Temporal and spatial variation of cloud cover in arid regions of Central Asia in the last 40 years

Water resources are one of the key factors restricting the development of arid areas,and cloud water resources is an important part of water resources.The arid region of central Asia is the core region of the current national green silk road construction,and is the largest arid region in the world.Based on cloud cover data of ECMWF,the current study analyzed temporal and spatial characteristics of cloud properties in arid regions of Central Asia between 1980 and 2019.Our findings show that:(1)From the point of view of spatial distribution,total cloudiness in arid regions of Central Asia was low in the south and high in the north.The distribution of high cloud frequency and medium cloud frequency was higher in the south and lower in the north,while low cloud frequency distribution was low in the south and high in the north.(2)In terms of time,the variation of cloud cover and cloud type frequency had obvious seasonal characteristics.From winter to spring,cloud cover increased,and the change of cloud type frequency increased.From spring to summer,cloud cover continued to increase and the change of cloud type frequency increased further.Cloud cover began to decrease from summer to autumn,and the change of cloud type frequency also decreased.(3)Generally,average total cloud cover decreased in most of central Asia,and high and medium cloud cover increased while low cloud cover decreased.This study provides a reference for the rational development of cloud resources in the region.

Variability and Long-Term Trend of Total Cloud Cover in China Derived from ISCCP, ERA-40, CRU3, and Ground Station Datasets

Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ERA-40）, Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.0 （CRU3）, and ground sta- tion datasets are used to show spatial and temporal varia- tion of TCC and their differences. It is demonstrated that the four datasets show similar spatial pattern and seasonal variation. The maximum value is derived from ISCCE TCC value in North China derived from ERA-40 is 50% larger than that from the station dataset; however, the value is 50% less than that in South China. The annual TCC of ISCCP, ERA-40, and ground station datasets shows a decreasing trend during 1984-2002; however, an increasing trend is derived from CRU3. The results of this study imply remarkable differences of TCC derived from surface and satellite observations as well as model simu- lations. The potential effects of these differences on cloud climatology and associated climatic issues should be carefully considered.

Comparison between MODIS-derived Day and Night Cloud Cover and Surface Observations over the North China Plain

Satellite and human visual observation are two of the most important observation approaches for cloud cover. In this study, the total cloud cover （TCC） observed by MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites was compared with Synop meteorological station observations over the North China Plain and its surrounding regions for 11 years during daytime and 7 years during nighttime. The Synop data were recorded eight times a day at 3-h intervals. Linear interpolation was used to interpolate the Synop data to the MODIS overpass time in order to reduce the temporal deviation between the satellite and Synop observations. Results showed that MODIS-derived TCC had good consistency with the Synop observations; the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.56 in winter to 0.73 in summer for Terra MODIS, and from 0.55 in winter to 0.71 in summer for Aqua MODIS. However, they also had certain differences. On average, the MODIS-derived TCC was 15.16% higher than the Synop data, and this value was higher at nighttime （15.58%-16.64%） than daytime （12.74%-14.14%）. The deviation between the MODIS and Synop TCC had large seasonal variation, being largest in winter （29.53%-31.07%） and smallest in summer （4.46%-6.07%）. Analysis indicated that cloud with low cloud-top height and small cloud optical thickness was more likely to cause observation bias. Besides, an increase in the satellite view zenith angle, aerosol optical depth, or snow cover could lead to positively biased MODIS results, and this affect differed among different cloud types.

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF LIGHT RAIN DAYS AND LOW CLOUD COVER UNDER HEAVY POLLUTION OVER SOUTH CHINA

By using the data set of light rain days and low cloud cover at 51 stations in South China(SC), and the method of linear regression and correlative analysis, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the light rain days and low cloud cover including annual variation and long-term seasonal change. The results are as follows:(1) The trends of light rain days and low cloud cover over SC are opposite(light rain days tended to decrease and low cloud cover tended to increase in the past 46 years). The value distributed in east is higher than that in west, and coastal area higher than inland area.(2) The regression coefficients of light rain days and low cloud cover during 1960-2005 are4.88 d/10 years and 1.14%/10 years respectively, which had all passed the 0.001 significance level.(3) Variations of light rain days are relatively small in spring and summer, but their contributions are larger for annual value than that of autumn and winter.(4) There are two regions with large values of aerosol optical depth(AOD), which distribute in central and southern Guangxi and Pearl River Delta(PRD) of Guangdong, and the value of AOD in PRD is up to 0.7.The aerosol index distributed in coastal area is higher than in the inland area, which is similar to the light rain days and low cloud cover over SC. Aerosol indexes in SC kept increasing with fluctuation during the past 27 years. The GDP of the three provinces in SC increased obviously during the past 28 years, especially in Guangdong, which exhibited that there is simultaneous correlation between light rain days with the variables of low cloud cover and release of aerosols over SC during 1960 to 2005.

Variations and Influence of Cloud Cover in Heze Region in Recent 52 Years

Based on the data of cloud cover, precipitation, temperature, sunshine hours and relative humidity from nine ground meteorological stations in Heze region in the southwest of Shandong Province from 1961 to 2012, changes of total and low cloud cover and its relationship with climatic factors associated in the southwest of Shandong Province in recent 52 years were analyzed. The results showed that average total cloud cover in- creased by 0.89%/10 a, but average low cloud cover decreased by 1.1%/10 a in Heze region in recent 52 years. The positive correlation between the average total cloud cover and temperature in autumn and winter was obvious, that is, when cloud cover increased by 10%, the average temper- ature increased by 0.48 ~C in autumn and increased by 0.83~（3 in winter. The average low. cloud cover negatively correlated with the average tam- perature in each season, and the negative correlation was very significant in spring. When cloud cover increased by 10%, the average temperature decreased by 1.49 ~C. The positive correlation between the average cloud cover and average precipitation was significant. The annual precipitation increased by 148.1 mm when annual mean total cloud cover increased by 10%. When seasonal mean cloud cover increased by 10%, the precipita- tion increased by 48.4, 107.1,55.4 and 12.2 mm in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively. The annual average total cloud cover and low cloud cover had significantly positive correlation with 〉~0.1, ~〉1.0, ~〉10 and ~〉25 mm precipitation days respectively. The sunshine hours were seriously influenced by cloud cover, and when cloud cover increased by 10%, the sunshine hours decreased by 54.5 h in spring, 134.2 h in sum- mer, 154.3 h in autumn and 60.6 h in winter. The total cloud cover significantly positively correlated with relative humidity in summer and autumn, and when cloud cover increased by 10%, the relative humidity increased by 3.3% in summer and 4.1% in autumn.

Absence of the Impact of the Flux of Cosmic Rays and the Cloud Cover on the Energy Balance of the Earth

The energy of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth,as well as the thermal radiation of the Earth’s surface,which is released to the space through the atmospheric transparency window,depends on variations of the area of the cloud cover.Svensmark et al.suggest that the increase in the area of the cloud cover in the lower atmosphere,presumably caused by an increase in the flux of galactic cosmic rays during the quasi-bicentennial minimum of solar activity,results only in an increase in the fraction of the solar radiation reflected back to the space and weakens the flux of the solar radiation that reached the Earth surface.It is suggested,without any corresponding calculations of the variations of the average annual energy balance of the EarthЕ,that the consequences will include only a deficit of the solar energy absorbed by the Earth and a cooling of the climate up to the onset of the Little Ice Age.These suggestions ignore simultaneous impact of the opposite aspects of the increase in the area of the cloud cover on the climate warming.The latter will result from a decrease in the power of thermal radiation of the Earth’s surface released to the space,and also in the power of the solar radiation reflected from the Earth’s surface,due to the increase in their absorption and reflection back to the surface.A substantial strengthening in the greenhouse effect and the narrowing of the atmospheric transparency window will also occur.Here,we estimate the impact of all aspects of possible long-term 2%growth of the cloud cover area in the lower atmosphere byЕ.We found that an increase in the cloud cover area in the lower atmosphere will result simultaneously both in the decrease and in the increase in the temperature,which will virtually compensate each other,while the energy balance of the Earth E before and after the increase in the cloud cover area by 2%will stay essentially the same:E1-E0≈0.

Changes in Global Cloud Cover Based on Remote Sensing Data from 2003 to 2012

As is well known,clouds impact the radiative budget,climate change,hydrological processes,and the global carbon,nitrogen and sulfur cycles.To understand the wide-ranging effects of clouds,it is necessary to assess changes in cloud cover at high spatial and temporal resolution.In this study,we calculate global cloud cover during the day and at night using cloud products estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)data.Results indicate that the global mean cloud cover from 2003 to 2012 was 66%.Moreover,global cloud cover increased over this recent decade.Specifically,cloud cover over land areas(especially North America,Antarctica,and Europe)decreased(slope=–0.001,R^2=0.5254),whereas cloud cover over ocean areas(especially the Indian and Pacific Oceans)increased(slope=0.0011,R^2=0.4955).Cloud cover is relatively high between the latitudes of 36°S and 68°S compared to other regions,and cloud cover is lowest over Oceania and Antarctica.The highest rates of increase occurred over Southeast Asia and Oceania,whereas the highest rates of decrease occurred over Antarctica and North America.The global distribution of cloud cover regulates global temperature change,and the trends of these two variables over the 10-year period examined in this study(2003–2012)oppose one another in some regions.These findings are very important for studies of global climate change.

Comparisons of GCM cloud cover parameterizations with cloud-resolving model explicit simulations

Three kinds of the widely-used cloudiness parameterizations are compared with data produced from the cloud-resolving model(CRM) simulations of the tropical cloud system. The investigated schemes include those based on relative humidity(RH), the semi-empirical scheme using cloud condensate as a predictor, and the statistical scheme based on probability distribution functions(PDFs). Results show that all three schemes are successful in reproducing the timing of cloud generation, except for the RH-based scheme, in which low-level clouds are artificially simulated during cloudless days. In contrast, the low-level clouds are well simulated in the semi-empirical and PDF-based statistical schemes, both of which are close to the CRM explicit simulations. In addition to the Gaussian PDF, two alternative PDFs are also explored to investigate the impact of different PDFs on cloud parameterizations. All the PDF-based parameterizations are found to be inaccurate for high cloud simulations, in either the magnitude or the structure. The primary reason is that the investigated PDFs are symmetrically assumed, yet the skewness factors in deep convective cloud regimes are highly significant, indicating the symmetrical assumption is not well satisfied in those regimes. Results imply the need to seek a skewed PDF in statistical schemes so that it can yield better performance in high cloud simulations.

Spatio-temporal differences in cloud cover of Landsat-8 OLI observations across China during 2013–2016

Currently, the historical archive images of Landsat family sensors are probably the most effective data products for tracking global longitudinal changes since the 1970 s. However, the issue of the degree and extent of cloud coverage is always a challenge and varies distinctively worldwide. So far, acquisition probability（AP） analyses of cloud cover（CC） of Landsat observations have been conducted with different sensors at regional scale. To our knowledge, CC probability analysis for the newly-launched Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager（OLI） across China is not reported. In this paper, monthly, seasonal, and annual APs for Landsat OLI（44,228 in total） images over China acquired from April 2013 to October 2016 with various CC thresholds were analyzed. The results showed that： first, the cumulative average APs of all OLI data over China at the CC thresholds ≤30% was about 49.6% which illustrated the availability of OLI imagery across China. Second, the spatial patterns of 10%, 20%, and 30% CC thresholds of OLI observations, coincided well with the precipitation distributions separated by the respective 200 mm, 400 mm, and 800 mm isohyetal lines. Third, the APs of images with the 30% CC threshold are the highest in autumn and winter especially in October of 58.7%, while the corresponding lowest probability occurred in June of 41.0%. Finally, the spatial differences in APs of targeted images with ≤30% CC thresholds were quite significant. At regional scales, the arid and semi-arid areas, Inland River and Songliao River basins, and northwestern side of the Hu Huanyong population line had the larger probabilities of obtaining high-quality images. Our study suggested that OLI imagery satisfy the data requirements needed for land surface monitoring, although there existed obvious spatio-temporal differences in APs over China at the 30% CC threshold.

A new MODIS daily cloud free snow cover mapping algorithm on the Tibetan Plateau

Because of similar reflective characteristics of snow and cloud, the weather status seriously affects snow monitoring using optical remote sensing data. Cloud amount analysis during 2010 to 2011 snow seasons shows that cloud cover is the major limitation for snow cover monitoring using MOD10A1 and MYD10A1. By use of MODIS daily snow cover products and AMSR-E snow wa- ter equivalent products （SWE）, several cloud elimination methods were integrated to produce a new daily cloud flee snow cover product, and information of snow depth from 85 climate stations in Tibetan Plateau area （TP） were used to validate the accuracy of the new composite snow cover product. The results indicate that snow classification accuracy of the new daily snow cover product reaches 91.7% when snow depth is over 3 cm. This suggests that the new daily snow cover mapping algorithm is suitable for monitoring snow cover dynamic changes in TP.

Trends in Global Solar Radiation and Sunshine Duration in Past Two Decades in Japan

Global solar radiation (GSR) is an essential physical quantity for agricultural management and designing infrastructures. Because GSR has often been modeled as a function of sunshine duration (SD) and day length for a given set of locations and calendar days, analyzing interannual trends in GSR and SD is important to evaluate, predict or regulate the cycles of energy and water between geosphere and atmosphere. This study aimed to exemplify interannual trends in GSR and SD, which had been recorded from 2001 to 2022 in 40 meteorological stations in Japan, and validate the applicability of an SD-based model to the evaluation of GSR. Both the measured GSR and SD had increased in many of the stations in the study period with averaged rates of 0.252 [W·m−2·y−1] and 0.015 [h·d−1·y−1], respectively. The offset and the slope of the SD-based model were estimated by fitting the model to the measured data sets and were found to have been almost constant with the averages of 0.201[-] and 0.566[-], respectively, indicating that characteristics of the SD-GSR relation had not varied for the 22-year period and that the model and its parameter set can be stationarily applicable to the analyses and predictions of GSR in recent years. The stable trends in both parameters also implied that the upward trend in SD can be a main explanatory factor for that in the measured GSR. The upward trend in SD had coincided with the increase in the frequency of heavy-shortened rains, suggesting that the time period of each rainfall event had gradually decreased, which may be attributable to the obtained upward trend in SD. Further studies are required to clarify if there is some cause-effect relation between the changes in rainfall patterns and the standard level of solar radiation reaching the land surface.

CMA-BJ系统总云量预报性能检验评估

云是天气气候中最重要、最活跃的因子之一,对大气系统的辐射能量平衡和水分循环起到重要调制作用。对总云量进行有技巧的预报也为更好把握天气现象、预测光伏发电等新能源出力提供客观依据。中国气象局北京快速更新循环数值预报系统(CMA-BJ)可提供我国逐小时高分辨率总云量预报产品,本文采用时间尺度分离的方法对其预报性能开展系统性评估,并对误差来源进行分析,从而为产品释用和模式改进提供参考。结果表明,CMA-BJ总体能够抓住总云量的空间分布以及日变化强度特征,在1~24 h时效预报和观测的总云量空间相关系数在各月均超过0.6,但在冬季(1月)对总云量和日变化强度存在较为明显的低估,全国平均云量负偏差达-0.133。随着预报时效的延长,模式对云量逐时变率的预报能力有所下降,预报第1至第4天的平均TCC分别为0.470、0.409、0.355、0.315,有技巧的预报可维持至48~72 h。诊断分析表明,模式中相对湿度偏小可能是造成总云量预报负偏差的主要来源之一,垂直速度预报偏差也是影响云量预报误差的重要原因。

基于车载LiDAR数据的城市道路井盖提取与病害检测

使用传统的道路测量方法进行路面井盖病害信息的获取存在安全性差且效率低等问题,为了提高作业效率,本文提出基于移动车载激光扫描系统的路面井盖病害检测方法。首先,基于城市道路点云的反射特征及空间分布特征,提出使用一种基于布料模拟的滤波算法(Cloth Simulation Filter,CSF)进行地面点云提取;其次,使用自适应阈值方法对生成的点云强度图像进行二值化;最后通过限制参数的Hough圆检测方法实现井盖的定位与提取。以潍坊市潍城区某段道路点云数据进行试验,得出的结论为:提取井盖的平面精度为±0.048 m,井盖沉降残差值中误差为±0.0117 m,满足常规的井盖病害检测项目的精度要求。

多特征多层次Sentinel-2影像辽宁省湖库水体提取

以辽宁省为研究区,本文基于GEE遥感云平台,使用Sentinel-2遥感影像,提出了一种多特征多层次的湖库水体提取算法。该算法选择自动水体指数(AWEI sh)和改进的归一化水体指数(MNDWI)提取水体,并利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)、归一化建筑指数(NDBI)、归一化差异红边指数(NDREI)、Sentinel-2的B8和B9波段及DEM数据多层次地消除暗地物和高亮地物噪声,对提取结果中被云雾遮挡而部分缺失的水体进行修复,最后将河流及细小像素剔除。利用此算法提取了辽宁省2017—2021年每年4、7、10月的湖库水体,并对比了不同水体提取算法及不同的水体数据产品。试验结果表明,本文算法在大尺度条件下提取水体具有良好的效果,总体精度达96%以上,可以较好地去除植被、阴影等暗像元表面,并且保证了水体信息的完整性,在大尺度水体提取方面具有一定的适用性和稳定性。

近几十年青藏高原与华北地区地表太阳辐射变化特征及其影响因素的对比分析

地表太阳总辐射具有较大的时空变化特征,不同地区的影响因素也存在显著差异。本文利用1961—2016年青藏高原与华北地区的地表太阳总辐射资料,在进行严格的质量控制和均一化处理的基础上,深入分析了两个地区总辐射的年际变化趋势,同时结合云量和气溶胶光学厚度观测资料,探讨了两个地区总辐射变化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)1961—2016年青藏高原和华北地区总辐射总体呈下降趋势,但2008年后青藏高原西部和东部地区总辐射变化趋势相反,而华北地区站点总辐射均呈上升趋势。(2)青藏高原西部地区总辐射的下降主要受到云量变化的影响,而东部地区低云量和气溶胶的下降是总辐射上升的重要原因。(3)在2006—2016年,华北地区总辐射的变化受气溶胶的影响更加显著。

梅雨期持续性暴雨过程云—辐射—降水的关系

本文利用站点观测数据以及ERA5再分析资料分析了2006—2020年14次长江中下游地区梅雨期持续性暴雨的基本特征以及过程中云—辐射—降水的关系。结果表明,在梅雨期持续性暴雨过程中,降水呈纬向分布;云量分布随高度向南倾斜,中云分布与降水分布对应良好,高云分布在降水区南侧;降水发生时,梅雨锋北侧中低云增加,南侧高云增加,北侧中低云辐射降温以及南侧高云温室效应和暖平流共同作用造成梅雨锋两侧温差增大,锋面加强使得持续性暴雨得以维持。

Development of Cloud Movement Prediction Method for Solar Photovoltaic System

Variability of power generation due to the prevalence of cloud cover over solar photovoltaics(PV)power plants is a challenge faced by grid operators and independent system operators(ISOs)in the integration of solar energy into the grid.Solar forecasts generated through ground⁃based sky imaging systems are useful for short⁃term cloud motion predictions.However,the cost of sky imaging systems currently available in industries is relatively high.Hence,a ground⁃based camera system utilizing a simple webcam is proposed in this study.The proposed method can produce predictions with high levels of accuracy.Forecasts were generated through video analysis using MATLAB for the computation of cloud motion predictions.The image processing involved in the implementation of the proposed system is based on the detection of cloud regions in the form of a cluster of white pixels within individual frames and tracking their motion through comparison of subsequent frames.This study describes the techniques and processes used in the development of the proposed method,along with the evaluation of performance through analysis of the results.The predictions were carried out over multiple time horizons.The time horizons selected include 5,10,15,20,25,and 30 s.The overall results computed showed promising accuracy levels above 94.60%,which makes it adequate for generating reliable forecasts.

基于MODIS云量产品的湖北省格点日照时数计算

利用2019—2021年MODIS遥感云量资料,基于地面气象观测日照百分率数据与卫星遥感云量之间存在的负相关关系,按照不同月份、不同区域建立反演计算模型,计算了湖北省1 km空间分辨率的月日照百分率和日照时数,并选取代表性地面气象站观测资料对日照时数计算结果进行验证。结果表明:湖北省各气候区月平均遥感云量与日照百分率之间均为极显著相关,各代表站年日照时数计算相对误差均小于2%,月日照时数计算值误差小于10 h,表明构建的日照时数反演模型计算精度较高。计算得到湖北省年日照时数在854.8~1952.8 h。湖北省西南西部为日照时数最少的地区,年日照时数低于1100 h;湖北省东北北部和湖北省西北南部是日照时数最多的地区,年日照时数大于1850 h。从日照时数反演结果中还可以发现,受水陆热力条件差异影响,湖北省平原地区湖泊水体云量比周边陆地偏少,日照时数比周边陆地偏大。

Observation of clouds and solar radiation over the Pacific Ocean as relation to global climate

During a research cruise over the Pacific Ocean in 1989, solar irradiance was measured with a broad-band pyranometer along the cruise track. Cloud cover was photographed with an all-sky time-lapse came ra. Cloud types were observed and recorded. The data show that both the types and the amounts of clouds affect radiation fluxes on the sea surface. For low-level and middle-level clouds, the correlations (r) between measured irradiance (in Percent of calculated maximum irradiance) and cloud amount (in fraction of sky) were significant: r=-0. 79 and - 0. 66, respectively. For high-level clouds, the correlation was not significant: r=-0. 21. The results indicate that cloud shortwave forcing is a major modifier of the earth's surface insolation and change of cloud amount may affect global climate.

Decomposition of Fast and Slow Cloud Responses to Quadrupled CO_(2)Forcing in BCC–AGCM2.0 over East Asia

In this study,the decomposed fast and slow responses of clouds to an abruptly quadrupled CO_(2)concentration(approximately 1139 ppmv)in East Asia(EA)are obtained quantitatively by using a general circulation model,BCC–AGCM2.0.Our results show that in the total response,the total cloud cover(TCC),low cloud cover(LCC),and high cloud cover(HCC)all increased north of 40°N and decreased south of 40°N except in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The mean changes of the TCC,LCC,and HCC in EA were–0.74%,0.38%,and–0.38%in the total response,respectively;1.05%,–0.03%,and 1.63%in the fast response,respectively;and–1.79%,0.41%,and–2.01%in the slow response,respectively.By comparison,we found that changes in cloud cover were dominated by the slow response in most areas in EA due to the changes in atmospheric temperature,circulation,and water vapor supply together.Overall,the changes in the cloud forcing over EA related to the fast and slow responses were opposite to each other,and the final cloud forcing was dominated by the slow response.The mean net cloud forcing(NCF)in the total response over EA was–1.80 W m^(–2),indicating a cooling effect which partially offset the warming effect caused by the quadrupled CO_(2).The total responses of NCF in the TP,south China(SC),and northeast China(NE)were–6.74 W m^(–2),6.11 W m^(–2),and–7.49 W m^(–2),respectively.Thus,the local effects of offsetting or amplifying warming were particularly obvious.