.2） regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN ON ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN THE EARLY SUMMER IN EAST ASIA IN 1991

By employing the CCM1(R15L12)long-range spectral model, study is undertaken of the effects of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) for tropical Indian ocean on circulation transformation in the early summer in East Asia in 1991. The results indicate that warmer SSTA contributes to the increasing of the temperature over the Plateau in early summer, resulting in the intensification of tropical easterly jet on 100 hPa and northward shift of Northern Hemisphere subtropical westerly jet in May. It is obviously favorable for the subtropical high enhancement over western Pacific Ocean in May and subtropical westerly jet maintaining at 35～40 °N in June, making the Mei-Yu come earlier and stay over the Changjiang basin in 1991. Furthermore, warmer SSTA is also advantageous to averaged temperature rise in East Asia land region and Nanhai monsoon development. These roles are helpful in accelerating the seasonal transition for East Asia in early summer.

A Review on Seasonal Climate Prediction

The characters of experiments of prediction on monthly mean atmospheric circulation, seasonal predic-tion and seasonal forecast of summer rainfall over China are summarized in the present paper. The results demonstrate that climate prediction can be made only if the time average is taken. However, the improvement of the skill score of seasonal forecasts depends on the studies on physical parameters and mechanisms that are responsible for seasonal anomaly. Finally, the predictability of seasonal forecast of temperature and precipitation is discussed, including effectiveness and accuracy. Key words Seasonal climate prediction - Summer rainfall over China - Predictability Supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences”—Research on the Forma tion Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climate Disasters in China (G199804900) and “ National Key Project”—Studies on Short Term Climate Prediction System in China

Why Was the Strengthening of Rainfall in Summer over the Yangtze River Valley in 2016 Less Pronounced than that in 1998 under Similar Preceding El Nino Events？Role of Midlatitude Circulation in August

It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley （YRV） strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of E1 Nifio, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 E1 Nifio having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016--different to the positive anomaly of 1998.

Mid-West Growing Season Weather

An earlier discussion of the summer northward heat flux at ground level at one location in northwest Iowa, based on observing the winds there over 30 consecutive summers, is extended geographically west to the Rocky Mountains and southward. Also the time-scale is stretched well past 30 years. Evidence cited is the eastward increase in plant size and greenery at constant latitude starting at the mountains, which is easily noticed from Texas to North Dakota. One dynamical element, the Coriolis force, acting on the north and south winds over long time periods helps explain the observations. Conservation of mass is another important ingredient.

Second Summer in NW Indian Ocean

Two independent SST atlases have confirmed that there is a double seasonal signal in the surface layer of the northwestern Indian Ocean. The area enclosed by the 80F isotherm increases from January to a maximum in May followed by a decrease, a cool-down, to August, which has been explained recently. Then there is a second maximum of warm surface area in October/November, called a “second summer” for convenience. A hypothesis is proposed to explain this unusual second summer feature by extrapolating from available data. During July, August and September, the sea level slopes downward from the equator to the north providing a horizontal force to drive the warm surface water accumulated in the equatorial region back into the NW Indian Ocean basin. New observations are needed to check up on the hypothesis.

Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall

Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.

夏闲季不同耕作措施对旱地麦田土壤养分含量和酶活性的影响

为明确夏闲季不同耕作措施对旱地麦田土壤理化特性和酶活性的影响,基于2018年开始设置在黄土高原与黄淮海平原交汇处典型旱作区洛宁县小界乡的夏闲季定位耕作管理大区试验,2020—2022年研究了传统翻耕(CT)、一次深翻(DT)、免耕覆盖(NTM)、深松覆盖(STM)和深松垄沟覆盖(SRFM)5种夏闲季耕作措施对旱地麦田土壤三相比、养分含量和酶活性的影响。结果表明,优化夏闲季耕作措施可改善旱地麦田土壤三相比,提高土壤养分含量和酶活性,总体以SRFM效果最好。与CT相比,STM和SRFM的三相比R值显著降低4.7%~28.2%和10.9%~33.7%,DT、STM和SRFM在0~40 cm土层土壤全氮含量分别提高2.8%~11.2%、11.7%~21.4%和15.6%~30.6%,有效磷含量分别提高6.9%~39.5%、7.4%~68.8%和13.6%~80.3%,速效钾含量分别提高5.2%~19.7%、9.6%~25.8%和13.8%~35.0%;土壤蔗糖酶活性分别提高7.8%~21.5%、17.1%~75.9%和27.9%~99.1%,脲酶活性分别提高7.6%~97.0%、12.8%~165.5%和23.5%~194.9%,过氧化氢酶活性分别提高5.5%~15.2%、16.3%~26.7%和20.8%~50.3%,增幅多达到显著水平且表现为SRFM>STM>DT,NTM可显著提高0~10 cm土层但降低20~40 cm土层土壤养分含量和酶活性。综合来看,夏闲季深松垄沟并结合秸秆覆盖的措施可改善土壤三相比,提高土壤养分含量和酶活性,是利于提高旱地麦田土壤质量的耕作措施。

云南区域夏季风雨季爆发前后大气热源和云量特征

本研究应用2001~2020年欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料(ERA5)的气象场及卫星反演的降水和云量资料,研究了云南区域夏季风雨季爆发前后大气热源和云量的气候特征。研究结果表明:(1)云南区域的大气热源和云量会受夏季风环流的强烈影响,有着明显的逐月变化。6月受来自孟加拉湾东部的西南气流水汽输送影响,云南季风雨季爆发,大气总热源(特别是降水凝结释放的潜热)和云量较4~5月明显增强,而地表感热和大气辐射冷却作用减小。(2)基于Wang and LinHo(2002)方法计算的2001~2020年期间云南夏季风雨季的平均爆发时间约为第31候,区域大气总热源(潜热)和云量均与降水呈现出高度的时间相关性,而且云南区域大气热源和云量随夏季风雨季的时间变化呈现出与相邻的南亚热带季风区相似的单峰年变化特征。(3)云南夏季风雨季爆发时间存在明显的年际变化,雨季爆发偏早(晚)年的合成结果表明:在偏早年雨季爆发时,来自孟加拉湾东南部的低层西南气流可直达云南区域,该区域上空为辐散气流,有利于区域上升运动,云南区域大气总热源(潜热)和云量明显强于偏晚年;偏晚年同时段的孟加拉湾南支槽偏弱,西太平洋副高位置明显偏西,不利于云南区域上升运动和降水。在雨季盛期,偏早和偏晚年的区域降水率接近,偏晚年的区域大气总热源(潜热)和高云量值略高于偏早年。