Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Microplastics in sediment of the Three Gorges Reservoir:abundance and characteristics under different environmental conditions

Freshwater microplastic pollution is an urgent issue of global concern,and research on the distribution in reservoirs is lacking.We investigated the microplastic pollution levels in wet sediments collected from the Three Gorges Reservoir,the largest reservoir of China.Results show that microplastics were ubiquitous in the sediments of the Three Gorges Reservoir,and their abundance ranged from 59 to 276 pp/kg(plastic particles per kg,dry weight).Economic development and total population were important factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of microplastic abundance,and the contribution of large cities along the reservoir to microplastic pollution should be paid with more attention.Fibrous microplastics were the most abundant type of microplastic particles in reservoir sediments,whereas polystyrene,polypropylene,and polyamide were the main types of polymers.The apparent spatial heterogeneity in morphology and color of microplastics is attributed to different anthropogenic or landbased pollution sources.Moreover,the accumulation of microplastics near the inlet of tributaries reflects the role of potential contributors of tributaries.More importantly,multiple bisphenols(BPs)and heavy metals detected at the microplastic surfaces indicate that microplastics can act as carriers of these pollutants in the environment in the same way as sediments did,which may alter the environmental fate and toxicity of these pollutants.Therefore,we conclude that the Three Gorges Reservoir had been contaminated with microplastics,which posed a stress risk for organisms who ingest them along with their associated pollutants(BPs,heavy metals).

Environmental heterogeneity and productivity drive the assemblage of benthic diatom:a case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Dam construction has a critical effect on river ecosystems in the world,resulting in a rapid decline in biodiversity and ecosystem health.However,the effect of dam construction on the assemblage pattern of benthic diatoms remains unclear.The benthic diatoms assemblages in the tributary backwater area of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)were investigated under low water level(LWL)and high water level(HWL)conditions.Results show that Discostella stelligera,Nitzschia palea,and Craticula subminuscula were dominant species in LWL,while Achnanthidium minutissimum and Nitzschia dissipata were dominant in HWL.Furthermore,environmental variables,productivity parameters,diversity indices,and community similarity were found significantly different between LWL and HWL periods.The Mantel test indicated that both environmental and spatial factors had significant effects on diatom communities in backwater area,while productivity was also a key driving force in LWL.The variation partitioning analysis(VPA)further demonstrated that environment factors could explain the largest variance of diatom assemblages in HWL(9%)and LWL(11%),followed by spatial factors.The relative importance of productivity to diatom community was significantly enhanced in LWL,but only a slight effect was found in HWL.These results indicate that the diatom assemblages were shaped by both environmental filtering and spatial factors.The relative importance of spatial factors depended on the degree of productivity.Therefore,the homogenization of diatom communities due to environmental disturbance,e.g.eutrophication and dam building,is the underlying mechanism in assembling the benthic diatoms.

Climate Characteristics in Three Gorges Reservoir Area after Water Storage and Its Impact on the Production Potential

Based on the meteorological data from 33 stations of Three Gorges Reservoir from 1960 to 2008,climate yield of rice,corn and winter wheat and the changes of climatic potential productivity after water storage in Three Gorges Reservoir were calculated by the dynamic statistic model of crop growth.The results showed that the temperature in Three Gorges Reservoir was fluctuant decreased before late 1980s,and warmed rapidly after the late 1980s.The precipitation had little change before the late 1990s and had a slight decrease after the late 1990s.Sunshine hours were more in 1960s and 1970s,and then it changed little after 1980s.After water storage,the temperature increased in Three Gorges Reservoir as a whole.The precipitation decreased in the south of Three Gorges Reservoir,while it increased in the northwest of Three Gorges Reservoir.The sunshine hours were reduced except that in the vicinity of Dianjiang.After water storage,climatic potential productivity of rice decreased in the northwest and the northeast,while it increased in the south of Three Gorges Reservoir.The climatic potential productivity of corn decreased in the northeast and the southwest,but increased in the rest of Three Gorges Reservoir.The climatic potential productivity of winter wheat increased almost in total.

Preliminary Study on Early-warning System of Ecological Security in Water-Level-Fluctuating Zone (WLFZ) of Three Gorges Reservoir

The area,the scope as well as some ecological environment questions in Three Gorges Reservoir was briefly introduced. Then its early warning-system frame was preliminarily constructed,which includes ecological security dynamic monitoring,ecological security appraisal,ecological security forecast and ecological security decision-making management. The synthetic evaluation indicator system of the ecological security quality were initially established,which includes ecological environment pollution,land use and land cover change,geological hazard and epidemic outbreaks. At the same time,29 evaluating indicators were selected,divides into the basic factors,response factors and inducing factors,which need to be Real-time monitored.

Plankton community composition in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region revealed by PCR-DGGE and its relationships with environmental factors

To explore the relationships between community composition and the environment in a reservoir ecosystem, plankton communities from the Three Gorges Reservoir Region were studied by PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis fingerprinting. Bacterial and eukaryotic operational taxonomic units （OTUs）, generated by DGGE analysis of the PCR-amplified 16S and 18S rRNA genes, were used as surrogates for the dominant ＂biodiversity units＂. OTU composition among the sites was heterogeneous; 46.7% of the total bacterial OTUs （45） and 64.1% of the eukaryotic OTUs （39） were identified in less than half of the sampling sites. Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages （UPGMA） clustering of the OTUs suggested that the plankton communities in the Xiangxi Rive sites were not always significantly different from those from the Yangtze River sites, despite clear differences in their environmental characterizations. Canonical correspondence analysis （CCA） was applied to further investigate the relationships between OTU composition and the environmental factors. The first two CCA ordination axes suggested that the bacterial community composition was primarily correlated with the variables of NO3^--N, dissolved oxygen （DO）, and SiO3^2--Si, whereas, the eukaryotic community was mainly correlated with the concentrations of DO, PO4^3--P, and SiO3^2--Si.

Reductions in non-point source pollution through different management practices for an agricultural watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Non-point source water pollution generated by agricultural production is considered a major environmental issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area （TGRA） of China. The Annualised Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution （AnnAGNPS） model was selected to assess the impact of the application of various management treats, including seven crops, five fertilizer levels and three-group management practice scenarios, on water quality from Heigou River Watershed in TGRA. The scenario subsets include conservation tillage practice （CTP）, conservation reserve program （CRP） and conversion of cropland into forestland program （CCFP）. Results indicated that tea can not be replaced by other crops because comparatively tea resulted in a higher sediment yield. CTP with no-tillage was more effective to reduce sediment yield, but could increased nutrient loss. CRP reduced sediment yield significantly, but slightly benefited on nutrient loss. CCFP reduced not only sediment yield but also the nutrient loss significantly. The conversion of cropland with a slope greater than 10° into forestland was found to be the best scenario as the sediment yield export is less than 5 tons/ha and nutrient loss is within the permissible limit.

Effect of nitrogen and phosphorus on the water quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during and after its construction

A survey concerning the concentration of the nutrients in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was carried out. This paper presents the parameters(NO 3 - N, NO 2 - N, Kjeldahl N, non ionic ammonia, P PO 4 and TP) determined at 16 sampling sites from 1997 to 1999 The dominant soluble nitrogen form was NO 3 - N followed by Kjeldahl N, NO 2 - N and non ionic ammonia. Mean values of NO 3 - N, NO 2 - N, Kjeldahl N and non ionic ammonia ranged from 0 50 to 2 37 mg/L, 0 022 to 0 084 mg/L, 0 33 to 0 99 mg/L and 0 007 to 0 092 mg/L respectively. Mean values of P PO 4 at most sampling sites were higher than 0 1 mg/L for subject to eutrophication. The major factors influencing the concentrations of N and P might be agricultural runoff, municipal and industrial effluents. In addition, 6 kinds of soil were sampled at the area where would inundated after the dam completed. Two approaches were adopted to simulate the N and P release from the inundated soils. The results showed that the soils would release nitrogen and phosphorus to the overlying water when the soils were inundated. The characteristics of soil affected the equilibrium concentrations of N and P between the soil and the overlying water.

Spatial distribution,sources and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in Shenjia River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Surface soil/sediment samples were collected from the Water-Level Fluctuation Zone(WLFZ), cultivated land and forest land at 50 different grid points from Shenjia watershed, the Three Gorges Reservoir area in August 2013. The spatial distribution, sources and ecological risk assessment for Arsenic(As), Cadmium(Cd),Chromium(Cr), Copper(Cu), Nickel(Ni), Lead(Pb)and Zinc(Zn) were analyzed in this study. The results showed all tested metals had similar distribution patterns except Ni and Cr, with areas of high concentrations distributed in the southwest(WLFZ and watershed outlet) of the study area. Ni and Cr,which were highly positively correlated and present in high concentrations, were primarily distributed in the south and middle zones of the study area. Lower concentration areas of all metals were uniformly distributed west of the high-elevation zones and forest land. Factor analysis(FA) and factor analysismultiple linear regression(FA-MLR) showed that the major sources of Cd were fertilizer and traffic sources,which together accounted for 87% of Cd. As, Zn and Cu levels were primarily supplied by industrial and domestic sources, accounting for 76% of As, 75% of Cu and 67% of Zn. Surface soils/sediments of the study watershed contaminated by Cd represent a high ecological risk, whereas other metals represent low ecological risks. The potential ecological risk index(PERI) analysis indicated that it had a low(widerange) ecological risk and a moderate(small-range)ecological risk primarily distributed in the outlet of the study watershed. Fertilizers and traffic are the primary sources of Cd pollution, which should be more closely controlled for the purposes of water quality and ecological conservation.

Seasonal succession of phytoplankton in response to the variation of environmental factors in the Gaolan River, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

To understand the responses of a freshwater ecosystem to the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）, phytoplankton was monitored in the tributaries of the TGR area. From August 2010 to July 2011, algal species composition, abundance, chlorophyll a and other environmental parameters were investigated in the Gaolan River, which is a tributary of Xiangxi River. Thirty-one algal genera from seven phyla were identified. Results show that the lowest concentrations of total phosphorus （TP） and total nitrogen （TN） were 0.06 mg/L and 1.08 rag/L, respectively. The values of TP and TN exceeded the threshold concentration of the eutrophic state suggested for freshwater bodies. In the Gaolan River, the succession of phytoplankton showed clear seasonal characteristics. Different dominant species were observed among seasons under the control of environment factors. In spring and summer, the dominant species were Nitzschia sp. and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae （L.） Ralfs, the limiting nutrient was NO3^--N, and the key environmental factor for phytoplankton population succession was water temperature （WT）. In autumn and winter, the dominant species were A.flos-aquae and Chlorella sp., the limiting nutrient was pO3--P, and the key environmental factors were transparency and WT. This study illustrates the influence of physical and chemical factors on phytoplankton seasonal succession in a tributary of TGR since the downstream regions of Xiangxi River and Gaolan River became reservoirs after impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam. We suggest that this activity has significantly affected water quality in the dam area.

Changes in cultivated land patterns and driving forces in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, from 1992 to 2015

Changes of cultivated land patterns caused by major water conservation projects are rarely reported. We selected the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China to study the change in area and landscape pattern of the cultivated land in the head,central, and tail areas of the reservoir that took place between 1992 and 2015;we then studied the spatial distribution of the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir;finally, we studied the driving forces behind the changes in the cultivated land. The results derived are as follows.(1) During the construction of the Three Gorges Project(TGP, 1992–2015), the area of cultivated land around the reservoir decreased by30.23 million ha. This reduction occurred in phases:the most severe change in cultivated land occurred during the later stage of the project(2002–2010);only 0.62 million ha of cultivated land did not change between 1992 and 2015.(2) Spatial pattern analysis showed that the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir changed from a northern distribution to a southern distribution;thus, the area of cultivated land in the north decreased over the time period. The area of cultivated land in the head and tail areas decreased by varying degrees, while it increased in the central area over the 23 years, indicating that the change in cultivated land showed regional differences.(3) The TGP, the policy of reverting farmland to forest,and urbanization were the main driving factors for the change of cultivated land, but there were differences in their impacts at different stages.(4) According to the patch dynamics of the land cover change, the degree of change gradually intensified during the early and later stages of the project and then stabilized during the operational period. Our research provides scientific support for the protection of cultivated land resources and food security in the reservoir area and for the coordination of social and economic development, which is of great significance to sustainable development in the reservoir area.

Centrifugal model test on a riverine landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir induced by rainfall and water level fluctuation

Frequent soil landslide events are recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China,making it necessary to investigate the failure mode of such riverside landslides.Geotechnical centrifugal test is considered to be the most realistic laboratory model,which can reconstruct the required geo-stress.In this study,the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorgers Reservoir area is selected for a scaled centrifugal model experiment,and a water pump system is employed to retain the rainfall condition.Using the techniques of digital photography and pore water pressure transducers,water level fluctuation is controlled,and multi-physical data are thus obtained,including the pore water pressure,earth pressure,surface displacement and deep displacement.The analysis results indicate that:Three stages were set in the test(waterflooding stage,rainfall stage and drainage stage).Seven transverse cracks with wide of 1–5 mm appeared during the model test,of which 3 cracks at the toe landslide were caused by reservoir water fluctuation,and the cracks at the middle and rear part were caused by rainfall.During rainfall process,the maximum displacement of landslide model reaches 3 cm.And the maximum deformation of the model exceeds 12 cm at the drainage stage.The failure process of the slope model can be divided into four stages:microcracks appearance and propagation stage,thrust-type failure stage,retrogressive failure stage,and holistic failure stage.When the thrust-type zone caused by rainfall was connected or even overlapped with the retrogressive failure zone caused by the drainage,the landslide would start,which displayed a typical composite failure pattern.The failure mode and deformation mechanism under the coupling actions of water level fluctuation and rainfall are revealed in the model test,which could appropriately guide for the analysis and evaluation of riverside landslides.

Prediction of chlorophyll a concentration using HJ-1 satellite imagery for Xiangxi Bay in Three Gorges Reservoir

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003, algal blooms have frequently been observed in it. The chlorophyll a concentration is an important parameter for evaluating algal blooms. In this study, the chlorophyll a concentration in Xiangxi Bay, in the Three Gorges Reservoir, was predicted using HJ-1 satellite imagery. Several models were established based on a correlation analysis between in situ measurements of the chlorophyll a concentration and the values obtained from satellite images of the study area from January 2010 to December 2011. Chlorophyll a concentrations in Xiangxi Bay were predicted based on the established models. The results show that the maximum correlation is between the reflectance of the band combination of B4/（B2＋B3） and in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentration. The root mean square errors of the predicted values using the linear and quadratic models are 18.49 mg/m3 and 18.52 mg/m3, respectively, and the average relative errors are 37.79% and 36.79%, respectively. The results provide a reference for water bloom prediction in typical tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir and contribute to large-scale remote sensing monitoring and water quality management.

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differences of Land Use Changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 1975-2005

Regional land use changes are an important part of global changes.The research on land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China attracts a lot of attention owing to the Three Gorges Dam building.The Three Gorges Reservoir Area becomes one of the important research areas.This study analyzed the transforming processes and traits of each land use type and the regional differences of land use changes during the past 30 years,summarized the distribution of different land use types in different buffer zones and regresses the equation areas and different buffer distances based on buffer analyses and regression analyses,and then analyzed the transforming rules in different buffer distances,got the optimal influence distances.The research results indicate that,(1) cultivated land lies at the northwest of the reservoir and was decreasing,however,the construction land was increasing,especially the urban construction land,a large number of land was flooded because of the reservoir water level rise;(2) urban area was sprawling quickly in developed and neighboring areas,and a great deal of cultivated land and a considerable amount of grassland were occupied;in the earlier time,rural settlements occupied lots of cultivated land and a sum of forestry land in the later time;(3) the optimum influenced distances for cultivated land and forestry land were 10-35 km,and for urban and rural settlements were in 5-20 km.Overall,this research can reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes during the 30 years,and it is helpful for urban planning and land use planning in the reservoir area.

Assessment of the Ecological Security in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area by Using the Ecological Footprint Method

The ecological footprint concept and its calculation models are useful for the measurement of the sustainable level of social and economic development.The ecological security situation of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA) was evaluated using this concept in this study.The construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir has led to the change in the ecology and immigration status of TGRA.The ecological footprint method is an important means to study the regional ecological security.Our results suggested that,by excluding the areas for biodiversity conservation(12% of the total land),the ecological footprint per capita was 0.57895 ha,which exceeded the ecological carrying capacity in TGRA.The total ecological deficit was found to be 11,522,193.34 ha,accounting for 95.02% of the ecological carrying capacity.These findings suggested that the ecological security of TGRA was not good.In order to compensate for the ecological deficit,it was essential to introduce natural resources from other regions.

Spatiotemporal features of soil and water loss in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing

Soil and water loss has been the most serious eco-environmental problem in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing.In this paper the authors studied the spatiotemporal features of soil and water loss from 1999 to 2004 based on RS and GIS techniques.The results showed that:(1) The soil and water loss area decreased from 1999 to 2004.(2) Soil and water loss mainly exists in purple soil,yellow soil,limestone soil,paddy soil and yellow brown soil distributed areas.(3) The dry slope land and sparse woodland that are intensively influenced by human activities experienced most serious soil and water loss.(4) Soil and water loss in the study area indicated an obvious vertical differentiation characteristic.(5) There is a significant correlation between soil and water loss and slope.(6) There is no obvious correlation between soil and water loss and aspect.(7) Soil and water loss mainly exists in the values of R between 300 and 340 distribution area.The very-high soil and water loss has obvious correlation with R.

Using ^(137)Cs Tracing Methods to Estimate Soil Redistribution Rates and to Construct a Sediment Budget for a Small Agricultural Catchment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region,China

Soil erosion and associated off-site sedimentation are threatening the sustainable use of the Three Gorges Dam. To initiate management intervention to reduce sediment yields, there is an increasing need for reliable information on soil erosion in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region （TGRR）. The purpose of this study is to use 137Cs tracing methods to construct a sediment budget for a small agricultural catchment in the TGRR. Cores were taken from a pond and from paddy fields, for laTCs measurements. The results show that the average sedimentation rate in the pond since 1963 is 1.50 g cm-2 yr-1 and the corresponding amount of sediment deposited is 1,553 t. The surface erosion rate for the sloping cultivated lands and the sedimentation rate in the paddy fields were estimated to be 3,770 t km-2 yr-1 and 2,600 t km-2 yr^1 respectively. Based on the estimated erosion and deposition rates, and the area of each unit, the post 197o sediment budget for the catchment has been constructed. A sediment delivery ratio of 0.5 has been estimated for the past 42 years. The data indicate that the sloping cultivated lands are the primary sediment source areas, and that the paddy fields are deposition zones. The typical land use pattern （with the upper parts characterized by sloping cultivated land and the lower parts by paddy fields） plays an important role in reducing sediment yield from agricultural catchments in the TGRR. A 137Cs profile for the sediment deposited in a pond is shownto provide an effective means of estimating the land surface erosion rate in the upstream catchment.

Landslides and Slope Aspect in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on GIS and Information Value Model

Slope aspect is one of the indispensable internal factors besides lithology, relative elevation and slope degree. In this paper authors use information value model with Geo graphical Information System （GIS） technology to study how slope aspect contributes to landslide growth from Yunyang to Wushan segment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, and the relationship between aspect and landslide growth is quantified. Through the research on 205 landslides examples, it is found that the slope contributes most whose aspect is towards south,southeast and southwest aspect contribute moderately, and other five aspects contribute little. The research result inosculates preferably with the fact. The result of this paper can provide potent gist to the construction of Three Gorges Reservoir area in future.

Spatial patterns of farmland abandonment and its impact factors in the central Three Gorges Reservoir Area

The severe farmland abandonment phenomena in China have tremendously decreased the farmland usage efficiency and caused a series of profound ecological and social outcomes. The complexity of farmland abandonment necessitates a systematic research on its patterns and impact factors to underpin the dynamics of problem as well as potential solutions. This paper took Wanzhou district in the central part of Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example to study the spatial distribution patterns of abandoned farmland at three scales, i.e., town, village, and plot, and analyzed the influence from labor transfer and farmland circulation. We conducted a survey on the distribution patterns of abandoned farmland via questionnaires at town and village scales, together with the modeling and interpretation of high-resolution aerial images taken by unmanned aerial vehicles at plot scale. Our research discloses a strong relationship between the distribution of abandoned farmland and the distance from population center at different scales. At eithertown or village scale, the abandonment proportion was recognized the highest in mid-distance areas and lowest in close-distance areas, and the per capita area of abandoned farmland increased with the distance to downtown or township. At plot scale, abandonment proportion presented exponential growth with the distance to village center, whereas the abandoned farmland was mainly distributed in the areas with distance above 500 m from the village center. Moreover, we noticed that labor transfer and farmland circulation are two important factors that influence farmland abandonment. Labor's outbound transfer distance has a positive linkage with the possibility of farmland abandonment. Finally, it is recommended that development and adoption of corresponding policies on local urbanization and farmland circulation will facilitate to alleviate farmland abandonment.

Surface Microtextures of Slipping Zone Soil of Some Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir District and Their Significance

The mineral assemblage and content and surface microtextures of slipping zone soil of several landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir District have been analyzed using the scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray diffractometer (XRD). All the mineral assemblages are similar in these landslides. The main minerals are montmorillonite, illite, kaolinite, chlorite, quartz and feldspar. There are two kinds of surface microtexture in the slipping zone soil, i.e., linear scratches and arcuate scratches. Based on analyses of the changes of the microtextures, one can obtain information about the number, directions and stages of landslide movements. The authors have also studied the mechanism of landslide formation, evaluated the stability of landslides and revival possibility of ancient landslides and forecasted the activity of similar landslides in different districts. The surface microtexture features of stable landslides and mobile landslides are summarized and it is concluded that the existence of filamentous bacteria may result in or increase movements of landslides.