The Evolution of Urban and Rural Construction Land Based on Spatial Econometrics:A Case Study of Bijie City

Based on the theory of spatial econometrics,we test and process the urban and rural construction land data during the base period of planning and late period of planning in Bijie City.And we conduct comparative analysis of the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of urban and rural construction land in 41 towns of Bijie City before and after the planning.According to Getis-ord G i coefficient test results,the cold spot area of urban and rural construction land in northeast of Bijie City will gradually disappear,and the key point of hot spot area will be gradually transferred from the central region to the central and eastern regions.The results show that under the guidance of the overall land use planning in Bijie City,the urban and rural construction land will show strong spatial autocorrelation;agglomeration benefits and scale merit will appear clearly,in line with the actual situation of current development of Bijie City.

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CHINA＇S EXPORT-ORIENTED ECONOMY SLOWS With inflation and industrial activity significantly cooling in November, China is now taking measures to counter slowing economic growth.

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GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMMINENT With inflation easing in August,China is now bracing itself for slower global economic growth by looking within its own borders. After more than a year and a half of monetary tightening, China’s Consumer Price Index(CPI) eased slightly to 6.2 percent in August(see Chart 1),down from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July and effectively marking the end of five consecutive monthly increases.Although inflation might have finally peaked, policymakers will unlikely ease tightening measures as long as the inflation rate remains above the government’s target of 4

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CHINA： TITAN OF CLEAN ENERGYModern China is typically associated with heavy pollution, spurred on by the country＇s rapid industrialization, which has enabled its economy to grow at an average rate of around 10 percent per annum over the last three decades. China, with a population of more than 1.3 billion, overtook the United States as the largest consumer of energy in 2010. However, recent times have seen an unprecedented uptake in the adoption of renewable energy sources,

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ECONOMY STAYS ON TARGETChina＇s consumer inflation edged higher in October, with the Con- sumer Price Index （CPI） rising 3,2 percent year on year, its fastest pace in eight months （see Chart 1）. The latest reading held within manageable levels, giving policy makers room to focus on maintain- ing steady growth. The rise was largely due to mounting food prices, with vegetables jumping 31.5 percent.

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TURNAROUND GAINS MOMENTUMChina＇s annual consumer inflation for January eased from a seven-month high in December, with the Consumer Price Index （CPI） falling to 2.0 percent, down from the 2.5 percent registered in December （see Chart I）. Most analysts believe that January＇s down- ward trend will prove to be temporary, and expect the country＇s inflation will pick up in coming months. The People＇s Bank of China reflected this thinking in its quarterly monetary policy report, which warned of inflationary risks due to rebounding demand, labor supply changes and global monetary easing. In contrast to the CPI chanses, factory gate prices maintained their momentum, as the Producer Price Index （PPI） fell by 1.6 percent in January, easing from December＇s 1.9 percent drop and providing another indication that China＇s economic growth is stabilizing （see Chart 2）. Wholesale prices are expected to pick up soon as warmer weather leads to more construction activity throughout the country.

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GDP GROWTH HITS THREE-YEAR LOWInflation in China continued to ease in June, with the Con- sumer Price Index （CPI） hitting a 29-month low of 2.2 percent year on year, down from May＇s 3 percent rise （see Chart 1）. June marked the fifth straight month inflation has stayed below the government＇s official target of 4 percent for the year, creating more room for policymakers to ease monetary policy and stimulate growth. Overall inflation has slowed to 3 percent in the first half of 2012, a significant decrease from the 5.4-percent increase for all of 2011. The cost of food, the main contributor to inflation last year, continued to moderate in June. Food prices, which make up roughly a third of CPI, were up 3.8 percent from a year earlier, slowing from April＇s 6.4-per- cent rate. Pork prices in particular fell 12.2 percent from 2011. Meanwhile, non-food prices remain unchanged at 1.4 percent.

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PRIORITIZING STABILITY OVER GROWTH Although China’s economy showed surprising resilience in July,China still faces intense inflationary pressures in the shortterm along with medium- and long-term risks in the global economy. Even after a year and a half of monetary tightening,China’s Consumer Price Index(CPI) increased further to 6.5 percent in July(see Chart 1),the highest level in more than three years. This was the fifth consecutive monthly increase,leading many to believe that inflation might finally be peaking in China.Food

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CHINA＇S SHIFTING ECONOMYInflation crept up slightly for a 2.4-percent increase in the con-sumer price index （CPI） in March from the 2.0-percent increase registered in the combined January to February period. The large increase in the cost of fruit and vegetables, 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively, contributed to this overall increase in the CP The low figures for CPI fall significantly below 3.5 percent, China＇s annual target for the whole year of 2014, which effectively gives the Chinese Government more options for steering the economy.

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WEAK INDICATORS HEIGHTENING CONCERNS Inflation in China rose in August, with the Consumer Price Index （CPI） rising 2 percent, up from July＇s 30-month low of 1.8 percent （see Chart 1）. While August marked the seventh straight month inflation stayed below the government＇s

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Anumber of African countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo （DRC）.Tanzania and South Africa are deliberating amendrnents to their mining law. which could potentially, amongst other things, see all increase in state ownership, require more beneficiation at the source, and greater participation in mining activities by local communities.

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ECONOMY CONTINUES STEADY RECOVERYChina＇s consumer inflation picked up in September, with the Consumer Price Index （CPI） risin8 3.1 percent year on year, its fastest pace in seven months （see Chart 1）. Even with the latest increase, policy makers are still on tarset to keep the consumer inflation rate within about 3.5 percent this year. The CPI increase was mostly due to seasonal factors pushin8 food prices hisher, with fresh vesetable prices sursin8 18.9 percent. Meanwhile,

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MODERATING INFLATION & SLOWING GROWTH INDUCES POLICY LOOSENING With inflation continuing to ease in October,China is now pondering whether to selectively loosen tight monetary policy to offset slowing global economic growth. To the relief of consumers and policymakers alike,inflation continued to ease in China,with prices increasing by 5.5

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MORE INFLATION, MORE TIGHTENING The most important indicator in China right now is still the Consumer Price Index(CPI),and it is progressively heading toward 6 percent.This is leading Chinese Government to prolong monetary tighteninc measures,and this in turn is inhibiting the flow of credit and reducing manufacturing growth in China. As reported several times in previous editions of the Econometer in 2011,inflation undoubtedly remains a fundamental challenge facing China’s

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RESILIENT DOMESTIC DEMANDThe GDP growth in the first quarter came in higher than expected at 6.9 percent year on year in China, the fastest since the third quarter of 2015. This was driven by fixed asset invest- ment and property investment, which grew 9.2 percent and 9.1 percent year on year respectively, both beating expectations. China＇s services sector remained robust in the first quarter of the year, increasing by 8.3 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year and in line with policymakers＇ efforts to rebalance the economy toward ser- vices and consumption. March retail sales registered double digit growth at 10.9 percent year on year after easing to 9.5 percent in the January to February period.

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INFLATION DIP ALLOWS POLICY MANOEUYRING China registered a significant drop in inflation, with the CPI dropping to 3.2 percent in February, from 4.5 percent in January （see Chart 1）. The sharp drop can partly be attributed to the fading of temporary price hikes related to heightened demand

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ROOM FOR STIMULUS AS GROWTH SLOWSInflation in China slowed to a two-year low in May, with the Consumer Price Index （CPI） up 3.0 percent compared to a year earlier and down from April＇s 3.4 percent pace （see Chart I）. May marked the fourth straight month in which inflation has stayed below the government＇s official target of 4 percent for the year and gave policymakers additional room to loosen policy and stimulate growth. The cost of food, the main con- tributor to inflation last year, continued to moderate in May. Food prices were up 6.4 percent from a year earlier, slowing from April＇s 7 percent rate. Meanwhile, non-food prices were up 1.4 percent year on year, down from April＇s 1.8 percent.

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CHINA SECURES TURNAROUNDInflation in China quickened in December, with the Consumer Price Index （CPI） rising to 2.5 percent, up from the 2.0 percent registered in November （see Chart 1）. China＇s coldest winter in almost three decades is raising inflation fears due to spikes in food and energy prices. Lower-than-average temperatures in both north and south China are prompting higher demand for natural gas and disrupt- ing agricultural production. The Chinese Government is currently moving to contain rising produce prices by lowering power and distribution costs for vegetable producers and transporters, releas- ing vegetable reserves and calling on companies to maximize gas output and raise imports. Factory gate prices continued their momentum, as the Producer Price Index （PPI） fell by 1.9 percent in December, easing from November＇s 2.2 percent drop （see Chart 2）.

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LUNAR NEW YEAR PAINTS MIXED PICTUREChina＇s consumer inflation held steady in January, with the Con- sumer Price Index （CPI） rising 2.5 percent year on year, matching December＇s figure （see Chart I）. Overall, China＇s inflation rate remained subdued, especially since China＇s CPI typically spikes around the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which fell at the end of January. The general consensus is that consumer inflation could average more than 3 percent in 2014, as concerns over growing debt overshadow slowing economic growth. Despite a slowing economy and steady price rises, the People＇s Bank of China is unlikely to cut interest rates as it remains steadfast in its commitment to slow the growth of credit, Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index （PPI） fell by 1.6 percent after dropping 1.4 percent in December （see Chart 2）. January marked the 23rd consecutive month that prices paid for finished goods at the fac- tory gate registered deflation.

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CHINA＇S POLICYMAKERS DECIPHER LUNAR NEW YEAR SKEWED DATA Consumer inflation in China rose for the first time since peaking last July,climbing to 4.5 percent in January,up from the 4.1 percent registered in December（see Chart 1）.This increase can be largely attributed to rising food prices,as Chinese consumers spend more for Lunar New Year festivities,arguably China＇s most significant holiday.The biggest contributor by far to the