Lubricant diagnosis serves as a crucial accordance for condition-based maintenance(CBM)involving oil changing and wear examination of critical parts in equipment.However,the accuracy of traditional end-to-end diagnosi...Lubricant diagnosis serves as a crucial accordance for condition-based maintenance(CBM)involving oil changing and wear examination of critical parts in equipment.However,the accuracy of traditional end-to-end diagnosis models is often limited by the inconsistency and random fluctuations in multiple monitoring indicators.To address this,an attribute-driven adaptive diagnosis method is developed,involving three attributes:physicochemical,contamination,and wear.Correspondingly,a fuzzy fault tree(termed FFT)-based model is constructed containing the logic correlations from monitoring indicators to attributes and to lubricant failures.In particular,inference rules are integrated to mitigate conflicts arising from the reverse degradation of multiple indicators.With this model,the lubricant conditions can be accurately assessed through rule-based reasoning.Furthermore,to enhance its intelligence,the model is dynamically optimized with lubricant analysis knowledge and monitoring data.For verification,the developed model is tested with lubricant samples from both the fatigue experiment and actual aero-engines.Fatigue experiments reveal that the proposed model can improve the lubricant diagnosis accuracy from 73.4%to 92.6%compared with the existing methods.While for the engine lubricant test,a high accuracy of 90%was achieved.展开更多
For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertaint...For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.展开更多
In this paper the fault tolerant synchronization of two chaotic systems based on fuzzy model and sample data is investigated. The problem of fault tolerant synchronization is formulated to study the global asymptotica...In this paper the fault tolerant synchronization of two chaotic systems based on fuzzy model and sample data is investigated. The problem of fault tolerant synchronization is formulated to study the global asymptotical stability of the error system with the fuzzy sampled-data controller which contains a state feedback controller and a fault compensator. The synchronization can be achieved no matter whether the fault occurs or not. To investigate the stability of the error system and facilitate the design of the fuzzy sampled-data controller, a Takagi Sugeno （T-S） fuzzy model is employed to represent the chaotic system dynamics. To acquire good performance and produce a less conservative analysis result, a new parameter-dependent Lyapunov-Krasovksii functional and a relaxed stabilization technique are considered. The stability conditions based on linear matrix inequality are obtained to achieve the fault tolerant synchronization of the chaotic systems. Finally, a numerical simulation is shown to verify the results.展开更多
During the past decade, coal dust and gas explosions have been the most two serious types of disasters in China, threatening the lives of miners and causing significant losses in terms of national property. In this pa...During the past decade, coal dust and gas explosions have been the most two serious types of disasters in China, threatening the lives of miners and causing significant losses in terms of national property. In this paper, an evaluation model of coal dust and gas explosions was constructed based on a fuzzy fault tree by taking the Xingli Coal Mine as a research site to identify the risk factors of coal dust and gas explosions.Furthermore, the hazards associated with such explosions were evaluated for this particular coal mine.After completing an on-site investigation, the fuzzy probabilities of basic events were obtained through expert scoring, and these expert opinions were then aggregated as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the degrees of importance of all basic events. Finally, these degrees of importance were sorted. According to the resulting order, the basic events with higher probabilities were determined to identify key hazards in the daily safety management of this particular coal mine. Moreover, effective measures for preventing gas and coal dust explosions were derived. The fuzzy fault tree analysis method is of high significance in the analysis of accidental coal mine explosions and provides theoretical guidance for improving the efficiency of coal mine safety management in a scientific and feasible manner.展开更多
Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a ...Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.展开更多
Considering that the fault phenomenon of the power head cannot feed under actual working conditions,fuzzy mathematics theory is introduced into fault tree analysis(FTA)according to the structural characteristics of hy...Considering that the fault phenomenon of the power head cannot feed under actual working conditions,fuzzy mathematics theory is introduced into fault tree analysis(FTA)according to the structural characteristics of hydraulic system of anchor drilling rigs in this paper.The triangle fuzzy number is used to describe the fault probability of the basic event,the fuzzy probability importance of the basic event is calculated,and the basic events are sorted by comparing the magnitude of the fuzzy probability importance.The results show that the gear wear of auxiliary oil pump,suction phenomena of gear pump,wear and leakage of No.1 and No.3 pumps are the key factors leading to power head failure.In order to improve the overall reliability of the hydraulic system,fault diagnosis and maintenance decisions provide a theoretical basis.展开更多
Conventional fault tree and reliability analysis do not reflect the characteristics of basic events as non stationary and ergodic process. To overcome these drawbacks, theory of fuzzy sets is employed to run fault tre...Conventional fault tree and reliability analysis do not reflect the characteristics of basic events as non stationary and ergodic process. To overcome these drawbacks, theory of fuzzy sets is employed to run fault tree analysis(FTA) of roller oscillating tooth gear drive(ROTGD), the relative frequencies of basic events are considered as symmetrical normal fuzzy numbers, from the logical relationship between different events in the fault tree and fuzzy operators AND and OR, fuzzy probability of top event is solved. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate a real ROTGD system.展开更多
Being one of the most expensive components of an electrical power plant, the failures of a power transformer can result in serious power system issues. So fault diagnosis for power transformer is highly important to e...Being one of the most expensive components of an electrical power plant, the failures of a power transformer can result in serious power system issues. So fault diagnosis for power transformer is highly important to ensure an uninterrupted power supply. Due to information transmission mistakes as well as arisen errors while processing data in surveying and monitoring state information of transformer, uncertain and incomplete information may be produced. Based on these points, this paper presents an intelligent fault diagnosis method of power transformer using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FTA) and beta distribution for failure possibility estimation. By using the technique we proposed herein, the continuous attribute values are transformed into the fuzzy numbers to give a realistic estimate of failure possibility of a basic event in FTA. Further, it explains a new approach based on Euclidean distance between fuzzy numbers, to rank the basic events in accordance with their Fuzzy Importance Index.展开更多
In the past, the probabilities of basic events were described as triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy number that cannot characterize the common distribution of the primary events in engineering, and the fault tree analyze...In the past, the probabilities of basic events were described as triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy number that cannot characterize the common distribution of the primary events in engineering, and the fault tree analyzed by fuzzy set theory did not include repeated basic events. This paper presents a new method to analyze the fault tree by using normal fuzzy number to describe the fuzzy probability of each basic event which is more suitably used to analyze the reliability in safety systems, and then the formulae of computing the fuzzy probability of the top event of the fault tree which includes repeated events are derived. Finally, an example is given.展开更多
Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy impor...Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy importance analysis of the basic event is proposed as well. A practical example is given. This method is a new way to solve the obscure problems of fault tree analysis and has great value in engineering practice.展开更多
The traditional triangular fuzzy fault tree prediction model adopts the linear approximation method.Therefore,the accident prediction error is large.Based on the analysis of the error sources and the fuzzy set,the pre...The traditional triangular fuzzy fault tree prediction model adopts the linear approximation method.Therefore,the accident prediction error is large.Based on the analysis of the error sources and the fuzzy set,the precise calculation method of the event at the top of the fault tree is given.By using the numerical calculation software,an accurate calculation method of nonlinear triangular fuzzy accident prediction was adopted to predict lithium battery air transport fire accidents,and the fuzzy importance of the cause event was calculated.展开更多
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52275126 and 52105159)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Shaanxi Province,China(No.2024GX-YBXM-292).
文摘Lubricant diagnosis serves as a crucial accordance for condition-based maintenance(CBM)involving oil changing and wear examination of critical parts in equipment.However,the accuracy of traditional end-to-end diagnosis models is often limited by the inconsistency and random fluctuations in multiple monitoring indicators.To address this,an attribute-driven adaptive diagnosis method is developed,involving three attributes:physicochemical,contamination,and wear.Correspondingly,a fuzzy fault tree(termed FFT)-based model is constructed containing the logic correlations from monitoring indicators to attributes and to lubricant failures.In particular,inference rules are integrated to mitigate conflicts arising from the reverse degradation of multiple indicators.With this model,the lubricant conditions can be accurately assessed through rule-based reasoning.Furthermore,to enhance its intelligence,the model is dynamically optimized with lubricant analysis knowledge and monitoring data.For verification,the developed model is tested with lubricant samples from both the fatigue experiment and actual aero-engines.Fatigue experiments reveal that the proposed model can improve the lubricant diagnosis accuracy from 73.4%to 92.6%compared with the existing methods.While for the engine lubricant test,a high accuracy of 90%was achieved.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51875073).
文摘For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 50977008,60774048,and 60774093)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2009AA04Z127)+1 种基金the Special Grant of Financial Support from China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 200902547)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (Grant No. 200801451096)
文摘In this paper the fault tolerant synchronization of two chaotic systems based on fuzzy model and sample data is investigated. The problem of fault tolerant synchronization is formulated to study the global asymptotical stability of the error system with the fuzzy sampled-data controller which contains a state feedback controller and a fault compensator. The synchronization can be achieved no matter whether the fault occurs or not. To investigate the stability of the error system and facilitate the design of the fuzzy sampled-data controller, a Takagi Sugeno （T-S） fuzzy model is employed to represent the chaotic system dynamics. To acquire good performance and produce a less conservative analysis result, a new parameter-dependent Lyapunov-Krasovksii functional and a relaxed stabilization technique are considered. The stability conditions based on linear matrix inequality are obtained to achieve the fault tolerant synchronization of the chaotic systems. Finally, a numerical simulation is shown to verify the results.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.51504008,71371014,and 51774012)the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Higher Education Institutions of China (No.KJ2015A068)+3 种基金the Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation (No.1608085QE115)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (Nos.2015M571913 and 2018T110612)the Postdoctoral Fund of Anhui Province (No.2017B212)the Scientific Research Foundation for Introduction of Talent of Anhui University of Science & Technology (No.ZY530)
文摘During the past decade, coal dust and gas explosions have been the most two serious types of disasters in China, threatening the lives of miners and causing significant losses in terms of national property. In this paper, an evaluation model of coal dust and gas explosions was constructed based on a fuzzy fault tree by taking the Xingli Coal Mine as a research site to identify the risk factors of coal dust and gas explosions.Furthermore, the hazards associated with such explosions were evaluated for this particular coal mine.After completing an on-site investigation, the fuzzy probabilities of basic events were obtained through expert scoring, and these expert opinions were then aggregated as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the degrees of importance of all basic events. Finally, these degrees of importance were sorted. According to the resulting order, the basic events with higher probabilities were determined to identify key hazards in the daily safety management of this particular coal mine. Moreover, effective measures for preventing gas and coal dust explosions were derived. The fuzzy fault tree analysis method is of high significance in the analysis of accidental coal mine explosions and provides theoretical guidance for improving the efficiency of coal mine safety management in a scientific and feasible manner.
基金financially supported by the National Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Innovation Special Project-Engineering Demonstration Application of Subsea Production System,Topic 4:Research on Subsea X-Tree and Wellhead Offshore Testing Technology(Grant No.MC-201901-S01-04)the Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province(Major Innovation Project)(Grant Nos.2022CXGC020405,2023CXGC010415)。
文摘Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71761030)
文摘Considering that the fault phenomenon of the power head cannot feed under actual working conditions,fuzzy mathematics theory is introduced into fault tree analysis(FTA)according to the structural characteristics of hydraulic system of anchor drilling rigs in this paper.The triangle fuzzy number is used to describe the fault probability of the basic event,the fuzzy probability importance of the basic event is calculated,and the basic events are sorted by comparing the magnitude of the fuzzy probability importance.The results show that the gear wear of auxiliary oil pump,suction phenomena of gear pump,wear and leakage of No.1 and No.3 pumps are the key factors leading to power head failure.In order to improve the overall reliability of the hydraulic system,fault diagnosis and maintenance decisions provide a theoretical basis.
文摘Conventional fault tree and reliability analysis do not reflect the characteristics of basic events as non stationary and ergodic process. To overcome these drawbacks, theory of fuzzy sets is employed to run fault tree analysis(FTA) of roller oscillating tooth gear drive(ROTGD), the relative frequencies of basic events are considered as symmetrical normal fuzzy numbers, from the logical relationship between different events in the fault tree and fuzzy operators AND and OR, fuzzy probability of top event is solved. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate a real ROTGD system.
文摘Being one of the most expensive components of an electrical power plant, the failures of a power transformer can result in serious power system issues. So fault diagnosis for power transformer is highly important to ensure an uninterrupted power supply. Due to information transmission mistakes as well as arisen errors while processing data in surveying and monitoring state information of transformer, uncertain and incomplete information may be produced. Based on these points, this paper presents an intelligent fault diagnosis method of power transformer using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FTA) and beta distribution for failure possibility estimation. By using the technique we proposed herein, the continuous attribute values are transformed into the fuzzy numbers to give a realistic estimate of failure possibility of a basic event in FTA. Further, it explains a new approach based on Euclidean distance between fuzzy numbers, to rank the basic events in accordance with their Fuzzy Importance Index.
文摘In the past, the probabilities of basic events were described as triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy number that cannot characterize the common distribution of the primary events in engineering, and the fault tree analyzed by fuzzy set theory did not include repeated basic events. This paper presents a new method to analyze the fault tree by using normal fuzzy number to describe the fuzzy probability of each basic event which is more suitably used to analyze the reliability in safety systems, and then the formulae of computing the fuzzy probability of the top event of the fault tree which includes repeated events are derived. Finally, an example is given.
文摘Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy importance analysis of the basic event is proposed as well. A practical example is given. This method is a new way to solve the obscure problems of fault tree analysis and has great value in engineering practice.
基金supported by Shanghai University New Teacher Training Research Project.
文摘The traditional triangular fuzzy fault tree prediction model adopts the linear approximation method.Therefore,the accident prediction error is large.Based on the analysis of the error sources and the fuzzy set,the precise calculation method of the event at the top of the fault tree is given.By using the numerical calculation software,an accurate calculation method of nonlinear triangular fuzzy accident prediction was adopted to predict lithium battery air transport fire accidents,and the fuzzy importance of the cause event was calculated.
