An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

Ecological Suitability Evaluation on Agricultural Land in Western Jilin Province Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

[Objective] This study was to evaluate the ecological suitability of agricultural land in western Jilin Province, with the aim to provide basis for the effective application of agricultural resources and the structural adjustment of land use. [Method] The evaluation index system was constructed based on fuzzy mathematic method according to the principles of systematic, dominant, effectiveness and feasibility; based on law of tolerance, reasonable evaluation criteria were determined according to the ecological amplitude of crops; based on GIS processing, the initial data completed the mathematical operation by using the VBA program in Excel. [Result] The area of agricultural land grade I was 5 512 km2, grade II of 25 985 km2, grade Ill of 7 907 km2, and area of land not suitable for agriculture was 6 312 km2. According to the evaluation results, the key areas for land use adjustment were Zhenlai County, Da＇an County, Tongyu County and western Changling County. The directions of land use adjustment included improving irrigation and drainage conditions, governing land salinization and conversion of cropland to forest and grassland. [Conclusion] This study provided basis for the effective application of agricultural resources and ecological environment construction in western Jilin Province.

Effect of Agricultural Land Reform on Cotton Cultivation in Manasi,XinJiang Based on Reformed Farmers

[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of agricultural land reform on cotton cultivation in Manasi, XinJiang based on reformed farmers. [Method] Rural land contract management rights transfer of rural household in Manasi County of Xinjiang Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture were surveyed in August, 2011. Based on the survey data, the paper analyzed the effect of agricultural land reform on cotton culti- vation from 2 aspects of cotton cultivation scale and benefit, and also studied the willingness of farmers for agricultural land reform. [Result] The main obstacle for farmer＇s unwillingness of continuous land reform for cotton cultivation was that the cotton cultivation risk was big, and the benefit could not be guaranteed. The agricul- tural land area per household increased after agricultural land reform, which increased the modernization progress of cotton cultivation. It also increased the benefit of cotton cultivation, and further affected the benefit of cotton cultivation. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for improving scale cotton cultivation efficacy in Xinjiang.

Analysis of the Price of Development Right of Agricultural Land in China

According to the viewpoints of predecessors, we define the signification of development right of agricultural land and connotation of the price of development right of agricultural land as follows: the development right of agricultural land is to change the former use nature of agricultural land, so as to become the right of construction use land; the price of development right of agricultural land refers to the price that is difference between the price of construction use land, and summation of the price of former agricultural land, the expense of developing agricultural land, the expense of management, and profit, after the agricultural land is transformed into non-agricultural construction use land. By using the principle of economics of land, this paper expounds the generation mechanism of the price of development right of agricultural land, namely the diversity of agricultural land use and the change of demand and supply of development right of agricultural land. The influencing factors of the development right of agricultural land are analyzed, and there are mainly the price of agricultural land, the price of construction use land, the contradiction of demand and supply of urban land, land use, and agricultural land.

How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good.

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultural land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.

Impact of Labor Transfer on Agricultural Land Use Conversion at Rural Household Level Based on Logit Model

Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.

Effect of Agricultural Land Use Changes on Soil Nutrient Use Efficiency in an Agricultural Area,Beijing,China

Agricultural land use and management practices may affect soil properties,which play a critical role in sustaining crop production.Since the late 1970s,several new agricultural land use types had been introduced in the rural areas of China.The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of these land use changes on the soil properties,nu-trient absorption rate,and nutrient use economic efficiency ratio in an agricultural area of Beijing.Specifically,the cropland,the orchard and the vegetable field were examined.Results of this study suggest that land use and farming management practices significantly affect the content of soil organic carbon (SOC),total nitrogen (TN),total phos-phorus (TP),and available phosphorus in the surface layer of 0-25 cm (p<0.05) in the Yanqing Basin,northwestern Beijing.Soil nutrients in each agricultural land use type decrease rapidly with the increasing soil depth.Orchard and vegetable field tend to have higher soil nutrients than the cropland does.However,the soil nutrient-absorption rate (NAR) of the orchard and vegetable field is lower than that of the cropland,even though orchard and vegetable field may provide much higher economic benefit.While increasing SOC,TN,and TP in the orchard and vegetable field by intensive farming may be a valuable option to improve soil quality,potential increase in the risk of nutrient loss,or agricultural non-point source pollution can be a tradeoff if the intensive practices are not managed appropriately.

Effectiveness of sloping agricultural land technology on soil fertility status of mid-hills in Nepal

Hedgerows with intercropping systems were established at the ICIMOD test and demonstration site at Godawari to assess the effective- ness of Sloping Agricultural Land Technology （SALT） in reducing run- off water volume, controlling soil loss, increasing crop production, and improving soil fertility in the mid-hills of Nepal. Runoff water volume （1996-2002）, soil loss （1996-2002） and maize yield （1995-2001）, and soil fertility-related parameters were assessed on SALT models with three factors： the type of nitrogen-fixing plant, the farmers＇ practice, and fertilizer use. Results showed a significant effect of Alnus nepalensis and/or Indigofera dosua on runoff water volume, soil loss, crop produc- tion, soil water retention, and soil nutrients （NPK）. Farmers＇ practice and fertilization did not play a significant role in reducing runoff water and soil loss. However, farmers＇ practice significantly increased crop produc- tion. Therefore, integrating soil conservation approaches on SALT sys- tems enhances stable economic output to hills and mountain farmers.

Impacts of the Rising Opportunity Cost of Farm Labor on Agricultural Land Use Structure: Theory and Empirical Evidences

Nowadays the rising of opportunity cost of farm labor comes to the forefront of attention in China. In order to understand its impact on agricultural land-use structure, a theoretical framework of household economics is formulated drawn on Low's model. Under the theoretical framework, the impact of the rising opportunity cost of on-farm on cropping structure is deduced in theory. And then, using statistic and survey data, taking mountain area of southern Ningxia as an example, the theoretical assumes are verified. The results show that the rise of opportunity cost of farm labor leads to less diversified cropping structure.

Function of Agricultural Land Use and Its Evolvement in Peri-urban Area: A Case Study of Beijing

Rapid urbanization in Beijing stimulates the urban land expansion and diminishes available agricultural land. Monofunctional agricultural land use can not meet the demand of the devel- opment of the multifunctional agriculture and urbanization any more, so multifunctional agricultural land use is going to be promoted in the city. This article proposes the evolvement of the land use change from 1992 to 2004 and discusses some evolvement views.

Research of Comprehensive Evaluation of Agricultural Land Suitability in Typical Area of Huanghuaihai Plain based on GIS

The paper aims to study agricultural land suitability in typical agricultural area in Huanghuaihai plain by the comprehensive evaluation of natural factors and environmental conditions of agricultural land with Liaocheng area in Shangdong Province in the center of Huanghuaihai plain as a case.The results suggested that the land quality in Liaocheng was above the average and accorded with the local practical situation.The authors validated the scientificity of agricultural land suitability study by using GIS technology and proposed some suggestions on analysis results.

Agricultural land loss in China's urbanization process

In China, urbanization of agricultural land around city agglomerations increases rapidly. Rapid urbanization of agricultoral land affects food supply, land value and ecological balance in the society. In China, the urban built-up area had increased by 40% from 1996 to 2003. This increase came predominantly from farmland surrounding the cities. How the ongoing urbanization of China affects its agricultural land is the focus of this paper. In current studies, we have found that population density; urbanization degree and personal income are key factors that influence the urbanization process. Based on this, relation model has been established and to predict the general trends of the urban area expansion in China in 2020.In 2020, the constructed urban area of China would be increased by 1.3 times compared wtth 2003. In 2020, this study anticipates the conversion of about 32,562 sq. kin. agricultural land of China for urban use.

Sustainable Utilization of Agricultural Land in Chengdu Metropolitan Area Based on Emergy Analysis

[Objectives]This study aimed to analyze the sustainable use of agricultural land in the Chengdu metropolitan area from 2006 to 2016.[Methods]Using Odum's emergy theory,an index system was constructed to evaluate the sustainable use of agricultural land,including total emergy input-output ratio,industrial emergy input-output ratio,environmental load index and sustainable use index of agricultural land based on emergy,to reflect the sustainable use of agricultural land in the Chengdu metropolitan area.The data base was a unified standard that was converted from various types of energy stored and flowing in the agricultural land system of the Chengdu metropolitan area,that is,emergy.[Results]From 2006 to 2016,the total emergy input-output ratio of agricultural land in the metropolitan area fluctuated and decreased,lower than the national average.The industrial emergy input-output ratio was generally in a fluctuating downward trend.The environmental load index of agricultural land in the metropolitan area was lower than the national average.However,it has been on the rise since 2012.During the corresponding period,the sustainable use index of the region also showed a downward trend.[Conclusions]The utilization rate of emergy in this area was low.The dependence of industrial emergy input-output ratio on industrial subsidiary energy and the degree of agricultural mechanization are constantly improving.The environmental resources in this area still have room for accommodation and have not been fully utilized.The sustainable use of agricultural land has been declining.

Assessment of China's economic loss resulting from the degradation of agricultural land in the end of 20th century

Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326 81 billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4 1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1 5 in the only 7 years.

Agricultural Land Use Optimal Allocation System in Developing Area:Application to Yili Watershed, Xinjiang Region

In developing countries, land productivity involves little market, where the agricultural land use is mainly determined by the food demands as well as the land suitability. The land use pattern will not ensure everywhere enough land for certain cropping if spatial allocation just according to land use suitability. To solve this problem, a subzone and a pre-allocation for each land use are added in spatial allocation module, and land use suitability and area optimi- zation module are incorporated to constitute a whole agricultural land use optimal allocation （ALUOA） system. The system is developed on the platform .Net 2005 using ArcGIS Engine （version 9.2） and C# language, and is tested and validated in Yili watershed of Xinjiang Region on the newly reclaimed area. In the case study, with the help of soil data obtained from 69 points sampled in the fieldwork in 2008, main river data supplied by the Department of Water Resources of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China, and temperature data provided by Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, land use suitability on eight common crops are evaluated one by one using linear weighted summation method in the land use suitability model. The linear pro- gramming （LP） model in area optimization model succeeds to give out land area target of each crop under three scenarios. At last, the land use targets are allotted in space both with a six subzone file and without a subzone file. The resuits show that the land use maps with a subzone not only ensure every part has enough land for every crop, but also gives a more fragmental land use pattern, with about 87.99% and 135.92% more patches than the one without, while at the expense of loss between 15.30% and 19.53% in the overall suitability at the same time.

Conversion Margins for the Major Uses of Agricultural Land and Their Variations in Shandong Province, China

It is of practical significance for the decision-making on country food security and farmland protection to analyze the conversion margins for the major uses of agricultural land and their variations. Based on the panel data of wheat, corn, vegetable, fruit, and forests productions from 520 investigated farmer households of 13 investigated villages in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2009, and using Cobb-Douglas production function, the revenue conversion margins can be obtained separately, between different grain-crops （wheat, corn） and different non-grain crops （vegetable, fruit, forests）, and the conversion relationship between growing grain（ wheat, corn） and going out for non-farm work. The results show that from 2003 to 2009, growing wheat and corn are more economically and reasonably for farmers, compared with growing vegetable, but growing wheat and corn are becoming less economically and less reasonably day by day, compared with planting forests. Moreover, the conversion margin between wheat and fruit shows obvious scissors difference. Just from 2007, farm- ers＇ growing fruit became economically and reasonably, but until 2009, compared with going out to work after abandoning farm- land, growing wheat had no economic rationality. From 2003 to 2009, farmers＇ growing corn is more profitable than growing fruit and going out for non-farm work after abandoning farmland. The subsidies for wheat and corn have increased farmers＇ comparative income from food production remarkably, but the subsidies cannot change the general tendency that farmers transform food （wheat, corn） production into non-food （especially forests） production. The revenue difference between growing wheat, corn and vegetable and growing fruit and forests is being pulled ceaselessly bigger, and the tendency that farmers transform wheat, corn and vegetable growing lands into fruit and forests growing lands has become increasingly apparent.

Evaluation on the Influencing Factors of Agricultural Land Productivity in Huang-Huai Plain,China

Taking Huang-Huai Plain as an example,evaluation index system is established from four aspects,including the resources condition,the social and economic condition,the agricultural science and technology condition,and the disaster resistant and sustainable production condition.Correlation coefficient method and expert consultation method are used to determine the weight of evaluation index.After the standardization of extreme value,weighted sum method and multiple regression method are adopted to evaluate the influencing factors of agricultural land productivity in Huang-Huai Plain,China.Evaluation result shows that agricultural science and technology condition has a lower contribution rate to the productivity of Huang-Huai Plain than that to Henan Province.Resources condition has a higher contribution rate to the productivity of Huang-Huai Plain than that to Henan Province.Both the social and economic condition and the disaster control and sustainable production condition show relatively small contribution rate to the productivity of Huang-Huai Plain.It can be concluded that the main factors affecting the productivity of Huang-Huai Plain are the backward agricultural science and technology level,the poor farmland quality and the farmland infrastructure.Based on this,relevant suggestions are put forward to improve the farmland productivity of Huang-Huai Plain.

Ecological Risks of Agricultural Land Capitalization and Their Prevention

The capitalization of agricultural land as an institutional innovation in land use is of great significance to revitalize China's land resources, change land use and improve land use efficiency. With the gradual implementation of the capitalization of agricultural land, however, environmental problems brought by capitalization have restricted the sustainable and efficient utilization of agricultural land. This study, from the perspective of ecology, discusses ecological risks of agricultural land capitalization, analyzes the ecological risks of agricultural land capitalization in terms of the amount of land and land quality as well as the formation mechanism of the ecological risks of agricultural land capitalization. It is found that the logic of the capital itself, the profitability of the subject and the fragility of the ecological environment are the internal and external factors of the ecological risks of agricultural land. Thereupon authors put forward policy suggestions to prevent the ecological risks of agricultural land capitalization in terms of large-scale agricultural operations in diverse forms, the development of green agriculture, the protection of agricultural land quality and green finance, with a view to resolving the ecological risks of agricultural land capitalization and realizing the benign operation of agricultural land capitalization.