Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is used to form perturbed tendency in the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency(SPPT) scheme, was inflated in regions with evident convective activity(f-inflated SPPT). Lastly, the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization(SPP) scheme with 14 perturbed parameters selected from the planetary boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and cumulus convection parameterizations was added. Overall, all these methods improved forecasts more significantly for non-intensifying than intensifying TCs. Compared with f-inflated SPPT,the spatially correlated SST perturbations generally showed comparable performance but were more(less) skillful for intensifying(non-intensifying) TCs. The advantages of the spatially correlated SST perturbations and f-inflated SPPT were mainly present in the deterministic guidance for both TC track and wind and in the probabilistic guidance for reliability of wind. For intensifying TCs, adding SPP led to mixed impacts with significant improvements in probability-matched mean of modest winds and in probabilistic forecasts of rainfall;while for non-intensifying TCs, adding SPP frequently led to positive impacts on the deterministic guidance for track, intensity, strong winds, and moderate rainfall and on the probabilistic guidance for wind and discrimination of rainfall.

Gyrokinetic simulation of magnetic-island-induced electric potential vortex mode

Ion temperature gradient(ITG)-driven turbulence with embedded static magnetic islands is simulated by utilizing a gyrokinetic theory-based global turbulence transport code(GKNET)in this work.Different from the traditional equilibrium circular magnetic-surface average(EMSA)method,an advanced algorithm that calculates the perturbed magnetic-surface average(PMSA)of the electric potential has been developed to precisely deal with the zonal flow component in a non-circular magnetic surface perturbed by magnetic islands.Simulations show that the electric potential vortex structure inside islands induced by the magnetic islands is usually of odd parity when using the EMSA method.It is found that the odd symmetry vortex can transfer into an even one after a steep zonal flow gradient,i.e.the flow shear has been built in the vicinity of the magnetic islands by adopting the PMSA algorithm.The phase of the potential vortex in the poloidal cross section is coupled with the zonal flow shear.Such an electric potential vortex mode may be of essential importance in wide topics,such as the turbulence spreading across magnetic islands,neoclassical tearing mode physics,and also the interaction dynamics between the micro-turbulence and MHD activities.

APPROXIMATION OF INTERVAL BEZIER SURFACES

Based on the conception of perturbation, an approach to the interval Bezier surfaces approximating ra- tional surfaces is presented using the energy minimization method. The method places more restrictions on the perturbation surfaces than the original surfaces. The applications of the approach are also presented. Experimen- tal result is combined with the subdivision method to obtain a piecewise interval polynomial approximation for a rational surface.

Brittle-plastic Theory and Identification of Material Properties for Elastoplastic Structure

The paper is concerned with brittle plastic problems. A formulation of damage surface perturbation is proposed. The regularized least square methods for solving the inverse problems of elastoplastic rock structures have been proposed. The techniques have been applied to some specific examples which give the evidence that the method is satisfactory and efficient.