To ensure that limited resources are allocated more effectively to reduce marine risks, formal safety assessment (FSA), a proactive method, is introduced in planning a vessel traffic system (VTS). Based on the data of...To ensure that limited resources are allocated more effectively to reduce marine risks, formal safety assessment (FSA), a proactive method, is introduced in planning a vessel traffic system (VTS). Based on the data of Wuhan port, some new solutions based on risk-indices are put forward. The weighted number of traffic accidents is predicted after the future weighted vessel traffic volume is estimated by analyzing the trend of trade development. To analyze risk acceptability, the as-low-as-reasonably-practicable (ALARP) matrix is transformed into a new model containing two parameters: the future weighted vessel traffic volume and the future weighted number of traffic accidents. The new risk control options (RCOs)can be identified by a revised Domino model with several feedback loops from all system levels to close a limited window of accident opportunity. The results indicate that the four most beneficial RCOs are a wider sub-area 1 channel, a VTS bridges area, a dredging sub-area 2 main route, and a VTS QSX anchorage to the 3rd bridge. The FSA is a method that is effective in evaluating the rationality, necessity and cost-effectiveness of VTS projects.展开更多
为校正突发性水污染事件风险评价中因多因素和不确定性带来的风险评价误差,本研究提出基于ALARP(As Low As Reasonably Practicable)原则的突发性水污染事件风险评价方法,即以基于ALARP原则的"F-D"图为基础,通过对计算危险源...为校正突发性水污染事件风险评价中因多因素和不确定性带来的风险评价误差,本研究提出基于ALARP(As Low As Reasonably Practicable)原则的突发性水污染事件风险评价方法,即以基于ALARP原则的"F-D"图为基础,通过对计算危险源分级指标和分析事故发生概率,确定其在图中所处的区域,从而确定风险性质。并且以此为指导提出相应的风险管理建议。本研究将孟津化肥厂作为案例,成功地应用该方法对其进行了突发性水污染事件的风险评价。本研究成果可为突发性水污染事件的风险评价及风险管理提供较为实用的方法和依据。展开更多
大型工程施工涉及大量的设备和多个环节,其过程存在很多复杂、潜在的风险.将模糊理论与失效模式及影响分析(Failure Modes and Effect Analysis,FMEA)结合,以天津港某岸桥加高工程为例,建立模糊语言集和与其对应的模糊数,将不同的专家...大型工程施工涉及大量的设备和多个环节,其过程存在很多复杂、潜在的风险.将模糊理论与失效模式及影响分析(Failure Modes and Effect Analysis,FMEA)结合,以天津港某岸桥加高工程为例,建立模糊语言集和与其对应的模糊数,将不同的专家知识和经验进行有效的应用,尽力消除了不同专家评价时的主观因素对于结果的影响偏差,以提高FMEA的准确性.利用最低合理可行准则,从众多潜在失效模式中,分级确定危险程度,以便在施工过程中监控各危险源.展开更多
基金Shanghai Pujiang Program,the Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (No.07ZZ103)
文摘To ensure that limited resources are allocated more effectively to reduce marine risks, formal safety assessment (FSA), a proactive method, is introduced in planning a vessel traffic system (VTS). Based on the data of Wuhan port, some new solutions based on risk-indices are put forward. The weighted number of traffic accidents is predicted after the future weighted vessel traffic volume is estimated by analyzing the trend of trade development. To analyze risk acceptability, the as-low-as-reasonably-practicable (ALARP) matrix is transformed into a new model containing two parameters: the future weighted vessel traffic volume and the future weighted number of traffic accidents. The new risk control options (RCOs)can be identified by a revised Domino model with several feedback loops from all system levels to close a limited window of accident opportunity. The results indicate that the four most beneficial RCOs are a wider sub-area 1 channel, a VTS bridges area, a dredging sub-area 2 main route, and a VTS QSX anchorage to the 3rd bridge. The FSA is a method that is effective in evaluating the rationality, necessity and cost-effectiveness of VTS projects.
文摘为校正突发性水污染事件风险评价中因多因素和不确定性带来的风险评价误差,本研究提出基于ALARP(As Low As Reasonably Practicable)原则的突发性水污染事件风险评价方法,即以基于ALARP原则的"F-D"图为基础,通过对计算危险源分级指标和分析事故发生概率,确定其在图中所处的区域,从而确定风险性质。并且以此为指导提出相应的风险管理建议。本研究将孟津化肥厂作为案例,成功地应用该方法对其进行了突发性水污染事件的风险评价。本研究成果可为突发性水污染事件的风险评价及风险管理提供较为实用的方法和依据。
文摘大型工程施工涉及大量的设备和多个环节,其过程存在很多复杂、潜在的风险.将模糊理论与失效模式及影响分析(Failure Modes and Effect Analysis,FMEA)结合,以天津港某岸桥加高工程为例,建立模糊语言集和与其对应的模糊数,将不同的专家知识和经验进行有效的应用,尽力消除了不同专家评价时的主观因素对于结果的影响偏差,以提高FMEA的准确性.利用最低合理可行准则,从众多潜在失效模式中,分级确定危险程度,以便在施工过程中监控各危险源.
