Historical review and reflections on the participation of acupuncture and moxibustion in the treatment of epidemics in the People’s Republic of China (from 1950 until now)

Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, both the Communist Party and the government have placed great emphasis on the advancement of traditional Chinese medicine. Acupuncture and moxibustion have been actively involved in combating major epidemics such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and COVID-19. This article conducts a historical review of these three significant cases to elucidate how the acupuncture community has effectively utilized its unique advantages and characteristics through theoretical discussions, clinical practices, experimental research, as well as receiving administrative leadership and political support from the Communist Party of China and government. We provide an objective evaluation of their effectiveness while summarizing historical experiences to serve as a reference for future utilization of acupuncture and moxibustion therapy in epidemic relief efforts. Additionally, propose four suggestions: strengthening Party leadership and enhancing political support;timely summarization of experiences to establish programs and systems;deepening scientific research by integrating experimental findings with clinical practice;focusing on public awareness campaigns and education to solidify grassroots foundations.

Reacting to Epidemics:The Innovative Imperial Public Health System during the Late Northern Song Dynasty

Song China was a period in which China experienced a great increase in its population.Concurrently,the Song dynasty also experienced a rise in the frequency of epidemics and two major wars with the Western Xia and Liao dynasties during the 1000s and 1040s.The consequences of these changes were exacerbated by the increased geographical mobility of certain social groups such as traders and examinees attending civil service examinations.Thus,casualties of wars,epidemics,or disease,especially of people whose families were far away and could not care for them were left without care and“their corpses often lay bare along the roads.”This new social environment created a need for general relief.The Northern Song government(960-1127 CE),especially during the reign of Emperor Huizong,established an innovative public health system to address this issue.The public health system included poorhouses,public hospitals,and pauper’s cemeteries.The first were more of charity organizations,whereas the latter two promoted public health by providing medical services for the poor and burial for those that nobody cared for.In terms of rationale behind these institutions,on the one hand,they constituted an attempt to get the poor and homeless off the streets while providing them relief or burial.On the other hand,it seems that Huizong’s deep concern with medicine propelled him to design and implement a comprehensive public health system oriented to prevent contagion and outbreak of epidemics.This article depicts the background,the organization,and the functions of the system.The article also discusses the conditions and reasons that gave rise to such a unique undertaking by the Northern Song government.

AI-Based Intelligent Model to Predict Epidemics Using Machine Learning Technique

The immediate international spread of severe acute respiratory syn-drome revealed the potential threat of infectious diseases in a closely integrated and interdependent world.When an outbreak occurs,each country must have a well-coordinated and preventative plan to address the situation.Information and Communication Technologies have provided innovative approaches to dealing with numerous facets of daily living.Although intelligent devices and applica-tions have become a vital part of our everyday lives,smart gadgets have also led to several physical and psychological health problems in modern society.Here,we used an artificial intelligence AI-based system for disease prediction using an Artificial Neural Network(ANN).The ANN improved the regularization of the classification model,hence increasing its accuracy.The unconstrained opti-mization model reduced the classifier’s cost function to obtain the lowest possible cost.To verify the performance of the intelligent system,we compared the out-comes of the suggested scheme with the results of previously proposed models.The proposed intelligent system achieved an accuracy of 0.89,and the miss rate 0.11 was higher than in previously proposed models.

Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.

Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

Effect of Rice Sowing Date on Occurrence of Small Brown Planthopper and Epidemics of Planthopper-Transmitted Rice Stripe Viral Disease

To understand the relationship between rice sowing date and occurrence of the rice small brown planthopper （SBPH） Laodelphax striatellus Fallen and the epidemics of the planthopper-transmitted rice stripe viral （RSV） disease, four sowing dates of rice were evaluated in 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the peak density of SBPH and RSV incidence in the nursery and in the transplanted field decreased with the delay of sowing date in single crop of japonica rice in north Zhejiang Province of China. The relationship between seedling RSV incidence at the end of the nursery trial with sowing date was well described by Weibull equation. The area under the curve of population dynamics （AUCPD or planthopper-day accumulation） or the peak density of the planthopper in the nursery could be summarized by a logistic equation. RSV incidence in the transplanted fields could be characterized quantitatively by a multivariate regression equation, including the variables of sowing date, peak density of the vector, and RSV incidence at the end of the nursery trial. That the descriptive model excluded the AUCPD in transplanted field implies that this variable is not necessary in forecasting disease epidemics in the field. The 2-year experiments sufficiently indicated that suitable sowing of rice could be used as one of the effective measures to control the vector population and therefore the planthopper-transmitted RSV on a larger scale. The optimal sowing date for the single-cropped transplanted japonica rice is recommended from late May to early June in north Zhejiang, China.

Hepatocellular carcinoma and industrial epidemics

Worldwide,the burden of the non viral causes of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) is usually underestimated.Clearly industrial goods,tobacco,alcohol and processed foods are the agents of new epidemics in modern times which far outscore the burden of infectious agents on morbidity and mortality.Smoking,a dose-related contributing factor for HCC,receives too little attention in clinical practice.In France,tobacco,hepatitis B and C virus and alcohol are the main risk factors for HCC mortality(33%,31% and 26%,respectively).In developing countries,where tobacco consumption is dramatically increasing,this epidemic may soon surpass hepatitis B.Obesity and diabetes are the contributing factors too.The role of industrial processed foods in the increase of the prevalence of obesity and diabetes cannot be ignored.

Understanding the Treatment of COVID-19 and other Epidemics in Traditional Chinese Medicine

Epidemics spread quickly and are highly contagious.And there has been a profound understanding of etiology,pathogenesis,prevention,and treatment of these diseases in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM).Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)falls into the category of“epidemic dampness”,and the core pathogenesis is that latency of externally-contracted dampness turbidity and epidemic toxin in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace provokes Shaoyang ministerial fire and causes concomitant attack of external and internal pathogens,resulting in wood fire tormenting metal and the upward rushing of dampness fire(toxin),ultimately leading to a syndrome of epidemic toxin blocking the lung.Throughout the treatment of COVID-19,Professor Shiyun Yan uses the“harmonizing”method and sticks to the basic principles of“protecting middle qi,pectoral qi and yin fluid”to consolidate the root,dispersing externally and clearing internally and using in combination drugs cold and warm in property.The specific treatment approaches include ventilating lung and expelling pathogens,clearing heat and removing the toxin,tonifying qi and nourishing yin,activating blood and resolving stasis,resolving dampness,and dredging collaterals,to prevent the patient’s condition from getting worse and save the dying.

Understanding the Treatment of COVID-19 and other Epidemics in Traditional Chinese Medicine

Epidemics spread quickly and are highly contagious.And there has been a profound understanding of etiology,pathogenesis,prevention,and treatment of these diseases in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM).Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID‑19)falls into the category of“epidemic dampness”,and the core pathogenesis is that latency of externally‑contracted dampness turbidity and epidemic toxin in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace provokes Shaoyang ministerial fire and causes concomitant attack of external and internal pathogens,resulting in wood fire tormenting metal and the upward rushing of dampness fire(toxin),ultimately leading to a syndrome of epidemic toxin blocking the lung.Throughout the treatment of COVID‑19,Professor Shiyun Yan uses the“harmonizing”method and sticks to the basic principles of“protecting middle qi,pectoral qi and yin fluid”to consolidate the root,dispersing externally and clearing internally and using in combination drugs cold and warm in property.The specific treatment approaches include ventilating lung and expelling pathogens,clearing heat and removing the toxin,tonifying qi and nourishing yin,activating blood and resolving stasis,resolving dampness,and dredging collaterals,to prevent the patient’s condition from getting worse and save the dying.

Computation, Modeling, and Simulation of HIV-AIDS Epidemics with Vaccination

The principles of the HIV-AIDS epidemics are established based on the subpopulation 1) Susceptible;2) HIV-infected;3) AIDS-infected;4) Immunized. The immunized subset of the population in this paper is the total individuals who were infected and cured or immunized by vaccination. The immunized group can be identified by removing individuals from the susceptible group. A general mathematical model is developed for HIV-AIDS epidemics with Vaccination to understand the spread of the virus throughout the population. Particularly we use numerical simulation with some values of parameters to predict the number of infected individuals during a certain period in a population and the effect of vaccine to reduce infected group and increase the number of immunized individuals. Further, we expand the research to special cases with no vaccinations. A special case is when the removal subset of the population is empty, or there is no recovery in this epidemic. We also can consider the total infected number is equal to the sum of the HIV infected and the number of AIDS infected. As a result, one can reduce four-stage HIV-AIDS investigation to a three-stage of SIR. With this introduction and modification, the numerical simulation can be developed the Monte Carlo simulation method in SIR case to verify the Validity of the HIV-AIDS model.

Emerging Epidemics

THIS summer marked the fourth Ebola outbreak in Uganda since 2000. The Ebola virus, which was discovered in the Republic of Congo in 1976, is known for hemorrhagic fevers that rapidly and violently wreak havoc on the human body. By the time Uganda＇s Ministry of Health （MOH） declared in August the outbreak＂under control,＂ 16 people had died from exposure.

Analysis and Countermeasures of Intercepted Exotic Weed Epidemics from Wool in Jiangsu Ports

The situation of intercepted weeds from wooI in Jiangsu port during 2004 to 2012 was introduced in this paper, and the corresponding countermeasures were then proposed. The resuIts showed that a total of 38 famiIies, 138 genera, 268 species and 13 868 species-times of weeds were intercepted, incIuding 3 famiIies, 11 genera, 20 species and 2 094 species-times of quarantine weeds. The weeds were intercepted from the wooI introduced from 19 countries and regions, among which, Australia had the highest species-times, accounting for 71.0% of the total. Bases on the analysis of interception situation of weeds, some countermeasures were pro-posed from the perspectives of risk assessment, quarantine supervision, quarantine treatment and epidemic surveiI ance, providing some reference for estabIishing a perfect system for preventing the invasion of exotic weeds.

A cellular automata model of epidemics of a heterogeneous susceptibility

In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide the susceptible population into three groups according to the immunity of each individual based on the classical susceptible-infectedremoved （SIR） epidemic models, and consider the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors that have not an incubation period to become infectious. We test the local stability and instability of the disease-free equilibrium by the spectrum radii of Jacobian. The simulation shows that the structure of the nearest neighbour size of the cell （or the degree of the scale-free networks） plays a very important role in the spread properties of infectious disease. The positive equilibrium of the infections versus the neighbour size follows the third power law if an endemic equilibrium point exists. Finally, we analyse the feature of the infection waves for the homogeneity and heterogeneous cases respectively.

Stochastic Lattice gas Cellular Automata Model for Epidemics

The aim of this study was to develop and explore a stochastic lattice gas cellular automata （LGCA） model for epidemics. A computer program was development in order to implement the model. An irregular grid of cells was used. A susceptible-infected-recovered （SIR） scheme was represented. Stochasticity was generated by Monte Carlo method. Dynamics of model was explored by numerical simulations. Model achieves to represent the typical SIR prevalence curve. Performed simulations also show how infection, mobility and distribution of infected individuals may influence the dynamics of propagation. This simple theoretical model might be a basis for developing more realistic designs.

What we have learnt from the SARS epidemics in China's Mainland?

This article provides an overview of the severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS)epidemics in China's Mainland and of what we have learned since the outbreak.The epidemics spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two regions:first in Guangdong Province,and about 3 months later in Beijing and its surrounding areas.The resulting case fatality ratio of 6.4%was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries and regions,partly due to younger-aged patients and a higher proportion of community-acquired infections.Strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response were most important for controlling SARS.The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited.Many recovered patients suffered from avascular osteonecrosis,as a consequence of corticosteroid usage during their infection.The SARS epidemic provided valuable experience and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases,and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system.Additionally,the epidemic has substantially improved infrastructures,surveillance systems,and capacity to response to health emergencies.In particular,a comprehensive nationwide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

Exploring individuals’ effective preventive measures against epidemics through reinforcement learning

Individuals’ preventive measures,as an effective way to suppress epidemic transmission and to protect themselves from infection,have attracted much academic concern,especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.In this paper,a reinforcement learning-based model is proposed to explore individuals’ effective preventive measures against epidemics.Through extensive simulations,we find that the cost of preventive measures influences the epidemic transmission process significantly.The infection scale increases as the cost of preventive measures grows,which means that the government needs to provide preventive measures with low cost to suppress the epidemic transmission.In addition,the effective preventive measures vary from individual to individual according to the social contacts.Individuals who contact with others frequently in daily life are highly recommended to take strict preventive measures to protect themselves from infection,while those who have little social contacts do not need to take any measures considering the inevitable cost.Our research contributes to exploring the effective measures for individuals,which can provide the government and individuals useful suggestions in response to epidemics.

A Preliminary Study on Spatial Spread Risk of Epidemics by Analyzing the Urban Subway Mobility Data

The prevention and treatment of epidemic is always an urgent problem faced by the human being. Due to the special space structure, huge passenger flow and great people mobility, the subway lines have become the areas with high epidemic transmission risks. However, there is no recent study related to epidemic transmission in the subway network on urban-scale. In this article, from the perspective of big data, we study the transmission risk of epidemic in Beijing subway network by using urban subway mobility data. By reintegrating and mining the urban subway mobility data, we preliminary assess the transmission risk in the subway lines from the passenger behaviors, station features, route features and individual case on the basis of subway network structure. This study has certain practical significance for the early stage of epidemic tracking and prevention.

Zika Virus Controversies: Epidemics as a Legacy of Mega Events?

The current knowledge of the Zika Virus epidemic clearly lacks a comprehensive understanding of its determinants and clinical outcomes. Until recently regarded as a “simple” dengue-like infection, it nowadays turned into a real challenge to Public Health around the world. The Zika Epidemic shows a quick spread, affects unprepared health systems, and presents with severe neurological complications of newborns—a concrete threat to pregnancies. This re-emerging infectious disease is a source of deep doubts and harsh debates regarding Public Health and even bioethical issues. Several doubts still remain on how to deal with the various possible transmission ways of the disease, the surge of a generation of thousands of microcephalic newborns (and questions on how to handle them within limited health systems), and severe malformations concentrated so far in Northeastern Brazil. Finally, a debate is raised about how the “Endemic State” of Brazil, deeply merged in a health care crisis for almost 40 years now, currently confronts 3 current epidemics of the arboviruses Dengue, Chikungunya and now Zika, all associated with a lack of basic sanitation. Brazil must deal with these biological threats in the context of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games, since Chikungunya has probably been brought to Brazil during the FIFA Soccer World Cup (2014) and Zika Virus spread is associated with the Soccer Confederations Cup (2013).

Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1 - 3 Million Lives Worldwide

Background: A large percentage of deaths in an epidemic or pandemic can be due to overshoot of population (herd) immunity, either from the initial peak or from planned or unplanned exit from lockdown or social distancing conditions. Objectives: We study partial unlock or reopening interaction with seasonal effects in a managed epidemic to quantify overshoot effects on small and large unlock steps and discover robust strategies for reducing overshoot. Methods: We simulate partial unlock of social distancing for epidemics over a range of replication factor, immunity duration and seasonality factor for strategies targeting immunity thresholds using overshoot optimization. Results: Seasonality change must be taken into account as one of the steps in an easing sequence, and a two-step unlock, including seasonal effects, minimizes overshoot and deaths. It may cause undershoot, which causes rebounds and assists survival of the pathogen. Conclusions: Partial easing levels, even low levels for economic relief while waiting on a vaccine, have population immunity thresholds based on the reduced replication rates and may experience overshoot as well. We further find a two-step strategy remains highly sensitive to variations in case ratio, replication factor, seasonality and timing. We demonstrate a three or more step strategy is more robust, and conclude that the best possible approach minimizes deaths under a range of likely actual conditions which include public response.

Cinnamomum camphora: a long history for epidemics control

Camphor(C_(10)H_(16)O)is a white crystalline solid exist in enantiomeric form R and S camphor.It is a terpenoid obtained from turpentine oil.Synthetically it is synthesized by catalytic process as alpha pinene.Naturally camphor is obtained by steam distillation of woods of Cinnamomum camphora tree,also known as Camphor tree,camphor laure and camphor wood.Camphor has many pharmacological properties.It acts as antiviral,anticancerous,antimicrobial,insecticidal,anticoccidial,anti-nociceptive and antitussive drug.In addition,it can be used as skin penetrating enhancer.Camphor gives a soothing and cooling effect,which helps to reduce pain.The reason behind its soothing effect is camphor act as a counter-irritant by activating heat sensitive transient receptor potential vanilloid subtype 1 and transient receptor potential vanilloid subtype 3 receptors and inhibits the transient receptor potential melastatin-subfamily member 8 receptor.As a result,these receptors provide a sensation of scalding heat and pain(nociception)and could be used to treat neuropathic pain associated with multiple sclerosis,chemotherapy,or amputation,as well as pain associated with the inflammatory response of damaged tissue such as in osteoarthritis.Camphor has a history of epidemics cure.During leishmaniosis(kala-azar)pandemic in 14th century,camphor was used as fumigant to control the spread of plague in European countries.In 19th century when cholera,small pox and influenza spreads,camphor was used as mothballs in Indian subcontinent as a(cough reliever)agent.During 18th century Russian influenza“flu pandemic”founder of Homeopathy Hahnemann in 1831,published his research work on camphor and suggested camphor as a“divine remedy”for influenza given in extremely small doses.In the same year,several companies launched to sell menthol rub as natural rub ointment consisting camphor as prevention measures for spread of influenza.As the recent epidemic of COVID-19 arises,prevention and control of spread of disease is an alarming issue.This article covered the glimpse of uses and importance of camphor in the history of epidemic cure.