Assessment of challenges and strategies for driving energy transitions in emerging markets:A socio-technological systems perspective

The pursuit of improved quality of life standards has significantly influenced the contemporary mining model in the 21st century.This era is witnessing an unprecedented transformation driven by pressing concerns related to sustainability,climate change,the just energy transition,dynamic operating environments,and complex social challenges.Such transitions present both opportunities and obstacles.The aim of this study is to provide an extensive literature review on energy transition to identify the challenges and strategies associated with navigating transformations in energy systems.Understanding these transformations is particularly critical in the face of the severe consequences of global warming,where an accelerated energy transition is viewed as a universal remedy.Adopting a socio-technological systems perspective,specifically through the application of Actor Network Theory(ANT),this research provides a theoretical foundation while categorising challenges into five distinct domains and outlining strategies across these different dimensions.These insights are specifically tailored for emerging market countries to effectively navigate energy transition while fostering the development of resilient societies.Furthermore,our findings highlight that energy transition encompasses more than a mere technological shift;it entails fundamental changes in various systemic socio-economic imperatives.Through focusing on the role of social structures in transitions,this study makes a significant and innovative contribution to ANT,which has historically been criticised for its limited acknowledgement of social structures.Consequently,we propose an emerging market energy transition framework,which not only addresses technological aspects,but also integrates social considerations.This framework paves the way for future research and exploration of energy transition dynamics.The outcomes of this study offer valuable insights to policymakers,researchers,and practitioners engaged in the mining industry,enabling them to comprehend the multifaceted challenges involved and providing practical strategies for effective resolution.Through incorporating the social dimension into the analysis,we enhance the understanding of the complex nature of energy system transformations,facilitating a more holistic approach towards achieving sustainable and resilient energy transitions in emerging markets and beyond.

The Impact of the Energy Transition and Sustainable Development Goals on Mineral Resource Availability in Africa

Understanding and predicting the impact of the global energy transition and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on global mineral demand and African supply is challenging. This study uses a resource nexus approach to investigate and analyze the impact of this transition on energy and water demand and CO2 emissions using three annual material demand scenarios. The results indicate that African mining will consume more energy by 2050, leading to an increase in cumulative demand for energy (from 98 to 14,577 TWh) and water (from 15,013 to 223,000 million m3), as well as CO2 emissions (1318 and 19,561 Gg CO2e). In contrast, only a modest increase in energy demand (207 TWh) will be required by 2050 to achieve the SDGs. Therefore, the African mining industry should reduce its energy consumption and invest more in the renewable energy sector to support the global energy transition.

Gleaning insights from German energy transition and large-scale underground energy storage for China’s carbon neutrality

The global energy transition is a widespread phenomenon that requires international exchange of experiences and mutual learning.Germany’s success in its first phase of energy transition can be attributed to its adoption of smart energy technology and implementation of electricity futures and spot marketization,which enabled the achievement of multiple energy spatial–temporal complementarities and overall grid balance through energy conversion and reconversion technologies.While China can draw from Germany’s experience to inform its own energy transition efforts,its 11-fold higher annual electricity consumption requires a distinct approach.We recommend a clean energy system based on smart sector coupling(ENSYSCO)as a suitable pathway for achieving sustainable energy in China,given that renewable energy is expected to guarantee 85%of China’s energy production by 2060,requiring significant future electricity storage capacity.Nonetheless,renewable energy storage remains a significant challenge.We propose four large-scale underground energy storage methods based on ENSYSCO to address this challenge,while considering China’s national conditions.These proposals have culminated in pilot projects for large-scale underground energy storage in China,which we believe is a necessary choice for achieving carbon neutrality in China and enabling efficient and safe grid integration of renewable energy within the framework of ENSYSCO.

Characteristics of PM_(2.5) and Its Reactive Oxygen Species in Heating Energy Transition and Estimation of Its Impact on the Environment and Health in China——A Case Study in the Fenwei Plain

To reduce the adverse effects of traditional domestic solid fuel,the central government began implementing a clean heating policy in northern China in 2017.Clean coal is an alternative low-cost fuel for rural households at the present stage.In this study,18 households that used lump coal,biomass,and clean coal as the main fuel were selected to evaluate the benefits of clean heating transformation in Tongchuan,an energy city in the Fenwei Plain,China.Both indoor and personal exposure(PE)samples of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))were synchronically collected.Compared with the lump coal and biomass groups,the indoor PM_(2.5)concentration in the clean coal group is 43.6%and 20.0%lower,respectively,while the values are 16.8%and 21.3%lower,respectively,in the personal exposure samples.PM_(2.5)-bound elements Cd,Ni,Zn,and Mn strongly correlated with reactive oxygen species(ROS)levels in all fuel groups,indicating that transition metals are the principal components to generate oxidative stress.Using a reliable estimation method,it is predicted that after the substitution of clean coal as a household fuel,the all-cause,cardiovascular,and respiratory disease that causes female deaths per year could be reduced by 16,6,and 3,respectively,in the lump coal group,and 22,8,and 3,respectively,in the biomass group.Even though the promotion of clean coal has led to impressive environmental and health benefits,the efficiencies are still limited.More environmental-friendly energy sources must be promoted in the rural regions of China.

China’s Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision

China’s energy system requires a thorough transformation to achieve carbon neutrality.Here,leveraging the highly acclaimed the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System model of China(China TIMES)that takes energy,the environment,and the economy into consideration,four carbon-neutral scenarios are proposed and compared for different emission peak times and carbon emissions in 2050.The results show that China’s carbon emissions will peak at 10.3–10.4 Gt between 2025 and 2030.In 2050,renewables will account for 60%of total energy consumption(calorific value calculation)and 90%of total electricity generation,and the electrification rate will be close to 60%.The energy transition will bring sustained air quality improvement,with an 85%reduction in local air pollutants in 2050 compared with 2020 levels,and an early emission peak will yield more near-term benefits.Early peak attainment requires the extensive deployment of renewables over the next decade and an accelerated phasing out of coal after 2025.However,it will bring benefits such as obtaining better air quality sooner,reducing cumulative CO_(2) emissions,and buying more time for other sectors to transition.The pressure for more ambitious emission reductions in 2050 can be transmitted to the near future,affecting renewable energy development,energy service demand,and welfare losses.

The role of capital deepening in China's energy transition

This paper provides a theoretical model to explain the causality between China's energy transition and capital deepening found by the empirical study.We prove that in the equilibrium,China's energy transition is endogenously determined by capital deepening due to the homogeneity of electricity and the monopolistic competition features of China's electricity market.Price effect,which is the effect of change in relative factor price,will affect energy transition only if the policy intervenes electricity price in terms of the primary sources from which it is generated.We propose that investment can promote energy transition by stimulating capital deepening which is biased to clean energy development.In this regard,our paper provides a new way of thinking for other developing countries to design an effective energy transition policy.

Supply-Side Solutions to China's Energy Transition

Compared with the first two energy transitions in human history, the current third energy transition is characterized by the changing concepts of development. Considering its energy mix dominated by fossil fuels, China is faced with a daunting task of transition. This paper discusses the following policy recommendations on China＇s energy transition, including building a renewables-friendly electric power system, developing smart grids and electric vehicles, promoting cross-regional electric power transactions, encouraging financial innovation, and creating new energy industry investment funds to broaden financing channels and diversify investment entities.

The Impacts of Global Energy Transition on Middle East Politics

Due to the symbiotic relations between oil and the contemporary Middle East, a global energy transition is bound to affect the Middle East's international status and the power structure among its countries. The power gap between rich and poor countries will widen, and the “big politics of small states” in countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may become more prominent. As economic development has become the top priority of national strategies, many hot spots in the Middle East have cooled down as relations between rival countries have eased and there are even signs of multilateral economic cooperation. Meanwhile, there are signs of vicious economic competition among related countries. With the decline of the Middle East's global importance, the United States and Europe are moving further away while the interdependence between Asia and the Middle East is increasing. Reforms to tackle the energy transition in the Middle East are a race against time, difficult, and uncertain, but the signs so far are positive.

Fiscal and Tax Policy Research on Promoting Energy Transition in China under the"Dual Carbon"Goal

The"Dual Carbon"Goal is one of the critical strategic tasks in China's new stage of development,and fiscal and tax policies play an essential role in promoting the"dual carbon target"process.Currently,China's fiscal and taxation policies to encourage the realization of the"dual carbon"target are faced with problems such as the lack of budgetary and tax regulation means and the lack of investment in the energy conservation industry.Throughout the mature experience of Britain,the United States,Japan,and other countries,although different,they all chose to levy carbon tax and tax incentives as the path to promote energy transformation.To further encourage energy conversion,China can choose to establish a carbon tax mechanism and promote and improve low-carbon preferential policies and other diversified fiscal and tax policies.

A Synthesis of Energy Transition Policies in Finland and China

Since 2017,Finland and China have been developing a future-oriented partnership based on mutual economic and business interests.The starting point for this work is the recognition of significant differences in size,culture,and political as well as economic systems between the two sides.The Sino-Finnish cooperation in energy transition can provide a good example of mutually beneficial partnership where countries complement each other in terms of knowhow and resources.This paper brings together the main findings from the policy study on energy transition in Finland and China.It aims to identify potential policy initiatives for expanding Sino-Finnish cooperation towards green growth.

Capacity Market Mechanism Design,Considering Network Optimization and Energy Transition

The coordination of enrgy transition,fixed cost recovery,and sufficient generation supply leads to a new challenge for a traditional capacity market mechanism.Moreover,in order to better match network expansion at the same time,it is crucial to redesign the capacity market mechanism considering system topology.In this paper,a novel capacity market mechanism is proposed considering spot market operations,network expansion,and energy transition,which can minimize the total cost of capacity investment,network expansion,and generation operations,while satisfying the energy transition constraints and topology circumstances.Specifically,the capacity market mechanism co-ordinated with spot market operations is illustrated,in which the energy transition and network constraints are embedded.Then,a bi-level optimization model is established where the trade organizers minimize the total cost of both investment and operations,subject to the spot power market simultaneously minimizing the local dispatching costs.The numerical results of a test system show that more economical capacity portfolios can be obtained by constructing reasonable transmission lines,thereby obtaining a more optimal market cost.A detailed multi-scenario simulation is further analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed market mechanism.

Expert perspective on technological choice for cooking energy transition in Nepal

Solid biomass dominates as the primary source of cooking energy,especially in rural households of Nepal.The use of solid biomass has a detrimental effect on health,exacerbates the burden of biomass collection,and hampers access to clean energy.Understanding the factors influencing the choice of modern cooking fuels is crucial to improving energy security and resilience and easing the transition to clean fuels.This study evaluates technological choices for the transition in cooking energy from the perspective of experts working in the government,non-government,and academia sectors.A structured questionnaire survey was prepared with five criteria and nine cooking technology options.Fifty-one experts responded to the survey,and their responses were analyzed using the analytical hierarchy process.The study reveals that efficiency and capital cost are the primary criteria for selecting cooking technology.The most suitable clean cooking technology is an induction stove followed by a hot plate,while the least preferred technology is a Bayupankhi stove followed by two-pothole mud improved cooking stoves.To ensure the robustness of the method,sensitivity analysis was performed on the two primary criteria efficiency and capital cost of the cooking technology.The analysis revealed robust and consistent rankings of technologies.This study should help create a conducive environment for relevant stakeholders and policymakers to formulate and implement relevant policies and strategies to accelerate the cooking energy transition in Nepal.

Role of circular economy,energy transition,environmental policy stringency,and supply chain pressure on CO_(2)emissions in emerging economies

This paper investigates the effect of the circular economy on CO_(2)emissions growth by considering the role of energy transition,climate policy stringency,industrialization,and supply chain pressure from 1997 to 2020 using panel quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lags(QARDL)and the panel PMG.We employ cointegration association in the long run among the variables,and the results of the two models confirm this.Findings reveal that circular economy and climate policy stringency significantly negatively impact carbon emissions.On the other hand,the energy transition,industrialization,and supply chain pressures are crucial to determining CO_(2)emissions in the short and long run.The finding further explores that municipal waste generation recycling is considerable at the mean and upper 90th quantiles than the lower quantile.Therefore,the empirical results of the current study provide acumens for policymakers of advanced economies and emerging markets to maintain the balance among circular economy,energy transition,environmental policy stringency,and supply chain pressure for reducing CO_(2)emissions without halting economic growth and sustainable development.Furthermore,practical implications are reported through the lens of carbon neutrality and structural changes.

Analysis of hydrogen supply and demand in China's energy transition towards carbon neutrality

The role of hydrogen in the transition to carbon-neutral energy systems will be influenced by key factors such as carbon neutrality pathways,hydrogen production technology costs,and hydrogen transportation costs.Existing studies have not comprehensively analyzed and compared the impact of these key factors on the development of hydrogen supply and demand under China's carbon neutrality pathways.This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model(GCAM)with an upgraded hydrogen module to evaluate the development potential of China's hydrogen industry,considering various carbon neutrality pathways as well as hydrogen production and transportation costs.The findings indicate that,by 2050,hydrogen could account for 8%-14%of final energy,averting 1.0-1.7 Bt of carbon emissions annually at an average mitigation cost of 85-183 USD t^(-1) CO_(2).The total hydrogen production is projected to reach 75-135 Mt,with 34%-56%from renewable energy electrolysis and about 15%-29%from fossil fuel-based CCS.On a sectoral level,by 2050,the hydrogen demand in the industrial and transportation sectors is expected to reach 37-63 Mt and 30-42 Mt,with a potential reduction of about 0.6-0.9 BtCO_(2) and 0.5-0.6 BtCO_(2).The share of hydrogen in the final energy of the steel and chemical sectors is estimated to be 9%-19%and 17%-25%,collectively accounting for 36%-42%of total hydrogen demand and 46%-50%of total emission reduction potential.Realizing hydrogen's emission reduction potential relies on the rapid development of hydrogen production,transportation,and utilization technologies.Firstly,the development of on-site electrolysis for hydrogen production and early deployment of industrial hydrogen applications should be prioritized to stimulate overall growth of hydrogen industry and cost reduction.Secondly,vigorous development of renewable energy electrolysis and hydrogen end-use technologies like fuel cells should be pursued,along with the demonstration and promotion of hydrogen transportation technologies.Lastly,further advancement of carbon market mechanisms is essential to support the widespread adoption of hydrogen technologies.

Significance of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 on China's energy transition pathway: A multi-model comparison analysis

China has proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Although previous studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways in China,the diversity observed in these studies in terms of model construction and parameter setting has led to inconsistent conclusions on some key issues,such as energy transition.This study employs a multi-model comparison method to examine the significance of China's carbon neutrality target on its energy systems by assessing 67 carbon neutrality scenarios in China that are collected from the ADVANCE database,and identifying the differences between energy transition pathways under BEF60 scenarios(i.e.scenarios realising carbon neutrality by 2060)and AFT60 scenarios(i.e.scenarios realising carbon neutrality after 2060).Results show that China needs a larger deployment of low-carbon electricity,a higher electrification rate and more carbon sequestration amount under BEF60 scenarios than those under AFT60 scenarios.Meanwhile,the magnitude of the difference between the two categories of scenarios varies significantly in terms of different outcome indicators.Those that present significant disparities include the deployment scale of solar power(increasing by 160%),the electrification rate of the building sector(increasing by 27%)and the carbon sequestration amount of biomass power with carbon capture and storage(increasing by 380%).In addition,this study selects six indicators to present the technological and economic characteristics of various energy systems of China at the point of net-zero emissions.Exploring the relationships between characteristics,this research identifies the common features among various net-zero energy systems.A great share of non-biomass renewable power generation is always associated with a relatively high per capita energy use,implying that high renewables penetration may relax restrictions on energy consumption,which should be addressed for China when making efforts to promote energy transition.

Geopolitics of the energy transition

Geopolitics of energy transition has increasingly become the frontier and hot research area of world energy geography and global political science.Different historical periods are characterised by obvious differences in energy connotations,attributes,and geopolitical characteristics.In the new energy era,energy geopolitics becomes more diversified,complex,and comprehensive.In this paper,we compare the geopolitical characteristics of energy in the fossil fuel and renewable energy periods,and provide an overview of current study trends in new energy geopolitics.Recent research shows that the global energy transition will intensify the reconstruction of geopolitical patterns,change the relationship between geopolitical security and conflict dominated by traditional energy security,alter the role of different countries in global energy geopolitical games,reshape national energy relationships formed in the traditional oil and gas era.In addition,geopolitics will be affected by new energy technologies,availability of key rare materials,and energy cybersecurity measures.Despite considerable attention to this research topic,the likely geopolitical impact of energy transition remains uncertain,and there is still room for the development and improvement of the theoretical framework,technical methods,and research perspective.Looking forward to the future,the research into geopolitics of energy transition urgently needs to strengthen its theoretical basis and rely on the scientific and quantitative methods.The practical conclusions of the research into geopolitics of energy transition should strengthen major national energy security decisions,explore the geographical effect of energy transition,and determine the impact of energy transition on energy security.Research into geopolitics of energy transition should be carried out taking into account international academic frontiers such as climate change,“carbon peak”and“carbon neutral”goals,and global energy governance,to enrich the research perspective of world energy geography.

Off-farm income promotes energy transition in the Pan-Third Pole cross-national region

The Pan-Third Pole region comprises multiple nations affected by climate vulnerability and energy inequality,wherein promoting energy transitions in rural households would provide a path to combat climate change.Identifying the factors that drive rural household energy consumption and the transition is important.This study performed a micro-survey of 1060 rural households in five countries in the Pan-Third Pole region and empirically analyzed the relationships between off-farm income,energy consumption,and energy transitions.The off-farm income of rural households was found to have a significantly positive effect(p<0.01)on energy expenditure,indicating that energy expenditure increased with increasing off-farm income.Off-farm income has a significantly positive effect(p<0.01)on the proportion of commercial energy but a significantly negative effect on the proportion of noncommercial energy.These results indicate that increasing off-farm income can adjust the energy consumption structure of rural households.Furthermore,a robustness check by substituting independent variables,instrumental variable method(IV),and propensity score matching method(PSM)provided strong evidence to prove the robustness of the results.The heterogeneity analysis showed that the effects of off-farm income on energy expenditure and transitions differed among countries,off-farm income had no significant impact on energy expenditure in Cambodia and Myanmar,but it worked for China,Nepal,and Thailand.Finally,policy implications are proposed to promote energy transition in the Pan-Third pole region:providing more full-time or part-time off-farm employment opportunities,employment assistance or skill training by local governments;increasing the pace of infrastructure construction to solve energy inaccessibility;multiple measures to promote the education and environmental knowledge.

Towards carbon neutrality and China's 14th Five-Year Plan: Clean energy transition, sustainable urban development, and investment priorities

China's 14th Five-Year Plan,for the period 2021e25,presents a real opportunity for China to link its longterm climate goals with its short-to medium-term social and economic development plans.China's recent commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 has set a clear direction for its economy,but requires ratcheting up ambition on its near-term climate policy.Against this background,this paper discusses major action areas for China's 14th Five-Year Plan after COVID-19,especially focusing on three aspects:the energy transition,a new type of sustainable urban development,and investment priorities.China's role in the world is now of a magnitude that makes its actions in the immediate future critical to how the world goes forward.This decade,2021e2030,is of fundamental importance to human history.If society locks in dirty and high-carbon capital,it raises profound risks of irreversible damage to the world's climate.It is crucial for China to peak its emissions in the 14th Five-Year Plan(by 2025),making the transition earlier and cheaper,enhancing its international competitiveness in growing new markets and setting a strong example for the world.The benefits for China and the world as a whole could be immense.

Perspectives on Future Power System Control Centers for Energy Transition

Today's power systems are seeing a paradigm shift under the energy transition,sparkled by the electrification of demand,digitalisation of systems,and an increasing share of decarbonated power generation.Most of these changes have a direct impact on their control centers,forcing them to handle weather-based energy resources,new interconnections with neighbouring transmission networks,more markets,active distribution networks,micro-grids,and greater amounts of available data.Unfortunately,these changes have translated during the past decade to small,incremental changes,mostly centered on hardware,software,and human factors.We assert that more transformative changes are needed,especially regarding human-centered design approaches,to enable control room operators to manage the future power system.This paper discusses the evolution of operators towards continuous operation planners,monitoring complex time horizons thanks to adequate real-time automation.Reviewing upcoming challenges as well as emerging technologies for power systems,we present our vision of a new evolutionary architecture for control centers,both at backend and frontend levels.We propose a unified hypervision scheme based on structured decision-making concepts,providing operators with proactive,collaborative,and effective decision support.

Smart catalytic materials for energy transition

Energy transition,and the related chemistry transition due to their strong nexus,is creating a major worldwide change in the current production system,driven initially by social and environmental pressures(cleaner production,reduced greenhouse gas emissions),but today instead is pushed by economic(renewable energy sources are becoming progressively the more economic energy form)and geopolitical(energy security)motivations.Oil and natural gases are the building blocks of the current refinery and(petro)chemistry,but going beyond fossil fuels is the challenge associated with this transition.This has also major implications on the technologies and processes actually in use,further pushed from another emerging direction associated with the progressive change from centralized to delocalized productions,for a better link with the territory and the local resources.The combined effect of these two emerging directions determines a radical change in the energy and chemical production systems,with major technological implications.Current process technologies in the area of chemical and fuel production cannot just be adapted,they need to be fully redesigned(also in terms of concepts,materials,engineering)to address the new challenges of using renewable energy sources in delocalized productions(small‐scale production at the regional level using local resources and in strong symbiosis to other local productions).