Dynamic response pattern of gold prices to economic policy uncertainty

Based on a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model,the time-varying effects and country differences of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on gold prices from August 2006 to December 2017 were examined.The results show that the effects of global economic policy uncertainty(GEPU)shock on gold prices change over time.The changes were positive during 2006-2008 and 2013-2017,while the impacts were negative during 2009-2012,implying that the efficiency of gold as a safe haven is not stable and depends on economic conditions.There are significant country differences regarding the impact of EPU on the price of gold,particularly during the international financial crisis,European debt crisis and Trump election.During the international financial crisis,EPU exerts a positive impact on gold prices in most countries.During the European debt crisis,the impact of EPU on gold prices is mainly negative in the examined countries.While during the Trump election,the impact displays positive and negative alternating in most countries.

The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID‑19 pandemic:does economic policy uncertainty matter?

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.

Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH‑MIDAS model

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.

Preventing crash in stock market:The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID‑19

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.

Raising capital amid economic policy uncertainty:an empirical investigation

This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.

The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Habit Formation on Rural Residents’ Consumption

Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.

体育消费价格波动与CPI、EPU的时变关系特征——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型

采用TVP-SV-VAR模型,研究湖北省体育消费价格波动与居民消费价格波动(CPI)、经济政策不确定性(EPU)的时变关系。采用Matlab软件实证分析发现,体育消费价格对居民消费价格的时变响应在短期为正向,响应波动幅度比较缓和,中期、长期响应方向比较接近,多以负向响应为主。体育消费价格波动对经济政策不确定性的时变响应在短期、中期、长期均呈波浪趋势,正向响应与负向响应交替出现,且长期响应程度较大。不同时点下,体育消费价格对居民消费价格波动、经济政策不确定性的响应存在显著差异,响应方向不同,波动幅度不同。建议增强经济政策稳定性,稳住体育消费预期;建立体育消费价格监测体系,加强体育市场监管;扩大体育消费有效供给,促进城镇、乡村体育消费协调增长。

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Heterogeneity of Executives and Enterprise Innovation

This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.

How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact a Country's Position in Global Value Chains?

Economic globalization in the 21st century has been characterized by the rise and spread of global value chains(GVCs).It faces significant challenges due to increasing domestic and international policy uncertainty in the context of emerging mega risks like geopolitical tensions and climate change.This paper begins by constructing a theoretical model for an open economy to study how risk-averse firms make decisions regarding the sourcing of intermediate inputs in an uncertain environment.Our model solution proposes that firms will source fewer intermediate inputs from countries with more economic uncertainty.An increase in domestic and foreign uncertainty will have opposite impacts on a country's position in GVCs.In this sense,we argue that a country tends to move downstream along GVCs if its own economic policies become more uncertain,and it tends to move upstream with an increase in the uncertainty of its trading partner countries.Our regression analyses,based on data including the World Input-Output Database,World Development Indicators,the UN Comtrade database,and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index,provide empirical support for this model-based conclusion.Our findings highlight that a nation must consider foreign economic policy uncertainty and maintain domestic policy stability to participate in GVCs.

Economic policy uncertainty and firms’investments in venture capital funds:Evidence from China

The latest business practice in the Chinese venture capital(VC)market involves the active participation of non-financial firms,as limited partners,in VC funds.Exploiting a unique hand-collected dataset from China,we find that economic policy uncertainty is positively related to the propensity of firms to participate in VC funds.Cross-sectional tests show that the positive effect of policy uncertainty on the likelihood of participating in VC funds is enhanced by industrial growth opportunities.Furthermore,economic consequence tests show that participating in VC funds is conducive to improving investment efficiency,increasing innovation performance and promoting product diversification.This study advances our understanding of firms’investment decisions and the VC industry development amid economic policy uncertainty.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

经济政策不确定性与企业“漂绿”行为

近年来企业“漂绿”现象屡见不鲜,已成为经济可持续发展的绊脚石。文章基于2010—2021年A股上市公司数据,分析经济政策不确定性如何影响企业“漂绿”行为。研究发现:经济政策不确定性与企业“漂绿”行为之间呈现“U”型关系,且样本期间经济政策不确定性大多处于“U”型左侧,发挥抑制企业“漂绿”行为的作用;调节效应分析表明,环境规制、环境认证、媒体关注和高管环保认知可以弱化经济政策不确定性与企业“漂绿”行为之间的“U”型关系。研究结论不仅深化了对企业“漂绿”行为影响因素的认识,也从外部宏观波动的角度为规范企业行为提供了新的见解。

数字化转型、服务化融合与制造业企业绩效提升——兼论经济政策不确定性的调节效应

引入经济政策不确定性作为调节变量,从嵌入式服务化和混入式服务化的双重融合视角,研究数字化转型提升制造业企业绩效的理论机制和作用路径。在此基础上,采用2008—2020年制造业A股上市公司数据对理论机制进行实证检验。研究结果显示:数字化转型能够提升企业绩效,嵌入式服务化发挥了正向中介作用,但在区域分布、所有制结构和技术水平等方面具有明显的异质性;数字化转型能够抑制混入式服务化中制造业企业的“脱实向虚”行为;经济政策的不确定性会增强数字化转型对嵌入式服务化的推动作用和对混入式服务化的抑制作用。

基于近端策略优化算法含碳捕集的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

为了实现园区综合能源系统(PIES)的低碳化经济运行和多能源互补,解决碳捕集装置耗电与捕碳需求之间的矛盾,以及不确定性源荷实时响应的问题,提出了基于近端策略优化算法含碳捕集的综合能源系统低碳经济调度方法。该方法通过在PIES中添加碳捕集装置,解决了碳捕集装置耗电和捕碳需求之间的矛盾,进而实现了PIES的低碳化运行;通过采用近端策略优化算法对PIES进行动态调度,解决了源荷的不确定性,平衡了各种能源的供给需求,进而降低了系统的运行成本。实验结果表明:该方法实现了不确定性源荷的实时响应,并相比于DDPG(deep deterministic policy gradient)和DQN(deep Q network)方法在低碳化经济运行方面具有有效性及先进性。

经济政策不确定性、经济金融化与企业影子银行

经济政策不确定性对企业影子银行的影响是否一成不变?考虑到2008年后快速发展的经济金融化,本文基于2000—2019年中国沪深A股上市非金融企业的财务数据对此进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,经济过度金融化形成前,经济政策不确定性上升会抑制企业影子银行;经济过度金融化形成后,经济政策不确定性会促进企业影子银行。这种阶段性差异形成的原因在于经济过度金融化造成了企业影子银行与实体经营活动之间关系的转变,并主要通过运营资产传导。第二,经济金融化程度具有正向调节作用,其强化了经济政策不确定性对企业影子银行的差异性影响。第三,经济过度金融化形成后,具备融资优势或处于经营弱势的企业更易从事影子银行活动,且两者对于企业影子银行的扩张效应具有叠加影响。本文对于从根本上解决影子银行风险问题有一定的政策启示。

董事网络位置对企业风险承担的影响研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

风险承担是企业实现持续发展的重要因素。基于社会网络视角,本文运用中国A股上市公司2011~2022年的样本数据,实证研究了董事网络位置对企业风险承担的影响及其作用机理。结果表明:董事网络中心度显著提升了企业风险承担水平,结构洞对企业风险承担起到显著的抑制作用。知识溢出在董事网络中心度以及结构洞对企业风险承担的影响中均发挥遮掩效应;进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性正向调节董事网络位置对企业风险承担水平的影响。基于研究结论,企业应该合理构建董事网络关系;优化董事网络结构,适度获取外部知识,提升决策质量。

全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动——基于非对称视角的理论与实证分析

随着全球经济一体化的加深,全球经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率对中国经济波动产生越来越大的影响。基于非对称影响的视角,构建一个融入全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率和经济波动的Mundell-Fleming模型,从理论上分析各要素的非对称影响机制。实证结果表明:短期内人民币升值对物价水平的抑制效应大于贬值对物价水平的促进效应,长期内人民币升值对经济增长的抑制效应大于贬值对经济增长的促进效应;此外,无论在短期还是长期,全球经济政策不确定性降低对物价水平和经济增长的促进作用都大于经济政策不确定性上升的抑制效应。以上结果均通过稳健性检验。因此,央行需要加强对汇率与全球经济政策不确定性对物价水平和经济增长的非对称效应的关注,以实现中国经济的平稳运行。

经济政策不确定性、投资者情绪与银行系统性风险传染

面对经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪,银行业需承担应对经济衰退、化解银行风险和实现经济高质量稳定增长的责任。本文利用MVMQ-CAViaR模型测度了2008—2021年所有上市银行的系统性风险,构建面板门限回归模型和面板平滑转换模型,研究在投资者情绪转换作用下经济政策不确定性影响银行系统性风险多重传染的边际效应结构变化。研究表明:投资者情绪具有显著的区制转换效应,使经济不确定性影响银行系统性风险多重传染的净边际效应,以指数转换模式发生结构变化。据此提出正确处理经济政策不确定性与银行系统性风险的关系,投资者要保持理性情绪以及监管部门要加强监管的建议。

经济不确定性对金融市场的影响机理——基于时变风险偏好视角

本文运用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型考察宏观不确定性和经济政策不确定性对金融市场的影响,并从时变风险偏好视角出发揭示该影响的机理。结果显示,经济不确定性对股票市场的影响最大,其次是货币市场,债券市场受到的影响最小;宏观不确定性主要通过“流动性偏好”渠道、“流动性资产转移”渠道、“错失恐惧”渠道影响金融资产价格变动,在宏观不确定性处于低于预期的高波动区间和宏观不确定性较高时,“流动性偏好”渠道在即期发挥的作用和“流动性资产转移”渠道、“错失恐惧”渠道在远期发挥的作用较大;经济政策不确定性主要通过“流动性资产转移”渠道和“安全资产转移”渠道影响金融资产价格变动,2008年后,在经济政策不确定性较低时,这两种渠道在即期发挥的作用较大。